By RickRunGood

We need to hit the ground running because this event starts on Wednesday and concludes on Saturday! Don’t wait to get those lineups, OAD selections and wagers entered because you’ll miss out.

Another course rotation this week, but only two in play. The North and South Courses at Torrey Pines will be played once by each golfer in the field over the first two rounds, then a 36-hole cut will be made and all golfers will head to the South Course for the final two rounds.

I’ll be on-site this week – probably Wednesday and Saturday if you want to say hello!

South Course: 73.609 (+1.361)
North Course: 71.455 (-0.545)

Let’s start with the North Course, which has been beefed up over the years. This course used to be significantly easier than it plays today but a 2016 redesign has closed the gap. It was a savvy little project from Tom Weiskopf who tried to make it more difficult for professionals but still friendly to the tens of thousands of amateurs who play this course every year. One example includes increasing the green sizes about 1,500 square feet which helps recreational players find the putting surface more frequently. It also creates new and more pinnable locations for the professionals as well.

There is a three hole stretch, dubbed “The Undertow”, that plays as one of the more difficult stretches of golf on the PGA TOUR. Hole 2, 3 and 4 played as three of the four most difficult holes in 2023 to a total of +0.689 over par in aggregate.

With “chilly” morning temperatures often lurking in La Jolla, it’s not a particularly friendly way to start a round and you’d much prefer to tackle this stretch after starting on no. 10. 

The plan is to keep the rough uniform on both courses – starting the week at 3.5”. With fairways between 24-28 yards wide, it’s important to find the short-grass and often becomes more important as the week goes on and the grounds crew keeps the mowers in the shed.

The South Course also sports long rough and skinny fairways but tacks on another 500 yards to stretch the course to 7,765 yards.

Off-the-tee, there are definitely some “Bryson at Winged Foot” vibes where distance is important and finding the fairway is very valuable. But if no one can find the fairway then the longest guys are going to win – separating themselves with both distance and the ability to extract the ball from thick rough. Winged Foot was an extreme version of this, but the South Course provides a few flashbacks to 2020.

Looking at the leaders from last year does have its flaws and it’s not something I’d recommend every week but I do think there’s a bit of value in examining the 2023 driving numbers.

Of the top golfers from last year, only (2) finished the week inside the Top 20 for driving distance but (8) finished the week inside the Top 20 of driving accuracy. Jon Rahm was the only one who did both.

Statistically, the South Course rewards long drivers AND accuracy. It has the second biggest “Long Drive Reward” on the TOUR Schedule, providing a 0.20 stroke boost every time you hit a drive longer than the average on that hole. From a value standpoint, missing the fairway is not as big of a penalty but still a problem. You lose 0.13 strokes every time you play from the rough which is the 5th largest Missed Fairway Penalty.

Yes, distance is valuable but hitting the fairway allows you to hit the green in regulation. The GIR rate hovers around 58% at the South Course so being able to beat the field in that category will 1) give you more birdie looks (obviously) and 2) keep you from having to tackle the tricky greenside locations for missing the green.

Getting up-and-down is not a small feat at the South Course where you combine thick rough, requiring full commitment, on short shots that can make even the best players weak in the knees. If you are able to extract yourself from those locations, you’re often left with 5’-8’ for par. These slick poa greens are punishing from those locations often to no fault of the actual golfer.

Patrick Reed was able to beat Torrey Pines differently than most. His elite short-game allowed him to routinely get up and down for par and find victory – but that was a statistical outlier.

As you can imagine, with a course playing over 7,600 yards at sea level, there are a lot of long approaches. Shots from 200+ occur over 11% of the time, shots from 175-200 occur 16.8% of the time and shots from 150-175 occur 24% of the time. All of those are more frequent than the TOUR average.

Let’s run an approach model that proportionately rewards those buckets. That means 47/100 weights on 150-175, 32/100  weights on 175-200, and 21/100 weights on 200+. The Top 10 golfers using those parameters only:

When you finally reach the green, there is no reprieve. The West Coast Poa will make you look like a fool, combined with fast greens and deceptive breaks – it’s hard to get the ball in the cup.

The average make% of putts from 4’-8’ on TOUR is 72% – at the South Course it’s 67%.
The average make% of putts from 9’-15’ on TOUR is 33% – at the South Course it’s 29%.

The 4’8’ make rate is the second lowest on TOUR while the 9’-15’ make rate is the lowest on TOUR. So yeah – good luck.

You’ll hear plenty of conversation this week about the poa “blooming” throughout the day, which I can tell you from experience is very annoying and difficult. It makes putts even more unpredictable as the day goes on.

You add all this up and you’ll find that Torrey Pines is a stern test for the best players in the world. It’ll ask you to be long off-the-tee with a bit of accuracy. It’ll ask you to hit your long irons better than the field, with GIR at a major premium. If you miss the green, you’ll need to have an elite short-game. You’ll need to have some serious putting skills and/or experience on West Coast poa. Add it all up and you’ll have a great week.