Greetings, and welcome to a brand new weekly feature on RickRunGood.com. My name is Andy Lack, I host the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show, as well as the Scramble with Rick, every Tuesdays and Fridays on the RickRunGood YouTube page and 300 Yards to Unknown Podcast Feed.
I am incredibly excited to provide an in-depth course breakdown for each weekly PGA Tour stop. I’ve been able to find my lane by looking at golf courses from a deeper lens, via architecture, agronomy, and so much more. Every single Monday, I will break down absolutely everything you need to know about the weekly PGA Tour venue before you make your bets and DraftKings lineups. So without further ago, let’s dive in!
The Basics
- Course: The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio
- Location: Cibolo Canyons, Texas
- Designer: Greg Norman (2009)
- Length: Par 72; 7,494 yards
- Hazards: Water comes into play on two holes
- Fairways: Bermuda-grass with Rye and Fescue, measuring 33 yards wide on average
- Rough: Bermuda-grass (2 inches)
- Greens: Bermuda-grass overseeded with Poa Trivilias, measuring 6,400 square feet on average
From a bird’s eye view, there isn’t a whole lot of tricks or nuance to TPC San Antonio. The Greg Norman design encapsulates the typical PGA Tour course that will generally provide a winning score between 12 and 20 under par. TPC San Antonio is certainly on the more difficult end of the spectrum, but in the last three years, we have seen lower scoring. From 2011 to 2017, the winning score fell between 8 and 14-under par. Yet the last three years, players have needed to get to 17, 20, and 18-under par. The reason for this two-fold. The biggest challenge to this course, as is often the case in Texas, is the wind, and it simply hasn’t been as windy the past couple of years. Check back later in the week for a full weather report in my DFS Final Thoughts piece, but I would imagine the trend of easier scoring conditions to continue.
The number one takeaway I had about TPC San Antonio from my research is to not be fooled by the gaudy yardage on the scorecard. Digging through some player quotes, this is a course where far more time is spent watering the greens than the fairways. While this course reads almost 7,500 yards on the scorecard, driving distance here is above Tour average, and our three most recent winners, Andrew Landry, Corey Conners, and Jordan Spieth, all rate out well below average in length off the tee.
TPC San Antonio is visually intimidating course, and similar to TPC Scottsdale, while there is no real water to worry about, there are many ways that players can find themselves in trouble. Less we not forget, this is the same course that Kevin Na infamously recorded a 16 on one hole. Ultimately, it’s a test that comes down to keeping the ball in play off the tee, scoring on the Par 5s, and elite mid-iron play. Let’s dig into the key stats.
Key Stats
- Off the Tee
- 15.3% of strokes gained have come from off the tee, checking right around at Tour average
- Driving accuracy at TPC San Antonio is only 56%, compared to the Tour average of 62%, so players struggle to find the fairway here.
- With that being said, the rough is not much of a problem. In terms of difference in average score from drives in the fairway vs. drives in the rough, TPC San Antonio has ranked 39th out of 40 courses.
- TPC San Antonio has also ranked 34th out of 40 in average difference of score between fairway drives vs. non-fairway drives. Here’s a quote from Jimmy Walker, “Driving the ball in the rough isn’t going to be a big deal this week, just because it’s not very long. You can get some pretty nice lies in the rough.”
- What we do have to consider however is that TPC San Antonio ranked 11th in terms of difference in average score in fairway drives vs. non-rough location drives, which essentially means that the rough just off the fairway might not be a problem. Yet wayward drives that find the trees or rock outcroppings are a recipe for disaster. In short, players do not need to be deadly accurate here, but they must keep the ball in play.
- My initial thought was that distance matters at TPC San Antonio due to the importance of Par 5 Scoring. I would imagine that players who can reach the Par 5s in two would possess a distinct advantage, as all four of the Par 5s measure above 560 yards, and three measure over 590 yards. However, each of the past two champions have ranked top-10 in Par 5 scoring despite possessing below average distance. Last year, Spieth ranked 1st in Par 5 scoring. Even the longest hitters will struggle to reach these Par 5s in two, placing the real emphasis on wedge play.
- Prior to Spieth and Conners, Vaughn Taylor, one of the shortest hitters on Tour, was number one in Par 5 scoring. Just a scanning through the past three leaderboards, here are some of our Top-15 finishers: Jordan Spieth, Lucas Glover, Anirban Lahiri, Chris Kirk (twice), Brandt Snedeker (twice), Cameron Tringale (twice), Tom Hoge, Matt Kuchar (twice), Corey Conners, Ryan Moore (twice), Brian Stuard, Kevin Streelman (twice), Scott Brown, Graeme McDowell, Andrew Landry, Andrew Putnam, Billy Horschel, and Vaughn Taylor. None of those players are particularly powerful off the tee, but all they do a solid job of keeping the ball in play.
- Approach
- 33.9% of stroked gained at TPC San Antonio have come on approach, which is right around Tour average.
- Greens in regulation percentage at TPC San Antonio is only 58% compared to the Tour average of 66%, and I was able to find a strong correlation between Greens in Regulation Gained and success at TPC San Antonio. The players in the field who hit the most Greens in Regulation per round relative to the field are Russell Knox, Corey Conners, Luke List, Martin Laird, Jhonattan Vegas, Mito Pereira, Adam Hadwin, Matthew NeSmith, Nick Watney, and Jim Herman.
- TPC San Antonio consistently ranks above average in strokes gained difficulty on approaches. Many of these greens feature multiple tiers, making it difficult to get the ball close.
- The distribution of approach shots at TPC San Antonio is pretty evenly dispersed. I would probably say that mid iron player is the most important, but not overwhelmingly so. 38% of approach shots come from between 150-200 yards. The top players in weighted proximity from 150-200 yards over the last year have been Lucas Glover, Abraham Ancer, Matthew NeSmith, Hideki Matsuyama, Doug Ghim, Russell Knox, Keegan Bradley, Luke Donald, Tony Finau, and Martin Laird.
- Nine of the 10 Par 4s measure between 400 and 480 yards, which is why I’m choosing to look most closely at mid-iron play. it is still worth noting that most players will have longer irons in on the Par 3s, which measure between 183 and 241, and flip wedges on three of the four Par 5s.
- Around the Green
- 17.6% of strokes gained have come from around green, which is actually well above Tour average. With that being said, the last few years, the importance of short game has decreased as greens in regulation percentage has increased and the scoring has gotten easier. Outside of Jordan Spieth, who ranked third in strokes gained around the green, each of the last five winners have ranked outside the top-30 in that metric.
- While players will still need to rely on their short game at TPC San Antonio, the degree of difficulty around the greens is nothing too crazy. The last two years, TPC San Antonio has ranked 30th and 21st out of 40 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty.
- Last year, TPC San Antonio ranked 31st out of 40 courses in difficulty of getting up and down from the fairway, 38th out of 40 courses in difficulty of getting up and down from the rough, yet 7th out of 40 in difficulty of getting up and down from the bunkers.
- Each of the last five years, TPC San Antonio has ranked inside the top 10 in difficulty of getting up down from the bunkers. Ultimately, the most important around the green metric at TPC San Antonio is Sand Saves. The best bunker players over the last year have been Matt Kuchar, Stephan Jaeger, Matt Jones, Luke List, Bill Haas, Jimmy Walker, Ian Poulter, Rory McIlroy, C.T. Pan, and Adam Hadwin.
- Putting
- 33.2% of strokes gained have come putting, which is right around Tour average.
- TPC San Antonio’s greens are certainly undulating, with many of them featuring multiple tiers. Yet each of the last five years, this course has ranked right around the middle of the pack in strokes gained putting difficulty.
- I net out pretty down the middle in terms of the importance of putting this week. This tournament is by no means a putting contest, but it does not solely weed out below average tee-to-green players who can only putt either.
- I will primarily be looking at a weighted combination of putting on other courses with over-seeded Bermuda greens, such as TPC Scottsdale, TPC Sawgrass, Innisbrook, and the Stadium Course at PGA West. The best putters on these over-seeded surfaces have been Brendon Todd, J.T. Poston, Denny McCarthy, Adam Hadwin, Graeme McDowell, Chesson Hadley, Patton Kizzire, Branden Grace, Seung-Yul Noh and Ben Kohles.
- Scoring Stats
- I’ve already alluded to the importance of Par 5 scoring. Laird (2013), Walker (2015), Hoffman (2016), and Spieth (2021) all led the field in Par 5 scoring en route to victory.
- Top-10 finishers on average have gained more strokes to the field on the Par 5s relative to what they have on the Par 3s and Par 4s.
- The best Par 5 scorers over the last year have been Bryson DeChambeau, Beau Hossler, Hideki Matsuyama, Gary Woodland, Maverick McNealy, Rory McIlroy, Sahith Theegala, Luke List, Sam Ryder, and Doug Ghim.
- Course History/Comp Courses
- I’m not super heavy on course history this week. Obviously, the Charley Hoffmans, Corey Conners, Zach Johnsons, and Jordan Speiths seem to play well here year after year, yet there’s not much nuance involved with this course. It’s Greg Norman we are talking about, not Alister MacKenzie.
- First timers can absolutely experience success at TPC San Antonio. Zach Johnson won back-to-back in his first two appearances here. Brendan Steele won on his 1st appearance here. Pat Perez and Jim Furyk both almost won on their 1st appearance here. The list goes on. I will certainly give a bump to the players who have experienced success here, but I’m not going to be docking first timers here too much either.
- In terms of comp courses, TPC Summerlin is probably my favorite. Martin Laird has won at both courses. Cameron Tringale, Kevin Streelman, Ryan Moore, and Matt Kuchar have all experienced success at both courses, just to name a few. Both courses place an emphasis on keeping the ball in play off the tee and mid iron play, with moderate to easy scoring conditions, depending on the wind. The best players in this field at TPC Summerlin have been Bryson DeChambeau, Tony Finau, Adam Hadwin, Matthew NeSmith, Adam Schenk, Martin Laird, Beau Hossler, Patton Kizzire, Robert Streb and Austin Cook.
- I don’t mind looking at TPC Scottsdale either for the same reasons. TPC Scottsdale also features even more similar agronomy. Rickie Fowler, Charley Hoffman, Martin Laird, J.B. Holmes, and Brandt Snedeker are just a few of the players that have experienced a great deal of success on both tracks. The best players in this field at TPC Scottsdale have been Hideki Matsuyama, Rickie Fowler, Matt Kuchar, Branden Grace, J.T. Poston, Martin Laird, Jordan Spieth, Gary Woodland, Sahith Theegala, and Russell Knox.
The Model
- Off the Tee (15%)
- SG: OTT (7%)
- Good Drives Gained (8%)
- Approach (33%)
- SG: APP (18%)
- Greens in Regulation Gained (6%)
- Weighted long-term proximity from 150-200 yards (9%)
- Around the Green (13%)
- SG: ARG (6%)
- Sand Saves (7%)
- Putting (18%)
- SG: Putting short term (8%)
- Weighted combination of Putting at TPC Scottsdale, TPC Sawgrass, PGA West Stadium Course, Innisbrook, and TPC San Antonio (10%)
- Scoring Stats (10%)
- Par 5 Scoring (10%)
- Course History/Comp Courses
- TPC San Antonio (6%)
- TPC Summerlin (3%)
- TPC Scottsdale (2%)
Top 20
- Adam Hadwin
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Rory McIlroy
- Luke List
- Mito Pereira
- Corey Conners
- Martin Laird
- Jhonattan Vegas
- Russell Knox
- Matthew NeSmith
- Chris Kirk
- J.J. Spaun
- Patton Kizzire
- Pat Perez
- Aaron Rai
- Tony Finau
- Gary Woodland
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Abraham Ancer
- Andrew Putnam
Most over-valued based on expected price: Jordan Spieth (Rank: 48), Charley Hoffman (Rank: 113), Tony Finau (Rank: 16), Bryson DeChambeau (Rank: 18), Abraham Ancer (Rank: 19)
Most under-valued based on expected price: Adam Hadwin (Rank: 1), Luke List (Rank: 4), Mito Pereira (Rank: 5), Martin Laird (Rank: 7), J.J. Spaun (Rank: 12), Patton Kizzire (Rank: 13), Pat Perez (Rank: 14), Aaron Rai (Rank: 15), Andrew Putnam (Rank: 20), Doug Ghim (Rank: 22), Kramer Hickok (Rank: 25)
