By Andy Lack

2023 John Deere Classic: TPC Deere Run

The Basics 

• Course: TPC Deere Run
• Location: Silvis, Illinois
• Designer: D.A. Weibring (1999) with a PGA Tour renovation in 2006
• Length: Par 71; 7,268 yards
• Hazards: Water comes into play on three holes
• Fairways: Southshore Bent-grass measuring 41 yards wide on average
• Rough: Kentucky Blue-grass with Fine Fescue 4 inches
• Greens: 5,500 square feet featuring L-93 Bent-grass, running 11.5 on the stimp

The John Deere Classic has been a staple on the PGA Tour since 1971. Formerly known as the “Quad Cities Open,” it was first a satellite event before becoming an official Tour event in 1972. John Deere took over as the title sponsor in 1999, and the tournament has been hosted at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois since then as well. The event has some nice history to it, as the 2013 edition saw Jordan Spieth, two weeks shy of his 20th birthday, become the first teenager to win on the PGA Tour since 1931. Since the introduction of the Open Qualifying Series, the John Deere is the final chance for a player not already exempt to earn entry into the Open Championship if he finishes in the top five.

Saying that I could copy and paste my preview from last week’s Detroit Golf Club into this article feels overly cynical, but the PGA Tour is once again headed to a very run of the mill, Bent-grass birdie-fest. TPC Deere Run features extremely wide fairways and receptive, medium-sized Bent-grass greens. We’ve seen bombers such as Jhonattan Vegas, Patrick Rodgers, and Dylan Frittelli find just as much success here as shorter fairway finders such as Zach Johnson, Wesley Bryan, Kevin Na, and last year’s champion, J.T. Poston.

Thunderstorms are often prevalent this time of year in the area, and the course gets over-watered to begin with. We should once again expect lush and receptive conditions. Two thirds of TPC Deere Run’s holes historically play under par, and eight holes feature over a 20% birdie rate. Last year, the D.A. Weibring design ranked as the eighth-easiest course on the PGA Tour, and it has ranked inside the top eight easiest courses on Tour over the last five years. All three of the par fives measure between 560 and 600 yards, feature over a 30% birdie rate, and should be reachable by nearly all players in the field. TPC Deere Run features a fairly even distribution of par fours, with three measuring between 350 and 400 yards, five measuring between 420 and 460, and three measuring over 475 yards. Last year, it featured the sixth-easiest set of par threes on the PGA Tour schedule and the sixth-easiest set of par fives on the schedule.

Michael Kim stated after his victory, “Guys like Zach Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Steve Stricker, you know, guys that don’t necessarily bomb the ball, but with good wedge game and putting they can do good out here. So kind of along that same mold. Greens are great. They’re soft, they’re rolling true, and they’re Bent greens, so you just got to hit your line.” Bryson echoed a similar sentiment, “Yeah, you’ve got to be hitting your wedges really close. If you can do that all week, you’ll be fine just fine. If you can make pars on the tough par threes and hit the fairway, I think you have a very good chance of playing well here.” D.A. Points was a little more cynical. “Again, for lack of a better term, it’s a putting contest and that’s why Steve Stricker and Zach Johnson win a lot because they make everything. I shoot under par every time I come here; it’s just not under par enough to see the weekend.” Points is not wrong. This is a putting contest, and putting contests are extremely volatile and the hardest tournaments to predict. Michael Kim came here in 2018 at 300/1 with three missed cuts in a row before winning here by gaining 13.5 strokes putting. Is this more of a putting contest than what we saw last week at the Rocket Mortgage? I guess it depends on the year, but the variance on last week’s leaderboard is very similar to what we should expect this week at TPC Deere Run. There are certainly some interesting aspects of this golf course, and I do think that it has more challenging green-side surrounds than it gets credit for, but at the end of the day, it’s another week of wedges and putting. Let’s dive into the stats.

Stats

• Off the Tee 
  • Last year, 17.5% of strokes gained at TPC Deere Run came off the tee, which is above the Tour average of 15.3%. Historically, the event average is 15.1%.
  • Elite drivers did dominate the leaderboard last year, and every single one of the top 15 players on the leaderboard gained strokes off the tee. Everyone in the top five gained over three strokes off the tee, including J.T. Poston and Christiaan Bezuidenhout, who are not typically known for their driving. Off the tee was clearly important here last year, but the fact that Poston and Bezuidenhout were able to gain strokes off the tee so easily speaks to the degree of difficulty at TPC Deere Run.
  • Last year, TPC Deere Run ranked 33rd out of 38 courses in off-the-tee difficulty, and it always ranks as one of the top 10 easiest courses in off-the-tee difficulty.
  • TPC Deere Run features the eighth-widest fairways on the PGA Tour, but it ranked 12th in missed fairway penalty and fifth in rough penalty. The rough at this golf course is fairly thick and players absolutely do want to be playing from the fairway. Yet the fairways are generally so easy to hit here that I am not really putting a ton of stock into driving accuracy or driving distance stats. Last year, it had the 10th-easiest fairways to hit on Tour. Most players are going to hit a lot of fairways here. Even if you are not the most accurate driver of the ball, you do have some room for error, and although it is a lot easier to score from the fairway, TPC Deere Run ranked 28th out of 40 courses last year in missed fairways that resulted in a penalty. It’s not as if there are a great deal of hazards on this course either.
  • Good drive percentage should help me weed out the players who are not necessarily elite off the tee but consistently put themselves in a position to hit the green in regulation, which is essentially all that I’m looking for this week. The best players in this field in good drive percentage are Russell Henley, Matthew NeSmith, Ryan Armour, Kevin Yu, Lucas Glover, Denny McCarthy, Nate Lashley, Michael Kim, Ben Martin, and Chez Reavie. 

• Approach 
  • Last year, 34.6% of strokes gained at TPC Deere Run came on approach, which is slightly below the event average of 35.4% and right in line with the Tour average of 34.7%.
  • Last year, TPC Deere Run ranked 27th out of 38 courses in approach difficulty, and it always ranks as one of the easier courses in approach difficulty, although not as easy as off the tee. It’s a tougher second-shot course than it is a first-shot course, but not by a wide margin.
  • Greens in regulation percentage at TPC Deere Run is 71% compared to the Tour average of 65.5%. Last year, it had the ninth-easiest greens to hit on the PGA Tour, and historically, it has ranked inside the top 10 in highest greens-in-regulation percentage.
  • It is certainly possible to succeed here without elite iron play. Dylan Frittelli won here in 2019 losing 0.9 strokes on approach, but he made up for it by gaining 7.5 putting. Frittelli is more of an outlier, however, as he was the only player in the entire top 25 to lose strokes on approach, and the leaderboard was made up of elite iron players (Russell Henley, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Lucas Glover, etc.)
  • It’s really an expertise with wedges that is most essential. 13.7% of approach shots at TPC Deere Run come from 100-125 yards, which is above the Tour average of 11.8%, and 19.0% of approach shots come from 125-150 yards, which is above the Tour average of 17%. With a fairly even dispersion distribution of short and long par threes, short, medium, and long par fours, and medium to short par fives, there’s not one proximity bucket that is overly essential at TPC Deere Run. With that being said, if forced to choose, 100 to 150 yards would be the bucket I would unequivocally go with. Both anecdotally and statistically, TPC Deere Run is more of a wedge course than anything else. The best wedge players in this field are Russell Henley, Russell Knox, Camilo Villegas, Chris Kirk, Charley Hoffman, Brian Stuard, Ryan Moore, Brendon Todd, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, and Ben Martin. 

• Around the Green 
  • Last year, 14.3% of strokes gained came around the green, which is below the Tour average of 14.5% but above the event average of 13.3%.
  • Last year, TPC Deere Run ranked 11th out of 38 courses in strokes gained around-the-green difficulty, and it historically ranks harder than Tour average every year. It’s harder to gain strokes around the green at TPC Deere Run than it is in any of the other four major statistical categories. 
  • Last year, TPC Deere Run ranked sixth out of 38 courses in around-the-green difficulty from the fairway, seventh out of 38 courses in around-the-green difficulty from the rough, and 27th out of 38 courses in around-the-green difficulty from the bunkers. Outside of some fairly benign bunkers, TPC Deere Run is sneakily one of the tougher courses on Tour around the green. It’s just something that never gets talked about because the players we see on television every year in contention to win the tournament are generally hitting around 80% of their greens in regulation. Yet in identifying players at the bottom of the board who just need to make the cut, skill around the green could actually be a difference maker. The best players in this field in recent around-the-green play have been Aaron Baddeley, Matthias Schwab, Brendon Todd, Eric Cole, Jonathan Byrd, Chris Kirk, Ricky Barnes, Matt Kuchar, Byeong-Hun An, and Zac Blair. 
  • Still, with one of the highest green-in-regulation percentages on Tour, I do not see short game mattering all that much this week. Any player who is relying too heavily on his short game this week is likely going to miss the cut. Two of the top five players last year lost strokes around the green, but for what it’s worth, J.T. Poston did lead the field in around-the-green play by a full stroke. Michael Kim won here losing strokes around the green, and Bronson Burgoon, who finished runner-up, also lost strokes around the green. Last year, Christiaan Bezuidenhout lost strokes around the green on debut, and Emiliano Grillo, who typically has an awful short game, finished runner-up. I have a small weight on around-the-green play, as it could play a role in helping players make the cut. There is not a ton of relevance here in the grand scheme of things, but I found it interesting that this course is sneaky tough around the greens.

• Putting 
  • Last year, 33.7% of strokes gained at TPC Deere Run came with the flat-stick, which is below event average of 36.2%, and below to the Tour average of 35.5%, so last year’s event was actually a lot less putting dependent than in years past.
  • Last year, TPC Deere Run ranked 33rd out of 38 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty, and it always ranks as one of the easiest putting courses on Tour.
  • TPC Deere Run ranks 32nd out of 38 courses in putting difficulty inside five feet, 31st out of 38 courses in putting difficulty from five to 15 feet, and 34th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty from greater than 15 feet. Unlike Detroit Golf Club, there is really no nuance to these greens whatsoever. Players absolutely need to gain a ton of strokes on the greens here, but judging by recent victories from the likes of Lucas Glover, you do need to be a good putter. The degree of difficulty on the greens is amongst the lowest on Tour.
  • Still, a preference of Bent-grass is preferred, and while plenty of poor putters have won here, I still want to identify players who are at least capable of spiking with the flat-stick, as this is not a course that does the best job of separating elite from average tee-to-green play. Last year, 14 of the top 15 players gained strokes putting. The prior year, the top 17 players on the leaderboard gained strokes putting, and six of the top seven players gained over three strokes putting.
  • In 2018, an objectively bad putter, Michael Kim, won this tournament by gaining 13.5 strokes putting. Point being, this is a tournament that can be won by anyone if they catch fire on the greens. The path tee to green is a lot more simplistic this week, even for the less impressive ball-strikers. The best putters on this surface over the last two years have been Justin Lower, Beau Hossler, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Seung-yul Noh, Eric Cole, Brendon Todd, Patrick Rodgers, Denny McCarthy, Austin Cook, and J.T. Poston. 

• Scoring Stats 
  • As already mentioned, TPC Deere Run is a golf course where it is absolutely essential to go low, so identifying the players who generate and capitalize on the most birdie opportunities per round will be essential. Nine of the top 10 in birdies or better gained finished in the top 10 on the leaderboard. Two years ago, Lucas Glover led the field in birdies or better gained and won the event. Kevin Na finished second and came runner-up. Last year’s champion, J.T. Poston, was fifth in birdies or better gained. Two thirds of the holes at TPC Deere Run play under par, so there are ample opportunities to score. The most prolific birdie makers in this field this year have been Taylor Montgomery, Eric Cole, Denny McCarthy, Cameron Young, Nick Taylor, Akshay Bhatia, Brandon Wu, Keith Mitchell, Dylan Wu, and Scott Piercy. 
  • Opportunities Gained measures the amount of birdie looks inside 15 feet a player gives themselves per round. This is a metric that always helps me identify players that might be under-valued due to a low conversion rate with the flat-stick. If their putting is anywhere near decent, any of the following leaders in opportunities gained are incredibly live to contend this week: Cameron Young, Kevin Yu, Ben Martin, Luke List, Eric Cole, Nate Lashley, Ryan Palmer, Charley Hoffman, Michael Kim, and Alex Smalley. 
  • While Detroit Golf Club, TPC Twin Cities, and TPC River Highlands are the only courses I am inputting specifically into my model, I still want to identify players who raise their baseline in easier scoring conditions. There are certain types of players — Matt Fitzpatrick, Will Zalatoris, or Jon Rahm, for example — who will be the first to tell you that they are far more comfortable in difficult scoring conditions. Yet not all players are built this way and many players actually prefer easier scoring conditions because it allows them to get out and run and places more of an emphasis on creating separation with the putter. Courses like TPC Deere Run reward an aggressive style of play where the goal is to always be in attack mode. The players that have performed the best in these types of scoring conditions are Seamus Power, Alex Smalley, Taylor Moore, Mark Hubbard, Taylor Montgomery, Matt Kuchar, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Russell Henley, Nick Hardy, and Greyson Sigg. 

• Course History/Comp Course History 
  • Course history at TPC Deere Run is a little tricky. There is a group of players who always seem to deliver here year after year (Ryan Moore, Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker, etc.), but it is not a very nuanced course, and guys can absolutely show up here and contend on their first appearance. Sean O’Hair and Dylan Frittelli both won on their first appearance. Sam Ryder finished runner-up on debut, and it is generally pretty easy to correct oneself over time here, as so much of performance is dependent on putting. J.T. Poston had not finished in the top 50 here in four appearances before winning, which is another indication that past performance here is not all that predictive. Still, this is a course that has been on the schedule for a long time, and there are always going to be players who become extremely comfortable with it. The best players in this field at TPC Deere Run have been Russell Henley, Ryan Moore, Scott Brown, Adam Schenk, Chris Stroud, Dylan Frittelli, Patton Kizzire, Lucas Glover, Seamus Power, and Zach Johnson. 
  • The other summer Bent-grass birdie fests, TPC River Highlands, Detroit Golf Club, and TPC Twin Cities, are probably the best reference point that we have. All of these courses feature very easy scoring conditions and similar agronomy. I do prefer Detroit Golf Club the most of the three, as TPC Twin Cities is littered with more hazards and actually does a better job of protecting par. Yet in terms of skillset required (wedge play and putting), all three of these courses are asking very similar questions.
  • The best players in this field at TPC River Highlands have been Chez Reavie, Kevin Streelman, Russell Henley, Ryan Moore, Chris Stroud, Webb Simpson, Tommy Gainey, Charley Hoffman, Beau Hossler, and Zach Johnson. 
  • The best players in this field at Detroit Golf Club have been Troy Merritt, Cameron Young, Chris Kirk, Nate Lashley, Taylor Moore, Stephan Jaeger, Sepp Straka, Henrik Norlander, Charley Hoffman, and Doc Redman. 
  • The best players in this field at TPC Twin Cities have been Adam Hadwin, Emiliano Grillo, Adam Long, Brice Garnett, Callum Tarren, Hank Lebioda, Greyson Sigg, J.T. Poston, Doug Ghim, and Michael Gligic. 
  • There are a ton of other birdie-fests on the PGA Tour that require a similar skill-set to TPC Deere Run. Any course with wide open fairways and very straightforward Bent-grass greens could also fall into this category. The Summit Club, previous host of the CJ Cup, and TPC Craig Ranch would both fall into this category.

Model

• Off the Tee (12%)
  • Good Drive Percentage (6%)
  • Recent Off-the-Tee Form (6%)
• Approach (27%)
  • Recent Approach Form (17%)
  • Proximity 100-125 yards (4%)
  • Proximity 125-150 yards (6%)
• Around the Green (7%)
  • Recent Around-the-Green Form (7%)
• Putting (12%)
  • Strokes Gained Putting: Bent-grass (12%)
• Scoring Stats (27%)
  • Birdies or Better Gained (9%)
  • Opportunities Gained (9%)
  • Strokes Gained Total: Easy Scoring Conditions (9%)
• Course History/Comp Course History (15%)
  • TPC Deere Run (6%)
  • TPC River Highlands (3%)
  • TPC Twin Cities (3%)
  • Detroit Golf Club (3%)

Top 20 

1. Eric Cole
2. Mark Hubbard
3. Chris Kirk
4. Denny McCarthy
5. Russell Henley
6. Emiliano Grillo
7. Nick Taylor
8. Stephan Jaeger
9. Nate Lashley
10. Patrick Rodgers
11. Brendon Todd
12. Adam Hadwin
13. Cameron Young
14. Alex Smalley
15. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
16. Akshay Bhatia
17. Dylan Wu
18. Samuel Stevens
19. Matt Kuchar
20. Keith Mitchell