By Andy Lack

Greetings, and welcome to a brand new weekly feature on RickRunGood.com. My name is Andy Lack, I host the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show, as well as the Scramble with Rick, every Tuesdays and Fridays on the RickRunGood YouTube page and 300 Yards to Unknown Podcast Feed.

I am incredibly excited to provide an in-depth course breakdown for each weekly PGA Tour stop. I’ve been able to find my lane by looking at golf courses from a deeper lens, via architecture, agronomy, and so much more. Every single Monday, I will break down absolutely everything you need to know about the weekly PGA Tour venue before you make your bets and DraftKings lineups. So without further ago, let’s dive in!

The Basics 

• Course: Augusta National Golf Club
• Location: Augusta, Georgia
• Designer: Alister MacKenzie and Bobby Jones (1933), with multiple re-designs/tinkering (most notably in 2008 by Tom Fazio)
• Length: Par 72, 7,510 yards
• Hazards: Water comes into play on 5 holes
• Fairways: Rye-grass
• Rough: 1’38” inch Rye-grass
• Greens: Bent-grass, measuring 6,486 square feet on average and running 14 (!!!) on the stimp-meter

Well, we are finally here. It’s Masters week! I find this to probably be the most difficult course preview to write all season. What is there to say about Augusta National that we don’t already know? Augusta is the most iconic and recognizable golf course on the planet, and year after year, the same narratives get beaten to death. Experience matters! Iron play is crucial! It’s difficult around the greens! Score on the Par 5s! I imagine that readers of this article already know all of this, so I am going to attempt to approach this article with a little bit of a different angle, bust some myths, and hopefully shed a light on a few new angles that not as many people are talking about. Before we get into the stats, there were a couple important changes made to the course this year that I believe are worth paying attention to.

Course Changes 

• The Par 4 11th hole was lengthened by 15 yards, and now measures a whopping 520 yards on the scorecard. The tee was moved not only back, but also to the golfer’s left. The fairway was re-contoured, and several trees were removed on the right side. Essentially, players will have a little more room off the tee, but a longer approach shot in.
• Rory McIlroy visited the property last week and mentioned that he was approaching the green with a four iron. McIlroy remains one of the longest players on Tour, so I would imagine that many players now have to approach that green with a long iron, hybrid, or fairway wood.
• Here’s what McIlroy had to say, “It’s obviously a longer hole, the fairway is much wider, so even if you miss right, you still have a chance to hit the green. The green complexes are the same, but the surrounds of the green are much more penal so that sort of bail out right is a much more difficult shot than it used to be. Overall, I think it’s going to play tougher than it has in the previous year, and it was already one of the toughest holes on the course.”
• The Par 5 15th hole has also been extended from 530 to 550 yards. This hole might now be slightly more difficult to reach in two, but only for the shorter hitters. The green will be harder to hold if players are now approaching it with longer clubs.
• The 18th hole was lengthened by 13 yards. Pretty straightforward here. I do not think this really changes the character of the hole. It will be a half a club to club longer at most.
• Modifications have also been made to the 3rd, 13th, and 17th greens.

Ultimately, I do not believe that these changes will have a major effect on how this course plays as a whole, but if anything, I would give a bump to the importance of distance off the tee and long iron play. Most players will now absolutely be hitting a long iron into the 11th hole. The 15th hole will require a longer approach shot, and players that hit a poor drive will now face a more difficult decision on whether or not to lay up. The 18th hole, which players often approach the green with a 7 or 8 iron, will now also play a half club to a club longer.

The other key point that I want to note before we dive into the stats is that Georgia has gotten a lot of rain in the past month. This will not likely make a huge difference on the receptiveness of the greens, as Augusta features a state of the art sub-air system, but it will make a difference with the lack of roll-out from the fairways. Once again, I’m giving another bump to distance off the tee and long iron play. Let’s dig into the stats.

Key Stats 

• Off the Tee 
  • Augusta National ranked 26th out of 40 courses last year in strokes gained difficulty off the tee. The primary reason for that is that it features the 3rd widest fairways on the PGA Tour. Translation: driving accuracy is NOT an important stat at the Masters
  • Augusta National ranked below Tour average in difference of average score from fairway locations vs. non fairway locations, and driving accuracy here is 68%.
  • Four players in last year’s Top-10 (Marc Leishman, Patrick Reed, Justin Rose, and Tony Finau) ranked outside the top-35 in strokes gained off the tee. I’m going to take a stand here, and not look at strokes gained off the tee at all.
  • The one important distance metric that I will be looking at is Driving Distance. On that note, let’s walk through a popular narrative we will hear often this week: Can you over-power Augusta National? 
    • This is a debate we deal with every year. Zach Johnson won the 2007 Masters without hitting a single Par 5 green in two. Fast forward a decade later, and Bryson DeChambeau declared Augusta National a “Par 67,” claiming that all of the Par 5s were two shot holes for him. Bryson’s attempt at over-powering Augusta National has not yet proven to be successful, but I do believe he might be onto something.
    • Credit to my good pal Steve Bamford on this one: Every Masters winner since 2008 has been in the top 35% on Tour in Distance to Apex. What does this mean? Distance to Apex is a stat that essentially measures ball-flight. Players with a high distance to Apex hit their driver really high. The leaders in Distance to Apex this season in the field this week are Cameron Champ, Matthew Wolff, Cameron Young, Lucas Herbert, Sergio Garcia, Brooks Koepka, Garrick Higgo, Luke List, Gary Woodland, and Sam Burns. 
    • Another note on Augusta National: all of the fairways are mown in the opposite direction of where the hole is going, which limits roll-out, which is another reason why having a high ball-flight at Augusta National is incredibly crucial. This course plays closer to 7,800 yards than it does 7,400 yards, especially given the rain-fall that area of Georgia has already received this year.
    • Of course there are going to be anomalies. Patrick Reed won the Masters the same way that he won at Torrey Pines, Doral, and frankly any other course he’s had success at. He made a billion putts and had the best short game in the field that week. Same with Jordan Spieth, who has been able to to make up for his lack of distance with immaculate iron play and short game. For the most part however, I do believe players with a high ball-flight and above average distance off the tee possess an advantage at Augusta National. 

• Approach 
  • Augusta National ranked 6th out of 40 courses last year in strokes gained difficulty on approach shots.
  • Players have only hit 60% of the greens at Augusta National on average. Last year, it ranked 10th out of 40 courses in lowest greens in regulation percentage.
  • Augusta National is definitively a mid to long iron courses. 23% of approaches at Augusta National come from 150-175 yards, 21% of approaches come from 175-200 yards, and 31% of approaches come 200 yards plus. Augusta National ranked 7th last year in difficulty of strokes gained approach from 150 yards plus.
  • With the wetness of course, and the increased length, I am placing a heavy emphasis on mid to long iron play. The best players from 150-200 yards over the past year have been Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland, Lucas Glover, Paul Casey, Tom Hoge, Abraham Ancer, Joaquin Niemann, and Shane Lowry. 
  • The best players from 200 yards plus over the past year have been Bryson DeChambeau, Paul Casey, Will Zalatoris, Jon Rahm, Ryan Palmer, Viktor Hovland, Tyrrell Hatton, Matthew Wolff, Justin Thomas, and Cameron Champ. 
  • The only three players to rank Top-10 in both mid iron and long iron play are Paul Casey, Viktor Hovland, and Justin Thomas. 

• Around the Green 
  • Augusta National ranked number one in strokes gained difficulty around the green, both last year and historically. 
  • Chipping off closely mown areas to undulating greens is a staple of Augusta National. Augusta ranked number one in strokes gained around the green difficulty from the fairway, contrasted with just 24th in strokes gained difficulty around the green from the rough.
  • The bunkers are no joke either. Augusta National ranked 6th in strokes gained around the green difficulty from the bunkers. The best long-term bunker players in this field have been Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Kevin Na, Xander Schauffele, Thomas Pieters, Lucas Herbert, Daniel Berger, Louis Oosthuizen, Talor Gooch, Brian Harman, and Matt Fitzpatrick. 
  • Last year, the top 10 players in strokes gained around the green finished 3rd, 10th, 3rd, 1st, 21st, 18th, 5th, 10th, 5th, and 12th. Essentially, players that rank highly in strokes gained around the green this week have an extremely high chance of finishing in the Top-20. 
  • The best players in strokes gained around the green have been Danny Willett, Kevin Na, Talor Gooch, Sungjae Im, Tommy Fleetwood, Louis Oosthuizen, Luke List, Patrick Cantlay, Webb Simpson, and Scottie Scheffler. 
  • This might be an aggressive play, but this is the heaviest I have ever been on short game in my model for a given week.

• Putting 
  • Augusta National easily has the most interesting green complexes that players will see all year. I have been lucky enough to play two original Alister MacKenzie courses in the past couple of months, and I completely understand why players say it’s impossible to master the greens here.
  • These are the fastest and most undulating greens that players will see all year on Tour, and yet historically poor putters such as Hideki Matsuyama, Adam Scott, and Sergio Garcia have still found a roadmap to victory.
  • How do we reconcile the countless examples of poor putters winning the Masters on a course that ranks 4th on Tour in strokes gained putting difficulty, 6th in strokes gained putting difficulty from 5 to 15 feet, and 2nd in strokes gained putting difficulty from 15 feet and above?
    • For starters, players such as Scott and Matsuyama have always found more of a liking to Bent-grass greens.
    • Secondly, whether or not players are a “good” overall putter is not necessarily predictive of whether or not players will putt well at Augusta. These greens are so incredibly nuanced that course experience is almost more predictive than general putting stats.
    • Finally, at the end of the day, ball-striking is still the name of the game at Augusta National. Last year, zero players in the Top-5 finished inside the Top-5 in strokes gained putting. Xander finished 3rd last year, ranking 41st in strokes gained putting. Jordan Spieth also finished 3rd last year, ranking 53rd in strokes gained putting. Even Hideki ranked outside of the Top-20 in strokes gained putting.
  • Ultimately, I have a smaller weight on putting than normal, and I do believe I have some of that covered with how heavy I am on course history this week. The three putting metrics that I will have small weights on are strokes gained putting on Bent-grass greens, strokes gained putting on fast greens, and 3-Putt Avoidance.
    • The best Bent-grass putters in this field have been Mackenzie Hughes, Patrick Cantlay, Jason Kokrak, Abraham Ancer, Cameron Smith, Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Rose, Rory McIlroy, Zach Johnson, and Patrick Reed.
    • The best putters on fast greens have been Cameron Smith, Adam Scott, Bryson DeChambeau, Zach Johnson, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Sam Burns, Mackenzie Hughes, Dustin Johnson, Abraham Ancer, and Kevin Kisner. 
    • The best players in 3-Putt Avoidance have been Talor Gooch, Xander Schauffele, Lucas Herbert, Cameron Smith, Sam Burns, Adam Scott, Tyrrell Hatton, Patrick Reed, Patrick Cantlay, and Marc Leishman. 
    • The only player who ranks Top-10 in all three of those metrics is Cameron Smith. Hardly a shock that he’s experienced so much success at the Masters.

• Scoring Stats 
  • Par 5 Scoring is absolutely crucial at Augusta National, as all four of the Par 5s are reachable for the longest hitters. Yet surviving the Par 4s has proven to be just as critical. For this reason, I chose to look at both Par 5 Scoring and general Bogey Avoidance.
  • The best Par 5 scorers over the past year have been Patrick Cantlay, Bryson DeChambeau, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Cameron Smith, Seamus Power, Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, Max Homa, Talor Gooch, and Sam Burns. 
  • The best players in Bogey Avoidance over the past year have been Jon Rahm, Daniel Berger, Shane Lowry, Patrick Cantlay, Will Zalatoris, Justin Thomas, Tom Hoge, Seamus Power, Sungjae Im, and Sam Burns. 
  • The only four players to rank Top-10 in Par 5 Scoring and Bogey Avoidance are Jon Rahm, Seamus Power, Patrick Cantlay, and Sam Burns. Power and Burns will be making their Masters debut.

• Course History/Comp Courses 
  • We know that experience matters at the Masters. The last time a debutant donned the green jacket was Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.
  • Eight of the last 10 winners have played in at least three Masters. Jordan Spieth (2015) and Danny Willet (2016) won on their second appearance, which is still very rare.
  • Seven of the last 10 winners had posted a previous Top-10 at the Masters. Nine of the last 10 winners had posted a previous Top-5, with Willett, who finished 38th in his first Masters, being the lone exception.
  • Add all this together, and I have landed on a 14% course history weight, the largest I will do all season. The best players at Augusta National over the past decade have been Tiger Woods, Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose, Lee Westwood, Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Adam Scott, and Tony Finau. 
  • As far as corollary courses go, Augusta National is so singular and nuanced, it’s almost insulting to compare it to any other golf course. With that being said, there are a lot of lower-priced players in this field that will be making their Masters debut. Some of them will play well and likely win someone a lot of money, so I wanted to identify three different golf courses with a strong crossover of leaderboards. Kapalua, host of the season opening Sentry Tournament of Champions, is another course with expansive fairways and large, undulating green complexes. Five of the last seven winners of the Masters have also won at Kapalua. Cam Smith, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Vijay Singh, Dustin Johnson, Xander Schauffele, and Patrick Reed (just to name a few) have experienced loads of success at both courses.
  • Riviera is another course that favors length off the tee, strong mid to long iron play, and a deft touch around the greens. The top-6 players in strokes gained total at Riviera have been Adam Scott, Bubba Watson, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Xander Schauffele. Those 6 players have combined for 39 Top-25s, 25 Top-10s, 3 runner-ups, and 4 wins at Augusta National. 
  • Finally, Jack Nicklaus has spoken openly about Muirfield Village, the host of the Memorial Tournament, drew inspiration from Augusta National. Former Memorial winners and runner-ups who have also experienced loads of success at the Masters include Jon Rahm, Adam Scott, Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose, Hideki Matsuyama, Matt Kuchar, Tiger Woods (duh), Kenny Perry, Zach Johnson, and Fred Couples. 
  • Looking at these three courses can help us identify players such as Joaquin Niemann, Max Homa, and Cameron Young, who may not have popped at the Masters yet, but might be a better fit here than meets the eye.

Ultimately, you will hear the same things about the Masters over and over again this week, and most of that information will be good. Yet if everyone is looking at the same things, how do we find an edge? I have chosen to go really aggressive in my model this week with long iron play, short game and course history. I have also chosen to completely exclude any off the tee metric other than distance. Here’s the full breakdown:

The Model 

• Off the Tee (7%)
  • Driving Distance (7%)
• Approach (29%)
  • SG: Approach (15%)
  • Weighted long-term Proximity 150-200 yards (8%)
  • Weighted long-term Proximity 200 yards plus (5%)
• Around the Green (20%)
  • SG: Around the Green (15%)
  • Sand Saves (5%)
• Putting (13%)
  • SG: Putting on Bent-grass (5%)
  • SG: Putting on Fast greens (5%)
  • 3 Putt Avoidance (3%)
• Scoring Stats (11%)
  • Par 5 Scoring (5%)
  • Bogey Avoidance (6%)
• Course History/Corollary Courses (20%)
  • Augusta National history (14%)
  • Riviera history (2%)
  • Muirfield Village history (2%)
  • Kapalua history (2%)

Top 20 

1. Justin Thomas, $10,300
2. Rory McIlroy, $10,000
3. Jon Rahm, $10,800
4. Cameron Smith, $9,900
5. Scottie Scheffler, $11,000
6. Talor Gooch, $8,700
7. Patrick Cantlay, $9,500
8. Daniel Berger, $9,000
9. Xander Schauffele, $9,600
10. Adam Scott, $8,300
11. Hideki Matsuyama, $9,300
12. Sam Burns, $8,600
13. Paul Casey, $7,600
14. Louis Oosthuizen, $8,900
15. Will Zalatoris, $9,200
16. Shane Lowry, $8,800
17. Luke List, $7,000
18. Dustin Johnson, $10,500
19. Harold Varner, $6,600
20. Joaquin Niemann, $8,200

Most over-valued based on price: Dustin Johnson ($10,500, 18th), Collin Morikawa ($10,200; 28th), Viktor Hovland ($10,100; 32nd), Jordan Spieth ($9,800; 38th); Brooks Koepka ($9,400; 44th); Bryson DeChambeau ($9,100; 35th); Tiger Woods ($8,500, 77th)

Most under-valued based on price: Talor Gooch ($8,700, 6th); Paul Casey ($7,600, 13th); Luke List ($7,000; 17th); Harold Varner III ($6,600; 20th); Marc Leishman ($7,300; 23rd); Kevin Na ($6,800; 24th); Tom Hoge ($6,700; 25th); Seamus Power ($7,200; 29th)