2023 Course Breakdown: Everything You Need to Know About TPC Sawgrass

The Basics 

• Course: TPC Sawgrass
• Location: Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
• Designer: Pete Dye (1980) with a Dye and Steve Wenzloff re-design in 2016)
• Length: Par 72; 7,256 yards
• Hazards: Water comes into play on 17 holes
• Fairways: Celebration Bermuda-grass over-seeded with Champion Fine Rye-grass
• Rough: Celebration Bermuda-grass over-seeded with Champion Fine Rye-grass measuring 2.5 inches
• Greens: TifEagle Bermuda-grass over-seeded with Poa Trivialis/Velvet Bent-grass measuring 5,500 square feet on average

The Players Championship has been the flagship event of the PGA Tour for decades. Originally conceived in 1974, it has been hosted at the iconic TPC Sawgrass, what many believe to be Pete Dye’s finest work. Last year, this event set the record for the largest purse in PGA Tour history with $20 million up for grabs, shattering the $12.5 million available at the 2021 U.S. Open. This year, the purse is even bigger, as the 2023 Players is breaking its own record as the largest amount of money rewarded for a professional golf tournament. Traditionally, it features the strongest field in the world, even stronger than the majors, but we can no longer say that as the Players will not feature the LIV players this year, while the majors will. This is a shame, as defending champion Cameron Smith will not be back to defend his title. It was an absolute blast to watch him play this course last year in a somewhat unconventional way.

Speaking of unconventional, only four of the last 10 winners at this event have been below 30/1, which is not exactly what you would expect for a tournament that features all of the elite players all in one spot. Yet the Players is an extremely variable tournament, as it features the most penalty strokes per round on the entire PGA Tour, and water comes into play on a whopping 17 holes. I actually would not be afraid to take some shots down the board this week. Si Woo Kim won this tournament at 500/1, and Tim Clark and Webb Simpson won in the triple digits as well. Even Martin Kaymer, who was in extremely poor form at the time, won this event at 90/1. I know that we have most of the best players of the world in attendance this week, but there is still so much variance involved at this tournament, and I’ve always felt like a player such as Tom Hoge or Corey Conners has a far better chance of snagging a Players than they do a Masters, U.S. Open, PGA, or British. We’ve actually seen a fair number of players come from the 40 to 100 range on the odds board at this event, which is right up my alley. I would certainly argue that elite players have far more of an advantage at a course like Bay Hill than they do at TPC Sawgrass, and we just saw a 220/1 shot emerge victorious there last week! Let’s dive into the course.

This course received a bit of an overhaul in 2017, so let’s start by running through the changes, as I do believe they are important. The course actually got 26 yards shorter, which mainly comes from the 12th hole, which was converted from a short, 358-yard par four into a drivable 302-yard par four. They essentially made the change so there would be a drivable par four coming down the stretch to create even more excitement, and while I do believe they succeeded in creating a drivable par four, I do not believe they succeeded in creating a strategically interesting hole. The 7th and 15th holes were also lengthened,

Spectator mounds between the 6th and 7th hole was moved to put in more water, which is really just for intimidation on the tee shot. All of the bunkers were re-built, and the greens got bigger on the 1st, 4th, 8th, 9th, 11th, 13th, and 14th, and all of those green complexes were modified. Yet the biggest of all changes was the over-seed, and a lot of this was done so the PGA Tour could completely control the conditions of this course. They made a switch to a much more consistent and less granular strain of Bermuda, which really allowed the Tour to manage the course however they want, and it appears that they are generally looking for a target score between 10 and 18 under, which they have achieved every year for the past decade. I would expect that trend to continue, as they were able to manage this tournament under crazy weather conditions last year.

The other big change that I would be careful with as it relates to course history is that in 2019, the tournament moved from May to March, which is one of the main reasons for the over-seed. So what does this all mean? Well, the addition of Rye-grass to rough creates a much more manageable and controllable rough than a pure sticky Bermuda. It’s still incredibly important to hit the fairways at TPC Sawgrass, but I do think that players have a little more control of their golf ball coming out of Bermuda-grass over-seeded with Rye-grass and Fescue. I mention all of this to say, I wouldn’t spend too much time analyzing anything really before 2019. Prior to 2019, the course had different green complexes, it was played at a different time of year under different conditions, different greens, different rough, and while all of this will likely get swept under the rug, I believe that it is valuable.

Before we dive into the stats, there were a couple player quotes worth paraphrasing that stood out to me:

• Webb Simpson talked about how he didn’t feel like TPC Sawgrass gives one particular type of golfer an advantage, which I would generally agree with. He discussed how you don’t need to hit driver on this course, and there’s an opportunity to a lot of different clubs off the tee at the Pete Dye design. He also discussed how the temptation at Pete Dye courses is to go at pins, but he won by playing to the middle of the green, which I thought was a really fascinating quote.
• Jason Day talked about how he always hits a ton of 2-irons off the tee at this course. When it gets really hot, the ball goes a long way, so you can hit irons off the tee and still have short clubs in. I think this was a bit more applicable when this tournament was played in May than March, but it’s still starting to heat up in Florida at this time of year.
• Sergio Garcia talked about how this is the type of golf course that asks you to hit a lot of different shots. It has small greens, so you are not going to have a ton of lag putts. He also talked about how Sawgrass reminded him of Valderrama, a former European Tour staple that will now be featured on the LIV Tour. The connection is strong. Sergio won at both Sawgrass and Valderrama. Martin Kaymer won at Sawgrass and has a runner-up at Valderrama. Shane Lowry has a runner-up at Valderrama and multiple top-15s at Sawgrass. Matt Fitzpatrick has a win at Valderrama and multiple top-15s at Sawgrass.
• Jordan Spieth talked about how you have to shape the ball both ways off the tee at Sawgrass and how there is a lot of imagination involved, a la Riviera and Augusta. I’m actually surprised Spieth hasn’t been better here over the years, as he has spoken openly about how much he likes this course.

In terms of the actual course, TPC Sawgrass ranked eighth of 38 courses in difficulty last year, and historically, it usually ranks somewhere between 2nd and 19th in terms of difficulty, so it really just depends on how windy it gets. Sawgrass consistently features some of the hardest par threes on the PGA Tour, despite them being one of the shortest sets of par threes on the schedule. Last year, it featured the 10^th-hardest set of par threes on the schedule, which is actually the easiest that they have played since 2015. The infamous island green 17th hole historically ranks as the sixth-hardest hole on the course, featuring a 10.4% bogey rate and a whopping 8% double bogey rate. The eighth hole, which measures 237 yards on the scorecard, is far more difficult, ranking as the third-hardest hole on the course, and over a quarter of all players make bogey or worse there.

TPC Sawgrass also featured the third-most difficult set of par fours last year, and each of the last eight years, it has ranked inside top 14 most difficult set of par fours on the PGA Tour. Only five par fours measure over 450 yards, and none measure over 480 yards, but they respectively rank as the 5th, 1st, 7th, 4th, and 2nd most difficult holes on the course, all playing to a scoring average over 4.1 and featuring a bogey rate of over 20%.

Finally, the par fives provide some respite. They ranked 15th out of 38 courses in scoring average, and each of the last eight years, they have ranked outside the top 10 in scoring difficulty. Each feature over a 30% birdie rate, and the 16th hole, one of the most famous holes on the PGA Tour, features a 44.7% birdie rate and a 3% eagle rate, but also close to a 10% bogey rate, the sign of a great par five. Let’s dive into the stats.

Stats 

• Off the Tee 
  • Last year, 17.1% of strokes gained at TPC Sawgrass came via off the tee, which is comfortably above the Tour average of 15.2%. That number does drop to 15.8% historically, which is still slightly above the Tour average.
  • Last year, TPC Sawgrass was the hardest course on Tour in strokes gained off the tee difficulty, and historically, it always ranks inside the top 12 in this category.
  • TPC Sawgrass ranked second last year in average driving distance on par fours and par fives, which basically displays the fact that players are clubbing down off the tee often.
  • TPC Sawgrass featured the 12th most narrow fairways on the PGA Tour, measuring about 31 yards wide on average at the 250-yard mark, but they get a lot narrowercloser to the 320 mark. The Pete Dye design is definitely not a course that can be bomb and gauged, and I would certainly consider it more of a less-than-driver, positional golf course. I understand that Bryson almost won here in 2021, and players such as Rory McIlroy and Jason Day have had their fair share of success, but I hope that does not throw people on the scent that this course can be overpowered. First of all, and I know it’s hard to believe now that he has fallen into deep irrelevance on the LIV Tour, but Bryson Dicamba is a downright elite golfer and can win anywhere, even on courses that take driver out of your hands. Keep in mind that he also won at Harbour Town, a course even more positional and claustrophobic than Bay Hill. Bryson also played extremely conservatively that week, and the reason why he was in the mix had very little to do with what he did off the tee, and more what he did on approach. Same with Rory, who won his Players due to an elite iron week, not an elite off-the-tee week. Players such as Rory and Tiger Woods are far more conservative and thoughtful off the tee than they get credit for. Yes, especially in the case of Rory, their driver is a weapon when it needs to be, but they also know that it is not often necessary at a course like TPC Sawgrass.
  • The fairways here are extremely tight, especially farther up, water comes into play on many tee shots, and TPC Sawgrass is not a long golf course. Essentially, expect to see players hit a hit a ton of three woods, driving irons, and even four and five irons off the tee.
  • TPC Sawgrass ranked eighth in missed fairway penalty, and each of the last eight years, it has ranked inside the top 10 in missed fairway penalty. The Dye design ranked seventh last year in rough penalty, and seventh in fraction of missed fairways that resulted in a penalty stroke. This is a golf course where we want to identify the players that do an excellent job of keeping the ball in play off the tee, specifically on short, club-down golf courses.
  • A player’s performance off the tee at Torrey Pines or Bay Hill is of little relevance to me, but which players have done the best job of gaining strokes off the tee at courses like Harbour Town and Sedgefield over the years? The players that gain the most strokes off the tee on short, positional golf courses are Sungjae Im, Corey Conners, Keith Mitchell, Cameron Davis, Tony Finau, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Luke List, and Patrick Cantlay. 
  • The players that rate out most highly in good drive percentage, which measures the amount of greens in regulation hit combined with the number of fairways hit on short, positional golf courses are Corey Conners, Collin Morikawa, Adam Hadwin, Chez Reavie, Aaron Rai, Justin Suh, Viktor Hovland, Russell Henley, J.J. Spaun, and Webb Simpson. 

• Approach

• • Last year, 34.9% of approach shots at TPC Sawgrass came via approach, which is a touch above the Tour average of 34.7%, but historically, that number rises all the way up to 38.2%, so over a larger sample size, iron play has proven to be incredibly important at TPC Sawgrass.
  • Last year, TPC Sawgrass ranked sixth out of 38 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty, and each of the last eight years, it has ranked inside the top 11 inside this category.
  • Last year, TPC Sawgrass featured the 16^th-easiest greens to hit on the PGA Tour, as while the approach shots have a high degree of difficulty, this is still a very short golf course. In the same token, the Dye design likely features the toughest wedge shots found on the PGA Tour, ranking 2nd out of 38 courses last year in strokes gained approach difficulty inside 150 yards.
  • Last year, the approach buckets at TPC Sawgrass that ranked higher than Tour average were 50 to 100 yards, 175 to 200 yards, and 200 yards plus. Last year, 11.1% of approach shots at TPC Sawgrass came from 50 to 100 yards, which is higher than the Tour average of 10.5%. Last year, 17.9% of approach shots at TPC Sawgrass came from between 175-200, which is slightly above the Tour average of 17.5%. Last year, 27.9% of approach shots at TPC Sawgrass came from over 200 yards, which is above the Tour average of 22,9%. Historically, the proximity buckets that fall above Tour average at TPC Sawgrass are 50-100 yards, 100-125 yards, 125-150 yards, and sometimes 200 yards-plus. Still, nothing is really jumping off the page to me here, and TPC Sawgrass features one of the most even distributions of approach shots that you will see on the PGA Tour. It’s a golf course that asks you to do a little bit of everything on approach, which is why I’m not weighing any specific approach buckets in my model, and instead will turn my attention to overall approach play on shorter courses and attempt to identify those who gain the most strokes on approach on shorter golf courses. This will help me weed out the players that are doing the heavy lifting with their long irons are courses like Bay Hill and Torrey Pines. The best overall iron players on shorter golf courses are Russell Henley, Corey Conners, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Shane Lowry, Luke List, Webb Simpson, Adam Svensson, Russell Knox, and Patrick Cantlay. 

• Around the Green

• • Last year, 11.7% of strokes gained around the green at TPC Sawgrass came via around the green, which is well below the Tour average of 14.5%. That number does rise to 14.2% historically, which is still below Tour average, but not significantly so.
  • Last year, TPC Sawgrass ranked 16th out of 38 courses in around the green difficulty, but it usually ranks harder than that. Between 2016 and 2021, it ranked inside the top seven in around the green difficulty.
  • Last year, TPC Sawgrass ranked 16th out of 38 courses in around the green difficulty from the fairway, 10th out of 38 courses in around the green difficulty from the rough, and 26th out of 38 courses in around the green difficulty from the bunkers. These were all anomalies on various levels, as each of the last eight years, TPC Sawgrass has ranked inside the top10 in around the green difficulty from the fairway. Chipping off tight lies on Bermuda is simply not easy any way you slice it. Each of the last eight years, TPC Sawgrass has ranked inside the top 12 in around the green difficulty from the rough, and each of the last eight years, the Dye design has ranked inside the top 12 in around the green difficulty from the bunkers. In general, players that miss the green are going to be faced with a fairly tough recovery, whether they are in the short grass, grass bunkers, or sand bunkers. The course features 84 sand bunkers and some challenging grass bunkers as well. As is often the case on Bermuda courses, I am choosing to specifically weed out the players that raise their baseline chipping off Bermuda. The players who have gained the most strokes around the green on Bermuda-grass course over the last year and a half have been Matt Kuchar, Danny Willett, Justin Thomas, Tommy Fleetwood, Chris Kirk, Scott Piercy, Si Woo Kim, Mackenzie Hughes, Byeong-Hun An, and Seamus Power. 
  • I’ve already alluded to the 84 bunkers at the Dye design, and identifying elite bunker players will also be essential this week. The players in this field with the highest sand save percentage over the past year have been Matt Kuchar, Shane Lowry, Andrew Putnam, SH Kim, Robby Shelton, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas, Byeong-Hun An, David Lingmerth, and Lee Hodges. 

• Putting
  • Last year, 36.3% of strokes gained at TPC Sawgrass came via putting, which is a touch above the Tour average of 35.6%, but over a larger sample size, that number falls to 31.8%, which is well below the Tour average. Thus, TPC Sawgrass is a ball-striker’s course through and through and is generally not a tournament won by a sub-standard tee-to-green player who simply gets scorching hot with their flatstick.
  • Last year, TPC Sawgrass ranked 14th out of 38 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty, the easiest it has ranked in this category since 2017. It generally ranks inside the top 10 in putting difficulty every year.
  • The greens at the Pete Dye design measure 5,500 square feet on average, and they feature the same Poa Trivialis/Velvet Bent-grass overseed that we see at Innisbrook, TPC Scottsdale, and PGA West. They are not true Bermuda-grass, so I will not be looking at pure Bermuda-grass putting this week.
  • When the PGA Tour re-designed the course in 2017, they began over-seeding, and the tournament moving to March also affected the decision. You’ll notice if you look closely, the greens almost look a bit more like a shiny Bent-grass. The putting surfaces are far less granular and more consistent. I don’t believe you need to be looking for any Bermuda specialists this week, and if anything, I would argue that greens like these have a tendency to neutralize bad putters. Looking at some of the players who have recently found success here: Justin Thomas, Lee Westwood, Corey Conners, Paul Casey, Sergio Garcia, Keegan Bradley — none stick out as elite putters. Running through the leaderboards at tournaments like the WM Phoenix Open and Valspar, it’s a lot of the same, as these greens incredibly pure. If you are able to get the ball started on the right line, you are going to love the result. Not to mention the fact that players do not need to account for grain that they normally would have to on other Florida courses. If you still want to look at Bermuda putting, be my guest, but I did feel it was important to note the distinction.
  • Last year, TPC Sawgrass ranked fifth out of 38 courses in putting difficulty inside five feet, 17th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty, and 12th out of 38 courses in putting greater than 15 feet. The Dye design consistently ranks above average every single year in putting difficulty inside 15 feet. As previously alluded to, that has little to do with the surface of the greens, as the over-seed allows them to run really smooth, but Sawgrass actually features some of Pete Dye’s most provocative greens in terms of subtlety of their contouring. While this is a ball-striking course through and through, putting is still always part of the equation, and I separated out the best putters on over-seeded Bermuda greens. The best putters in this field on over-seeded Bermuda greens are Sam Burns, Tyrrell Hatton, Matt Kuchar, Kevin Kisner, Andrew Putnam, Sepp Straka, Billy Horschel, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, and Jon Rahm. 

• Scoring Stats 
  • Last year, TPC Sawgrass ranked first out of 38 courses in average penalty strokes per round, and each of the last eight years, the iconic Dye venue has ranked inside the top-six in this category. Last year, it also ranked third out of 38 courses in re-loads per round, which measures the number of shots per round re-hit from the same location after a penalty stroke, so just like the Honda Classic, this is a really solid week to be looking at stats such as bogey avoidance and scrambling.
  • Players are inevitably going to hit the ball in the water here, so I want to identify those who are the best at grinding to make par when they get derailed. Si Woo Kim and Jason Day both ranked first in scrambling the years that they won. Martin Kaymer ranked fourth in scrambling the year that he won. Tiger ranked sixth in scrambling the year that he won, K.J. Choi ranked seventh en route to victory, and Tim Clark ranked second in his championship week. The best scramblers in this field are Andrew Putnam, Max Homa, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Hideki Matsuyama, Mackenzie Hughes, Matt Kuchar, Patrick Cantlay, Aaron Wise, Maverick McNealy, and Billy Horschel.
  • Most weeks that we have par 72s, I will be looking pretty closely at par five scoring. Every single par five at TPC Sawgrass features over a 30% birdie rate, and they also all feature over an 8% bogey rate, which is quite rare. Relative to par fours and par threes, top-10 finishers have gained far more strokes to the field per round on the par fives, as these are the holes that create the most separation and variance. I don’t believe there is as much of a stark contrast as what we saw last week at Bay Hill, where players that do not take advantage of the par fives are absolutely dead on arrival, just because there are other holes at Sawgrass that still present scoring opportunities. Still par-five scoring has been a fairly obvious point of correlation with success year in and year out at TPC Sawgrass. The best par five scorers in this field are Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im, Shane Lowry, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Garrick Higgo, Matt Fitzpatrick, Justin Thomas, and Taylor Montgomery. 
  • Not that TPC Sawgrass is easy by any means, but there are enough scoring opportunities where I will be looking at opportunities gained this week, which measures the amount of birdie looks that players are giving themselves per round. This can also help me fill some gaps in wedge play, as players that rate out highly in opportunities gained are almost always elite wedge players and elite par five scorers. The players that generate the most birdie looks for themselves inside 15 feet are Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Kurt Kitayama, Tony Finau, Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Cameron Davis, Davis Riley, and Will Zalatoris. 

• Comp Course/Course History 
  • In terms of course history, TPC Sawgrass is an interesting one. It actually ranks seventh out of the regular 38 courses on the PGA Tour in terms of correlation between course history and success. Sawgrass actually reminds me a lot of Riviera in the sense that yes, there are certain players that always seem to perform well here, but it’s no means the type of course where you can show up in bad form and expect to just immediately perform simply because you’ve found success here in the past. Xander Schauffele finished runner-up in his debut performance here and proceeded to miss his next three cuts. Francesco Molinari has played here eight times and has four top-10s and four missed cuts. Patrick Cantlay has two top-25s, but also three missed cuts. Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott, Justin Thomas, and Hideki Matsuyama have been probably been the most consistent here over time, but this is a week where you should expect to see elite players miss the cut. It happens at this course every single year. There is certainly enough nuance and strategy to the Pete Dye design that I have very minimal interest in players that have never played this course before. I mentioned that Xander finished runner-up in his debut appearance, but outside of that, the list of players who have contended on their debut performance is short, to say the least.
  • On the other hand, we have seen many instances of players with poor course history winning. Martin Kaymer struggled here mightily before winning. Tim Clark had failed to finish inside the top-30 before winning here, and KJ Choi and Matt Kuchar both had zero prior top-10s before claiming victory. Essentially, I’m looking for at least some history here. I don’t need my players to have dominated here before, but I do need them to have at least be somewhat familiar with the course. The best players in this field at TPC Sawgrass have been Justin Thomas, Adam Scott, Si Woo Kim, Tommy Fleetwood, Keegan Bradley, Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day, Francesco Molinari, Corey Conners, and Justin Rose. 
  • One thing I will also mention is that I have zero interest in this “Pete Dye filter” people seem to be obsessed with. The idea of grouping TPC Sawgrass in with driver-heavy, long iron-intensive 7,700-yard courses such as Whistling Straits and Kiawah Island — tracks that are both completely antithetical to the task at hand at TPC Sawgrass –makes little to no sense to me,
  • The course that actually checked the most boxes for me in terms of relative skill-set was Sedgefield, host of the Wyndham Championship, While Sedgefield is less tree-lined, both are completely positional in nature, and my model is nearly identical at both tracks. Unsurprisingly, players such as Davis Love, Si Woo Kim, Sergio Garcia, Webb Simpson, Justin Rose, and Kevin Kisner have found success at both tracks. The best players in this field at Sedgefield have been Webb Simpson, Kevin Kisner, Sungjae Im, Billy Horschel, Tom Kim, Russell Henley, Si Woo Kim, Hideki Matsuyama, Denny McCarthy and Viktor Hovland.
  • The Stadium Course at PGA West, part of the rotation for the American Express, was designed by Pete Dye to be the West Coast version of TPC Sawgrass, and it even features similar agronomy. It should not come as a surprise that Si Woo Kim has won at both tracks. The best players in this field at PGA West have been Si Woo Kim, Adam Hadwin, Sam Burns, Sungjae Im, Patrick Cantlay, Andrew Putnam, Tony Finau, Brian Harman, Alex Smalley, and Garrick Higgo. 
  • Finally, Harbour Town is the ultimate Pete Dye positional track. It’s far more claustrophobic than TPC Sawgrass and takes driver out of your hands even more, but both tracks still feature many of the same tricks, and it should not come as a surprise that Webb Simpson, Matt Kuchar, Jason Day, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Tommy Fleetwood have found success at both tracks. The best players in this field at Harbour Town are Patrick Cantlay, Webb Simpson, Matt Kuchar, J.T. Poston, Shane Lowry, Jerry Kelly, Jordan Spieth, Cameron Davis, Alex Noren, and Jason Day.

Model 

• Off the Tee (14%)
  • Strokes Gained Off the Tee: Short Courses (7%)
  • Good Drive Percentage: Short Courses (7%)
• Approach (28%)
  • Strokes Gained Approach (18%)
  • Strokes Gained Approach: Short Courses (10%)
• Around the Green (12%)
  • Strokes Gained Around the Green: Bermuda-grass Courses (7%)
  • Sand Save Percentage (7%)
• Putting (10%)
  • Strokes Gained Putting: Over-seeded Bermuda-grass Courses (10%)
• Scoring Stats (19%)
  • Par 5 Scoring (5%)
  • Scrambling (7%)
  • Opportunities Gained (7%)
• Comp Course/Course History (17%)
  • TPC Sawgrass (8%)
  • Sedgefield (3%)
  • PGA West Stadium Course (3%)
  • Harbour Town (3%)

Model Top 20 

1. Jon Rahm
2. Shane Lowry
3. Tony Finau
4. Sungjae Im
5. Scottie Scheffler
6. Xander Schauffele
7. Rory McIlroy
8. Si Woo Kim
9. Justin Thomas
10. Hideki Matsuyama
11. Chris Kirk
12. Adam Hadwin
13. Ben Griffin
14. Tom Kim
15. Patrick Cantlay
16. Will Zalatoris
17. Tom Hoge
18. Brian Harman
19. Corey Conners
20. Justin Rose