By Andy Lack

2023 Tour Championship Course Breakdown: East Lake  

The Basics 

• Course: East Lake Golf Club
• Location: Atlanta, Georgia
• Designer: Donald Ross (1913) with Rees Jones re-design in 2008 and 2016
• Length: Par 70; measuring 7,348 yards
• Hazards: Water comes into play on four holes
• Fairways: Meyer Zoysia-grass, measuring 28 yards wide on average
• Rough: Tifway Bermuda-grass 2’5”
• Greens: 6,090 square feet on average, featuring MiniVerde UltraDwarf Bermuda-grass, running 12.5 on the stimp.

 

We’ve made it! The Tour Championship is the final event of the PGA Tour season and FedEx Cup playoffs. Since it’s not the most straightforward event on the schedule, let’s run through what we can expect this week before we dive into East Lake. Starting in 2007, the TOUR Championship became the final event of the four tournament FedEx Cup playoffs, with eligibility determined by FedEx Cup points accumulated throughout the season. From 2019 onward, the FedEx Cup was reduced to three events, and the TOUR Championship moved from mid September to late August. Since 2004, East Lake has been the event’s permanent home.

The season finale has undergone a number of structural changes through the years. Beginning in 2009, the awarding of points assured that if any of the top-five in the FedEx Cup entering the week won the event, they would also win the FedEx Cup. Therefore it remained possible for one player to win the TOUR Championship, and another player to win the FedEx Cup. For example, in 2018, Tiger Woods won the Tour Championship but finished second in the FedEx Cup. After realizing that this was a somewhat disjointed way of crowning a season champion, the PGA Tour decided to create an even more obtuse structure! Beginning in 2019, the tournament adopted a new format in order to ensure that the winner would also be the FedEx Cup champion. The player with  the most FedEx Cup points heading into this week starts at 10-under par. The player with the second most points starts at 8-under par. The third starts at 7-under par, and so on down to fifth at 5-under par. Players ranked six through 10 begin at four under. 11 through 15 at 3-under, and so on all the way down to numbers 26-30, who begin at even par. We can litigate the utter silliness of having the PGA Tour season end with a net and gross championship, but that’s for a different day. Let’s talk more about the venue.

East Lake has undergone a number of changes throughout the years. The Donald Ross original received a Rees Jones renovation in 2008 that included a change from Bent-grass to Bermuda. In 2016, Rees came in again and added another 78 yards to the course with new tee boxes on both the 16th and 17th holes. The nines were also reversed, with the round finishing with a 590 yard par five rather than the former par three closer.

Don’t get it twisted, East Lake is far more of a Rees Jones course than it is a Donald Ross course. Ross’ presence is still felt on the greens, but even Sedgefield’s complexes feature more nuance. It’s hard to believe for a Ross course, but East Lake features some of the most straightforward greens on Tour. The Jones imprint of added length, pinched fairways, and over bunkering is difficult to ignore. Jones has also done re-design work at Aronomink, Baltusrol, Bellerive, Bethpage Black, Congressional, Cog Hill, Hazeltine, Atlanta Athletic Club, Medinah No. 3, and Torrey Pines. All these courses feature a similar character. All are execution courses where very little strategy is involved.

In the past, East Lake has played as one of the more challenging courses on the PGA Tour. Yet last year, it ranked 24th out of 38 courses in difficulty in softer conditions. It always features some of the longest and most difficult par threes on the PGA Tour. All four of the par threes measure over 197 yards and play to a scoring average over par. They play as the second longest set of par threes on the PGA Tour.

The par fours are no cakewalk either. Only two par fours measure under 420 yards, the third and 12th, and neither of them are remotely drivable. On the other hand, eight par fours measure between 440 and 520 yards, and all of them play to a scoring average over 3.9. The high amount of longer par threes and longer par fours explain why such a large plurality of approach shots at East Lake come from over 175 yards. It’s absolutely essential to score on the two par fives, which are really the only true birdie opportunities on the entire course. The two par fives play as the two easiest holes on the course, and the sixth is essentially a par four and a half, playing to a stroke average of just 4.41. Last year, they played as the second easiest set of par fives on Tour.

East Lake is a death by 1,000 paper cuts course. It is by no means easy, but I would not spend much time comparing it to other challenging Bermuda courses such as TPC Southwind or PGA National where the entire character of those courses is water. East Lake ranked 32nd out of 38 courses in penalty strokes per round, while TPC Southwind and PGA National both ranked inside the top-five. East Lake has more in common with a course like Innisbrook, another Bermuda course with harder than average scoring conditions that is not characterized by its amount of water. Only one hole at East Lake features a double bogey rate over five percent, but 16 holes feature a bogey rate above 10%. This partially explains the reason why the players with starting strokes have been able to hang on so easily, as East Lake is not a course that produces a great deal of scoring variance. This is part of the reason that East Lake is a terrible golf course to host this event. We will see a lot of pars this week, some birdies, and some bogeys. Yet what we will not see are implosions or a great deal of leaderboard movement. We did see a lot more players go out and shoot 63s and 64s last year, and we even saw a 62 from Max Homa, so maybe wetter conditions will continue to trend towards producing a greater range of outcomes. Even if East Lake continues to trend closer towards a birdie-fest, it remains an incredibly banal golf course for a season ending championship. Let’s dive into the stats.

 

Stats 

• Off the Tee 
  • Last year, 14.1% of strokes gained at East Lake came off the tee, which slightly below the Tour average of 15.3%, but the event average comes up to 15.4%.
  • Last year, East Lake ranked 22nd out of 38 courses in strokes gained off the tee difficulty, and it usually ranks right around middle of the pack in strokes gained off the tee difficulty.
  • Driving accuracy at East Lake last year was 58%, which is below the Tour average of 60%, and it featured the 11th most difficult fairways to hit on Tour. Measuring just 24 yards wide on average, East Lake actually features the most narrow fairways on the entire PGA Tour. Driving distance however is 298.8, a full seven yards above Tour average, as warmer climates are more conducive to distance. The incredibly narrow fairways however do not deter plays from hitting driver often.
  • East Lake ranked ninth out of 38 courses in missed fairway penalty, and each of the last eight years, it has ranked inside the top-10 in missed fairway penalty. The Ross design ranked sixth out of 38 courses in rough penalty.
  • Here’s a quote from former champion, Dustin Johnson, “The rough here is always brutal, and you never get a good lie ever. You have to hit the fairway, and then once you do hit the fairway, you’ve got to hit a perfect iron shot if you want to get it on the green. The only way to control the golf ball coming into the greens is hitting out of the fairway. That’s the only thing I need to do a little better tomorrow. It wasn’t like I was way off or anything. Just hit quite a few drivers in the rough, which is no good around here.”
  • Rory McIlroy echoed a similar sentiment, “You don’t hit fairways, and with this Bermuda rough, you have no control over your golf ball. You’re sort of guessing whether it’s going to fly or whether it’s going to come out soft. When you start to get yourself out of position, especially they’ve let this Bermuda rough just get up a little bit, and it just takes all control out of your hands with your second shot.”
  • Tiger Woods, “In general, this is a ball-striker’s golf course. I mean, you’ve got to hit your golf ball well. You’ve got to drive it well, place your irons correctly. If you drive the ball in the rough, you know you can’t get the ball close. The Bermuda rough, you just can’t control. It puts a premium on driving.”
  • Brandt Snedeker, “Most important element here is hitting the fairways. If you don’t hit the fairways here, you can’t be aggressive. You can’t be aggressive if you put the ball in bad spots and make bogeys.”
  • Jim Furyk, “A lot of the defense of this golf course really is the Bermuda rough. You have to hit fairways. Some of them are very thin and very difficult to hit.“
  • When nearly every single one of the former champions say the same thing, it’s prudent to take notice. I have preached this often in my articles, but driving accuracy on Bermuda courses is far more important than driving accuracy on courses with Blue-grass rough. Bermuda rough is far more unpredictable, and far more difficult to control spin out of, which is why we very rarely ever see players attempt to bomb and gauge courses such as East Lake or Sedgefield. There is a legitimate premium on hitting the fairway here. 11 of the last 15 winners have ranked top-10 in fairways hit. The last 13 winners have all ranked inside the top-nine in strokes gained off the tee as well.
  • Last year, the top-11 players on the leaderboard all gained to the field in driving accuracy percentage. It’s certainly possible to play well here without hitting every single fairway. Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau, and Dustin Johnson all finished highly in 2021 losing in driving accuracy percentage to the field. With that being said, they all putted extremely well and were still able to hit greens from the rough, a challenging task at East Lake. The three players that finished ahead of them, Patrick Cantlay, Jon Rahm, and Kevin Na, all ranked top-10 in driving accuracy.
  • 2020 told a similar story. Players that did not hit a ton of fairways were still able to find success, but it required elite approach play and putting. I understand that East Lake features the most narrow fairways on Tour and sticky Bermuda rough, but this tournament often still seems to come down to iron play. Don’t get me wrong, I will still be overweight on off the tee metrics this week. I don’t believe that East Lake is a pure second shot golf course, as there is undeniably a huge advantage in playing from the fairway, and a severe penalty for wayward driving. Yet we’ve still seen players such as Dustin Johnson rank 27th out of 38 players in 2020 and claim victory. Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, and Jon Rahm all finished top-five that year losing to the field in driving accuracy, but all of them possessed above average distance. The reason for this is that even on courses with Bermuda rough, longer players such as Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, and Jon Rahm still possess a distinct advantage as players who are short and wayward are so far behind the eight ball. For this reason, I want to identify players that were able to raise their baseline on courses with narrow fairways. The best players off the tee in this field on courses with narrow fairways have been Patrick Cantlay, Jon Rahm, Corey Conners, Sungjae Im, Viktor Hovland, Rory McIlroy, Si Woo Kim, Matt Fitzpatrick, Scottie Scheffler, and Emiliano Grillo. 

 

• Approach 
  • Last year, 39.8% of strokes gained at East Lake came on approach, which is healthily above the Tour average of 34.7%. The event average falls closer to Tour average at 34.9%.
  • Last year, East Lake ranked 36th out of 38 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty, and it usually ranks easier than Tour average in approach difficulty. Last year played particularly easy however.
  • East Lake ranked 34th out of 38 courses in approach difficulty from less than 150 yards and 36th out of 38 courses in approach difficulty from greater than 150 yards. Even the greens in regulation percentage, which often has fallen below Tour average, was all the way up to 69.3%, well above the average last year of 65.9%.
  • East Lake is still a ball-striker’s course through and through, but the degree of difficulty on approach is never overly challenging, and the softness of the golf course last year yielded more of an emphasis on putting than we have seen in years past.
  • 30.3% of approach shots at East Lake last year came from over 200 yards, which is comfortably above Tour average. Between the four long par fours, two reachable par fives, and at least three par fours that will feature a long iron approach, it’s possible that players will be approaching these greens with a long iron close to 50% of the time. The best long iron players in the field this season have been Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Tom Kim, Viktor Hovland, Keegan Bradley, Tony Finau, Taylor Moore, Matt Fitzpatrick, Scottie Scheffler, and Sungjae Im. 
  • There have actually been less approach shots at East Lake between 150 and 200 yards than Tour average, but more approach shots from 100 to 150 yards than Tour average. Essentially, the five par fours under 450 yards should produce wedge shots, but the three long par fours, two par fives, and four par threes will primarily produce mid to long iron shots. I will still mainly be looking at long iron play as the most crucial key to success here with short iron play, specifically from 125-150 yards as a secondary marker. The best players from this range in this field have been Tom Kim, Keegan Bradley, Scottie Scheffler, Russell Henley, Jon Rahm, Viktor Hovland, Max Homa, Collin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth, and Rickie Fowler. 
  • At the end of the day, while placement off the tee is important, the second shot is still crucial at East Lake. In 2019, each of the top-six players gained over three strokes on approach. In 2021, five of the top-six on the leaderboard gained over three strokes on approach, and in 2022, eight of the top-10, and 12 of the top-15 gained on approach.

 

• Around the Green 
  • Last year, 7.5% of strokes gained at East Lake came around the green, which is well below the Tour average of 14.5%, but the event average falls closer to 13.4%.
  • Last year, East Lake ranked 34th out of 38 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty, and historically, it ranks as one of the easier courses on Tour around the greens.
  • Last year, East Lake ranked 38th out of 38 courses in around the green difficulty from the fairway. The ball really sits up on Zoysia-grass. It’s almost like chipping off a mat. It also ranks 26th out of 38 courses in around the green difficulty from the rough, and 29th out of 38 courses in around the green difficulty from the bunkers.
  • The bunkers are not overly challenging at East Lake, and players would still often rather be in the sand here than the Bermuda rough.
  • Greens in regulation percentage has often been low enough at this course where players have had to inevitably rely on their short game, yet over the last few years, the course has played increasingly easier and featured a higher greens in regulation percentage. I was not able to find much of a correlation between the importance of short game and success at East Lake, especially the last couple of years. Four out of the top-five players on the leaderboard last year lost strokes around the green!

 

• Putting 
  • Last year, 38.6% of strokes gained at East Lake came via the flat-stick, which is well above the Tour average of 35.5%. The event average still comes in at 36.3%
  • Last year, East Lake ranked 38th out of 38 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty, and historically, it has ranked as one of the easiest putting courses on the entire PGA Tour.
  • Last year, East Lake ranked as the easiest putting course on Tour inside five feet, the third easiest course on Tour from five to fifteen feet, and the seventh easiest course from 15 feet plus. These are some of the absolute easiest greens to putt on the PGA Tour, and they run incredibly pure. This comes as a surprise given the challenge we usually see on Ross greens.
  • Although the degree of difficulty putting is incredibly low at East Lake, with a rising greens in regulation percentage the last few years and easier scoring conditions, this is not the pure tee to green test that we have seen in firmer conditions. I would not get overly caught up in anything putting related, but if a player significantly raises their baseline on Bermuda, that should be viewed as a bonus. The best Bermuda putters in this field over the last two years have been Sam Burns, Taylor Moore, Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, Adam Schenk, Wyndham Clark, Max Homa, Jon Rahm, and Jason Day. 

 

• Scoring Stats 
  • As I have also spoken about before, we spend too much time getting caught up in how players perform on certain green types and not enough time on how they perform out of different rough types. There are certain players that are always going to be more comfortable on courses with Bermuda rough, and there are also certain players that really seem to consistently struggle out of Bermuda rough. The best tee to green players on courses with Bermuda rough have been Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa, Tyrrell Hatton, Jon Rahm, Si Woo Kim, and Sungjae Im. 
  • I have really began to switch my stance on East Lake as a course that is more synonymous with difficult scoring conditions vs. one where we want to identify players who can score. We saw 17 rounds last year of 65 or better at East Lake. It is not the difficult track that we have seen in the past. Even if there is a bit of scoring regression next season, I was still interested in the fact that there are far more approach shots from 100-150 yards than I had initially thought. That leads me back to identifying players that consistently give themselves the most birdie looks per round, which I continue to believe is the most predictive ancillary stat on the PGA Tour. The leaders in this field in opportunities gained (birdie chances generated per round inside 15 feet) are Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, Corey Conners, Jon Rahm, Lucas Glover, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, and Si Woo Kim. 

 

• Comp Courses/Course History 
  • Outside of our Xander Schauffeles and Rory McIlroys, there hasn’t been some massive correlation between course history and success at East Lake (relatively speaking in comparison to other PGA Tour courses.) The Ross design is certainly the type of course that I would imagine could cause players some trouble on their first viewing, but the predictiveness of its course history has fallen right in the middle of the pack when stacked up against other Tour courses. As discussed in the prior category, there is virtually zero nuances to these green complexes, and everything is pretty much all out in front of you from a tee to green standpoint. Still, the best players in this field at East Lake have been Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Russell Henley, Max Homa, Jon Rahm, Jason Day, Tyrrell Hatton, Tony Finau, Scottie Scheffler, and Viktor Hovland. 
  • Both East Lake and Sedgefield, host of the Wyndham Championship, are both Donald Ross designs that place a premium on driving accuracy and feature similar agronomy and scoring conditions. East Lake is certainly harder than Sedgefield and features more long iron approach shots, but the gap has gotten closer between the two (in terms of scoring average) over the last two years. Players such as Henrik Stenson, Billy Horschel, and Brant Sneaker, amongst others, have experienced loads of success at both tracks. The best players in this field at Sedgefield have been Sungjae Im, Russell Henley, Si Woo Kim, Tom Kim, Sam Burns, Viktor Hovland, Lucas Glover, Taylor Moore, Brian Harman, and Tyrrell Hatton. 
  • I’ve already alluded to Innisbrook as another challenging Bermuda track that is not defined by avoiding water hazards. Both are narrow courses that place a premium on hitting the fairway and feature a large plurality of approach shots from over 175 yards. The best players in this field at Innisbrook have been Sam Burns, Tommy Fleetwood, Jordan Spieth, Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland, Sungjae Im, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Taylor Moore, and Corey Conners. 

Model 

• Off the Tee (20%)
  • Recent Strokes Gained Off the Tee (6%)
  • Driving Accuracy Percentage (8%)
  • Strokes Gained Off the Tee: Narrow Fairways (6%)
• Approach (34%)
  • Recent Strokes Gained Approach (20%)
  • Season Proximity 125-150 yards (6%)
  • Season Proximity 200 yards plus (8%)
• Around the Green (5%)
  • Strokes Gained Around the Green: Bermuda Courses (5%)
• Putting (10%)
  • Strokes Gained Putting: Bermuda Courses (10%)
• Scoring Stats (17%)
  • Strokes Gained Tee to Green: Bermuda Courses (10%)
• Comp Courses/Course History (14%)
  • East Lake (7%)
  • Innisbrook (4%)
  • Sedgefield (3%)

 

Full Model Rankings 

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Jon Rahm
3. Viktor Hovland
4. Patrick Cantlay
5. Rory McIlroy
6. Xander Schauffele
7. Russell Henley
8. Lucas Glover
9. Tommy Fleetwood
10. Collin Morikawa
11. Tony Finau
12. Tom Kim
13. Tyrrell Hatton
14. Si Woo Kim
15. Max Homa
16. Corey Conners
17. Sungjae Im
18. Rickie Fowler
19. Jordan Spieth
20. Wyndham Clark
21. Adam Schenk
22. Keegan Bradley
23. Matt Fitzpatrick
24. Brian Harman
25. Taylor Moore
26. Emiliano Grillo
27. Sepp Straka
28. Sam Burns
29. Nick Taylor
30. Jason Day