By Andy Lack

2023 RBC Canadian Open Course Breakdown: Oakdale Golf Club

The Basics 

• Course: Oakdale Golf Club
• Location: North York, Ontario, Canada
• Designer: Stanley Thompson (1926), Robbie Robinson (1957), Ian Andrew
• Length: Par 72; 7,387 yards
• Hazards: Water comes into play on 2 holes
• Fairways: Bent-grass
• Rough: Blue-grass
• Greens: Bent-grass

The RBC Canadian Open is a professional golf tournament held annually in Canada by Golf Canada and the PGA Tour. It was first played in 1904 and has been held annually since then, making it the longest running men’s professional tournament outside of the Open Championship and U.S. Open. The Canadian Open is a tournament with a ton of history, and it has been won by the likes of Walter Hagen, Sam Snead, Byron Nelson, Arnold Palmer, Greg Norman, Vijay Singh, Tiger Woods, and Rory McIlroy, among others. It has moved around on the schedule a fair amount before settling in early June, prior to the U.S. Open. It has moved around a number of different golf courses as well, including Royal Montreal, Toronto Golf Club, Glen Abbey, Hamilton Golf Club, and most recently, St. George’s Golf and Country Club. We will, however, be presented with a never-before-seen venue for the 2023 event, Oakdale Golf Club.

Oakdale was founded in 1926 when a group of Toronto businessmen purchased a farm north of Toronto. Oakdale hired famed Canadian designer Stanley Thompson to craft the initial nine holes, with him adding another nine a few years later. Canadian designer Robbie Robinson added the final nine in 1957. In recent years, the property has been restored by Ian Andrew, Canada’s most notable restoration architect. Andrew did a fairly typical restoration, took out trees, restored the bunkers, added some length, and re-imagined Thompson’s original vision. Thompson is an architect that I have a tremendous amount of respect for, and he has designed 144 courses in Canada, and another 25 in the United States. He did design St. George’s, the host course of this event last year, which I do believe has a decent amount in common with Oakdale. Both Robbie Robinson and Ian Andrew also spent time at St. George’s as well.

There’s not a ton of info online on Oakdale, but the website does have flyovers of every single hole. Through that, and some time on Google Earth, I felt like I was able to get a fairly decent understanding of the nature of this golf course. Overall, I would imagine that we see a similar setup to recent Canadian Opens in the past. Narrow fairways, thicker rough, but extremely gettable par fives and a large plurality of shorter par fours, which should still translate to a winning score in the high teens or low twenties under par. Before we dive into how to handicap this course statistically, here are some notes on every hole at Oakdale.

Hole by Hole Notes 

• Hole 1: Par 4 (379 yards)
  • Elevated tee shot down into a valley, with an approach shot back up to an elevated green. You can either lay up into the fairway, or mash driver up close to the green and play a little uphill chip shot. Definite birdie opportunity right out of the gates.
• Hole 2: Par 4 (366 yards)
  • Easy driving hole, but a tricky wedge to a very narrow green surrounded by bunkers. Another flip wedge. Kind of a tricky green, but still another obvious birdie chance.
• Hole 3: Par 4 (494 yards)
  • After two really gettable holes, the fourth is a beast. Tough driving hole to a narrow fairway. Very tree-lined, cannot just bomb away. Long iron approach shot to a green sloping hard from left to right. Par is a good score.
• Hole 4: Par 4 (470 yards)
  • Elevated tee shot back down into a valley. The hole narrows the farther you get down the fairway, so again, not a hole where players can bomb away aimlessly. The approach shot is uphill to a green surrounded by bunkers, with a major false front. Nearly as difficult as No. 3.
• Hole 5: Par 4 (470 yards)
  • A third long par four in a row played over some of the best land on the course. The approach shot is to an elevated green surrounded by bunkers. Green is sloped from back to front. Long is dead. Will absolutely be one of the hardest holes on the course. Maybe the best hole on the course too.
• Hole 6: Par 4 (539 yards)
  • Short par five that has been converted to another long par four. Three through six is an absolutely insane stretch. Any player that can come out of it in even par is likely picking up significant ground on the field. The approach shot is uphill to one of the smallest greens on the course. If they really choose to use this 540-yard tee, this will absolutely be the hardest hole on the course. Par four and a half hole.
• Hole 7: Par 5 (590 yards)
  • Finally, the first non-par four on the course. It will certainly be interesting to see how many players go for this one in two as there is a lot going on around the green here. The fairway falls hard from left to right, and drives without draw spin may be hard to hold the short grass. If you are in a position to go for the green, it’s all carry because the green is very elevated with a false front, bunkers on the left, and a falloff in the back as well. It’s one of the smallest greens on the golf course too. My guess is that it actually does end up being a three-shot hole for most, but you never know with these guys anymore.
• Hole 8: Par 4 (360 yards)
  • This hole slopes to the left. Some players may attempt to drive it close to the green here. The green is very steep and it’s much easier to hit a short pitch shot than a full wedge shot. Front pins will be somewhat diabolical, but pins in the back of the green will be a lot easier. Definite birdie hole.
• Hole 9: Par 3 (193 yards)
  • First par three on the course. Elevated green that’s surrounded by bunkers. Two-tiered green surface. Absolutely need a well-struck iron here. All three of the par threes should play pretty tough. Par is not a bad score here.
• Hole 10: Par 4 (367 yards)
  • Very simple drive and pitch hole. Good birdie opportunity. Green sits in a bowl, with a bit of a false front. Back pins are very accessible, front pins are a lot more challenging.
• Hole 11: Par 3 (208 yards)
  • Very challenging par three. Green slopes heavily from right to left and is well guarded by bunkers. Also features a false front. Lot of undulation on this green, a proper par three. Par will be a very good score here.
• Hole 12: Par 5 (565 yards)
  • Definitely reachable in two, but the second shot is blind and uphill. I would imagine that nearly every player in the field does go for the green. May play as the easiest hole on the course.
• Hole 13: Par 4 (430 yards)
  • Mid-length par four with a new back tee. Still going to be a very straightforward, driver-short iron hole. Another great birdie opportunity.
• Hole 14: Par 3 (194 yards)
  • Another strong par three. The green slopes very strongly from back to front. Will require a very well struck iron shot to a green with some decent undulation.
• Hole 15: Par 4 (424 yards)
  • Another mid-length par four, with a relatively wide-open driving area. A well bunkered but fairly flat green. Another very straightforward, driver-wedge hole.
• Hole 16: Par 4 (401 yards)
  • Just a very straightforward … wait for it … driver-wedge hole. It’s all out in front of you and here for the taking. Another great birdie opportunity.
• Hole 17: Par 4 (437 yards)
  • Most should clear the right-side bunkers with their drive. Somewhat challenging green with good pin position options. Guarded by two deep bunkers in front. Harder than 15 and 16, but not by much.
• Hole 18: Par 4 (500 yards)
  • A converted par five that will now play as a long par four. It’s a tough driving hole where players will have to fit it in a well-placed bunker and a creek. Players will have to choose between laying back and leaving themselves a very long iron into a very elevated green, or try and play it into Knutson’s alley and take on the creek. The second route will leave a much easier approach. The 18th may be the most heavily contoured green on the course and could be a very difficult two putt if you are on the wrong tier.

Stats 

• Off the Tee 
  • Off the tee, Oakdale does appear to have a lot in common with St. George’s, a golf course that many thought would be all about accuracy due to the extremely thick nature of the rough. St. George’s featured the 14th-most narrow fairways on Tour last year and ranked fifth out of 38 courses in missed fairway penalty, third in rough penalty, and third in non-rough penalty. A leaderboard populated by Rory McIlroy, Tony Finau, Justin Thomas, Sam Burns, Keith Mitchell, and Wyndham Clark certainly threw many off the scent that St. George’s was a bomber’s paradise. Every single one of the aforementioned players gained at least three strokes putting, and 30 of the top 35 gained in fairway percentage. In fairness, there were a lot of bombers at the top of the leaderboard as well, as nine of the top-10 gained to the field in driving distance, so despite the fact that the penalty for missing the fairway was severe, long and accurate driving did prove to be important. If I had to guess on Oakdale, a similar situation off the tee will likely play out. I’m cautious to strongly favor distance over accuracy here, or accuracy over distance. I would rather turn my attention to an overall total driving metric. I do believe that there are opportunities to be aggressive on this course, but this is also not a wide-open oasis where big misses are welcome and trees and rough will not be a hindrance. The best total drivers in this field are Luke List, Tyrrell Hatton, Keith Mitchell, Cameron Young, Brent Grant, Rory McIlroy, Corey Conners, Cameron Champ, Samuel Stevens, and Davis Thompson. 

• Approach
  • I went through hole by hole and did my best approximation of the proximity distances of approach shots. Keep in mind that these are AVERAGES, although my Oak Hill predictions did turn out to be very accurate!
    • Inside 100 yards: 27.8% (Tour average: 10.3%)
    • 100-125 yards: 11% (Tour average: 11.8%)
    • 125-150 yards: 11% (Tour average: 17%)
    • 150-175 yards: 0% (Tour average: 20.3%)
    • 175-200 yards: 27.8% (Tour average: 17.5%)
    • 200 yards-plus: 22.9% (Tour average: 22%)
  • As you can see, Oakdale is a wedges and long irons course. I was very alarmed by the amount of flip wedges that players will have on this course, but that’s what happens when you have five par fours under 400 yards, and four under 380 yards. Oakdale is balanced out by three longer par threes, and five par fours that measure over 500 yards, with very few medium-length par fours and par threes, eliminating a great deal of middle iron play. The proximity buckets we want to focus on are inside 100 yards and 175 yards-plus.
  • The best players in this field inside 100 yards are Lucas Glover, Russell Knox, Ben Martin, Andrew Novak, Ryan Moore, Brendon Todd, David Lipsky, Austin Cook, Davis Riley, and Webb Simpson. 
  • The best players in this field from 175-200 yards are Chez Reavie, Taylor Pendrith, Lucas Glover, Will Gordon, Rory McIlroy, Nate Lashley, Justin Rose, Samuel Stevens, Tommy Fleetwood, and Zecheng Dou. 

• Around the Green 
  • While I do believe that this golf course will feature a fairly high greens-in-regulation percentage with many short holes, Stanley Thompson and Ian Andrew have always done a really fine job with their bunkering. Last year, St. George’s ranked third out of 38 courses on Tour in around-the-green difficulty from the rough, and Oakdale is just as heavily bunkered. I would not suggest going heavily on around-the-green play as I expect a high greens-in-regulation percentage, but a small weight on sand save percentage certainly feels worthwhile. The best bunker players in this field are Matt Kuchar, Robby Shelton, Justin Rose, Byeong Hun An, S.H. Kim, Ben Griffin, Austin Cook, Peter Malnati, Dylan Wu, and Tommy Fleetwood. 

• Putting 
  • I’m not keen to necessarily call this event a putting contest, but looking at the winning scores over the past decade, tournament officials have struggled to prove solid protection of par against the best in the world. Last year at St. George’s, which I believe is an objectively more difficult golf course than this, every single player in the top 10 gained over two strokes putting. First place finisher Rory McIlroy gained 5.9 strokes putting, runner-up Tony Finau gained 6.4. Fourth place finisher Justin Rose gained 8.7, and seventh place finisher Wyndham Clark gained a whopping 10.9 strokes putting. St. George’s actually did rank seventh in putting difficulty inside five feet, eighth in putting difficulty from five to 15 feet, and 24th in putting difficulty from 15 feet-plus. Thompson knows how to design undulating greens and provide some character on his putting surfaces, and I will absolutely be looking to target players with strong Bent-grass resumes. The best Bent-grass putters in this field are Brendon Todd, Seung-yul Noh, Justin Lower, Austin Cook, Justin Rose, Maverick McNealy, Rory McIlroy, Sam Burns, Mackenzie Hughes, and Tyrrell Hatton. 

• Scoring Stats 
  • At the most elementary level, I do believe that Oakdale is going to be easy. I thought that St. George’s was going to play a fair bit harder than it did, and Rory McIlroy had zero problem getting to 19-under. In a vacuum, Oakdale is an easier golf course than St. George’s, and thus I have no reason to believe that the winning score this week will not be in the ballpark of 22 to 25 under par. We absolutely want to identify birdie-makers and those who thrive in easier scoring conditions. The players that make the most birdies on average per round are Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young, Tyrrell Hatton, Justin Rose, Akshay Bhatia, Ben Martin, Sahith Theegala, Tommy Fleetwood, Dylan Wu, and Corey Conners. 
  • The players who have performed the best over the last three years in easy scoring conditions are Rory McIlroy, Sam Burns, Aaron Wise, Corey Conners, Greyson Sigg, Mark Hubbard, Cameron Young, Matt Kuchar, Tyrrell Hatton, and Akshay Bhatia. 
  • On any course with a large plurality of wedge shots (over 50% of Oakdale’s approach shots should come below 150 yards), I want to identify the players that give themselves the most birdie looks per round. The leaders in this field in opportunities gained are Rory McIlroy, Shane Lowry, Corey Conners, Cameron Young, Tyrrell Hatton, Ben Martin, Davis Riley, Ryan Gerard, Charley Hoffman, and David Lipsky. 

• Comp Courses/Course History 
  • St. George’s deserves immediate consideration because both Oakdale and last year’s host were Stanley Thompson, Robbie Robinson, and Ian Andrew designs with similar aesthetics and agronomy. I know that Oakdale is a par 72 and St. George’s is a par 70, but both courses actually feature a similar mix of short and long holes. I had initially thought that St. George’s was more of an accuracy golf course, and it still ended up feeling like powerful drivers of the ball had an advantage as they were able to club down and take advantage of their position off the tee. Both St. George’s and Oakdale are still absolutely golf courses where shorter players can compete, and I would expect scoring this year to come in similar to what we saw in 2022, if not easier. The players in this field that finished top-25 at St. George’s were Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose, Sam Burns, Corey Conners, Keith Mitchell, Shane Lowry, Matt Fitzpatrick, Brendon Todd, Aaron Rai, Austin Cook, Kelly Kraft, Doug Ghim, Alex Smalley, and Adam Svensson. 
  • Detroit Golf Club, host of the Rocket Mortgage, was the other golf course that immediately came to mind as a reference point to Oakdale. Both courses feature similar agronomy and easy scoring conditions. I would imagine Oakdale has a similarly high greens-in-regulation percentage, and while Thompson’s green designs may not quite be at the level of Ross, there is still a ton of character on Oakdale’s putting surfaces. The best players in this field at Detroit Golf Club have been Cameron Young, Taylor Pendrith, Troy Merritt, Nate Lashley, Stephan Jaeger, Tyrrell Hatton, Henrik Norlander, Maverick McNealy, Doc Redman, and Lanto Griffin. 
  • The other golf course that I would site with a high greens-in-regulation percentage, Bent-grass putting surfaces, and similar scoring conditions would be TPC Craig Ranch, host of the Byron Nelson Championship. There’s a little more room off the tee at TPC Craig Ranch, but I would imagine a similar strategy off the tee can be deployed. The best players in this field at TPC Craig Ranch have been C.T. Pan, Tyrrell Hatton, Zecheng Dou, Sam Burns, Matt Kuchar, Joseph Bramlett, Stephan Jaeger, Vincent Norrman, Peter Malnati, and Davis Riley. 

Model 

• Off the Tee (9%)
  • Total Driving (9%)
• Approach (35%)
  • Strokes Gained Approach (14%)
  • Proximity Inside 100 yards (8%)
  • Proximity 175-200 yards (8%)
  • Proximity 200 yards-plus (5%)
• Around the Green (5%)
  • Sand Save Percentage (5%)
• Putting (15%)
  • Strokes Gained Putting: Bent-grass (15%)
• Scoring Stats (24%)
  • Birdies or Better Gained (8%)
  • Opportunities Gained (8%)
  • Strokes Gained Total: Easy Scoring Conditions (8%)
• Comp Courses/Course History (12%)
  • St. George’s (6%)
  • Detroit Golf Club (3%)
  • TPC Craig Ranch (3%)

Top 20 

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Shane Lowry
3. Justin Rose
4. Corey Conners
5. Tyrrell Hatton
6. Akshay Bhatia
7. Eric Cole
8. Davis Riley
9. Cameron Young
10. Mark Hubbard
11. Adam Svensson
12. Keith Mitchell
13. Tommy Fleetwood
14. Matt Kuchar
15. Adam Hadwin
16. Stephan Jaeger
17. David Lipsky
18. Samuel Stevens
19. Sam Burns
20. Nick Taylor