By Andy Lack

2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic Breakdown: Detroit Golf Club

The Basics 

• Course: Detroit Golf Club
• Location: Detroit, Michigan
• Designer: Donald Ross (1916)
• Length: Par 72; 7,370 yards
• Hazards: Water comes into play on one hole
• Fairways: Bent-grass with Poa Annua measuring 34 yards wide
• Rough: Blue-grass mix (4 inches)
• Greens: Poa Annua and Bent-grass, running 10.5 on the stimp

The Rocket Mortgage Classic was first held in 2019 at Detroit Golf Club in Detroit, Michigan. The tournament replaced the Quicken Loans National on the schedule and is the first event ever to be held completely in the Detroit city limits. The Rocket Mortgage has a brief but fascinating history. In its inaugural year, Nate Lashley came out of absolutely nowhere to triumph at the massive price of 300/1. It was only Lashley’s second PGA Tour top-10 finish in his career, and as a late entrant into the field, he was not even on the DraftKings slate. The polar opposite occurred in the following year as Bryson DeChambeau triumphed as the tournament favorite at 7/1. DeChambeau won the tournament via his typical bomb-and-gauge approach, losing strokes on approach but gaining 14.5 strokes off the tee and putting. The following two years followed a similar trajectory, as Cameron Davis won as a 150/1 longshot and Tony Finau triumphed as one of the tournament favorites. If history does in fact repeat itself, we are on schedule for another surprise winner farther down the board.

Detroit Golf Club is a classic Donald Ross design, and the routing that the Rocket Mortgage uses for the tournament is actually a composite course with 17 holes from the North course and one hole from the South course. Both the North and South are original Ross creations. This will be nothing new for regular readers, but if I was to boil down Ross’ design ethos, I would start with his ability to use the natural ground contours to create interesting, turtleback green complexes. I would not say that anything about Detroit Golf Club is on the severe side when it comes to Ross, and the course would have to play much firmer and faster for us to get the full Ross experience. You’ll see exactly what I’m talking about when we return to Pinehurst No. 2 for the 2024 U.S. Open. The two other regular PGA Tour courses that we see often are Sedgefield (host of the Wyndham Championship) and East Lake (host of the Tour Championship.)

Detroit Golf Club is your standard classical, tree-lined course. Water only comes into play on the par-four 14th. Of the other PGA Tour Bent-grass birdie-fests like the 3M Open and John Deere Classic, the Rocket Mortgage Classic is certainly home to the best golf course. The greens still feature some back-to-front slopes and there are a few interesting run-off and collection areas. As previously alluded to, the course never really plays firm enough for us to get the true intent of the design, as the greens are generally very receptive depending on rainfall. We get that same 80% Poa, 20% Bent-grass that we see often on the East Coast, but these greens play far more like Bent-grass than they do a West Coast Poa.

Last year, the course ranked 31st out of 40 courses on the PGA Tour in scoring average, and all four years it has ranked inside the top 10 easiest courses on Tour. The layout itself is a standard par 72 with four par fives and four par fours. Only four of the 10 par fours measure over 450 yards, and only one measures over 475 yards. Every single hole on the course features over a 12% birdie rate, but unlike a TPC Twin Cities, there is far less blowup potential here. Eight of the 18 holes feature over a 10% bogey rate, and only two holes feature over a 20% bogey rate. I remember watching Cam Davis on Sunday in 2022 hit some incredible loose drives down the stretch, and there was not one scenario where I felt like he was going to be truly penalized. That is unfortunately the nature of this golf course under receptive conditions. It fails to penalize poor shots and thus does not do the best job of separating elite tee-to-green play from standard tee-to-green play. This is essentially how we would define a putting contest, which the statistics do tend to back up as well.

Overall, I certainly go back and forth on whether I enjoy tournaments like this that are so dependent on putting for DraftKings purposes. Your model may say that a guy at 20% ownership is a way better ball-striker than the player at 5%, but the better ball-striker is far less likely to reap the true benefits of his ball-striking advantage at Detroit Golf Club than he is at Torrey Pines. Similarly, a player who is a poor ball-striker is a far less behind the eight-ball at Detroit Golf Club than he is at Torrey. It’s simply important to remember that tournaments like this are far more variable and less easy to predict, which actually should play into our hands in DraftKings if we are willing to take some chances. Power off the tee and wedge play is undeniably important here, but at the end of the day, putting (the least predictable and sticky metric) is still the name of the game at Detroit Golf Club. Let’s dive into the numbers.

Stats 

• Off the Tee 
  • Last year, 13.3% of strokes gained at Detroit Golf Club came off the tee, which is well below the Tour average of 15.3%. That number falls even lower to 11.9% historically.
  • Last year, Detroit Golf Club ranked 36th out of 38 courses in strokes gained off the tee difficulty. It is absolutely one of the most straightforward courses off the tee on the PGA Tour.
  • It’s not that the rough isn’t thick here, but because the course is very short and the greens are so receptive, players can bomb and gauge this course. If players miss the fairway here, chances are that on a lot of holes, they will still have a wedge in that can easily be hacked out of this type of rough.
  • Detroit Golf Club has middle-of-the-road fairways in terms of width, ranking 23rd out of 38 courses. The penalty for missing is not overly severe, as the classic Ross design ranks 30th out of 38 courses in missed fairway penalty, 16th out of 38 courses in rough penalty, and 27th out of 38 courses in non-rough penalty.
  • Last year, Detroit Golf Club ranked 35th out of 38 courses in fraction of missed fairways that resulted in a penalty stroke, so again, there are basically no real hazards on this course. It’s very tough to implode or make big numbers here. Last year, Detroit Golf Club ranked 39th out of 40 courses in penalty strokes per round, and 32nd out of 40 courses in reloads per rounds. Each of the last three years, it has ranked inside the top two in fewest penalty strokes per round.
  • Here’s what Bryson had to say in 2020, “I think there’s a lot of bunkers that are around 290 yards, so hopefully I’ll be able to clear those and those out of play. So sorry Mr. Ross, but you know, it is what it is. I’m again trying to be the casino and give myself the best opportunity to win. Having a 9-iron into these par fives, it’s definitely nice to be able to attack par-five flags rather than kind of move away from them. There’s a couple holes where I can get it up close to the green and just chip it on there and make a putt. I’ve just got to keep hitting my driver good and getting more comfortable with the driver and if that happens, it’s going to be a fun week.” Not to give too much credit to Bryson, but that’s the strategy I would recommend to any players with above-average length.
  • Driving distance at Detroit Golf Club here is about 10 yards higher than Tour average, and the course isn’t even at altitude. Players are pulling driver often here, and it is not really a positional course a la Sedgefield. It’s going to be hot and humid this time of year in Detroit, and the ball is going to travel a long way. This is a very driver-heavy golf course that is asking to be taken advantage of.
  • Last year, Detroit Golf Club featured the third-longest distance of drives on par fours and par fives, and it ranked fifth out of 38 courses in average standard deviation of driving distance. Players do not need to really sacrifice a ton of accuracy to gain strokes off the tee here. This is primarily why I will be looking exclusively at distance when it comes to off-the-tee metrics this week. The longest players in the field are Brandon Matthews, Byeong-Hun An, Matthias Schmid, Trevor Cone, Kyle Westmoreland, Cameron Champ, Vincent Norrman, Will Gordon, Trey Mullinax, and Joseph Bramlett. 
  • It’s important to note that distance is far from a prerequisite to success at Detroit Golf Club. It’s far more of a luxury than a necessity. In 2019, seven of the top 12 players on the leaderboard lost to the field in driving distance. In 2020, when Bryson and Wolff finished first and second, Kevin Kisner, Ryan Armour, Adam Hadwin, Tyrrell Hatton, and Troy Merritt all still finished in the top 12 while losing strokes to the field in driving distance. 2022 told a similar story. For every Cam Davis, Joaquin Niemann, Brandon Hagy and Bubba Watson, there was a Kevin Kisner, Hank Lebioda, Troy Merritt, and Mark Anderson. Last year, Tony Finau, Taylor Pendrith, Cameron Young, and Wyndham Clark all found themselves in the top eight, but Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Matt Wallace, and Russell Henley were not far behind. I believe that distance is a big bonus on this course, but I would not say that players who really struggle in this area are completely behind the 8-ball. A lack of distance will just place some added pressure on mid- to short-iron play and putting.

• Approach 
  • Last year, 37.9% of strokes gained at Detroit Golf Club came on approach, which is well above the Tour average of 34.8%. That number falls historically to 34.6%.
  • Last year, Detroit Golf Club ranked 25th out of 38 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty. Each of the last four years it has ranked inside the top 10 in strokes gained approach.
  • Last year, Detroit Golf Club featured the seventh-highest greens-in-regulation percentage on the PGA Tour, and each of the last four years it has ranked inside the top seven easiest greens to hit on the PGA Tour.
  • The proximity buckets that ranked above average last year at Detroit Golf Club were inside 100 yards, 100-125, and 200 yards plus. 16.4% of approach shots last year came from inside 100 yards, which is well above the Tour average of 10.5%. 13.8% of approach shots came from 100-125 yards, which above the Tour average of 11.8%. 16.7% of strokes gained came from 125-150 yards, which is right around the Tour average of 17%. There was a much lower percentage of shots from 150-200 yards than Tour average, but interestingly enough, 27.4% of approach shots last year came from over 200 yards, which is above the Tour average of 22.9%. Detroit Golf Club is mainly a wedge course, but long-iron play is sneakily important here as well, as four par fours measure above 450 yards, two par threes measure above 200 yards, and at least three of the par fives are reachable in two shots. Players will have a ton of very short irons on this course and their fair share of long irons as well.
  • The best short-iron players in this field have been Collin Morikawa, Russell Knox, Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, Tom Hoge, Davis Riley, Chris Kirk, Tom Kim, Brian Stuard, and Zach Johnson.
  • The best long-iron players in this field have been Tom Hoge, Collin Morikawa, Justin Suh, Austin Eckroat, Tom Kim, Augusto Nunez, Cameron Davis, Luke List, Austin Smotherman, and Davis Riley.

• Around the Green 
  • Last year, 13.3% of strokes gained at Detroit Golf Club came around the green, which is right around its historical average, and slightly below Tour average.
  • Last year, Detroit Golf Club ranked 19th out of 38 courses in strokes gained around-the-green difficulty. It routinely ranks in the lower half of Tour courses in around-the-green difficulty.
  • Last year, Detroit Golf Club ranked 22nd out of 38 courses in around-the-green difficulty from the fairway, 12th out of 38 courses in around-the-green difficulty from the rough, and 23rd out of 38 courses in around-the-green difficulty from the bunkers.
  • Despite the fact that there is certainly some undulation to these greens, it’s tough to advocate for looking at around-the-green metrics on such an easy course with such a high greens-in-regulation percentage. Players who are needing to rely on their short games more than three or four times a round at Detroit Golf Club are likely nowhere near the top of the leaderboard.

• Putting 
  • Last year, 35.6% of strokes gained at Detroit Golf Club came with the flat-stick, which is right on par with the Tour average of 35.5%, and it falls below the Tour average of 40.1%.
  • Last year, Detroit Golf Club ranked 15th out of 38 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty and the hardest of the four major categories to gain strokes in at Detroit Golf Club is actually putting. Each of the four years it has been on the schedule, the Donald Ross design has ranked harder than Tour average in strokes gained putting difficulty.
  • Last year, Detroit Golf Club ranked 20th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty inside five feet, 19th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty from five to 15 feet, and 8th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty from greater than 15 feet.
  • Putting is undeniably an essential part of the formula here. In 2019, every single player in the top 20 on the leaderboard gained strokes putting. Lashley was fine from tee to green but unbelievable with the flat-stick. In 2020, the perception was that Bryson and Matthew Wolff dominated off the tee, but that’s not actually the story. The reason why Bryson and Wolff finished first-second that year is because they gained a combined 14 strokes putting on the field. Every single player in the top 12 gained over a stroke putting that year as well. There was no roadmap to a high finish in this tournament without having, at bare minimum, a good putting week. 2021 told a similar story. Only two guys in the top 25 lost strokes putting. Last year, only three players in the top 20 lost strokes putting, and every player in the top five gained over 3.5 strokes putting. Detroit Golf Club is not a Riviera or Torrey Pines that really separates the men from the boys from tee to green. The easiest way to create separation from the field at Detroit Golf Club is via a hot flat-stick. 
  • These are the same Bent/Poa blend of greens that we saw last week at TPC River Highlands. They certainly play more like Bent-grass than a West Coast Poa, and the best putters in this field on Bent/Poa greens have been Max Homa, Brendon Todd, Harris English, Justin Lower, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Seung-yul Noh, Justin Suh, Beau Hossler, Adam Svensson, and Austin Cook. 
  • Since players are going to have such a wealth of birdie opportunities inside 15 feet this week, I wanted to look at the best long-term putters from five to 15 feet. The best overall putters from this range have been Justin Suh, Sam Ryder, Justin Lower, Brendon Todd, Sepp Straka, Luke Donald, Max Homa, Augusto Nunez, Harry Hall, and Chad Ramey. 

• Scoring Stats 
  • This is unlikely to come as a shock, but there has been a large correlation between players that rated out highly in birdies or better gained entering the week, and success at Detroit Golf Club. This is one of the weeks where it is absolutely essential to target players who are comfortable going low.
  • Players know before they even tee off on Thursday that they have to get to 20-under par to have any semblance of a chance. Some players thrive in those conditions, and some players will very transparently tell you that they are not a fan of these weeks. The players that have performed the best in easy scoring conditions over the last three years have been Tony Finau, Tom Hoge, Tom Kim, Justin Thomas, Sungjae Im, Taylor Moore, J.J. Spaun, Thomas Detry, Andrew Putnam, and Mark Hubbard. 
  • The best players in this field in birdies or better gained are Rickie Fowler, Max Homa, Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa, Sungjae Im, Harry Hall, Dylan Wu, Brandon Wu, Akshay Bhatia, and Justin Thomas. 
  • This is another event where generating opportunities will be absolutely essential due to the large amount of scoring opportunities. The best players in this field in opportunities gained are Tom Hoge, Tony Finau, Hideki Matsuyama, Rickie Fowler, Kevin Yu, Collin Morikawa, Ben Martin, Luke List, Justin Thomas, and Davis Riley. 
  • On any golf course with four par fives, taking advantage of the three-shotters is going to be crucial. All three of the par fives feature over a 30% birdie rate, and at least three of the four are reachable in two for even the shortest players in this field. There has unsurprisingly been a large correlation of success for those who are able to take advantage of the par fives at Detroit Golf Club. Top-10 finishers on average have gained more strokes to the field on the par fives than they have on the par fours and par threes. The best par-five scorers in this field are Collin Morikawa, Tony Finau, Rickie Fowler, Dylan Wu, Justin Thomas, Sungjae Im, Andrew Putnam, Kevin Chappell, Samuel Stevens, and Davis Thompson. 

• Course History/Comp Course History 
  • In its very short history, Detroit Golf Club features some of the least predictive course history on the PGA Tour. There are certain players that have performed well here over the four years, and there is certainly some nuance to these greens, but I would not spend a ton of time getting caught up in course history. I wouldn’t care too much whether a player has played well here before or never seen the course. Cameron Davis missed his first two cuts prior to winning. Tony Finau finished 57th in his only appearance here prior to winning. With that being said, strong performances under a player’s belt is always a bonus. The best players at Detroit Golf Club over the last four years have been Tony Finau, Troy Merritt, J.J. Spaun, Taylor Pendrith, Chris Kirk, Matt Wallace, Nate Lashley, Taylor Moore, Cameron Davis, and Tom Kim. 
  • In terms of comp courses, Detroit Golf Club is far from the only “Bent-grass birdie-fest” on the PGA Tour schedule. TPC Twin Cities, TPC Craig Ranch, TPC River Highlands, and TPC Deere Run are all courses with similar agronomy and similar scoring conditions. When factoring in aesthetic and strategy as well, I would put TPC River Highlands and TPC Deere Run at the top of the list, and it should not come as a surprise that there has been some crossover among both leaderboards.
    • The best players in this field at TPC River Highlands have been Brian Harman, Ryan Moore, Chez Reavie, Webb Simpson, Keegan Bradley, Charley Hoffman, Chris Stroud, Harris English, Beau Hossler, and Zach Johnson. 
    • The best players in this field at TPC Deere Run have been Ryan Moore, Chris Stroud, Adam Schenk, Dylan Frittelli, Patton Kizzire, Lucas Glover, Zach Johnson, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Justin Thomas, and Patrick Rodgers. 

Model 

• Off the Tee (7%)
  • Driving Distance (7%)
• Approach (31%)
  • Strokes Gained Approach (16%)
  • Proximity 100-125 yards (5%)
  • Proximity 125-150 yards (5%)
  • Proximity 200 yards (5%)
• Around the Green (0%)
• Putting (18%)
  • Strokes Gained Putting: Bent/Poa (8%)
  • Putting 5-15 Feet (10%)
• Scoring Stats (32%)
  • Strokes Gained Total: Easy Scoring Conditions (8%)
  • Birdies or Better Gained (8%)
  • Opportunities Gained (10%)
  • Par 5 Scoring (6%)
• Comp Courses/Course History (12%)
  • Detroit Golf Club (6%)
  • TPC Deere Run (3%)
  • TPC River Highlands (3%)

Top 20 

1. Tony Finau
2. Max Homa
3. Justin Thomas
4. Collin Morikawa
5. Tom Kim
6. Hideki Matsuyama
7. Rickie Fowler
8. Nate Lashley
9. Davis Riley
10. Cameron Davis
11. Sungjae Im
12. Nicolai Hojgaard
13. Mark Hubbard
14. Keegan Bradley
15. Tom Hoge
16. Chris Kirk
17. Byeong-Hun An
18. Taylor Moore
19. Dylan Wu
20. Akshay Bhatia