By Andy Lack

2023 U.S. Open Course Breakdown: Los Angeles Country Club

The Basics 

• Course: Los Angeles Country Club
• Location: Los Angeles, California
• Designer: Herbert Fowler (1920), George C. Thomas & William Bell (1928) with a restoration from Gil Hanse, Jim Wagner, & Geoff Shackleford
• Length: Par 70; 7,423 yards
• Hazards: Water comes into play on 0 holes
• Fairways: TifWay Bermuda
• Rough: TifWay Bermuda, measuring 3 to 4 inches
• Greens: Bent-grass

How often is it that we see a top-10 golf course in the country smack dab in the middle of one of the biggest cities in the country? The list begins and ends with Los Angeles Country Club, an oasis just off Wilshire Boulevard in the center of Los Angeles. Designed by one of the golden age greats in George Thomas, Los Angeles Country Club is truly a one of one, and one of the most unique major championship venues that we have ever seen. Herbert Fowler laid out the initial designs for the North and South course in 1921, but then Thomas, a Los Angeles Country Club member, entered the picture to make a great deal of modifications. Thomas, a Philadelphia School disciple, was fresh off completing his own original designs at Bel Air and Riviera, and the experience he picked up working on those other Los Angeles staples ensured that this would be his most mature and advanced creation. Yet like many golf courses, Los Angeles Country Club eventually needed a major overhaul, as advances in technology and tree planting allowed the course to deviate from the integrity of Thomas’ original vision. That’s where Gil Hanse and famed historian, Geoff Shackleford, came in. Hanse and Shackleford’s 2006 restoration of Los Angeles Country Club is truly responsible for the restored movement, and it propelled Hanse to further restorations of other classical American masterpieces such as Merion, Oakmont, Winged Foot, Brookline, and Southern Hills. While Rees Jones may have been referred to as the “Open Doctor” in the 1970s, Hanse has truly taken the modern mantle.

This will be the first U.S. Open that Los Angeles Country Club has hosted. It was home to five Los Angeles Opens, the 1930 Women’s Amateur, the 1954 U.S. Junior Amateur, and most recently, the 2017 Walker Cup, where the winning U.S. side featured the likes of Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, and Will Zalatoris. Los Angeles Country Club also hosted the 2013 Pac 12 Championship, won by Max Homa, who still owns the course record of 61. The field also included Patrick Cantlay, who fired a 62 in his own right, as well as Jon Rahm, Patrick Rodgers, and eventual Los Angeles Country Club member and mid-Amateur king, Stewart Hagestand. The field averaged a scoring average of 73.29 on the week, and at the time, the course measured 7,326 yards. It is now 150 yards or so longer and narrowed in places as well.

Homa finished six clear that week of the next-best score, but before we pencil him in to the final group on Sunday, he did tell Geoff Shackleford in a recent interview that he has only returned to Los Angeles Country Club once in the decade in between the Pac-12 Championship and next week’s U.S. Open. Homa had some very interesting points in the Shackleford interview, “Los Angeles Country Club is a second-shot golf course similar to Riviera, but the value of the tee shot at Riviera is higher out there. The par three structure is a lot different out there than it is at Riviera, so I don’t see a ton of similarities other than being in the same city. They play very different, the grass types are not even close, so the ball — you could play the ball along the ground a lot at LA CC if you wanted to. I don’t see a ton of similarities.” Homa is right. I think people are really barking up the wrong tree with the Riviera comps. This is far more Augusta National meets Shinnecock.

The defining feature of Los Angeles Country Club is the barranca, which runs predominantly through the front nine and provides a significant amount of strategy. Thomas did a wonderful job of incorporating it strategically, so on some holes, players will have a diagonal carry over it (Hole #2). On other holes, it runs parallel to the fairway (Hole #17). One of the biggest reasons why Los Angeles Country Club is so special is the land that it inhabits. There is a central canyon, and you are playing in the canyon, into the canyon, out of the canyon, or on the ridges of the canyon. There are a ton of big slopes and topographically, it sits on a wonderful piece of land, while still never feeling too severe.

Many people will get thrown off by the gaudy scorecard yardage, but it’s important to keep in mind that holes are going to play very differently from day to day. One of the wonderful aspects of Los Angeles Country Club is the variety it provides in terms of setup options. For example, the par-five 14th hole can play as long as 623 yards, but I would not be surprised if the tee is moved up one day to allow players to give the green a shot in two. Another example is the par four fifth hole. The USGA’s Jeff Hall was quoted, “There’s a bunker in the front and the green extends around both sides of it, with a wonderful hole location on the front right. We wouldn’t ask players to hit a longer iron into that small portion of the green, but if you move the tee up by 15 or 20 yards, I think it’s reasonable to ask that question.” Inject it.

Before we dive into the what type of player profile we should be looking for this week, I want to take the time to truly explain what makes Los Angeles Country Club such a unique test compared to other U.S. major championship venues. If I was forced to distill the answer into words, I would use “width” and “firmness,” and I would begin by identifying the stark contrast between Los Angeles Country Club and last month’s major venue, Oak Hill. The greatest difference between Los Angeles Country Club and Oak Hill has to do with what I like to call “The Consequence of Misses.” Oak Hill featured extremely pinched-in fairways coupled with brutal rough, which created a homogenous bomb and gauge strategy, allowing players such as Bryson DeChambeau, Rory McIlroy, Cameron Davis, and Kurt Kitayama to find themselves on the first page of the leaderboard. Rory was able to finish seventh at Oak Hill despite a two-way miss off the tee because his 20-yard miss was penalized almost identically to Collin Morikawa’s two-yard miss. At Los Angeles Country Club, Rory’s 20-yard miss may be unplayable, and Morikawa’s two-yard miss will be in the short grass. This is one of the reasons why I believe that Los Angeles Country Club is the least distance-biased U.S. Open venue we have seen in years. It would have been criminal to not include distance in my Torrey Pines and Winged Foot models, but it will not be a factor for me this week. That is not to say that distance will not help. It helps at every golf course, including TPC Sawgrass and Harbour Town, but the degree of how much it will help here pales in comparison to previous U.S. major venues. So often we have seen USGA setups pinch in the fairways and grow the rough out comically, which can often result in a long-drive contest. What’s so exciting about Los Angeles Country Club is that no matter how hard the USGA tries to get their grubby mittens all over it, this is a golf course that can never be distilled to simply a driving contest. The firmness in the fairways will allow shorter players a much greater chance to compete than at previous PGA and USGA set-ups such as Torrey Pines, Oak Hill, Winged Foot, and Bethpage, which often felt like they could solely be won by a group of 10 players. Los Angeles Country Club will be a far more complete test of skill and acumen. Let’s quickly run through some trends and angles, and then dive into why.

Trends and Angeles 

• Every single one of the last 10 U.S. Open winners were ranked inside the top 30 in the OWGR. Six of the last 10 winners were ranked inside the top 10.
• The average age for a U.S. Open winner over the last 10 years is 28.3, seven years younger than the average age of an Open Championship winner.
• Each of the last 10 winners had already posted a top-25 in the event. Six of the last 10 winners had already finished top-10.
• The sweet spot for U.S. Open experience prior to winning is five to eight years, which applies to each of the last five champions.
• Nine of the last 10 winners had posted a top-10 in at least one of their previous two majors.
• Six of the last seven U.S. Open champions were first-time major winners, and seven of the last 10 were first-time major winners.
• Eight of the last 10 winners have posted a top-10 in one or both of their previous two starts.
• Seven of the last 10 winners had at least one week off in the last two weeks heading into the U.S. Open.
• West Coast bias? All five of the last West Coast major champions in the last decade have had a ton of previous success on the West Coast. Jon Rahm has been fantastic at Torrey Pines, Riviera, Kapalua, TPC Scottsdale, Pebble Beach, and PGA West. Collin Morikawa had won the Barracuda in Tahoe. Gary Woodland has had a ton of success at TPC Scottsdale, Kapalua, Waialae, and Harding Park. Jordan Spieth had been unbelievable at Pebble Beach and Kapalua, and Webb Simpson had been excellent in Phoenix and Kapalua.

Stats 

• Off the Tee 
  • I touched on this in the intro, but what makes Los Angeles Country Club so great is that it will not turn into a driving contest like previous USGA setups. I am certainly concerned with how a player drives the ball this week, but with how firm the turf is here this week, I’m not even weighting driving distance into my model. It still remains undeniable that recent off-the-tee form really does matter. I do want to identify players who are driving the ball well right now. Matt Fitzpatrick, Brooks Koepka (twice), Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Martin Kaymer and Justin Rose all ranked top-25 in total driving in their previous start prior to winning the U.S. Open. Fitzpatrick finished second in strokes gained off the tee the week prior to winning at Brookline, and Rahm ranked first in strokes gained off the tee prior to winning at Torrey Pines. The players in this field that are driving the ball the best right now are Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland, Keith Mitchell, Luke List, Gary Woodland, Cameron Young, Rory McIlroy, Hayden Buckley, and Tyrrell Hatton. 
  • The reason, however, that I believe distance and total driving is going to be less important here than at previous USGA setups is due to firmness, width, and the consequence of misses. In previous U.S. Opens, power off the tee has been king, with Spieth being the shortest player to win a U.S. Open in the last decade, and he still ranked 43rd in driving distance. It is worth noting that Spieth’s win came on a similarly unique, firm, and wide golf course in Chambers Bay. Cameron Smith also finished top-five at Chambers Bay, for what it’s worth.
  • Los Angeles Country Club is going to feature much wider fairways than we have seen at previous U.S. Open venues, staying true to the core Thomas principle that angles are incredibly important. Here’s a quote from Braden Thornberry, one of the members of the 2017 U.S. Walker Cup team, “The thing with this course too is about driving, there’s two or three tight tee shots, but they give you plenty of fairway most of the time, so it’s not super demanding, as far as you have to put it on a string. But it just really penalizes the bigger miss. Like on 2, it’s a big fairway, but if you do miss, you’re going to be wedging out, so it’s pretty important.”
  • Here’s another one from Walker Cupper, Andy Ingram, “So I think that with the length of the golf course anyway, you can’t much more aggressive than you need to because most holes I think we, most of us will be hitting drivers off tees and you’re naturally playing it to your full capacity anyway. It’s not your typical course where you can take over, hit some drives over trees or take on par fours or whatever or go for par fives in two.”
  • Players do not need to be deadly accurate at Los Angeles Country Club, but they do need to be able to keep the ball on the planet. I will consistently take a player that is able to avoid a big miss off the tee 10 times out of 10 this week over a player with a massive amount of pure power. This is why I found it incredibly astute to identify the players that do the best job of keeping the ball in play off the tee on firm golf courses. The best players in this field in good drive percentage on firm golf courses are Corey Conners, Scottie Scheffler, Ryan Armour, Gary Woodland, Jon Rahm, Mito Pereira, Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa, Matt Kuchar, and Si Woo Kim. 

• Approach
  • Like recent venues Oak Hill and Oakdale where we do not have clearly outlined proximity buckets, I did my best to go hole by hole and approximate where the highest amount of approach shots will come from on each hole. Los Angeles Country Club is an incredibly tough venue for this exercise given the firmness, differing of marine layer in the mornings and afternoons, as well as the elevation changes. Still, we nailed this at Oak Hill, and I feel very strongly that I am on the right track this week as well.
    • Inside 100 yards: 11% (Tour average: 10.5%)
    • 100-125 yards: 17% (Tour average: 11.8%)
    • 125-150 yards: 6% (Tour average: 17%)
    • 150-175 yards: 6% (Tour average: 20.3%)
    • 175-200 yards: 17% (Tour average: 17.5%)
    • 200 yards-plus: 44% (Tour average: 22.9%)
  • Even with the firmness of this turf, there will still be an incredible amount of long iron approaches at Los Angeles Country Club, due to the three par fives, three par threes that measure over 200 yards, and six par fours that measure over 480 yards. That alone accounts for 66% of the holes, but I’m not convinced that with booming drives, players will still find themselves with mid-iron approaches on some of the longer par fours. Still, Los Angeles Country Club is undeniably a long-iron-intensive golf course, a la Augusta National and most major championship venues these days. There will also be a larger plurality of short-iron approach shots as well, with 28% coming from 125 yards and in.
  • The best players in this field from 125 yards and in are Wyndham Clark, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Billy Horschel, Russell Henley, Collin Morikawa, Si Woo Kim, Tom Hoge, Paul Haley, and Eric Cole. 
  • The best players from 200 yards-plus in this field are Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Gary Woodland, Tom Hoge, Shane Lowry, Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, and Cameron Davis. 

• Around the Green 
  • Thomas & Bell bunkers are incredibly distinctive and the bunkers at Los Angeles Country Club will be among the most visually appealing aspects of the golf course. They have riveted edges with fine fescue, which will give a thinner, whispier-looking feel. Above it will be tall fescue, a taller, stockier blade. That texture is going to create an incredibly natural feel. The edges around the bunker will act as more of a hazard than inside the bunkers because of the riveting. Players will be begging for balls to get into the sand based on the range of outcomes from a ball that lands just outside of a bunker and contrasting, variable nature of the fescue and Bermuda. Those who get lucky enough to find the sand will really need to take advantage of an easier opportunity to get up and down. The best long-term bunker players in this field are Matt Kuchar, Andrew Putnam, Justin Rose, Si Woo Kim, Sungjae Im, Brian Harman, Patrick Rodgers, Tommy Fleetwood, Dylan Wu, and Jordan Spieth. 
  • There is also a ton of short grass around the greens here. This is not a golf course where players can just hide like Oak Hill and hit the same shot over and over again. The run-off areas and firmness of the turf will require a ton of creativity in terms of short game shot selection. The best players in this field around the green on firm golf courses have been Chris Kirk, Russell Henley, Tommy Fleetwood, Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, Si Woo Kim, Justin Thomas, Cameron Smith, Matt Kuchar, and Max Homa. 

• Putting 
  • One of the defining features at Los Angeles Country Club are its greens. They feature a number of cool little capes and very small sections where the USGA will be able to absolutely bury certain pin positions. The greens here sit on so much slope and have a ton of tilt to them because of the land that this piece of property sits on. This is not the type of golf course where if you are 20 feet left or right, you are going to have a fairly flat putt. For comparison’s sake, I do believe an expertise in putting will be far more important here than at Oak Hill. These greens are way more challenging to figure out.
  • Here’s a quote from Harvey Ellis, team member of Great Britain and Ireland at the 2017 Walker Cup, “But again, with the greens as fast as they are and we have had to adapt to them, they’re pretty quick, some of the quickest I’ve ever putted on, there is going to be a huge putting element to it.”
  • I expect lag putting to be very challenging this week. These aren’t necessarily Augusta-esque greens with big, severe sections, but there’s more of a gradual tilt. Still, it’s a far cry from what we are used to on the PGA Tour. The best approach putters in this field are Eric Cole, Scottie Scheffler, Keegan Bradley, Justin Suh, Chris Kirk, Nicolas Echavarria, Sam Burns, Jason Day, Andrew Putnam, and Adam Hadwin. 
  • Players often discuss how because of the low greens-in-regulation percentage and challenging green-side surrounds, we will see far more 5- to 10-footers for par this week than we are used. These are absolutely crucial putts to not allow the round to get off the rails. The best putters in this field from 5 to 10 feet are Taylor Moore, Taylor Montgomery, Denny McCarthy, Andrew Putnam, Harris English, Matt Kuchar, Patrick Cantlay, Ryan Fox, Justin Suh, and Jason Day. 
  • Of course, an expertise on Bent-grass is also preferable. The best Bent-grass putters in this field over the past two years have been Patrick Cantlay, Denny McCarthy, Cameron Smith, Alex Noren, Justin Rose, Justin Suh, Sam Burns, Rory McIlroy, Tyrrell Hatton, and Patrick Rodgers. 

• Scoring Stats 
  • The last three winning scores at Gil Hanse restoration major championships (Winged Foot, Southern Hills, Merion) have been six-under par, and I would not be the least bit surprised if that is the case this week again. Another reason why Los Angeles Country Club is so different from Oak Hill is the fact that there are more scoring opportunities at the former, and good shots are truly rewarded. If someone is playing great golf, they should absolutely be able to separate themselves from the field. I expect us to see a few 65s and 66s from great players, and also a lot of 75s and 76s from great players as well. There is far more space off the tee at Los Angeles Club, and I expect to see some separation on the leaderboard and a dynamic range of scores. I’m not sure I envision this being the typical U.S. Open grind-fest of pars and bogeys that we have become accustomed to over the last couple of years.
  • Another reason for the variance in scores is the barranca as a central hazard. There really is the potential for a lost ball in there because of the thickness of the vegetation, which has me leaning toward identifying players that are the best at avoiding big numbers. At Oak Hill, we saw a ton of pars and bogeys, at Los Angeles Country Club, we are going to see far more birdies and doubles because of the width, severity of hazards, and uncapped range of outcomes. As opposed to looking at metrics such as bogey avoidance and difficult scoring conditions, I am far more inclined to identify the players that are best at avoiding big numbers and also have scoring potential. The best players in a weighted combination of birdies or better gained and doubles avoided are Collin Morikawa, Scottie Scheffler, Denny McCarthy, Keegan Bradley, Shane Lowry, Jon Rahm, Carson Young, Rory McIlroy, K.H. Lee, and Viktor Hovland. 
  • This time of year in Los Angeles is not very windy at all either, so we cannot expect that to be a huge factor. The weather is going to be fairly predictable, with the mornings being extremely calm. The only question is whether the marine layer and June gloom will keep some of the moisture in these greens. Still, I would imagine that the USGA knows it’s dealing with a wider golf course, and they still have far too much pride to let scoring get out of control. I would wager Los Angeles Country Club still plays very firm and fast, and it will be important to identify players this week who have found a modicum of success on firm golf courses. The best players in this field in firm conditions over the past three years have been Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Max Homa, Patrick Cantlay, Tyrrell Hatton, Justin Thomas, and Wyndham Clark. 

• Course History/Comp Course History 
  • Augusta National has been thrown around a lot this week as a potential reference point, and I certainly see the similarities myself. Both Los Angeles Country Club and Augusta traverse incredible pieces of land with a great deal of elevation changes. There is a lot of width and short grass at both properties, and long-iron play and short game are essential at both. Particularly the firmer Masters that we have seen in recent years can serve as a very worthy comparison. The best players in this field at Augusta over the last six years have been Jon Rahm, Patrick Reed, Dustin Johnson, Rickie Fowler, Rory McIlroy, Cameron Smith, Scottie Scheffler, Brooks Koepka, Hideki Matsuyama, and Jordan Spieth. 
  • While there are certainly some crucial differences to the recently restored (by Gil Hanse) Southern Hills, host of the 2022 PGA Championship, the Perry Maxwell classic is still a wide golf course with Bermuda-based fairways and rough, Bent-grass greens, and tons of short grass. Southern Hills played firm, and I expect Los Angeles Country Club to play even firmer (with faster greens as well). The players that finished top-20 at Southern Hills last year who will be in the field this week include Justin Thomas, Mito Pereira, Cameron Young, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, Chris Kirk, Rory McIlroy, Seamus Power, Tom Hoge, Abraham Ancer, Xander Schauffele, Cameron Smith, Max Homa, Tyrrell Hatton, and Justin Rose. 
  • Shinnecock Hills is another recent venue that I would throw into the mix because of its firmness, width, consequence of misses, and short grass. The main differentiating factor between the two is that wind played such a major factor at Shinnecock, and I am expecting fairly benign conditions at Los Angeles Country Club. Still, the players in this field that finished top-20 at Shinnecock include Brooks Koepka, Tommy Fleetwood, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, Tony Finau, Tyrrell Hatton, Xander Schauffele, Justin Rose, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Hideki Matsuyama. 
  • Chambers Bay is another somewhat West Coast U.S. Open venue that has many shades of Los Angeles Country Club in it as well. Chambers was incredibly wide, incredibly firm, and traversed a property with a ton of elevation changes. The players in this field that finished top-20 at Chambers Bay include Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, Adam Scott, Cameron Smith, Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, Shane Lowry, Matt Kuchar, Tony Finau, Patrick Reed, Brooks Koepka, Hideki Matsuyama, and Sergio Garcia. 
  • Another golf course that I have not heard mentioned a lot that I do believes bears a great deal in common with Los Angeles Country Club is Pinehurst No. 2, site of the 2014 U.S. Open. Both are sand-based golf courses that have some width to them, play extremely firm and fast with a ton of slick edges, tilt to the greens, and surrounding short grass. Pinehurst is not as topographically challenging as Los Angeles Country Club, but I believe an extremely similar skill-set will be required at both. The players in this field that finished top-20 at the 2014 U.S. Open at Pinehurst include Martin Kaymer, Rickie Fowler, Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Keegan Bradley, Brooks Koepka, Adam Scott, Justin Rose, Matt Kuchar, and Jordan Spieth. 
  • Finally, there’s a really interesting Merion corollary that I want to point out as well. Both are Gil Hanse restorations that feature a ton of quirkiness, extremely short and extremely long holes, some very fascinating topography, thick grass around the greens, distinctive bunkering, and a primary hazard traversing through the property. The biggest difference is that Los Angeles Country Club has a lot more width, but that same element of creativity and shot-making will come into play at both. The players in this field that finished top-20 at Merion include Justin Rose, Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, and Hideki Matsuyama. 

Model 

• Off the Tee (13%)
  • Good Drive Percentage Firm Golf Courses (6%)
  • Recent Off the Tee Play (7%)
• Approach (28%)
  • Strokes Gained Approach (12%)
  • Proximity 200 yards plus (12%)
  • Proximity 100-125 yards (4%)
• Around the Green (15%)
  • Recent Around the Green Play (5%)
  • Strokes Gained Around the Green Firm Golf Courses (5%)
  • Sand Saves (5%)
• Putting (14%)
  • Bent-grass Putting (6%)
  • Approach Putting (4%)
  • Putting 5-10 Feet (4%)
• Scoring Stats (12%)
  • Strokes Gained Total: Firm Golf Courses (7%)
  • Doubles Avoided (5%)
• Comp Courses/Course History (18%)
  • Augusta National (3%)
  • Southern Hills (3%)
  • Shinnecock Hills (3%)
  • Merion (3%)
  • Chambers Bay (3%)
  • Pinehurst No. 2 (3%)

Top 20 

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Xander Schauffele
3. Jon Rahm
4. Patrick Cantlay
5. Tony Finau
6. Mito Pereira
7. Scottie Scheffler
8. Tyrrell Hatton
9. Shane Lowry
10. Max Homa
11. Justin Rose
12. Wyndham Clark
13. Collin Morikawa
14. Sungjae Im
15. Viktor Hovland
16. Justin Thomas
17. Tommy Fleetwood
18. Si Woo Kim
19. Jordan Spieth
20. Hideki Matsuyama