2023 Course Breakdown: Everything You Need to Know About TPC San Antonio
The Basics
- Course: TPC San Antonio
- Location: San Antonio, Texas
- Designer: Greg Norman (2010) with bunker update in 2021
- Length: Par 72; 7,438 yards
- Hazards: Water comes into play on 3 holes
- Fairways: Perennial rye/chewing fescue
- Rough: Perennial rye/chewing fescue
- Greens: Bermuda-grass with Poa Trivialis over-seed
The Valero Texas Open has been a staple on the PGA Tour since 1922. It has always been hosted in the San Antonio area, and it is the sixth-oldest running professional golf event, the third-longest on the PGA TOUR, and the longest held in the same city. The tournament has been through a number of venues but has found a home at the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio since 2009. It’s also moved around a fair bit on the schedule. The event used to be part of the fall swing, and from 2011 to 2013 it was the week after the Masters. Yet since 2019, it has been held the week before the Masters, offering the final opportunity for a non-qualified winner to earn an invite to Augusta.
Seven of the last 11 years, the winner of this event has come at triple digit odds, and even the players that have won here at 25 to 30/1 (Jimmy Walker, Charley Hoffman, Kevin Chappell) are far from elite players. To me this has more to do with the strength of field and the schedule spot than it does the golf course. I would say there is a fair amount of tee-to-green skill involved at TPC San Antonio, and yet I would still likely look toward players who are not already qualified for the Masters. J.J. Spaun, Corey Conners, Ian Poulter, Russell Henley, Jim Herman, Matt Jones, and Martin Laird, which make up seven of the last 10 champions of the tournament the week before the Masters, were not already qualified for the festivities at Augusta. Jordan Spieth winning this event in 2021 was actually far more of an anomaly. This event is a classic lookahead spot and tune up event for the semi-elite players such as Tyrrell Hatton, Hideki Matsuyama, and Corey Conners that are already qualified for the year’s first major, and I would be wary of paying up for them in the betting market. Let’s dive into the golf course.
The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio was designed in 2010 by none other than current LIV Golf Series CEO Greg Norman. The former Australian star also designed former host of the PGA Tour’s Mayakoba Championship, El Chameleon, as well as the Earth Course, host to the DP World Tour Championship. I wouldn’t spend a ton of time analyzing Norman’s design philosophy, seeing as he doesn’t have one.
The Oaks Course is a par 72 that tips out to nearly 7,500 yards on the scorecard. It features the same style of Bermuda over-seeded greens that we have grown accustomed to recently with TPC Scottsdale, PGA West, TPC Sawgrass, Innisbrook, and Austin Country Club. Once again, this is a week where I will be looking at those who have performed the best on this style of putting surface. The Oaks course features fairly standard-sized greens at 6,400 square feet on average, as well as medium width fairways that measure 33 yards on average.
Historically, the Oaks Course plays fairly challenging for the most part. This event is by no means a birdie fest or a putting contest, although players have been able to score more liberally on years where the conditions are softer and the wind is down. Between 2011 and 2017, the winning score was between eight and 14 under par. From 2018 to 2021, the winning score was between 17 and 20 under par before difficult conditions last year saw J.J. Spaun claim victory at 13 under par. Course conditions, which dictate the winning score, generally just depend on the amount of wind and how much tournament organizers choose to water the greens. One of the reasons why we’ve seen shorter players such as Corey Conners, Andrew Landry, and Matt Kuchar find success here is because this is a golf course where the greens get far more water than the fairways. Although it looks long on the scorecard, TPC San Antonio is not over-imposing in its length, and the fairways generally run pretty well, dictating a driving distance above Tour average. Yes, there is some visual intimidation off the tee. Despite the lack of water hazards, TPC San Antonio is a fairly challenging driving course, and there are tons of ways in which players can find themselves in trouble here. Less we not forget that this is the same golf course in which Kevin Na made a 16 on one hole.
In terms of the actual course layout, the par threes are a stern test, all measuring between 171 and 241 yards and all playing over par. The quartet features the 8th, 12th, 9th, and 5th most difficult holes on the course. The Oaks Course features a nice mix of stout par fours as well. Once we get past the drivable par four 17th, the other nine par fours all measure between 401 and 481 yards. The course features five par fours that measure above 445 yards, and they make up five of the six toughest holes on the course. The par fives at the Oaks Courses are actually some of the longest and toughest on the PGA Tour. Unusually, three of the four par fives feature under a 30% birdie percentage, and three out of the four also measure above 590 yards on the scorecard and are not necessarily reachable by all players in two. Let’s run through some of the specific stats we should be looking out for.
Stats
- Off the Tee
- Last year, 16.1% of strokes gained at the Oaks Course came off the tee, which is above the Tour average of 15.2%. Historically, that number does fall to Tour average.
- Last year, the Oaks Course ranked 15th out of 38 courses in strokes gained off the tee difficulty, and historically, it usually sits in the 11 to 16 range, measuring slightly harder than Tour average.
- The Oaks Course features the 11th most narrow fairways on the PGA Tour, but it only ranks 24th out of 38 courses in missed fairway penalty, and historically, it ranks as one of the easier courses in missed fairway penalty. Part of the reason for this is the benign nature of the rough, as last year, TPC San Antonio ranked 32nd out of 38 courses in rough penalty, and historically, it ranks inside the top five in lowest rough penalty each of the last eight years.
- Of course, the one thing you cannot do at the Oaks Course is what Kevin Na did and find yourself in the rocks/forest. TPC San Antonio ranks sixth out of 38 courses in non-rough penalty. Missing in the rough is absolutely fine, but it’s really the big miss that we have to be concerned about. This illustrates why I believe this is a great week to look at good drive percentage. There is not a clear edge given to those who are the most accurate drivers of the ball in the world, but avoiding the big miss is paramount. The players that do the best job of putting their drives in a position where they can hit the green in regulation are Aaron Rai, Hayden Buckley, Tyler Duncan, Matthew NeSmith, Ryan Armour, Will Gordon, Tyrrell Hatton, Satoshi Kodaira, Nate Lashley, and Dylan Wu.
- My initial thought was that distance would be advantageous on this golf course because I think there is such an edge for those who can reach the par fives in two. Yet the last couple of years, the vast majority of those who have found success are by no means long off the tee. Jordan Spieth ranked first in par five scoring, Spaun ranked fourth, and Conners ranked 10th, so players with average to below average driving distance still found a way to take advantage of the par fives without necessarily reaching them in two. This may have something to do that often even the longest players in the field cannot reach these par fives in two strokes either, so everyone essentially lays up to the same spot. Thus, it turns into a contest of who is the best inside 125 yards. The year that Andrew Landry won, Vaughn Taylor (an extremely short hitter) ranked first in par five scoring without reaching any of the longer par fives in two. It’s not a question of power off the tee at the Oaks Course, and this course plays shorter than the scorecard suggests. Scanning through the leaderboards, it’s a lot of Jordan Spieth, Lucas Glover, Anirban Lahiri, Chris Kirk, Brandt Snedeker, Cameron Triangle, Tom Hoge, Matt Kuchar, Corey Conners, Ryan Moore, Brian Stuard, Kevin Streelman, Scott Brown, Graeme McDowell, Andrew Landry, Andrew Putnam, Billy Horschel, Vaughn Taylor, etc. all populating the top 15. None of those players are long off the tee, but all of them keep the ball in play and are solid wedge players. Ultimately where I land is a standard weight on off the tee, with a strong emphasis on good drive percentage.
- Approach
- Last year, 34.4% of strokes gained at the Oaks Course came on approach, which is right around the Tour average of 34.7%. Historically, that number sits at 34.0%, right around Tour average.
- Last year, the Oaks Course ranked 11th out of 38 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty, and historically, it usually plays slightly harder than Tour average.
- Last year, the Oaks Course ranked 11th out of 38 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty from inside 150 yards, and 12th in strokes gained approach difficulty from greater than 150 yards. Historically, the Norman design is one of the tougher second-shot courses on the PGA Tour.
- Last year, the only proximity buckets that ranked above Tour average were 50 to 75 yards, 75 to 100 yards, and 100 to 125 yards. Historically, 150-175 yards and 175-200 yards rank slightly above Tour average, but I would say that the Oaks Course is one of the most evenly distributed approach shot courses on the PGA Tour.
- If forced to choose a proximity bucket to focus on, I would still go the route of mid- to long-iron play given the length of the course, as 35% of all approach shots still come from 150 to 200 yards. The best mid- to long-iron players in this field are Satoshi Kodaira, Erik Van Rooyen, Si Woo Kim, Mark Hubbard, Matthew NeSmith, Lee Hodges, Rickie Fowler, J.J. Spaun, Justin Lower, and Nate Lashley.
- Around the Green
- Last year, 19.3% of strokes gained at the Oaks Course came around the green, which is well above the Tour average of 14.5%. Historically, that number dips to 17.8%, which is still well above Tour average.
- Last year, the Oaks Course ranked 20th out of 38 courses in around the green difficulty, and it historically ranks Tour average to slightly harder than Tour average.
- Last year, the Oaks Course ranked 18th out of 38 courses in around the green difficulty from the fairway, 33rd out of 38 courses in around the green difficulty from the rough, and 6th out of 38 courses in around the green difficulty from the bunkers.
- Given the lower-than-average greens in regulation percentage, I do believe this is a tournament where we want to value around-the-green play. Historically, short game has accounted for a far higher percentage of strokes gained than Tour average, and particularly bunker play has proven to be incredibly crucial, as this course features some of the most difficult bunkers on the PGA Tour. The best bunker players in this field are Byeong Hun An, Matt Kuchar, Robby Shelton, S.H. Kim, Ben Griffin, Hideki Matsuyama, Andrew Putnam, Patrick Rodgers, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, and Si Woo Kim.
- Putting
- Last year, 30.1% of strokes gained at the Oaks Course came putting, which is well below the Tour average of 35.6%. Historically, that number ticks up to 32.9%, which is still well below Tour average.
- Last year, the Oaks Course ranked 32nd out of 38 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty, and historically, the Norman design generally ranks middle of the pack in this category.
- I wouldn’t suggest that TPC San Antonio is a particularly challenging putting course or a course where putting is overly important. There is enough pushback from tee to green on this course to separate out the elite ball-strikers from the average ball-strikers. It ranks 33rd out of 38 courses in putting difficulty inside five feet, 33rd out of 38 courses in putting difficulty from five to 15 feet, and 14th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty from greater than 15 feet. Lag putting is a bit more challenging, but this is not a course where I would go overly heavy on putting other than looking at the best putters on over-seeded Bermuda-grass. The players in this field who have performed the best on this specific putting surface are Ben Taylor, Tyrrell Hatton, Taylor Montgomery, Brian Gay, Sam Ryder, Andrew Putnam, Alex Noren, Brendon Todd, Ben Griffin, and Matt Kuchar.
- Scoring Stats
- Par 5 scoring at the Oaks Course is incredibly important and is something I look at on most courses that play as a par 72. Four of the last eight winners led the field in par five scoring, and top-10 finishers on average have gained far more strokes to the field on the par fives relative to what they have on the par threes and par fours. The best long-term par five scorers in this field are Garrick Higgo, Cameron Davis, Patrick Rodgers, Kyle Westmoreland, Taylor Montgomery, Davis Thompson, Eric Cole, Matt Wallace, Tyrrell Hatton, and Taylor Pendrith.
- Comp Courses/Course History
- I don’t believe that TPC San Antonio is a particularly nuanced course or that history here is overly important. Of course there are certain players such as Charley Hoffman, Corey Conners, Jordan Spieth, and Zach Johnson who deserve a boost at this course and seem to play well here every year, but the Oaks Course is pretty much all out in front of you. There’s not really any hidden tricks to it, and first timers are certainly live. Zach Johnson won back-to-back in 2008 and 2009 in his first two appearances here. Brendan Steele won on his first appearance here, Pat Perez almost won on his first appearance here, as did Jim Furyk. If players possess great course history, that’s a nice bonus, but I’m not really docking first timers either. The best players in this field at TPC San Antonio have been Aaron Baddeley, Ryan Moore, Charley Hoffman, Kevin Streelman, Corey Conners, Chris Kirk, Ryan Palmer, Jimmy Walker, Matt Kuchar, and Si Woo Kim.
- In terms of comp courses, TPC Summerlin certainly has some similarities. Martin Laird has won at both tracks. Ryan Moore, Kevin Streelman, and Matt Kuchar have all performed at both TPC Summerlin and TPC San Antonio. Both courses feature moderate scoring conditions and place an emphasis on keeping the ball in play off the tee and mid- to short-iron play. The best players in this field at TPC Summerlin have been Matthew NeSmith, Martin Laird, Adam Schenk, Aaron Baddeley, Harry Hall, Si Woo Kim, Chesson Hadley, Rickie Fowler, S.H. Kim, Chesson Hadley, and Rickie Fowler.
- TPC Scottsdale has some similarities as well, including the agronomy, the emphasis on keeping the ball in play off the tee, moderate scoring conditions, and middle iron play. Charley Hoffman, Martin Laird, J.B. Holmes, Brandt Snedeker, amongst others have been great at both tracks. The best players in this field at TPC Scottsdale have been Rickie Fowler, Hideki Matsuyama, Byeong Hun An, Tyrrell Hatton, Matt Kuchar, Alex Noren, Martin Laird, Chez Reavie, James Hahn, and Russell Knox.
Model
- Off the Tee (18%)
- Strokes Gained Off the Tee (8%)
- Good Drive Percentage (10%)
- Approach (30%)
- Strokes Gained Approach (20%)
- Long-term Proximity 150-175 yards (5%)
- Long-term Proximity 175-200 yards (5%)
- Around the Green (20%)
- Strokes Gained Around the Green (12%)
- Sand Save Percentage (8%)
- Putting (10%)
- Strokes Gained Putting: Over-seeded Bermuda (10%)
- Scoring Stats (8%)
- Par 5 Scoring (8%)
- Comp Courses/Course History
- TPC San Antonio (7%)
- TPC Summerlin (4%)
- TPC Scottsdale (3%)
Model Top 20
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Matt Kuchar
- Robby Shelton
- Si Woo Kim
- Rickie Fowler
- Brendon Todd
- Stephan Jaeger
- Andrew Putnam
- Chris Kirk
- Cameron Davis
- Thomas Detry
- Joseph Bramlett
- Keith Mitchell
- Nick Taylor
- Eric Cole
- J.J. Spaun
- Matthew NeSmith
- Nate Lashley
- Cameron Percy
Best of luck this week – AL
