2023 Course Breakdown: Sea Island (Seaside/Plantation)
The Basics
- Course: Sea Island (Seaside Course)
- Location: St. Simons Island, Georgia
- Designer: Harry Colt (1928); Tom Fazio re-design (1998)
- Length: Par 70; 7,005 yards
- Hazards: Water comes into play on 13 holes
- Fairways: Tifway Bermuda-grass with Platinum Paspalum measuring 42 yards wide on average
- Rough: Tifway Bermuda-grass (2 inches)
- Greens: 7,200 square foot TifEagle Bermuda-grass running 12.5 on the stimp
- Course: Sea Island (Plantation Course)
- Location: St. Simons Island, Georgia
- Designer: Walter Travis (1926); Rees Jones re-design (1998); Davis Love re-design (2019)
- Length: Par 72; 7,060 yards
- Hazards: Water comes into play on 10 holes
- Fairways: Platinum Paspalum
- Rough: TifTurf Bermuda-grass
- Greens: 6,100 square foot TifEagle
The RSM Classic debuted on the PGA Tour in October of 2010 at Sea Island Golf Club in St. Simons Island, Georgia. Since 2015, the event has been played at both the Seaside and Plantation courses, featuring a full field of 156 players. The RSM Classic always attracts a solid field, as Sea Island is an extremely common home base for professional golfers. Jonathan Byrd, Harris English, Brian Harman, Zach Johnson, Patton Kizzire, Matt Kuchar, Keith Mitchell, Andrew Novak, J.T. Poston, Greyson Sigg, Michael Thompson, and tournament host Davis Love III, among others, all cite Sea Island as their permanent residence. Even players such as Chris Kirk, Kevin Kisner, Seamus Power, and Nick Watney spend a great deal of their offseason practicing at the Sea Island performance center.
It’s not a coincidence that PGA Tour pros love Sea Island. It’s an insular, modern, and well-manicured facility that features three courses: the Plantation, Seaside, and Retreat. The RSM Classic is held only at the Seaside and Plantation courses, as players will each play a round at the Seaside and Plantation on Thursday and Friday. Those who make the cut will play their final 36 holes at the Seaside Course. With 75% of the tournament, including the final two days, being held at the Seaside Course, I will focus the majority of my attention on the Seaside Course. Also, we have far more information on the Seaside course, as it employs shot-tracker data. The Plantation is unfortunately devoid of such valuable data. Luckily, there is not a discernible difference between the two courses. A true psycho could create a different model for each course and then utilize a composite, weighing the Seaside model at 75% and the Plantation at 25%. Even I am not that crazy, and while there are some subtle differences between the Seaside and Plantation, my Plantation model would not look all that different. The main distinction between the two is that Plantation course generally plays easier because it features two extra par fives. Still, it really comes down to the wind, as we have seen instances where the Plantation course actually plays more challenging in gusting winds.
Turning our full attention to the Seaside course, the Harry Colt design features large greens and extremely generous fairways. Playing under 7,000 yards, it’s the third-shortest course that players will face all year, with the second-shortest set of par fours on the PGA Tour. The course’s greatest defense is the wind, but winning scores across the past five years have ventured past 19 under par. Each of the last five years it has ranked as one of the easier courses on the PGA Tour, but not within the top 10 easiest. The Seaside does feature four fairly stout par threes that measure between 179 and 223 yards. The third hole, which measures 204 yards, plays as the third-most difficult hole on the course. The fifth hole, which measures 223 yards, ranks as the fifth-most difficult hole on the course. Ten of the 12 par fours measure between 405 and 455 yards, which explains the fact that nearly 60% of all approach shots at the Seaside course come from between 125 and 175 yards. The closing hole, which measures 470 yards, is the only par four on the property that measures over 455 yards. The pair of par fives play as the two easiest holes on the course, with the 15th playing more like a par four and a half, yielding a scoring average of 4.42 and a birdie rate of 51%. Players who fail to make birdie on this hole will be losing ground to the field.
Ultimately, the Seaside course (the Plantation is just as, if not easier) is one of the more benign tests that players will face all year. Just like last week in Bermuda, be sure to monitor the weather report as we get closer to Thursday. This event (historically at least) is not as wind-affected as the Butterfield Bermuda, but both courses are still heavily exposed and weather generally plays at least some factor over the course of the event. Let’s dive into the stats.
Stats
- Off the Tee
- Last year, the Seaside course ranked 15th out of 43 courses in strokes gained off-the-tee difficulty, and each of the last five years, it has ranked right around average to slightly harder than average in this category. I was surprised to find that despite featuring extremely generous fairways, off the tee has provided the most pushback in terms of strokes gained difficulty compared to all other four major categories.
- Still, last year, Callum Tarren and Brian Harman both gained under a stroke off the tee. Talor Gooch won the event the prior year losing strokes off the tee, and four of the top 10 players on the leaderboard all lost strokes off the tee. In 2021, Kyle Stanley, Camilo Villegas, and Zach Johnson all finished in the top six while losing strokes off the tee.
- Driving accuracy at Seaside is 65.9% compared to the Tour average of 58.4%, and the course features the sixth-widest fairways on the PGA Tour. It featured the fourth-highest driving accuracy percentage last year on Tour.
- However, average driving distance at Seaside is only 280.6 yards, compared to the Tour average of 291 yards. Each of the last five years, Seaside has ranked inside the top 10 in lowest driving distance on the PGA Tour. On the contrary, each of the last five years, Seaside has ranked as the easiest fairways to hit on the PGA Tour. It ranked dead last in standard deviation in driving distance on par fours and par fives. What this tells me is that there is not a huge necessity to pull driver on this course.
- Last year, the Seaside course ranked 18th out of 38 courses in missed fairway penalty, and in both 2020 and 2019 it ranked fifth out of 35 courses in missed fairway penalty, which also provides an explanation to why players club down off the tee, regardless of the expansive landing areas.
- Last year, Seaside also ranked 41st out of 43 courses in rough penalty, and each of the last five years, it has ranked inside the top 10 in lowest penalty for landing in the rough. The short Bermuda rough at Seaside is not remotely an issue, it’s just the big misses, however, that really get penalized.
- On the contrary, the Seaside course ranked 14th out of 43 courses in non-rough penalty, but it also ranked first in fraction of missed fairways that resulted in a penalty stroke, and it has ranked in the top two of that category every single one of the last 10 years. Essentially, the Seaside features extremely magnanimous fairways, and if players who just happen to miss in the rough should not be concerned either. Yet there is still enough water and marshland in play off the tee. The only way players can find themselves in trouble off the tee at Seaside is via the big miss that will result in a penalty stroke. For this reason, I am not overly concerned with identifying the most accurate drivers of the ball in this field. These fairways are so wide that players really do not gain much of an advantage for possessing elite accuracy. With that being said, extremely wayward driving is a total recipe for disaster.
- Last year, six of the top 15 players on the leaderboard lost to the field in driving distance, seven of the top 15 lost in driving accuracy percentage, but only two of the top 15 lost in good drive percentage. Adam Svensson (1st), Sahith Theegala (2nd), and Alex Smalley (5th) all finished in the top five in good drive percentage. The prior year, seven of the top 14 players on last year’s leaderboard ranked below average in driving accuracy, while all ranking above average in good drive percentage. 2021 told a similar story, as seven of the top 15 players on the leaderboard ranked below average in driving accuracy, yet 12 of the top 15 ranked above average in good drive percentage.
- Good drive percentage can help me identify the players who consistently put themselves in position off the tee to hit the green in regulation, which is really all that is required at Sea Island. The best players in this field in good drive percentage are Matthew NeSmith, Russell Henley, Si Woo Kim, Doug Ghim, Denny McCarthy, Brice Garnett, Doc Rodman, J.J. Spaun, Aaron Rai, and Corey Conners.
- With such massively wide fairways, one would expect a massive edge to those with elite distance off the tee, but that has not necessarily come to fruition at the Seaside course. Distance helps on every course, but I only view it as a worthy statistic for modeling purposes if I can identify a sizable correlation between driving distance and success. That is far from the case at Seaside. With a large plurality of short- to medium-length par fours, and two par fives that are generally reachable by all players, Sea Island certainly falls into the category of courses where shorter hitters are not disadvantaged. The top 10 players in true strokes gained at Seaside (minimum four rounds) are: Adam Svensson, John Senden, K.H. Lee, Sahith Theegala, Jim Furyk, Webb Simpson, Taylor Pendrith, Ben Taylor, Denny McCarthy, and Talor Gooch. Of that group, only Theegala and Pendrith are historically longer-than-average drivers of the ball. One would think that such generous fairways allow bombers to wail away with driver, but there’s enough trouble in the form of hazards to deter most from relying too heavily on the big stick.
- Ultimately, what players do off the tee at Sea Island is of little relevance so long as they can avoid the big miss. The Colt design is not of the TPC Summerlin or Pebble Beach ilk where off the tee is completely de-valued. Yet the Seaside course is neither a true “Position A” golf course such as Royal Liverpool or TPC Potomac, where players are completely dead on arrival if they are unable to keep the ball in play. Not to mention the fact that Seaside ranks first in fraction of missed fairways that result in a penalty stroke! Overall, despite the wide fairways, I still have a fairly standard weight on good drive percentage, and I am primarily concerned with identifying those who can keep the ball in play and are devoid of the big miss.
- Approach
- Last year, the Seaside course ranked 29th out of 43 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty, and each of the last five years, it has ranked inside the top 12 in easiest strokes gained approach difficulty.
- Greens in regulation percentage at Seaside is a whopping 73.7% compared to the Tour average of 64.1%. Last year, Seaside featured the third-easiest greens to hit on the PGA Tour, and each of the last five years, it has ranked inside the top five easiest greens to hit on PGA Tour.
- The three proximity buckets that rank above average at Seaside are 125-150 yards, 150-175 yards, and 175-200 yards. The Colt design is definitively a short- to middle-iron course. 60% of all approach shots fall between 125 and 200 yards, which is unsurprising given the length of short to medium-length par fours. The best long-term short- to middle-iron players in this field are Cameron Young, Ryan Moore, Si Woo Kim, Russell Knox, Eric Cole, Greyson Sigg, Carl Yuan, Corey Conners, Sam Ryder, and Akshay Bhatia.
- The degree of difficulty of the approach shots at Sea Island is low, so I do not believe that one needs to be an elite iron player to experience success at Seaside, but you’d better make up for it with the flat-stick. When we really boil it down, Seaside is a wedges and putting course.
- Around the Green
- Last year, the Seaside course ranked 29th out of 43 courses in strokes gained around-the-green difficulty, and each of the last five years, it has ranked inside the top 10 in easiest in strokes gained around-the-green difficulty.
- Last year, the Seaside course also ranked 21st out of 43 courses in strokes gained around-the-green difficulty from the fairway, and each of the last five years, it has ranked easier than Tour average in strokes gained around-the-green difficulty in this category.
- The green-side rough is even less of a problem. Last year, the Seaside course ranked 31st out of 43 courses in strokes gained around-the-green difficulty from the rough, and each of the last five years, it has ranked inside the top eight in easiest around-the-green difficulty from the rough.
- Same story with the bunkers. Last year, the Seaside course ranked 41st out of 43 courses in strokes gained around-the-green difficulty from the bunkers. Each of the last five years, it has ranked inside the top eight in easiest around-the-green difficulty from the bunkers.
- Last year, just one player in the top 10 gained over two strokes around the green, and the prior year, not a single player in the top 15 gained over two strokes around the green. Short game is simply not a relevant part of the equation this week.
- The Seaside course is one of the easiest around-the-green courses on the PGA Tour, and with such a high greens-in-regulation percentage, players will rarely need to rely on their short game at all this week. I would not endorse spending any time looking at around the green metrics here.
- Putting
- Unless the wind really gets going, the Seaside course does not do the best job of separating elite from moderate tee to green play. On countless occasions, we’ve seen average ball-strikers get by on the strength of their flat-stick. Of the last 10 winners, Talor Gooch is the only player I would argue is a high caliber ball-striker.
- Last year, Seaside ranked 40th out of 43 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty, as within the past five years, it has ranked as one of the easiest strokes gained putting courses on the PGA Tour.
- Last year, Seaside also ranked 24th out of 43 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty inside five feet, and each of the last five years, it has ranked right around average to below average in strokes gained putting difficulty inside five feet.
- Last year, Seaside ranked 38th out of 43 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty from five to 15 feet. Outside of a strange anomaly year in 2022, each of the last five years, Seaside has ranked inside the top 12 easiest putting courses from five to 15 feet.
- Lag putting is not much of a challenge at Seaside either. Last year, the Colt design ranked 39th out of 43 courses in putting difficulty greater than 15 feet. With 2022 again being the anomaly year, each of the last five years, Seaside has ranked average to easier than Tour average in putting difficulty greater than 15 feet. In 2019, it ranked as the second-easiest lag putting course on Tour, and in 2018, it ranked as the third-easiest lag putting course on Tour.
- Still, with such a high greens-in-regulation percentage, putting is a crucial part of the equation this week. The degree of difficulty of putting at this course is low, but players will still need to take advantage of the large plurality of birdie looks that are generated per round. The best long-term Bermuda-grass putters in this field are Martin Trainer, Taylor Montgomery, Maverick McNealy, Brian Gay, Alex Noren, Matt Kuchar, Ben Taylor, Ben Griffin, Thomas Detry, and Justin Suh.
- Scoring Stats
- Generating scoring opportunities at the Seaside course is an absolute must. On wedge-heavy courses, I always look to identify the players that give themselves the most birdie looks per round inside 15 feet. The best players in this field in opportunities gained are Eric Cole, Alex Smalley, Ludvig Aberg, Chris Kirk, Kevin Yu, Kevin Roy, Russell Henley, Charley Hoffman, Ryan Palmer, and Luke List.
- Conversely, converting those opportunities at an elite rate is equally important, as players should be prepared to get to 17- to 22-under this week. The best players in this field in birdies or better gained are Eric Cole, Ludvig Aberg, Nicolai Hojgaard, Justin Suh, Luke List, Taylor Montgomery, Marty Dou, Corey Conners, Stephan Jaeger, and Scott Piercy.
- Finally, Seaside is a course that caters to all shapes and sizes. At Torrey Pines, Bay Hill, and many major championship venues, many players are massively disadvantaged due to a lack of distance off the tee and an emphasis on elite long iron execution. Seaside, on the other hand, is the type of course where players such as Webb Simpson, Matt Kuchar, and Kevin Kisner are licking their chops. I wanted to look closely this week at the players who have performed best on short courses, as Seaside presents a roadmap to success for even the shortest of players. The best players in this field over the last two years on sub-7,200-yard courses are Russell Henley, Brian Harman, Eric Cole, J.T. Poston, Corey Conners, Keith Mitchell, Taylor Montgomery, Thomas Detry, Denny McCarthy, and Maverick McNealy.
- Comp Courses/Course History
- In terms of the predictive nature of its course history, both Seaside and Plantation rank on the lower end. The green complexes are relatively straightforward, and both courses are all out in front of you. Talor Gooch had missed three of his last four cuts here before winning, and Adam Svensson missed all three of his cuts before his victory last year. My assumption is that folks are going to overrate the Sea Island angle. Yes, those who live at Sea Island and play both courses regularly should (in theory) possess a huge advantage. Yet it hasn’t always played out that way. Players such as Harris English, Matt Kuchar, and Keith Mitchell have been fairly underwhelming here. A course under tournament conditions is far different than the course that residents see every day, and I would not recommend using “he lives at Sea Island” as a sole reason to include a player in your pool. The best players in this field at Sea Island have been Webb Simpson, Kevin Kisner, Corey Conners, Zach Johnson, Russell Henley, Mackenzie Hughes, Brian Harman, Matthew NeSmith, Billy Horschel, and Will Gordon.
- There are tons of courses on the PGA Tour schedule that fall into the short, positional, Bermuda bucket. I do feel like I have many of them covered in the “Strokes Gained Total: Courses under 7,200 yards” bucket, but here are a few tracks that still deserve a specific shoutout.
- Port Royal (host of the Bermuda Championship) places less of an emphasis on off the tee at Sea Island, but it is still a coastal, wedges, and Bermuda putting course where wind is the greatest defense. The best players in this field at Port Royal are Brian Gay, Brendon Todd, Thomas Detry, Denny McCarthy, Justin Lower, Stewart Cink, Scott Stallings, Kevin Yu, Peter Malnati, and Ben Griffin.
- Pebble Beach (host of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am) also deserves consideration as a comp, solely because it’s another short, coastal course with extremely generous fairways. At both Sea Island and Pebble Beach, the emphasis falls squarely on the second shot, which is more often than not with a wedge. There’s more trouble off the tee at Sea Island, but neither course requires elite driving accuracy. The best players in this field at Pebble Beach are Maverick McNealy, Nate Lashley, Kevin Streelman, Matthew NeSmith, Jimmy Walker, Scott Stallings, Kevin Yu, Cameron Champ, Keith Mitchell, and Brian Gay.
- Waialae is a little more accuracy focused than what is required at Sea Island, but it still falls in the bucket of a short, coastal, Bermuda wedges course where wind often dictates how difficult it plays. Waialae is also a golden age design and a product of classical architecture, similar to the Seaside course. The best players in this field at Waialae are Matt Kuchar, Corey Conners, Kevin Kisner, Hayden Buckley, Webb Simpson, Stewart Cink, Si Woo Kim, Keith Mitchell, Russell Henley, and Chris Kirk.
- Sea Island’s extremely wide fairways explain why I’m a bit more tepid on courses such as TPC Sawgrass, TPC Potomac, Harbour Town, Sedgefield, El Camaleon, and TPC River Highlands. All five of those courses are short and positional in nature with a large plurality of short iron approaches, but I would define them all as “Position A” courses. On “Position A” courses, the first shot is of great importance. Sea Island is far more of a second-shot golf course due to the leniency the players are granted off the tee. They can still find themselves in trouble at the Colt design, but there is a far greater margin for error at the aforementioned courses, which all feature narrower fairways, thicker rough, and more protruding trees. Unlike those tracks, Sea Island does not reward players for possessing elite driving accuracy. Still, we’ve seen a fair amount of leaderboard crossover at all of these courses, as they all still highlight wedge play and allow players of all shapes and sizes to compete.
Model
- Off the Tee (8%)
- Good Drive Percentage (8%)
- Approach (33%)
- Strokes Gained Approach (15%)
- Long-term Proximity 125-150 yards (6%)
- Long-term Proximity 150-175 yards (7%)
- Long-term Proximity 175-200 yards (5%)
- Around the Green (0%)
- Putting (13%)
- Strokes Gained Putting: Bermuda-grass (13%)
- Scoring Stats (24%)
- Opportunities Gained (8%)
- Birdies or Better Gained (8%)
- Strokes Gained Total: Short Courses (10%)
- Comp Courses/Course History (20%)
- Sea Island (Seaside) (7%)
- Sea Island (Plantation) (4%)
- Pebble Beach (4%)
- Port Royal (3%)
- Waialae (3%)
Top 20
- Eric Cole
- Russell Henley
- Corey Conners
- Brendon Todd
- Chesson Hadley
- J.T. Poston
- Mark Hubbard
- Alex Smalley
- Brian Harman
- Denny McCarthy
- Sam Ryder
- Chris Kirk
- J.J. Spaun
- Adam Svensson
- Si Woo Kim
- Greyson Sigg
- Aaron Rai
- Stephan Jaeger
- Ben Martin
- Cameron Young
