By Andy Lack

2023 Genesis Scottish Open Course Breakdown: Renaissance Club

The Basics 

• Course: The Renaissance Club
• Location: North Berwick, Scotland
• Designer: Tom Doak (2008)
• Length: Par 70; 7,293 yards
• Hazards: Water comes into play on one hole
• Fairways: Fescue
• Rough: Fescue
• Greens: Fescue

The Genesis Scottish Open is currently the only co-sanctioned event between the PGA and DP World Tour. It is one of the five tournaments that are part of the Rolex Series, so it also doubles as one of the DP World Tour’s five premier events. For the second time ever, it will also provide FedEx Cup points as well. The event has been played on a number of different courses, but in 2019, it moved to the Renaissance Club. Here have been our champions since moving to the Tom Doak modern links design.

• 2022: Xander Schauffele (-7) over Kurt Kitayama (-6)
• 2021: Min Woo Lee (-18) over Matt Fitzpatrick, Thomas Detry (-18) (Playoff)
• 2020: Aaron Rai (-11) over Tommy Fleetwood (-11) (Playoff)
• 2019: Bernd Wiesberger (-22) over Lucas Herbert (-22) (Playoff)

While in 2019 and 2021 we did not experience much wind, last year, Xander Schauffele triumphed at just seven-under par in extremely blustery conditions. Due to the variability of the conditions, modeling out this course is no easy task. As we saw last year, the Renaissance Club can play as one of the most difficult tests on Tour in high winds. Yet in benign conditions, this event has played as one of the easier on Tour, with winning scores of -22 and -18 in 2019 and 2021. We do not possess as much data from the calmer years, as the event was not co-sanctioned at the time. Early wind reports (I’ll go over this is in far more detail in my article on Wednesday) suggest that 2023 will play more similar to what we saw last year than what we saw in 2019 and 2021. For this reason, I am going to handicap and use data based on the assumption that last year is a more relevant predictor of what we can expect this year, while still giving room in my model for the possibility that we get more benign conditions. Let’s dive into some of the basics of the golf course.

The Renaissance Club was designed in 2008 by Tom Doak. While it has a links feel to it, Renaissance is a very modern course, paling in comparison to a nearby North Berwick or Muirfield. I still am not one to complain, as Doak is my favorite modern designer and the only other work we see of his on the schedule is Memorial Park for the Houston Open during the fall swing. This course is not one of Doak’s finest creations. It feels a bit manufactured, as the site was an old pine forest. There isn’t really anything natural or authentic about the Renaissance Club, contrary to what emanates from some of the other iconic links designs in the area. Yet still, the golf course plays like a links course, and like all true links courses, its primary defense is the elements. Deep pot bunkers, gorse, and fescue line the fairways, but under calm conditions, the world’s best have shown that they take it low here.

The Renaissance Club is not a short course, measuring nearly 7,300 yards on the scorecard, but it typically gets set up differently from day to day, so you should not get overly wrapped up in specific yardages. The course uniquely features five par threes and three par fives. Two of the par threes are quite short (147 and 161 yards), and the other three all measure above 200 yards. Depending on wind, at least three of the four par fives should be reachable. None of the par fives are short, but none of them are true three-shot holes either unless played straight into the wind. All three measure between 560 and 600 yards. Seven of the par fours measure above 445 yards, which is a fairly large number. The fifth hole is a drivable par four, and the fourth and 13th are both shorter par fours. The Renaissance Club featured the fifth-longest set of par fours and par fives last year, but it also featured the second-shortest set of par threes. Under blustery conditions, it ranked as the fourth-most difficult course on Tour in 2023, playing far more challenging than the last two Open Championships. It featured the sixth-hardest set of par threes, the fifth-hardest set of par fours, and the eighth-hardest set of par fives. Schauffele tamed the course with an extremely well-balanced attack, gaining over two strokes to the field in all four major categories, and each of the top five players on the leaderboard gained strokes in all four major categories. This signifies that the Renaissance Club doesn’t necessarily accentuate or penalize one specific skill-set, which is not uncommon for true links courses. Players will need a little bit of everything to succeed in such windy conditions. Let’s dive into the stats.

Stats 

• Off the Tee 
  • Last year, 11.4% of strokes gained came off the tee, which is well below the Tour average of 15.4%.
  • Driving distance at the Renaissance Club was 294.9 yards, which is higher than the Tour average of 283 yards by a healthy margin. Yet driving accuracy at the Renaissance Club was just 48.9%, which is well below the Tour average by over 11%. This simply speaks to how difficult it is to find the fairway in the wind. I would expect driving accuracy to be far higher in calm conditions. The fairways at the Doak design are not overly narrow either, measuring 31.4 yards on average. They were the fourth-hardest fairways to hit on Tour last year, despite measuring middle of the road in width.
  • Last year, the Renaissance Club ranked ninth out of 38 courses in strokes gained off the tee difficulty, but the penalty for missing the fairway was not severe at all. The Renaissance Club ranked 37th out of 38 courses last year in missed fairway penalty. Less than 50% of players were hitting the fairway last year, and there was barely any correlation of success for those who found the short grass at a more consistent rate. 
  • The rough wasn’t much of a struggle for pros last year, as the Renaissance Club ranked 33rd out of 37 courses last year in rough penalty. It did rank seventh out of 37 courses in non-rough penalty, proving that giant misses were still penalized, but playing from the rough was insignificant. Avoiding the deep fescue is paramount, but there is really no trouble at the Renaissance Club in the form of hazards, as it ranked 36th out of 38 courses last year in fraction of drives that resulted in a penalty stroke.
  • I unequivocally believe that this is a golf course where distance is incredibly advantageous. Shorter players can still absolutely succeed here (Tom Kim, Tommy Fleetwood, Jamie Donaldson, Aaron Rai), but Xander Schauffele, Kurt Kitayama, Rasmus Hojgaard, Alex Smalley, Thomas Detry, and Dean Burmester all finished top-10 last year while ranking well above average in driving distance. The longest drivers of the ball in this field are Rory McIlroy, Byeong-Hun An, Vincent Norrman, Scottie Scheffler, Keith Mitchell, Min Woo Lee, Adam Scott, Joseph Bramlett, Trey Mullinax, and Wyndham Clark. 
  • Conversely, driving accuracy is of little relevance on this course, as eight of the top 15 players on the leaderboard, including Xander, Kitayama, and Cantlay, lost to the field in driving accuracy percentage. Especially in high winds, even the most accurate drivers will lose their advantage on this golf course.

• Approach 
  • Last year, 33.9% of strokes gained at the Renaissance Club came on approach, which is slightly below the Tour average of 34.7%.
  • Last year, the Renaissance Club ranked fourth out of 38 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty. This, as expected, was mostly due to the wind.
  • Last year, the proximity buckets at the Renaissance Club that ranked above average were 175 to 200 yards, and 200 yards plus. 20.1% of approach shots last year came from 175-200 yards, which is above the Tour average of 17.5%. 27.6% of approach shots came from 200 yards plus, which is above the Tour average of 22.9%. Even in lower winds, this course absolutely plays longer than its yardage, and mid- to long-iron play is the specific type of approach play that we want to focus on. The best long-term players from 175 yards-plus in this field are Gary Woodland, Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Justin Rose, Scottie Scheffler, Austin Smotherman, Matthew NeSmith, Austin Eckroat, MJ Daffue, and Zecheng Dou. 
  • With almost 50% of approach shots coming from over 175 yards, it should not come as a surprise that greens in regulation percentage last year was only 59.3%, well below the Tour average of 66%. The Renaissance Club featured the seventh-most difficult greens to hit on the PGA Tour last year, and ranked fourth out of 38 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty inside 150 yards and third out of 38 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty from greater than 150 yards.

• Around the Green 
  • Last year, 15.4% of strokes gained at the Renaissance Club came around the green, which is a touch above the Tour average of 14.5%.
  • Last year, the Renaissance Club ranked 31st out of 38 courses in strokes gained around-the-green difficulty, but it did prove to be important at the top, as each of the top five players on the leaderboard possessed strong short games. Still, in terms of degree of difficulty, chipping at the Renaissance Club is easier than the other three strokes gained categories.
  • Last year, the Renaissance Club ranked 28th out of 38 courses in strokes gained around-the-green difficulty from the fairway, 32nd out of 38 courses in around-the-green difficulty from the rough, and fifth out of 38 courses in around-the-green difficulty from the bunkers. Like all links courses, the Renaissance Club does feature deep and difficult pot bunkers that explain why up-and-down percentage from the sand has been so low. Looking at bunker play is certainly valuable, but it’s important to keep in mind that the sand in Scotland is a lot different from the sand that players are used to seeing at American PGA Tour courses. It’s a lot darker and more gravelly in Scotland. Good bunker players can adapt, and this type of sand doesn’t necessarily require that much of a different technique. Yet, I still thought it was worth mentioning so you don’t equate the two evenly. Still, the best bunker players in this field over the past year have been Justin Rose, S.H. Kim, Andrew Putnam, Ben Griffin, Brian Harman, Dylan Wu, Padraig Harrington, Tommy Fleetwood, Viktor Hovland, and Robby Shelton. 
  • While the general green-side surrounds at the Renaissance Club are not overly challenging, short game still proved to be even more important than off the tee last year due to the sheer volume of players who were forced to rely on their short game. The players in the best short game form over the past two months have been Scottie Scheffler, Rickie Fowler, Brendon Todd, Matthias Schwab, Aaron Baddeley, Padraig Harrington, Byeong-Hun An, Eric Cole, Ben Griffin, and Harry Hall. 

• Putting 
  • Last year, 39.3% of strokes gained at the Renaissance Club came putting, which is well above the Tour average of 35.5%.
  • The Renaissance Club ranked fifth out of 38 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty, and despite the fact that there was a low greens-in-regulation percentage, nearly 40% of strokes gained came with the flat-stick. That number is well above Tour average and is typically what we see at putting contests. Every single player in the top 10 last year had a well-above-average putting week.
  • Last year, the Renaissance Club was the number one hardest course on the PGA Tour in putting difficulty inside five feet, which was largely due to the wind. It also ranked 12th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty from five to 15 feet, and 10th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty from greater than 15 feet. Especially if we get windy conditions, I really want to target players that are rock solid inside 10 feet. The best players inside 10 feet this year have been Andrew Putnam, Sam Ryder, Tommy Fleetwood, Max Homa, Wyndham Clark, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sam Burns, Min Woo Lee, Tyrrell Hatton, and Patrick Cantlay. 
  • Any time we have a golf course with larger greens and green-side surrounds that are also conducive to putting from off the green, lag putting is an important skill to have in your tool bag. The best approach putters in this field this year have been Eric Cole, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Nico Echavarria, Aaron Baddeley, Sam Burns, Tyrrell Hatton, Scottie Scheffler, Andrew Putnam, Sam Ryder, and Robby Shelton. 
  • While we have very limited data on putting performance on Fescue greens, we can definitely say that these greens (like most in Scotland) are certainly on the slower side. I really want to identify players that can spike with their putter and specifically raise their baseline on slower surfaces. The best putters over the last two years on slower greens have been Billy Horschel, Taylor Montgomery, Tommy Fleetwood, Eric Cole, Beau Hossler, Brendon Todd, Justin Lower, Ben Taylor, Harry Hall, and Lucas Herbert. 

• Scoring Stats 
  • Wind stats on the PGA Tour are wonky at best. I know there is probably a strong temptation to go there this week, as this event featured more wind last year than any other event on the schedule. There are still simply too many variables involved to go overly crazy here. Wind stats can be a satisfactory reference point when placed in the context of distinctive examples of impressive performances in tournaments that objectively featured a ton of wind. Looking at how players have performed in certain Open Championships could be a worthy indicator as well, but I would not spend too much time conflating a breezy round of golf in California to a steady wind in Scotland. Still, the players who have performed the best over the past three years in windy conditions are Sungjae Im, Adam Scott, Justin Thomas, Max Homa, Seamus Power, Corey Conners, Scottie Scheffler, Sam Burns, Lucas Herbert, and Shane Lowry. 
  • Due to the potential for an extremely low greens-in-regulation percentage and potentially very challenging conditions, I want to identify the players that do the best job of scrambling on more difficult golf courses. The best players at grinding out pars in difficult scoring conditions over the past three years have been Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, Taylor Montgomery, Brendon Todd, Byeong-Hun An, Sam Burns, Max Homa, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, and J.T. Poston. 
  • Finally, as a bit of a hedge, I want to also look separately at players who raise their baseline in easier scoring conditions, and compare that to players who play well in the wind. What becomes more important will be more clear as we get a more accurate weather report later in the week, but we want to identify players that they can both shoot 20-under par AND play well in tough, windy conditions. It could change every day too! Last year, all four days all played differently in terms of scoring. The players in this field that rank top-20 in BOTH easy scoring conditions and windy conditions are Sungjae Im, Max Homa, Justin Thomas, Seamus Power, Corey Conners, Scottie Scheffler, Sam Burns, Patrick Cantlay, and Andrew Putnam. These players feel like some of the safest bets to perform no matter what the weather holds.

• Comp Courses/Course History 
  • Does having experience on this course and links courses in general matter this week? Sure, but Aaron Rai missed the cut in his only appearance here prior to winning. Min Woo Lee finished 30th in his only appearance prior to winning, and Xander had a 10th-place finish in his lone start here prior to winning. Kurt Kitayama only had a 43rd here prior to his second-place finish, and Tom Kim finished third last year in his debut. I don’t find the Renaissance Club to be an incredibly nuanced course. There is some undulation to the greens, and being able to accurately judge the wind is not an easy task, but given the amount of talent in this field, I would not be shocked if a player making their debut contended. Still, the players in this field who have performed the best at the Renaissance Club are Xander Schauffele, Kurt Kitayama, Tom Kim, Patrick Cantlay, Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, Brandon Wu, Rasmus Hojgaard, Alex Smalley, and Tyrrell Hatton. 
  • Let’s also consider motivation on the week before a major. Our three winners this year before the majors have been Corey Conners at short odds at the Valero Texas Open, Jason Day at short odds at the Byron Nelson, and Nick Taylor at middling odds at the Canadian Open. It is worth noting that this field is a hell of a lot stronger than all three of the first three major tune-ups. Corey Conners and Jason Day were the class of their respective fields at the Valero and Byron Nelson, but nowhere near the favorites in the following majors. In 2022, in the three tournaments the week before a major, we’ve had elite players either win or contend. Rory McIlroy won the Canadian Open last year at 8/1 prior to the U.S. Open. Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, and Xander Schauffele all contended the week before the PGA Championship. In fact, Xander could have easily mailed it in and take off for Southern Hills early, but he made eight birdies in his last 11 holes just to stay the weekend. Ultimately, I believe the idea that great players treat the week before a major as simply a tune-up is a bit of a fallacy. We’ve had a fairly star-studded leaderboard at this event the last two years as well, despite it being the week prior to the Open Championship.
  • Comp course history is incredibly tricky here, as we simply do not see any true links courses on the PGA Tour. In terms of required skill-set, the closest Tour course that we have any data on to the Renaissance Club would be Memorial Park, host of the Houston Open. Both the Renaissance Club and Memorial Park were designed by Tom Doak, feature similar green complexes, play rather firm and fast, and while the wind is certainly more of a factor at Renaissance, don’t underestimate Texas! The best players in this field at Memorial Park have been Sam Burns, Scottie Scheffler, Tyson Alexander, Alex Smalley, Ben Taylor, Mackenzie Hughes, Justin Rose, Aaron Rai, Trey Mullinax, and Viktor Hovland. 
  • I understand the temptation to look at other Open Championship venues, but the Renaissance Club is really a faux-links, and all of the Open venues tend to play differently every year based on the wind anyway. I don’t want to get caught up looking at difficult, windy Open championships, only for us to see benign conditions this week. On the contrary, I don’t want to use recent easy Opens at St. George’s or St. Andrew’s as reference points when we could be in store for absolute carnage this week. With that being said, experience across the pond on “links-style” courses never hurts. Just remember that Tom Kim was able to finish third here without ever playing a links course in his life.

Model 

• Off the Tee (10%)
  • Driving Distance (10%)
• Approach (28%)
  • Recent Strokes Gained Approach (16%)
  • Long-term Proximity 175-200 yards (5%)
  • Long-term Proximity 200 yards plus (7%)
• Around the Green (12%)
  • Sand Saves (6%)
  • Recent Strokes Gained Around the Green (6%)
• Putting (22%)
  • Strokes Gained Putting: Slow Greens (8%)
  • Long-term Putting Inside 10 Feet (9%)
  • Approach Putting (5%)
• Scoring Stats (18%)
  • Strokes Gained Total: Windy Conditions (8%)
  • Strokes Gained Total: Easy Scoring Conditions (5%)
  • Scrambling: Difficult Scoring Conditions (5%)
• Comp Courses/Course History (10%)
  • Renaissance Club (5%)
  • Memorial Park (5%)

Top 20 

1. Tommy Fleetwood
2. Rory McIlroy
3. Wyndham Clark
4. Patrick Cantlay
5. Scottie Scheffler
6. Justin Rose
7. Eric Cole
8. Max Homa
9. Tyrrell Hatton
10. Xander Schauffele
11. Matt Fitzpatrick
12. Rickie Fowler
13. Viktor Hovland
14. Andrew Putnam
15. Jordan Spieth
16. Sam Burns
17. Shane Lowry
18. Corey Conners
19. Sungjae Im
20. Justin Thomas