By Andy Lack

2023 Course Breakdown: Port Royal  

The Basics 

• Course: Port Royal Golf Course
• Location: Southampton Parish, Bermuda
• Designer: Robert Trent Jones (1970). Robert Trent Jones renovation (1995), Robert Rulewich renovation (2008)
• Length: Par 71; 6,828 yards
• Hazards: Water comes into play on five holes
• Fairways: 419 Bermuda-grass
• Rough: 419 St. Augustine Zoysia, measuring two inches
• Greens: TifEagle Bermuda-grass measuring 6,000 square feet on average

The Butterfield Bermuda Championship is a relatively new professional golf tournament held on the PGA Tour that debuted in October 2019 as part of the 2020 season. The event has been held the past three years at Port Royal Golf Course in Southampton Parish, Bermuda. Originally designed to be an alternate event opposite the WGC – HSBC Championship, the tournament was elevated in 2021 to be a standalone event as the result of successive cancellations of the WGC due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The tournament now awards 500 FedEx Cup points, a prize fund of upwards of seven million dollars, and an invitation to the Masters.

A strong case could be made that weeks like these, with terrible fields and smack dab in the middle of football season, present the most opportunity for us in the gambling and DraftKings community that are willing to do the legwork. While I certainly agree with this sentiment, and I do plan on betting and playing daily fantasy this week, the issue with this specific event is that there is very little predictive value. Brendon Todd won the inaugural event in 2019 at 100/1 after missing three of his last four cuts. Brian Gay won in 2020 at 200/1 coming off four straight missed cuts! Lucas Herbert won in 2021 at 80/1 after missing back-to-back cuts to start the season. Seamus Power won last year as one of the tournament favorites at 18/1, but he was still coming in with terrible form, with zero top-20 finishes in his last eight starts.

It’s not simply just the weak field that makes this tournament such a challenge to predict. The Bermuda Championship is also one of the most wind-affected events on the schedule. 2019 saw benign conditions, and Brendon Todd cruised to victory at 24-under par. Yet 2020 and 2021 saw more challenging conditions, as Brian Gay and Lucas Herbert both triumphed at 15 under par, a nine-stroke difference from 2019. Even day to day, wind can greatly affect scoring. In round two in 2021, Taylor Pendrith threatened a 59 in amiable conditions. He was not so lucky on Sunday, battling brutal conditions en route to a 76. That same year, Sahith Theegala shot a 66 on Friday and an 80 on Sunday. It’s nearly impossible for a PGA Tour pro to experience a difference of 15 strokes in a two-day stretch, but variance like this is commonplace at Port Royal. Last year was a little more consistent, but even Sunday provided much tougher conditions that what we saw in the first three rounds. I say all of this to highlight the fact that we can break down this course until we are blue in the face, but I would exercise caution with placing any bets until we receive an accurate weather report later in the week. I will do a full breakdown of the weather in my Wednesday DraftKings article, but for now, let’s just focus on the course.

On paper, Port Royal is about as easy of a golf course as players will face on the PGA Tour all season. At 6,828 yards, it’s the shortest course on the entire PGA Tour schedule. The main challenge of Port Royal is the quartet of par threes, as three of the four one-shooters measure over 210 yards and rank as the three hardest holes on the course. The 13th and 16th both measure 235 yards on the scorecard, play almost a quarter stroke over par, and rank as the hardest two holes on the entire course. On the other hand, the par fours are a complete cakewalk. Six of the 11 par fours at Port Royal measure under 400 yards, and only one measures over 460 yards. Port Royal features the shortest set of par fours on the entire PGA Tour schedule, and depending on wind, there’s a chance that players will have a short-iron approach on every single one of them. The par fives essentially play as par 4.5s and rank as the three easiest holes on the course. The 17th and 7th both barely measure over 500 yards on the scorecard and feature over a 40% birdie rate and a 3.5% eagle rate. Players are completely losing to the field if they play the par fives in greater than 13 strokes.

Under benign conditions, it’s fairly simple to identify the type of profile that we should be looking for here: elite wedge players and Bermuda-grass putters who consistently raise their baseline in easier scoring conditions. The wind, however, adds another added wrinkle. I created a model based on the assumption that we will see similar conditions to what we have experienced the last three years. Port Royal is potentially the easiest golf course on Tour in calm conditions, but it can turn into an absolute grind in high winds, which are commonplace in this area of Bermuda. My guess is that we will see extremely easy conditions for the majority of this tournament, with a few pockets of high winds. As previously mentioned, I’ll have a much better sense of this when we get a full weather report closer to tee off. Let’s dive into the stats.

Stats 

• Off the Tee 
  • I remember after the first two years of this event, the common narrative was that any course where Brendon Todd and Brian Gay could win in back to back years was a definitive accuracy over distance track. That idea got thrown for a bit of a loop the following year, when the 2021 leaderboard was more populated by bombers. In the Lucas Herbert year, the top five players on the leaderboard all gained to the field in driving distance. The top 10 players in driving distance all made the cut and had an average leaderboard position of 25.9. If we contrast that with driving accuracy, three of the top five players on the leaderboard lost to the field in driving accuracy. Zero top players in the top 10 in that field in driving accuracy finished in the top 10 in the tournament. At least in 2021, there was a noticeable correlation between driving distance and finishing position, but zero evidence that hitting the fairway at an elite rate was translatable to success.
  • If we rewind to 2021 however, five of the top 10 players on the leaderboard, including winner, Brian Gay, lost to the field in driving distance, but second- and third-place finishers, Wyndham Clark and Ollie Schniederjans, both finished in the top eight in driving distance and lost to the field in driving accuracy. On the contrary, first- and fourth-place finishers, Brian Gay and Denny McCarthy, both ranked in the top 10 in driving accuracy and lost to the field in driving distance.
  • Last year, the top five players all gained to the field in driving distance, but the next five players all lost to the field in that same category. Seamus Power and Thomas Detry both gained to the field in driving distance but lost in driving accuracy. Of the top 10 players in driving distance, nine made the cut, but just three finished in the top 25 of the leaderboard. Of the top 10 in driving accuracy, nine made the cut, but just three finished in the top 25. The correlation was negligible in either skill.
  • Ultimately, every year this tournament has been played, there are examples of bombers experiencing just as much success as shorter, accurate types. I don’t see a ton of value in looking too deeply at either driving distance or accuracy as a key stat this week. We have seen players who are completely deficient in each category still experience their fair share of success at Port Royal. Three years of data is still far too small of a sample size for us to make any broad generalizations about what type of skill set this golf course truly favors, especially when the main character trait of the course has nothing to do with the architecture. The best conclusion I can come to is that all shapes and sizes can compete at Port Royal. Distance helps everywhere and there is enough room off the tee here that we will likely see far more drivers at Port Royal than we would at the other sub- 7,000-yard courses on the schedule. 
    • Brian Gay outlined how shorter players were hardly disadvantaged, “It’s not a long golf course. It’s a golf course where I get a lot of short clubs and you can’t really overpower the course. It keeps the shorter hitters in the game, everybody has a chance here.” 
    • Brendon Todd echoed a similar sentiment, “I mean, this golf course is good for me. It’s one of the shorter ones we play on Tour and it forces everybody to hit the ball with the same clubs off the tee because there’s cross bunkers in certain places. The good thing about that for me is, I’m hitting the same clubs into greens as everybody else and for some reason that tends to work out well in my favor. So the course is good for me, for my game, and I’ve been swinging well.” 
      • Todd brings up how cross bunkers force everyone to hit the same clubs off every tee, but we see this in the way that shorter players talk about Colonial as well. For whatever reason, shorter hitters always mis-calculate a longer player’s strategy off the tee. Driving accuracy at Port Royal is only 55.9% compared to the Tour average of 61%, and the fairways aren’t even all that narrow. This tell me that players are still pulling driver often and have little concern for the two-inch Zoysia rough. Distance certainly helps at Port Royal, but the main point is that shorter hitters aren’t dead on arrival the way they are at other courses.
    • Finally, Jim Furyk: “It’s not power, this golf course, power has nothing to do with playing well on this golf course.” 
  • I would imagine the pendulum swings back too far in the other direction, and folks see more names such as Thomas Detry and Taylor Pendrith popping up here and subsequently overrate the importance of distance. Similar to TPC Summerlin and Pebble Beach, I actually think what players do off the tee at Port Royal is of very little importance. Aaron Baddeley finished sixth last year losing significantly in both driving distance and driving accuracy. Players can pretty much do whatever they want off the tee here. Large misses aren’t really penalized, and neither is a lack of distance. All strategies are welcome, and the emphasis at Port Royal falls squarely on the second shot.

• Approach 
  • Port Royal features fairly large greens for such a short course, with a greens-in-regulation percentage nearing almost 70%. Even with swirling winds, players will have a flip wedge on up to 60% of their approach shots, which explains the high greens-in-regulation percentage.
  • Although we do not have shot-tracker on this course, I went through hole by hole to best determine where approach shots would be coming from. Here’s what I came up with:
    • Inside 100 yards: 28% (Tour average: 10.5%)
    • 100-125 yards: 17% (Tour average: 11.8%)
    • 125-150 yards: 17% (Tour average: 17%)
    • 150-175 yards: 6% (Tour average: 20.3%)
    • 175-200 yards: 0% (Tour average: 17.5%)
    • 200 yards plus: 33% (Tour average: 22.9%)
  • Port Royal is an incredibly unique golf course in that over 60% of approach shots come from inside 150 yards, virtually none come from between 150 and 200 yards, and due to the three long par threes and three reachable par fives, we will see a ton of long irons here as well. There are two par threes coming down the stretch where players will need to step up and hit a 235-yard shot. While wedge play certainly reigns supreme, there are still five guaranteed important long iron shots throughout the round.
    • The best overall long-iron players in this field are Augusto Nunez, Kevin Tway, Peter Kuest, Charley Hoffman, Luke List, Austin Smotherman, Paul Haley II, Tommy Gainey, Matthias Schmid, and Ryan Palmer. 
    • The best overall wedge players in this field (125 yards and in) are Brendon Todd, Hank Lebioda, Russell Knox, Ben Martin, Patton Kizzire, Lucas Glover, Ryan Moore, Stewart Cink, Ryan Armour, and Austin Cook. 

• Around the Green 
  • It’s difficult to make a strong case for short game as a fundamental part of our handicapping process in any tournament typically won at 15-under par or lower. While Port Royal still features a slightly lower than average greens in regulation percentage, it was a challenge to find any major correlation between sand saves/any other around the green metric and success at this event. If I was to look at any short game metric, I would recommend examining players who raise their baseline around the green on Bermuda courses. Chipping technique can change out of Bermuda rough, and certain players are simply more comfortable on this agronomy. The best around-the-green players in this field on Bermuda golf courses are William McGirt, Mackenzie Hughes, Brendon Todd, Aaron Baddeley, Tano Goya, Jonathan Byrd, Ben Griffin, Scott Piercy, Brian Gay, and Peter Malnati. 

• Putting 
  • Putting always rises to prominence on courses that don’t do a great job of separate moderate from elite tee-to-green play. Brendon Todd, Brian Gay, and Lucas Herbert are all sub-standard ball-strikers and above-average putters. Players such as Todd and Gay are absolutely dead-on-arrival at courses like Torrey Pines and Muirfield Village because their below average ball-striking puts them behind the eight-ball in such a pronounced way. On the contrary, a player such as Rory McIlroy or Jon Rahm has so much less of an advantage on a course like Port Royal because Todd and Gay have no problems hitting greens here either and score is so much more dependent on putting.
  • Most tropical courses are on the grainier and slower side. Former champion Brendon Todd stated, “They’re a little bit slow, so you’re always kind of guessing whether its two balls or three balls, how hard to hit it.” Many coastal courses feature slow, grainy putting surfaces, as green speeds must be kept in check on courses that are this exposed to the wind. Port Royal’s Bermuda greens are a far cry from the firm and fast Bermuda courses that we see in the Southeastern United States. These greens will run at far more similar speeds to what we see every year at Kapalua. The best long-term putters in this field on slower, Bermuda greens have been Kelly Kraft, Austin Cook, Chesson Hadley, Ben Griffin, Troy Merritt, Brendon Todd, Aaron Baddeley, Vincent Whaley, Lucas Herbert, and Harry Hall. 

• Scoring Stats 
  • I’ve already discussed how wind completely defines the character of this course, but here are a few player quotes that stood out to me.
    • Taylor Pendrith: “It was two different days for sure. You know, yesterday was some of the worst weather I’ve ever played in and just almost like surviving out there. Didn’t really matter how you hit it, you just have to hit shots. Today was a completely different story.”
    • Rob Oppenheim: “A lot of hills, for sure. You know, the wind makes this course, completely changes the course. I got here Monday, played and it was a completely different wind, so this course is very dictated by the wind direction and how much wind.” 
  • Attempting to identify players who raise their baseline in windy conditions makes a ton of sense from a handicapping standpoint, but I would tread lightly when it comes to these types of stats. Most wind numbers are going to account for how windy it was that round. The problem is that wind changes on a minute to minute, hour to hour basis. It comes in different directions, and players will face it during distinctive points in their round on specific holes that will create variable strategic interactions. From a statistical standpoint, I don’t believe we are there yet in terms of accurately being able to identify who are “good” or “bad” wind players. They’re not enough times per year where players see extremely windy conditions for us to create a large-enough sample size without being forced to use stale statistics from over five years ago. The best I could do was look at the windiest rounds over the past three years, create a minimum baseline of 10 rounds played, and spotlight the best ball-strikers. The best ball-strikers in this field in windy conditions over the past three years (minimum 10 rounds) are Luke List, Adam Scott, Andrew Novak, Austin Smotherman, Kevin Yu, Ryan Armour, Lanto Griffin, Alex Smalley, Russell Knox, and Lucas Glover. Still, if you see folks touting, “he’s a good wind player,” that might be a bit of a red flag. I would still tread lightly. Our ability to measure wind play is still extremely limited.
  • While planning for extremely windy conditions is prudent, we know with certainty that players will see benign conditions for at least part of this event. In such conditions, Port Royal is a total pushover and players will need to generate as many birdie looks per round as possible to keep up. The players in this field who give themselves the most birdie or eagle putts inside 15 feet per round are Lucas Glover, Alex Smalley, Kevin Yu, Kevin Roy, Charley Hoffman, Ryan Palmer, Luke List, Davis Riley, Doug Ghim, and Adam Scott. 
  • While birdies or better gained is a statistic more dependent on putting, it’s important to identify those who convert those opportunities at the highest clip. The players in this field who make the most birdies per round are Adam Scott, Marty Dou, Scott Piercy, MJ Daffue, Harry Hall, Luke List, Doug Ghim, Peter Kuest, Lucas Glover, and Dylan Wu. 
  • Port Royal is the shortest course on the PGA Tour schedule, and while I would not classify it as a positional, club-down course such as Harbor Town or Waialae, I still see value in identifying players who have had the most success on short courses over the last three years. The best players in this field on sub-7,200-yard courses over the past three years (minimum 15 rounds) have been Thomas Detry, Brendon Todd, Ben Griffin, Taylor Pendrith, Lanto Griffin, Adam Scott, Brandon Wu, Alex Smalley, Mackenzie Hughes, and Mark Hubbard. 

• Comp Course/Course History 
  • There is certainly something to be said for having experience on this golf course and in these conditions. Matt Fitzpatrick had an interesting quote about the topographical challenges of Port Royal and how having an understanding of where to hit it is extremely useful. “The elevation is a lot around this golf course. Me and my caddie definitely noticed it this morning walking up and down the hills, it was tiring. I think it’s one that you’ve got to, certainly the second shots that are up the hill that are pretty blind, you’ve really got to know where you’re hitting it. You’ve got to pick good targets and be very disciplined, you can’t get too aggressive. I think in terms of the elevation, you’ve got to be in control of your ball flight and know your numbers and distances, where to hit and where not to.” 
  • Port Royal is one of the hillier courses on the schedule, and it does feature some blind shots. While I would not significantly knock a player who will be making their first appearance here, those who have played well at Port Royal before certainly deserve a bump. Port Royal does feature some of the least predictive history on Tour, which has a lot to do with the variability of this golf course and conditions. Brian Gay won in 2021 after finishing third the prior year. Lucas Herbert won in 2022 as a debutant. Seamus Power won after three middling finishes. There are certainly some players that seem to perform here year after year, namely Gay, who has not finished outside of the top 12 in all four appearances. Denny McCarthy also has three top-15s in four appearances. The best players in this field at Port Royal have been Brian Gay, Brendon Todd, Thomas Detry, Lucas Herbert, Justin Lower, Stewart Cink, Peter Malnati, Russell Knox, Ben Griffin, and Kevin Yu. 
  • Pebble Beach is another track that comes to mind in terms of a short, coastal course where off-the-tee play is of little relevance, and the emphasis falls squarely on the second shot, which is more often than not with a wedge. While Pebble tends to feature more consistent conditions than Port Royal, both courses’ greatest defense is the wind and are a walk in the park in the absence of high winds. The best players in this field at Pebble Beach (minimum four rounds) are Jimmy Walker, Cameron Champ, Kevin Yu, Brian Gay, Arjun Atwal, Brendon Todd, Ryan Armour, Troy Merritt, Matthias Schwab, and Taylor Pendrith. 
  • The other short, coastal course that deserves a shout is Waialae. Players can be more aggressive off the tee at Port Royal, and driving accuracy is more important at Waialae. Still, both courses feature slow, grainy, Bermuda greens, are exposed to occasional high winds, and place a large emphasis on wedge play. The best players in this field at Waialae (minimum four rounds) are Stewart Cink, Brian Stuard, Patton Kizzire, Ryan Palmer, Russell Knox, Ben Griffin, Nico Echavarria, Kyle Stanley, Nick Hardy, and Lanto Griffin. 

Model 

• Off the Tee (0%)
• Approach (36%)
  • Strokes Gained Approach (15%)
  • Proximity Inside 125 yards (13%)
  • Proximity 200 yards plus (8%)
• Around the Green (7%)
  • Strokes Gained Around the Green: Bermuda-grass
• Putting (14%)
  • Strokes Gained Putting: Slow Bermuda-grass Greens
• Scoring Stats (30%)
  • Strokes Gained Ball-striking: Windy Conditions (6%)
  • Birdies or Better Gained (8%)
  • Opportunities Gained (8%)
  • Strokes Gained Total: Short Courses (8%)
• Comp Courses/Course History (13%)
  • Port Royal (6%)
  • Pebble Beach (4%)
  • Waialae (3%)

Top 20 

1. Brendon Todd
2. Adam Scott
3. Alex Smalley
4. Lucas Glover
5. Mark Hubbard
6. Kevin Yu
7. Davis Riley
8. Chesson Hadley
9. Ben Griffin
10. Thomas Detry
11. Charley Hoffman
12. Kevin Roy
13. Peter Kuest
14. Ryan Palmer
15. Doug Ghim
16. Troy Merritt
17. Luke List
18. Ryan Armour
19. Russell Knox
20. Andrew Novak