2023 Travelers Championship Breakdown: TPC River Highlands
The Basics
- Course: TPC River Highlands
- Location: Cromwell, CT
- Designer: Pete Dye (1982), with some renovation work done in 2016
- Length: Par 70; 6,814 yards
- Hazards: Water comes into play on five holes
- Fairways: Bent-grass with Poa Annua
- Rough: Kentucky Blue-grass with Fescue, four inches
- Greens: Bent-grass and Poa Annua blend, measuring 5,000 square feet, and running 12 on the stimp
The PGA Tour heads cross-country this week to Cromwell, Connecticut for the Travelers Championship, one of the most beloved weeks of the season. With that being said, I’m not sure that the top players will share that same enthusiasm after a West Coast U.S. Open. I cannot understand for the life of me why the Travelers was granted elevated status this year, the week after a major championship in Los Angeles. It would be one thing if the U.S. Open was held at Brookline, or even the Midwest, but I can’t imagine the Tour’s top stars will be excited about this aspect of the schedule. Still, the Travelers Championship has been known to treat its players and caddies incredibly well, and it’s an event that unquestionably means a lot to the community. Northwest Connecticut is starved for sports, and fans do tend to show out for this one. Even if half of the players are exhausted, it will still be a treat to see many of the game’s top names in attendance in Cromwell.
TPC River Highlands is a bit of an anomaly. Last year, it played as the shortest course on the PGA Tour, with both the shortest set of par fours and par fives, and yet it never plays as one of the easiest in scoring average. On paper, this is a golf course that should produce a winning score of 25 under par every year, and yet the winning score is always in the teens, sometimes as low as 12 under. My best explanation for this is that Pete Dye’s architecture just does a really good job of standing up to modern technology. This is a 6,800-yard golf course that routinely plays right around even par to just slightly under par. The scoring speaks to the amount of visual deception at TPC River Highlands, and tournament organizers do a fine job of tucking pins here. There is plenty of room off the tee, but the penalty for missing is grave. The rough here is always fairly thick and sticky. The greens are on the smaller side, and while not overly undulating, it’s a really tough course around the greens.
Basically all styles of play can succeed here. We’ve seen extremely short hitters such as Chez Reavie, Kevin Streelman, Ken Duke, Russell Knox, and Kramer Hickok have a ton of success here. We’ve also seen Bubba Watson, Dustin Johnson, and Marc Leishman bomb their way to the top of the leaderboard as well. There was one year where Bubba Watson and Corey Pavin were in a playoff together, which just speaks to how unique of a golf course this is. TPC River Highlands is not a golf course where if a player is elite at one specific skill, they are bound to have success. Nor is it a golf course where one weakness will deem a player dead either. Driving accuracy feels important because of how thick the rough is, but Bubba Watson and Dustin Johnson have both won this event ranking outside the top 50 in driving accuracy percentage. On the other hand, Chez Reavie, Kevin Streelman, Ken Duke, and Freddie Jacobson all ranked inside the top 15 in driving accuracy. We could call TPC River Highlands a wedge course with such a high plurality of shots coming from 125 to 175 yards, and that’s certainly true, but the degree of difficulty with iron shots here aren’t overly challenging (and the amount of strokes gained that have come on approach here is still below Tour average.) We could call TPC River Highlands a short game course because there is a lot of challenge around the greens, but it’s not as if a greens in regulation percentage of 65% is all that low. It’s hard to call it a putting contest either. You have to absolutely be putting well here, but there’s still enough challenge from tee to green where the percentage of strokes gained putting gained ranks below Tour average.
Overall, I would advise towards a fairly balanced model. A player who possesses above-average accuracy off the tee, is a great wedge player, has a deft touch around the greens, and has a proven track record of success on shorter Pete Dye courses is certainly preferred. Chez Reavie described the challenge well, “You can shape it both ways off the tee; hit every club in your bag, from longer irons to short irons. It’s just a test of all your shots. That’s something I like. I’m a shot-maker. I like to work it both ways. I’ve always loved the layout since the first time I came here. Just the way the holes are shaped, you can shape shots and think around the greens. It’s a great challenge and something I really enjoy.” If we think about any golf course that Bubba Watson and Jordan Spieth have had success, there has to be an element of shot-making and creativity involved. TPC River Highlands is a golf course that welcomes all different types of strategies and ball flights. Players can hit driver on every hole, or hit driver on zero holes. You can win here hitting a draw, or you can win here hitting a fade. That’s why I believe we’ve seen so many shot-makers and guys who just go out and play golf who have so much success here. Let’s dive into the stats.
Stats
- Off the Tee
- Last year, 20% of strokes gained at TPC River Highlands came off the tee, which is well above the Tour average of 15.3%. Historically, that number falls a touch to 18.3%, which is still comfortably above Tour average.
- Last year, TPC River Highlands ranked 10th out of 38 courses in strokes gained off-the-tee difficulty, and it historically ranks a bit harder than Tour average in this category, but it is rarely in the top 10 hardest.
- TPC River Highlands actually has some of the wider fairways on the PGA Tour and driving accuracy percentage is always high at TPC River Highlands. The penalty for missing the fairway is grave though, as TPC River Highlands ranks third out of 38 courses in missed fairway penalty, 15th out of 38 courses in rough penalty, and fourth out of 38 courses in fraction of missed fairway drives that result in a penalty stroke.
- TPC River Highlands is a strange course off the tee in the sense that it’s not overly difficult to hit fairways here, especially considering the fact that players do not even need to hit driver if they don’t want to. Driving accuracy percentage is comfortably above Tour average, and there is not some huge correlation between hitting a bunch of fairways and finishing top-10 or top-five, but the penalty for missing remains among the gravest on Tour. We’ve seen players such as Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson bomb away with driver and still be able to navigate a ton of short-iron approach shots from the rough, which makes it feel more of an apt week to look at good drive percentage on shorter courses. The leaders in this category are Corey Conners, Viktor Hovland, Chez Reavie, Aaron Rai, Hayden Buckley, Collin Morikawa, J.J. Spaun, Shane Lowry, Scottie Scheffler, and Ryan Armour.
- I’m also looking at strokes gained off the tee on shorter courses. I think there are a ton of ways to play a golf course like TPC River Highlands off the tee, and I wanted to identify players who find a way to dominate on these shorter courses with their first shot. Whether that’s through hitting a ton of fairways or bombing away with driver is irrelevant to me. Yet looking at off-the-tee metrics, which include courses such as Torrey Pines, Oak Hill, Bay Hill, etc. where driver is the only option, is of little relevance at TPC River Highlands. I want to see how players perform on courses that give you options off the tee. The best drivers of the ball on shorter courses in this field are Sungjae Im, Corey Conners, Cameron Davis, Hayden Buckley, Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Luke List, Cameron Young, Tyler Duncan, and Keegan Bradley.
- Approach
- Last year, 33.2% of strokes gained came on approach, which is slightly below the Tour average of 34.8%. That number does fall to 31.4% historically.
- Last year, TPC River Highlands ranked 28th out of 38 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty, and it historically ranks among the easier courses on the PGA Tour in strokes gained approach difficulty.
- Last year, TPC River Highlands featured the 11th-highest greens in regulation percentage on the PGA Tour, and it ranks easier than Tour average in terms of approach difficulty inside 150 yards and approach difficulty from greater than 150 yards.
- The two approach buckets that rank heavily above average are 125-150 yards and 150-175 yards. 19.4% of approach shots have come from 125-150 yards, which is above the Tour average of 17%. A whopping 27.1% of approach shots have come from 150-175 yards, which is well above the Tour average of 150-175 yards.
- Here’s a quote from Bubba Watson: “First hole is going to be a wedge, second hole, wedge, third hole wedge, these are the approach shots. Then the next hole, 8, 9 or wedge, next hole 6 to 5 iron, next hole is a 3 iron going for it in two, next hole is a wedge, next hole is a wedge, next hole is a wedge, or if you drive the green you can putt, next hole is a 9 or 8, 17 is a 9 or a wedge, and 18 is a wedge. So when you look at that, why would I not want to play here if I’m hitting that many wedges. It doesn’t matter if I’m in the rough or not, those are the clubs I’m hitting.” So there you go, there are a ton of short irons on this course! Even if you aren’t Bubba Watson, TPC River Highlands is a still a course where players will have a ton of scoring clubs coming in. The best mid- to short-iron players in this field are Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Tom Kim, Cameron Young, Russell Knox, Jon Rahm, Ryan Moore, and Tom Hoge.
- Around the Green
- 15.2% of strokes gained at TPC River Highlands have come around the green, which is a touch above the Tour average of 14.5%. That number rises a touch historically to 15.4%, which is still a touch above Tour average.
- Last year, TPC River Highlands ranked third out of 38 courses in strokes gained around-the-green difficulty, and historically, it ranks among the three hardest courses on the PGA Tour in strokes gained around-the-green difficulty.
- Last year, TPC River Highlands ranked fourth out of 38 courses in around-the-green difficulty from the fairway, fourth out of 38 courses in around-the-green difficulty from the rough, and ninth out of 38 courses in around-the-green difficulty from the bunkers. It’s one of the absolute most challenging short game courses on the PGA Tour, which remains a bit of a surprise to me!
- The only reason why I would not be going higher on around-the-green play here is the fact that there is a fairly high greens and regulation percentage. Yet still, players who miss the greens will be faced with challenging up and downs. The best players around the green this year have been Brendon Todd, Scottie Scheffler, Byeong Hun An, Harry Hall, Ben Griffin, Hideki Matsuyama, Matthias Schwab, Tommy Fleetwood, Jason Day, and Rickie Fowler.
- Putting
- Last year, 31.6% of strokes gained at TPC River Highlands came with the flat-stick, which is comfortably below the Tour average of 35.5%. That number does rise historically to 34.8%.
- Last year, TPC River Highlands ranked 22nd out of 38 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty, and it ranks right around Tour average to slightly easier than Tour average in strokes gained putting difficulty historically.
- Last year, TPC River Highlands ranked 27th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty inside five feet, 18th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty from five to 15 feet, and 28th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty from greater than 15 feet.
- I do believe that this East Poa/Bent blend plays far more like Bent-grass than it does a West Coast Poa. Yet it is worth noting that many of the players them seem to perform well at West Coast Poa courses such as Pebble Beach and Riviera (Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Bubba Watson) seem to find success at TPC River Highlands as well. I essentially just wanted to take Bermuda out of the equation. There are a lot of courses, Detroit Golf Club for example, that do feature this Poa/Bent blend, and it is very common in the Northeast. The problem is that the PGA Tour doesn’t really go to the Northeast as much anymore, so there is not an active group of courses with this specific putting surface that we can draw a ton from outside of Detroit Golf Club and the occasional Northeast major championship venue. The best putters on Poa/Bent greens over the last two years have been Justin Lower, Patrick Cantlay, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Beau Hossler, Brendon Todd, Denny McCarthy, Alex Noren, Justin Suh, Rory McIlroy, and Patrick Rodgers.
- Scoring Stats
- In terms of scoring stats, opportunities gained could be a very valuable reference point due to the amount of wedges on this golf course. Opportunities gained measures the amount of birdie looks that a player gives themselves per round inside 15 feet. The player who rate out the highest in this category this week are Tom Hoge, Cameron Young, Tony Finau, Jon Rahm, Wyndham Clark, Scottie Scheffler, Gary Woodland, Patrick Cantlay, Corey Conners, and Justin Thomas.
- Comp Courses/Course History
- I do believe there is some nice nuance to this course and that the same players tend to play well here year after year. Out of all regular courses on the PGA Tour schedule, TPC River Highlands has the seventh-most predictive course history, behind only Augusta, Bay Hill, Colonial, Harbour Town, TPC Scottsdale, and Waialae. Players can show up and win here on their first appearance, a la Jordan Spieth, so I would not rule out a first-timer succeeding here on their first appearance. The best players in this field at TPC River Highlands have been Brian Harman, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Ryan Moore, Rory McIlroy, Kevin Streelman, Chez Reavie, Webb Simpson, Keegan Bradley, and Jason Day.
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- In terms of comparative courses, I think there are a lot of valuable courses that we could look at with TPC River Highlands. It certainly falls into the short, positional bucket, and if we are looking at other reference points that are similar in length to TPC River Highlands, but can also be taken advantage of with driver, I would start with Colonial. We’ve seen shorter fairway finders have a ton of success at both TPC River Highlands and Colonial, but we’ve also seen an aggressive strategy really pay off as well. The best players in this field at Colonial have been Emiliano Grillo, Collin Morikawa, Matt Kuchar, Tony Finau, Jon Rahm, Corey Conners, Viktor Hovland, Harris English, Scottie Scheffler, and Harry Hall.
- Colonial remains my strongest comparison in the sense of off-the-tee strategy. You can win at Colonial hitting a ton of fairways, or you can do what Jason Kokrak and Sam Burns did and play far more aggressively. Both TPC River Highlands and Colonial are shorter courses that invite both strategies off the tee and allow all types of players to succeed.
- TPC Potomac is definitely a harder golf course than TPC River Highlands, but both place an emphasis on keeping the ball in play off the tee. Neither courses are overly long, and both feature similar agronomy, lush rough, a Northeast climate, and similar aesthetics. The best players in this field at TPC Potomac have been Francesco Molinari, Keegan Bradley, Max Homa, Ryan Armour, Matt Fitzpatrick, Cameron Young, Rickie Fowler, Rory McIlroy, Stephan Jaeger, and Stewart Cink.
- I know that Sedgefield is a Bermuda golf course, but there’s still a big emphasis on positioning off the tee, and it’s no surprise that we have seen the same players pop up at both the Wyndham and the Travelers Championship. The best players in this field at Sedgefield have been Webb Simpson, Kevin Kisner, Sungjae Im, Billy Horschel, Russell Henley, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Zach Johnson, Ryan Moore, and Cameron Davis.
- Same with Harbour Town, a Pete Dye course with similar sightline. Harbour Town is a bit more of a placement course than TPC River Highlands. I think you can get a little more aggressive off the tee at a course like TPC River Highlands, but in terms of the visual deception, the Pete Dye aspect of it all, there’s certainly a lot in common. The best players in this field at Harbour Town have been Patrick Cantlay, Matt Kuchar, J.T. Poston, Matt Fitzpatrick, Cameron Davis, Brian Harman, Webb Simpson, Tommy Fleetwood, Emiliano Grillo, and Shane Lowry.
- There are a bunch of other decent reference points that tend to produce similar leaderboards such as Waialae, Austin Country Club, and TPC Sawgrass. The list goes on. In my opinion, there are actually far too many of these short, positional tests on the Tour schedule. I took a heavy look at all of the shorter courses that we see every year, and the best players on these courses have been Patrick Cantlay, Seamus Power, Russell Henley, Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland, Corey Conners, Sungjae Im, Tony Finau, Jon Rahm, and Brian Harman.
Model
- Off the Tee (16%)
- Strokes Gained Off the Tee: Short Courses (8%)
- Good Drive Percentage: Short Courses (8%)
- Approach (28%)
- Strokes Gained Approach (15%)
- Long-Term Proximity 125-150 yards (5%)
- Long-Term Proximity 150-175 yards (8%)
- Around the Green (9%)
- Strokes Gained Around the Green (9%)
- Putting (12%)
- Strokes Gained Putting: Bent-grass (12%)
- Scoring Stats (16%)
- Opportunities Gained (10%)
- Strokes Gained Total: Short Courses (6%)
- Comp Courses/Course History (19%)
- TPC River Highlands (7%)
- Colonial (3%)
- TPC Potomac (3%)
- Harbour Town (3%)
- Sedgefield (3%)
Model
- Scottie Scheffler
- Jon Rahm
- Tony Finau
- Patrick Cantlay
- Viktor Hovland
- Rory McIlroy
- Xander Schauffele
- Corey Conners
- Sungjae Im
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Russell Henley
- Keegan Bradley
- Collin Morikawa
- Si Woo Kim
- C.T. Pan
- Justin Thomas
- Max Homa
- Shane Lowry
- Tom Kim
- J.T. Poston
