By Andy Lack

2023 Course Breakdown: El Cardonal 

The Basics 

• Course: El Cardonal
• Location: Los Cabos
• Designer: Tiger Woods (2014)
• Length: Par 72; 7,452 yards
• Hazards: Water comes into play on 1 hole
• Fairways: Platinum Paspalum measuring 60 yards wide on average
• Rough: No rough
• Greens: Platinum Paspalum measuring 8,300 square feet on average

The World Wide Technology Championship, Mexico’s pioneering PGA Tour event, will be featured for the 17th season. 2023 marks a new chapter, however, as El Cardonal, a Tiger Woods design, will be making its debut as the host venue. El Cardonal is part of the Diamonte Cabo San Lucas development in Baja California Sur, which also features a highly regarded Davis Love design, Diamonte Dunes.

The field will consist of 132 players competing for a total purse of $8.2 million and 500 FedEx Cup points. The previous venue, El Cameleon at the Mayakoba, is now a host course for a LIV venue, which feels a more natural fit given Greg Norman’s credit as the lead architect. El Camaleon was an extremely narrow golf course framed by thick mangroves that emphasized accuracy off the tee and wedge play. With nearly 60-yard-wide fairways, El Cardonal will play in stark contrast to this, and it is diametrically opposed in its design philosophy. The Tiger Woods design opened in 2014 and was the 82-time PGA Tour winner’s first official project as the lead “architect.” I have some skepticism towards the amount of time that Woods spent moving dirt and as a hands-on presence, especially given the timing of when this was completed. With that being said, Woods has mentioned that El Cardonal was strongly influenced by the Southern California courses that Woods grew up playing. I have lived in Southern California for the past decade, play the vast majority of my golf there, and I’m not sure I see the comparison, but to each their own. If El Cardonal is any Southern California track, it’s a far less challenging version of Los Angeles Country Club. Expansive fairways frame large, wide-open greens that encourage shot options and the ground game.

In terms of the actual layout of the course, El Cardonal is a par 72, measuring a touch over 7,400 yards on the scorecard. The Woods design features a standard four par fives and four par threes. At least three of the par fives (#1, #14, #18) are certainly reachable, even with slower-running Paspalum fairways. It’s hard to not look at this course and be instantly reminded of Vidanta Vallarta, the host of the Mexico Open. Both are resort courses with massive fairways, gigantic greens, and Paspalum agronomy from head to toe. Outside of its sheer length, Vidanta’s greatest defense is the wind. I would expect that to be the case at El Cardonal as well, so be sure to monitor the weather as the week progresses. Despite its over-imposing length, I would imagine players to tear this place up in benign conditions.

Such is the case with most resort courses that cater to higher-handicapped golfers; length, wind, and turf speed are really the only ways to challenge professionals on these tracks. El Cardonal is long, but not over-imposing. It’s no longer than courses such as TPC Craig Ranch and Vidanta Vallarta, where pros can routinely get to the high teens under par. It’s nearly impossible for a Paspalum course to play fast and fiery given the way that turf interacts with the climate. This leaves wind as the primary defense. Despite its proximity to the ocean, early weather reports display extremely calm conditions. I’m sure most folks analyzing this golf course will come to a similar conclusion, but I would not be the least if we saw a player eclipse the 25-under-par mark. Given the pure specs of this golf course, it should play as one of the easiest tracks on the entire schedule. Very little thought is required off the tee, and while there are some menacing fairway bunkers, Paspalum is an incredibly easy surface to chip and putt off of. Even with some moderate undulation to these putting surfaces, I would expect them to run on the extremely slow side, allowing players to be aggressive. I crafted my model very similarly to Vidanta Vallarta this week, and I will be placing a strong emphasis on power off the tee, mid- to long-iron play, birdie-making ability, putting on slow greens, and par-five scoring. Let’s dive into the stats.

Stats 

• Off the Tee
  • Bombs away off the tee here, folks! El Cardonal’s expansive fairways encourage swinging away. These may be the most spacious driving corridors that players face all season, and while there are plenty of fairway bunkers, it’s hard to imagine skilled drivers pulling anything other than driver on every single hole. El Cardonal is similar to other tropical courses in the sense that there is no real rough, and there are a few areas on the course where it’s possible to lose a ball. Still, players will need to be incredibly wayward to find themselves in true trouble off the tee. I’d be fairly surprised if we saw any form of decision matrices for players on this golf course. The driving areas are simply too inviting. A course reviewer commented, “Though there are some short par fours, you’ll rarely be tempted to hit anything but driver on the non-par threes given the width of the short grass and the confidence it breeds. On a calm day, you almost can’t miss a fairway, but when the wind is up, leaving the fairway often results in a lost ball. The difficulty in the course comes from the overall length combined with the pin placements. There are some pins that could prove to be absolutely diabolical to contend with, but there is enough real estate on the greens that would allow easy pins as well.” I don’t see a ton of value in looking at any other off-the-tee metric than pure power here. We’ve seen a massive correlation between driving distance and success at Vidanta Vallarta, and I would expect El Cardonal to follow suit. The longest drivers of the ball in this field are Kyle Westmoreland, Cameron Champ, Peter Kuest, Cameron Young, Brent Grant, Matthias Schmid, Ludvig Aberg, Keith Mitchell, Callum Tarren, and Trevor Cone. 

• Approach 
  • I went through hole by hole at El Cardonal, using my projected strategy off the tee and driving distance (very similar to Vidanta Vallarta) to map out our most likely proximity buckets. Spending time on this has given me a real edge on courses we don’t have approach data for, and I feel fairly comfortable this is how the buckets will shake out:
    • Inside 100 yards: 17% (Tour average 10.8%)
    • 100-125 yards: 6% (Tour average: 11.8%)
    • 125-150 yards: 6% (Tour average: 17%)
    • 150-175 yards: 22% (Tour average: 20.3%)
    • 175-200 yards: 22% (Tour average: 17.5%)
    • 200 yards plus: 28% (Tour average: 23%)
  • The big takeaway here is that over 70% of approach come from over 150 yards, and conversely, a comically low amount of shots come from 100-150 yards. I’ve alluded to the fact that one of the strongest defenses that El Cardonal has is its sheer length, and I would expect a large plurality of mid- to long-iron shots. With that being said, three of those long approaches are coming on shorter par fives, and two of the par fours barely measure over 200 yards. Just as we’ve seen at courses such as Vidanta Vallarta and TPC Craig Ranch, a large plurality of long-iron approaches does not equate to a difficult challenge for the modern professional golfer. Especially on a golf course like El Cardonal with massive, slow greens, there is negligible approach penalty here. The greens measure a whopping 8,300 square feet, and an expertise in lag putting can cover up a lot of deficiencies on approach. Still, an elite player from 150 yards-plus (particularly 200 yards plus) still stands to have a massive advantage on this golf course. With such massively wide driving areas, I would absolutely define El Cardonal as a second-shot golf course. El Cardonal is not a point A to point B golf course. Most players are going to hit the fairway on the course. Sure, distance is important, and some players will have far shorter approaches than others, yet with such little penalty off the tee, scoring at El Cardonal will be largely correlated to long-iron approach play and lag putting skill. The best overall mid- to long-iron players in this field have been Chez Reavie, Austin Eckroat, Luke List, Stephan Jaeger, MJ Daffue, Cameron Young, Preston Summerhays, Augusto Nunez, and Nick Hardy. 

• Around the Green 
  • Before discussing the amount of sand bunkers on this course, it’s important to note the caveat that we will see an extremely high greens-in-regulation percentage this week. El Cardonal features some of the largest greens on the PGA Tour, and nearly all players will be approaching them from the fairway. I would not recommend getting caught up on short game on any course with a high greens-in-regulation percentage, but the expansive and elaborate bunkering is certainly at least worth mentioning. The best overall bunker players in this field have been Matt Kuchar, Lanto Griffin, David Lingmerth, Maverick McNealy, Austin Cook, Harry Hall, Peter Kuest, Tano Goya, Sean O’Hair, and Richy Werenski. 

• Putting 
  • Paspalum greens are always going to run on the slower side, and while we have limited strokes gained data from these courses, we can still identify the players who raise their baseline on slower greens. The best putters in this field on slow greens have been Matt Kuchar, Kelly Kraft, Ben Taylor, Harry Hall, Taylor Montgomery, Justin Lower, Adam Long, Richy Werenski, Troy Merritt, and Lucas Herbert. 
  • El Cardonal’s greens are also massive, and with such a high degree of approach shots coming from greater than 150 yards, we should not expect to see a very close overall proximity to the hole. I firmly believe that lag putting will be absolutely crucial this week. Players will have no problem hitting the green in regulation at El Cardonal, but with such few shots between 100 and 150 yards, many players will be leaving themselves with longer birdie and eagle putts. The best overall lag putters in this field have been Maverick McNealy, Beau Hossler, Aaron Baddeley, Brian Stuard, Ryan Moore, Vincent Whaley, Emiliano Grillo, Carson Young, Taylor Pendrith, and Robby Shelton. 

• Scoring Stats
  • Again, I may tweak this if the wind reports heat up in the next couple of days, but as of now, I would expect El Cardonal to be an absolute birdie bonanza. When the scoring is going to be low, it’s important to identify the best birdie makers and those who consistently raise their baseline in easy scoring conditions.
    • The players who make the most birdies or better per round in this field have been Sahith Theegala, Ludvig Aberg, Stephan Jaeger, Cameron Young, Taylor Montgomery, Marty Dou, Scott Piercy, MJ Daffue, Harry Hall, and Luke List. 
    • The best players in this field over the last two years in easy scoring conditions have been Maverick McNealy, Doug Ghim, Andrew Putnam, Tyler Duncan, Stephan Jaeger, Cameron Young, J.J. Spaun, Ryan Palmer, Beau Hossler, and Peter Kuest. 
  • Par-five scoring is always worth a look on any par 72, but I expect players to really be able to separate themselves on the four three-shotters at El Cardonal. The first, 14th and 18th holes may all present eagle opportunities, and I would not be the least bit surprised if the quartet of par fives played as the easiest four holes on the course. Players who do not take advantage of these holes will be losing strokes to the field, and it will be important to identify the best overall par-five scorers. Davis Thompson, Stephan Jaeger, Ludvig Aberg, Scott Harrington, K.H. Lee, Matt Kuchar, Zac Blair, Cameron Young, Erik Van Rooyen, and Doug Ghim lead the field in par five scoring over the past year.
  • While many of the Paspalum courses on Tour feature limited strokes gained data, it’s important to recognize that this is a different style of golf. Paspalum is an incredibly slow and sticky strain of grass. The fairways feature less rollout, the greens are slower, and the ball sits up in the fairways, making chipping a lot easier than on firm Bermuda. The climate is different, the vibes are generally a lot more casual, and these events are generally less attended. The overall atmosphere of these events play in stark contrast to many of the stops on the PGA Tour. I put together a strokes gained tally of the best players over the past five years on Paspalum/tropical golf courses (minimum eight rounds). The best players in these conditions have been Brandon Wu, Nate Lashley, Harry Hall, Akshay Bhatia, Adam Long, Cameron Champ, Matt Kuchar, Emiliano Grillo, David Lipsky and Brice Garnett.

 

• Comp Courses
  • I’ve already allude to Vidanta Vallarta, host of the Mexico Open, as an incredibly strong reference point. Both courses have similar agronomy, feature expansive fairways, elaborate bunkering, and wide open greens. Both encourage players to bomb away off the tee and feature a large plurality of mid to long irons. In a vacuum, El Cardonal might be a touch easier than Vidanta in neutral conditions, but blustery conditions (don’t count on it) could change that. We have certainly seen a bit of wind the last two years at Vidanta Vallarta, but nothing crazy, with scores still ranging in the mid to high tees. El Cardonal might play a tad easier, but the roadmap to success at both courses is incredible similar. Power off the tee, mid to long iron play, and lag putting is the name of the game at both Mexican tracks. The best players in this field at Vidanta Vallarta have been Brandon Wu, Akshay Bhatia, Cameron Champ, Davis Riley, Emiliano Grillo, Ben Taylor, Adam Long, Stephan Jaeger, Harry Hall, and Beau Hossler. 
  • While we do not have strokes gained from the Corales Punta Cana Club Championship, this is an another event that features an extremely similar feel to what we should expect this week in Mexico. Corales is another wide open golf course with expansive driving corridors, massively large greens, where power off the tee, mid to long iron play, and a hot putter is the name of the game. The best players in this field at Corales have been Mackenzie Hughes, Ben Martin, Chad Ramey, Austin Eckroat, Joel Dahmen, Thomas Detry, David Lipsky, Kelly Kraft, Brice Garnett, and Nate Lashley. 
  • The other track that comes to mind in terms of a wide open, slower golf course that emphasize mid to long iron play and features incredibly easy scoring conditions is Kapalua, host course of the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Kapalua is an incredibly small field event with difficult qualifying criteria, so few players in this field have experience there. With that being said, the best players in this field at Kapalua have been Jonathan Byrd, Martin Laird, Brandt Snedeker, J.J. Spaun, Jimmy Walker, Patton Kizzire, Peter Malnati, Kevin Tway, Matt Kuchar, and Luke List. 

 

Model 

• Off the Tee (10%)
  • Driving Distance (10%)
• Approach (31%)
  • Strokes Gained Approach (15%)
  • Proximity 150-175 yards (5%)
  • Proximity 175-200 yards (5%)
  • Proximity 200 yards plus (6%)
• Around the Green (5%)
  • Sand Save Percentage (5%)
• Putting (14%)
  • Approach Putting (6%)
  • Strokes Gained Putting: Moderate to Slow Greens (8%)
• Scoring Stats (28%)
  • Birdies or Better Gained (10%)
  • Strokes Gained Total: Easy Scoring Conditions (6%)
  • Strokes Gained Total: Paspalum (6%)
  • Par Five Scoring (6%)
• Comp Courses/Course History (12%)
  • Vidanta Vallarta (5%)
  • Corales (4%)
  • Kapalua (3%)

 

Model Top 20 

1. Stephan Jaeger
2. Nate Lashley
3. Sahith Theegala
4. Peter Kuest
5. Akshay Bhatia
6. Ludvig Aberg
7. Emiliano Grillo
8. Davis Riley
9. Cameron Young
10. Mark Hubbard
11. Kevin Roy
12. Michael Kim
13. Austin Eckroat
14. Brandon Wu
15. Lucas Glover
16. Greyson Sigg
17. Nick Hardy
18. Doug Ghim
19. Sam Ryder
20. Kevin Yu