By Andy Lack

The 2023 FedEx St. Jude’s Championship Final Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership 

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. Already this season, the Houston Open featured a 2.5 stroke wave advantage! As soon as we flipped the calendar to January, weather played a massive role in the Sony Open as well. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

With just a 70 man, there are no clear “waves,” or staggered tee times. With that being said, avoiding those will be playing on Friday afternoon, which should see the most wind and firmest conditions, seems like a sensible move if looking for a tie-breaker.

Core Four

• Tommy Fleetwood, $9,100 (Projected ownership: 16.0%): Tommy Fleetwood was the last man off my outright card this week, and I feel a lot better about singing his praises from a DraftKings standpoint. I gave Jordan Spieth the nod ahead of him in the betting market, and while I have a little more faith in the three-time major winner being the last man standing on Sunday, Fleetwood feels like a much safer bet to deliver us a top-10 finish. Outside of an image from him visiting Butch Harman in Las Vegas (I’m only human and a sucker for that stuff), we haven’t seen Tommy Lad since his anemic weekend effort at Hoylake. It was still another rock-solid top-10 for the oft-Bridesmaid, and he still gained strokes across the board, including over two strokes off the tee and nearly four on approach. The top-10 at the Open was Fleetwood’s sixth top-10 of the season, and his fourth in his last five starts. The Englishman has not been shy to comment on how much he actually wants to win on the PGA Tour, and it remains a massive gaping hole in a resume that includes some of the best major championship rounds of all time. The list of players that have shot multiple rounds of 63 or lower in majors is limited to Greg Norman, Vijay Singh, Brooks Koepka, and Tommy Fleetwood. He has everything it takes to succeed at this level, and even if he falls short once again this week, we don’t need him to win at this price. One of the most proper ball-strikers in this field, Fleetwood also excels on Bermuda grass greens. Over the last two years, Matt Kuchar is the only player in this field that has been better than Fleetwood on and around Bermuda-grass putting surfaces. I do have serious concerns about whether he can close the door on Sunday, but we said the same thing about Abraham Ancer, who similarly found his way to the top of the leaderboard in Memphis. Fleetwood already has a fourth-place finish at this event, and multiple top-fives at other more challenging, water-logged, firmer Bermuda tracks such as Innisbrook and PGA National. Everything is aligning this week for one of my all-time favorite lovable losers, which is sure to only end in pain.

• Hideki Matsuyama, $8,400 (Projected ownership: 10.4%): I’m not going to lie, Hideki Matsuyama disappointed the heck out of me last week. He was not in my core four last week, but I still played him, and even placed a regrettable wager on him at 20/1. It’s important to never hold grudges in DraftKings however, and I’m ready to get hurt once again by the former Masters champion. At least there is less risk involved, as Hideki is $2,200 cheaper and coming in at appetizingly low ownership. I’ll never carry water for a player missing the cut at the Wyndham Championship by seven strokes, but it is worth noting that he still hit the ball great and lost a whopping 8.2 strokes short game and putting. Even more valuable context is that a lot of that came on one hole where he left multiple in the bunker. On paper, this should be the perfect bounce back spot. Hideki remains a top-five middle to short iron player in this field, and he is a great total driver of the ball as well. His ranking of second in this field in opportunities gained is indicative of a player that is under-performing compared to how he should be scoring, and this is the type of golf course where he can easily contend with an average putting performance. Last time Hideki traversed the grounds at TPC Southwind, he gained over 10 strokes ball-striking en route to a runner-up finish where he lost in a playoff. I remain high on the eight-time PGA Tour winner’s long-term prospects, and this is the ideal venue for him to reassert himself as the elite player that he is. This is an excellent opportunity to take an advantage of an over-reaction to a one hole outlier performance, and I’m ready to go down swinging one more time.

• Cameron Young, $8,200 (Projected ownership 11.4%): When I made my projections on Sunday night, I had Cameron Young as a $9K golfer, so you can imagine my glee to catch him at this price and ownership. Cameron Young should be a lock for the Ryder Cup team. He’s contended in four of the last eight majors, which feels increasingly, this year more than ever, as the only 16 rounds of golf per year that truly matter. Unfortunately, his career has been odd in the sense that although he has already had so many close calls in the biggest events of the year, he has also still yet to win a PGA TOUR event. Will Zalatoris, Young’s former Wake Forest teammate, entered last year’s FedEx St. Jude’s Championship with a similar resume, and we saw how that ended. Similar to Zalatoris, Young is a premier ball-striker, and I would say the edge that he has over Zalatoris is that he is a much better total driver of the golf ball. Young is both longer and straighter than Zalatoris off the tee, which is incredibly important at TPC Southwind. Zalatoris overcame some mediocre driving because his approach play was so elite, and while Young may not be as consistent of an iron player as Zalatoris (yet), the upside is there. Zalatoris gained nine strokes on approach en route to win this tournament last year. Young just gained nine strokes on approach en route to a second place finish at the Open Championship, a stronger field, where he lapped his competition from tee to green. Young is mostly known as one of the best drivers of the ball in the world, but his short to middle iron play is incredibly underrated. Over the last year, Young has been a top-10 player in this field in proximity from 125-200 yards, a range that accounts for upwards of 70% of approach shots at TPC Southwind. The formula at the Ron Pritchard design is fairly cut and dry. Elite total driving and short to middle iron play. Short game and putting has consistently proven to be de-valued, and we’ve seen poor putters such as Zalatoris and Justin Thomas rise to top without total command over their flat-stick. You’ll be hard pressed to find a stronger combo of total driving and short to middle iron play in this field, let alone in the eight thousand dollar range and at this ownership. This one is a slam dunk.

• Si Woo Kim, $7,400 (Projected ownership: 7.5%): Si Woo Kim was an incredibly popular option last week, and while his 33rd-place finish was not overly impressive, I’m surprised none of the love seems to be carrying over this week. Kim gained over five strokes off the tee last week, and he would have found himself far more relevant at Sedgefield had he not fell victim to a balky putter. Kim now travels to a course that he has not had a ton of success at, which may explain the lack of interest from DraftKings community. Yet I am far from deterred. Given Kim’s rock-solid total driving and middle iron play, there is no reason to believe that TPC Southwind shouldn’t be an ideal spot for him in the future. Kim joins Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland, and Hayden Buckley as one of the only five players to rank top-15 in this field in both recent off the tee form and good drive percentage. He’s also had a tremendous amount of success on this agronomy, ranking 12th in this field in tee to green on Bermuda-grass courses. Si Woo is often featured in this column for his extreme upside, and ability to win on any given week, regardless of course and field size. This golf course in particular should be a comfortable spot for him however, even if the results have not come to fruition just yet. Over the last year, Kim has actually been the number one player in this field from 150-200 yards, an incredibly important approach range this week. I’m happy to stand in front of some speculative course history on a track that lacks any real nuance, and is one of the least predictive in terms of past performance leading to future success. The last time I was this confident in Si Woo was just a few weeks ago at the Open Championship, where he opened with an under par round at Hoylake to find himself in the top-20, only to shoot a 79 in round two to fall nearly 100 spots down the leaderboard. At least he’s guaranteed four rounds this week!

Chalk Report 

• $10K: The “Big Three” have once again found themselves in a tier of their own, as there is a $900 difference between the third highest priced golfer in Jon Rahm, and the fourth in Viktor Hovland. Even the $1,000 gap between Scottie Scheffler and Rahm is alarming, but that does not appear to have much of an impact on ownership. I have Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Jon Rahm all falling between 20% and 22.5%. Rahm ends up as the highest by a hair, but there is not a discernible difference between the three. Choose your own adventure up there, or fade them all entirely like myself! I gave Scheffler a long, hard look, but I’m too in love with the $9K range to commit that heavily to a $12,100 golfer. The two other players in this range are Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele, who I both have coming in modestly around 12 to 15%. I’m not playing either of them, as four of the six players in the $9K range are in my pool, but I understand the case for both. Both are certainly stronger on Bent-grass than Bermuda, but it’s an intriguing squeeze spot. I wouldn’t be shocked if Xander trended farther down given his fickle course history as the day progressed.

• $9K: Only six players in the $9K range this week, and I’m a pretty big fan of all of them. I was surprised to see Collin Morikawa trending towards being the highest owned player in this range. Earlier in the week, I was certain that honor would go to Tyrrell Hatton, but I would give the edge to Morikawa currently. I have the two-time major winner coming in at a robust 16-17%. Tommy Fleetwood (16%), Patrick Cantlay (15%), Tyrrell Hatton (15%), and Rickie Fowler (14%) will all not be far behind. Jordan Spieth is the clear belt holder as the best leverage opportunity at 10.5%, which I actually thought would be lower earlier in the week. I’m all over Spieth this week, and he is on my outright card as well. In a vacuum, I still slightly prefer Morikawa and Fleetwood, but I’m playing all three. My final decision comes in the form of Cantlay, Hatton, or Fowler. I’m leaning towards Hatton, but all are suitable options.

• $8K: Normally a range that gets squeezed, the smaller field still creates a scenario where this portion of the slate is not feeling short-changed. I have Wyndham Clark and Sam Burns both coming in around 14 to 15%. Burns surprises me far less than Clark does. Burns is starting to play some much better golf of late, and everything about TPC Southwind feels like it was made for the recent Match Play Championship winner. Clark, on the other hand, has been solid if not unspectacular since his breakthrough win at the U.S. Open. Yet after more than doubling his career earnings in the last few months and a Ryder Cup spot already secured, I question if he will have the same fire in his belly of a Max Homa or Tony Finau. Once we get past Clark and Burns, the eight other players will all come in between 8% and 14%. I would recommend utilizing at least two out of these eight, so let’s rank them in terms of preference:
  • Cameron Young (11.5%)
  • Hideki Matsuyama (10.5%)
  • Sungjae Im (8.5%)
  • Jason Day (9.5%)
  • Tony Finau (11%)
  • Max Homa (10%)
  • Matt Fitzpatrick (10.5%)
  • Brian Harman (13%)

• $7K: In a much smaller field, it should not come as some massive shock that ownership is going to feel higher in this range than we are used to seeing. Let’s run through the double digit players that we should be weary of, ranked by price:
  • Russell Henley, $7,800 (14%)
  • Tom Kim, $7,800 (15.5%)
  • Sepp Straka, $7,700 (12.5%)
  • Corey Conners, $7,600 (12%)
  • Denny McCarthy, $7,500 (10.5%)
  • Byeong Hun An, $7,500 (10.5%)
  • Lucas Glover, $7,400 (10.5%)
  • J.T. Poston, $7,300 (12.5%)
  • Emiliano Grillo, $7,100 (13%)

It’s nearly impossible to avoid all of these players, and that would be far from necessary. I personally have the most interest in Kim, Straka, Conners, and Grillo, and I will probably pick three out of the four to ride with. A few other players in this range that have my attention include the aforementioned Si Woo Kim (7.5%), Stephan Jaeger (9.5%), Keith Mitchell (5%), and Aaron Rai (8%). It’s hard to find low $7K players at three or four percent like I am used to, but all four of these options will make my player pool. Similar to Hideki, I’m hanging on for one more week with Aaron Rai. I was incredibly high on him last week at the Wyndham, and many of the same reasons I was enamored with him at Sedgefield can still be applied to this spot as well. That one stung bad last week, but never hop off before the miracle happens. The hardest decision that I keep going back and forth on is Grillo. I very rarely utilize players below 7.5K in the double digits, but this week needs be looked at through a different lens. 13% on a $7.1K golfer is still high in a 70 man field, but the recent Colonial winner should be right at home on a golf course that emphasizes total driving and mid to short iron play.

• $6K: It’s a similar deal in the $6K range this week. Just get used to eating a little more ownership. Andrew Putnam, who has been phenomenal at TPC Southwind and feels under-priced, should still be the only player who crosses double digits. Yet there will still be loads of guys between 5 and 10%, including Brendon Todd (9%), Alex Smalley (8%), Adam Svensson (9%), Lee Hodges (9.5%), and Adam Schenk (7%). I’d like to give a quick shout to both Tom Hoge (4%) and Davis Riley (2%), my two punt plays at the bottom. Hoge, in particular, is in store for a surprise showing in Memphis.