By Andy Lack

2023 Course Breakdown: Everything You Need to Know About TPC Louisiana 

The Basics

• Course: TPC Louisiana
• Location: Avondale, Louisiana
• Designer: Pete Dye (2004)
• Length: Par 72; 7,425 yards
• Hazards: 5 individual water hazards
• Fairways: TifSport Bermuda-grass
• Rough: TifSport Bermuda-grass (1’75”)
• Greens: MiniVerde Bermuda-grass over-seeded with Poa Trivialis and Velvet Bent-grass, running 12 on the stimp and measuring 5,225 yards on average

The Zurich Classic of New Orleans is a professional golf tournament in Louisiana on the PGA Tour, currently held at TPC Louisiana in Avondale, New Orleans. The event was first contested in 1938 and has been a staple of the PGA Tour since 1958, always played in the early to mid spring and hosted at the Pete Dye-designed TPC Louisiana since 2004.

TPC Louisiana was designed in 2004 by Pete Dye, who we have grown very accustomed to on the PGA Tour lately. The Dye design has been the host course of the Zurich Classic since, although prior to 2017, this event was a stroke play event.  We do have some data from individual stroke play rounds, but it’s coming from over five years ago. The course has since been lengthened by over 200 yards. The extra length didn’t really change much of the character of the course, but it’s certainly worth mentioning.

As far as the new format goes, the field consists of 80 two-man teams. The format is better ball in rounds one and three, and alternate shot in rounds two and four. The top 33 teams plus ties will advance to the weekend. I still created a model, but this is the ultimate “go with your gut” week. If you thought trying to predict the Match Play was difficult, you’re in store for some fun in New Orleans. I essentially looked at a number of long-term stats based on course fit that will hopefully help me identify teams that might be undervalued in DraftKings. We already know that the winner will likely be one of the heavy hitting teams, as there is such a wide gap between the teams with two elite players and the bottom of the board. Many of the players in the field this week barely even have status on the PGA Tour, or are years past their prime. With all of this being said, it’s a fun event, and I would have a hard time arguing with a strategy that involves simply just betting or rostering who you want to root for. If you are crazy enough to think data could matter this week like myself, here are my thoughts on TPC Louisiana

Stats 

• Off the Tee 
  • In 2016, 14.0% of strokes gained at TPC Louisiana came off the tee, which is below the Tour average of 15.2%.
  • Between 2015 and 2016, TPC Louisiana ranked 23rd out of 37 courses on average in strokes gained off the tee difficulty.
  • Driving accuracy at TPC Louisiana consistently ranks above Tour average. Between 2015 and 2016, the Dye design ranked 33rd out of 37 courses in driving accuracy percentage.
  • TPC Louisiana also ranked 31st out of 37 in missed fairway penalty, and 26th out of 37 courses in average difference score between drives in the fairway and drives in the rough.
  • While it’s hard to put a massive amount of stock into driving distance at this course given the amount of shorter players who have experienced so much success here, TPC Louisiana is most definitely a course that allows players to let loose off the tee. Between 2015 and 2016, TPC Louisiana featured the 7^th-highest driving distance on the PGA Tour.
  • There certainly is some trouble off the tee, as TPC Louisiana ranked 12th out of 37 courses in fraction of missed fairways that result in a penalty stroke, but there is still ample room off the tee for players to bomb away with driver.
  • TPC Louisiana is unlike other Dye designs such as Harbour Town, Austin Country Club, and TPC Sawgrass that force players to club down off the tee. Players can wail away with little concern for the short, benign Bermuda rough. TPC Louisiana is one of the least penal courses off the tee on the entire PGA Tour schedule, which still gives an inherent advantage to the longer hitters. The longest players in this field off the tee are Brandon Matthews, Wyndham Clark, Matthias Schmid, Kyle Westmoreland, Trey Mullinax, Trevor Cone, Byeong Hun An, Luke List, Nicolai Hojgaard, and Keith Mitchell. 

• Approach 
  • In 2016, 36.4% of strokes gained came on approach, which is above the Tour average of 34.7%
  • TPC Louisiana is also one of the easiest approach courses on the PGA Tour. Between 2015 and 2016, it ranked 33rd out of 38 courses on average in strokes gained approach difficulty.
  • Greens in regulation percentage at TPC Louisiana has historically been 69% compared to the Tour average of 65.6%. It has historically had the seventh-easiest greens to hit on the PGA Tour.
  • TPC Louisiana ranked 31st out of 37 courses in difficulty of approach shots under 150 yards, and 33rd out of 37 courses in difficulty of approach shots above 150 yards.
  • As far as approach shot distribution goes, 29.9% of approach shots at TPC Louisiana come from 200 yards plus, which is significantly above Tour average. Likely the hardest aspect of TPC Louisiana is its amount of long iron shots. The only other proximity bucket that ranks above Tour average is from 100-125 yards (14%). The amount of long iron shots is explainable by the course layout. Four par fours at TPC Louisiana are above 450 yards, and all four of the par fives measure between 548 and 585 yards and should be reachable by nearly all players in the field. Every single one of the par threes also measures above 200 yards. Despite the fact that players will have a long iron in their hands often, the actual degree of difficulty of these shots is very low, as there are very few green side hazards or undulation to the putting surfaces.
  • Five par fours also measure under 403 yards, so players will also have their fair share of short iron approach shots as well. The high dispersion of shots over 200 yards, plus the absence of many medium-length par fours has me leaning toward identifying strong long iron players. If they are deadly with a wedge in their hands, that’s certainly a bonus. The best long iron players in this field are Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay, Kurt Kitayama, Tom Hoge, Xander Schauffele, Tommy Gainey, Max Homa, Luke List, Sungjae Im, and Austin Smotherman. 

• Around the Green 
  • In 2016, 13.1% of strokes gained at TPC Louisiana came around the green, which is well below the Tour average of 14.5%.
  • TPC Louisiana ranked 29th out of 37 courses on average between 2015 and 2016 in strokes gained around the green difficulty. It has ranked 25th out of 37 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty from the fairway, 33rd out of 37 courses in strokes gained difficulty from the rough, and 22nd out of 37 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty from the bunkers. Ultimately, players can get away with a spotty around the green game at TPC Louisiana. It is one of the easiest short game courses on Tour and I would certainly not get overly invested in looking at short game metrics this week.

• Putting 
  • In 2016, 36.5% of strokes gained at TPC Louisiana came with the flat-stick, which is slightly above the Tour average of 35.6%.
  • TPC Louisiana ranked 32nd out of 37 courses on average between 2015 and 2016 in strokes gained putting difficulty. It has ranked 33rd out of 37 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty from five to 15 feet, and 32nd out of 37 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty over 15 feet.
  • The Pete Dye design is essentially set in a marsh. It’s an extremely flat golf course, and its greens feature very little undulation or slope. Putting is certainly very important in team play, but these greens are extremely benign. I still have a relatively fair weight on putting this week, as I do on any course with a high greens in regulation percentage that yields low scores. Similar to events such as the Byron Nelson and American Express, the Zurich Classic could certainly fall into the category of a “putting contest,” as it fails to provide a great deal of pushback from tee to green. TPC Louisiana is not overly penal off the tee nor on approach, so it is not a course that does a great job of separating the elite ball-strikers. For this reason, we have seen elite putters such as Cameron Smith, Billy Horschel, and Kevin Kisner experience such a great deal of success here.
  • As is always the case with over-seeded Bermuda greens, I will be looking at a weighted combination of putting metrics from other courses with the same over-seeded blend (TPC Scottsdale, TPC San Antonio, Harbour Town, PGA West, Innisbrook, and TPC Sawgrass). The best putters on this specific surface have been Ben Taylor, Sam Burns, Taylor Montgomery, Sam Ryder, Martin Trainer, Harry Hall, Ben Griffin, Brendon Todd, and Kelly Kraft. 

• Scoring Stats 
  • In general, TPC Louisiana is a fairly easy golf course. In 2015 and 2016, when this tournament was a stroke play event, the Dye design ranked respectively as the seventh-easiest and second-easiest course on Tour.
  • As I’m sure you can probably hypothesize if you are this far into the article, birdies are the name of the game at TPC Louisiana. Over 50% of the holes at this golf course have over a 15% birdie rate. All four of the par fives have over a 30% birdie rate, and the par five seventh hole has a 46% birdie rate. The players that make the most birdies in this field per round are Patrick Cantlay, Taylor Montgomery, Max Homa, Wyndham Clark, Tom Hoge, Sam Ryder, Xander Schauffele, Sungjae Im, Collin Morikawa, and Akshay Bhatia. 
  • I also wanted to look at players that raise their baseline in easy scoring conditions, as especially in alternate shot, teams will need to be incredibly comfortable going low. The best players in this field in easy scoring conditions are Patrick Cantlay, Tom Hoge, Tom Kim, Sam Burns, Taylor Montgomery, Thomas Detry, Taylor Moore, and Xander Schauffele. 
  • I always look to load up on scoring stats on courses where I know players will be required to go low and generate opportunities for themselves at a high clip. There are still enough wedges on this course where I also want to identify the players that rate out the highest in opportunities gained, a stat that measures the most birdie or eagle opportunities generated inside 15 feet per round. Those players are Tom Hoge, Patrick Cantlay, Si Woo Kim, Kurt Kitayama, Davis Riley, Xander Schauffele, Wyndham Clark, Collin Morikawa, David Lipsky, and Charley Hoffman. 
  • TPC Louisiana is also a par 72 with four gettable par fives, so let’s add par five scoring to the mix as well. The best par five scorers in this field are Patrick Cantlay, Wyndham Clark, Sungjae Im, Xander Schauffele, Matt Wallace, Matt Fitzpatrick, Adam Hadwin, Kyle Westmoreland, Davis Thompson, and Taylor Pendrith. 

• Comp Courses/Course History 
  • I’ve already alluded to the fact that I’m abstaining from looking at other shorter, positional Pete Dye courses such as Austin Country Club, Harbour Town, TPC River Highlands, and TPC Sawgrass. TPC Louisiana is far more driver heavy and strategically dissimilar from the aforementioned tracks.
  • Instead, I prefer other flatter, driver heavy, TPC style courses with similar agronomy such as TPC San Antonio and TPC Scottsdale. For the record, TPC Louisiana’s superintendent, Brandon Reese, formerly worked at both TPC Scottsdale as well as TPC San Antonio. Both courses are slightly more challenging and penal than TPC Louisiana, but not overtly so. The best players in this field at TPC Scottsdale have been Xander Schauffele, Sungjae Im, Byeong Hun An, Max Homa, Patrick Cantlay, Sahith Theegala, Billy Horschel, Adam Hadwin, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Russell Knox. 
  • The best players in this field at TPC San Antonio have been Aaron Baddeley, Charley Hoffman, Zach Johnson, Si Woo Kim, Samuel Stevens, Kevin Chappell, Ryan Palmer, Grayson Murray, Billy Horschel, and MJ Daffue. 
  • The Stadium Course at PGA West is another strong comp as a Pete Dye course with similar agronomy that features even closer scoring conditions to TPC Louisiana. The best players in this field at PGA West have been Si Woo Kim, Adam Hadwin, Sam Burns, Matthias Schmid, Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im, Tom Hoge, Tano Goya, Harrison Endycott, and Matthias Schwab. 
  • Of course, we can also look at the players who have performed well at TPC Louisiana when it was a stroke play event, although this course has since been lengthened and any data from five plus years ago should be taken with a great of salt. The best players in this field at TPC Louisiana have been Jason Dufner, Steve Stricker, Luke Donald, Charley Hoffman, David Hearn, Tommy Gainey, Seung-yul Noh, Greg Chalmers, Byeong Hun An, and Robert Streb. 

Model

• Off the Tee (13%)
  • Strokes Gained Off the Tee (5%)
  • Driving Distance (8%)
• Approach (29%)
  • Strokes Gained Approach (16%)
  • Long-term Proximity 200 yards plus (10%)
  • Long-term Proximity 100-125 yards (3%)
• Putting (14%)
  • Strokes Gained Putting: Over-seeded Bermuda (14%)
• Scoring Stats (30%)
  • Par 5 Scoring (5%)
  • Strokes Gained Total: Easy Scoring Conditions (5%)
  • Opportunities Gained (8%)
  • Birdies or Better Gained (12%)
• Course History/Comp Course History (14%)
  • TPC Louisiana (5%)
  • TPC San Antonio (3%)
  • TPC Scottsdale (3%)
  • PGA West Stadium Course (3%)

Model Top 20 

1. Xander Schauffele & Patrick Cantlay (5)
2. Max Homa & Collin Morikawa (14)
3. Sungjae Im & Keith Mitchell (18)
4. Davis Riley & Nick Hardy (24)
5. Kurt Kitayama & Taylor Montgomery (34)
6. Justin Suh & Sahith Theegala (41)
7. Tom Kim & Si Woo Kim (42)
8. Thomas Detry & Victor Perez (46)
9. Harry Hall & Akshay Bhatia (60)
10. Nick Taylor & Adam Hadwin (63)
11. Taylor Moore & Matthew NeSmith (64)
12. Chesson Hadley & Ben Martin (65)
13. Joel Dahmen & Denny McCarthy (73)
14. Matt Wallace & Callum Shinkwin (78)
15. Ben Taylor & Callum Tarren (79)
16. Wyndham Clark & Beau Hossler (81)
17. Ben Griffin & Ryan Gerard (82)
18. Sam Burns & Billy Horschel (86)
19. Tom Hoge & Harris English (86)
20. Erik Van Rooyen & MJ Daffue (88)