By Andy Lack

The 2023 Fortinet Championship Final Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership 

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS, and is the type of finding small edge that over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

We should expect fairly similar scoring conditions across Thursday and Friday this week in Napa. Both afternoons will be a touch harder than the mornings, but not overwhelmingly so. Thursday afternoon may be a bit more challenging than Friday afternoon, but the difference is not stark enough for me to formulate my player pool around a potential edge this week.

Core Four

• Sahith Theegala, $9,800 (Projected ownership: 19.0%): I’m a huge fan of Sahith Theegala, but he’s not generally a player I utilize often in DraftKings because he still needs to figure out how to drive the ball in play at a more consistent rate. This doesn’t hurt him at every PGA Tour course, but it still often puts him in a position where he is unable to hit the green in regulation at a high enough rate to contend consistently. With that being said, Silverado is the type of golf course that should minimize that glaring weakness. The fairways are so narrow at Silverado, that the skill of elite accuracy is actually de-valued, as even the most precise players are unable to find the short grass at a high volume. Also, there’s very little hazards in play off the tee as well. Last year, Silverado ranked in the bottom ten on the PGA Tour in penalty strokes per round. Sure, there are some trees to navigate, but water only comes into play twice on the entire course. We already have some strong evidence to support Sahith’s comfortability here as well. He’s recorded a 14th and a sixth in two of his three appearances here, gaining over four strokes ball-striking on multiple occasions. He’s had a tremendous amount of success on these greens as well. I want Sahith on West Coast golf courses where there is a minimal penalty for wayward driving, and Silverado fits that bill to a tee. The former Haskins Award winner who played his college golf down the coast at Pepperdine has not been shy to admit that he plays some of his best golf in California, and he’s got the results to prove it. On top of multiple top-15 finishes at Silverado, Sahith finished top-six last year at both Torrey Pines and Riviera, against much stronger fields than he will be tasked with this week. After Homa, I expected Sahith to be the most popular option above $9K. That is not remotely what I am seeing as of Wednesday morning, so I will gladly jam him in at the top.

• Mark Hubbard, $8,300 (Projected ownership: 10.2%): I have come to learn with Mark Hubbard that his results rarely ever seem to line up with his appealing statistical profile, and yet I find myself going back to the well nearly every week. My numbers suggest that Hubbard is a top-six play in this entire field. I would imagine that most running a statistical model are seeing a lot of what I am, but the ownership (as of this moment) is surprisingly fair. Hubbard has been a top-three approach player in this field over the back half of the season. He also ranks top-30 in overall around the green play, Bent/Poa putting, opportunities gained, and birdies or better gained. The 34-year-old has finished 16th and 21st in his last two appearances at Silverado, and there is something about these greens that seem to really click with him. Hubbard has gained over four strokes putting in three of his last four appearances. Normally, I would flag that as unsustainable. Yet Hubbard is a reliable enough ball-striker where I’m actually looking to play him at tracks he’s proven he can putt at, which is generally a more volatile aspect of his game. Anytime I can grab a top-10 player for me statistically in the $8K range sub-15%, I’m all in. I’ll be utilizing Hubbard aggressively this week.

• Kevin Streelman, $8,000 (Projected ownership: 11.0%): With no Alex Smalley in Napa, Kevin Streelman should fill the Duke void adequately for me this week. I was surprised to see how strong my numbers were on the veteran. Streelman ranks top-15 in this field in overall approach play, overall around the green play, and good drive percentage. He’s got a solid resume at Silverado as well, with three top-25 finishes and third in 2020. Never a flashy play, but Streelman simply continues to get the job done, and hr quietly finished runner-up at the 3M Open in his penultimate start of the season. While it was ultimately not enough to qualify for the FedEx Cup playoffs, Streelman ended the 2022-2023 campaign gaining strokes ball-striking in six straight starts. With a plethora of strong finishes at both TPC Deere Run and Pebble Beach, Streelman tends to play his best golf on shorter, easier, Bent/Poa wedge-fests. The best part is that no matter how strong the stats look, you never really have to worry about ownership with a guy like Kevin Streelman. He’s just that… boring. Doug Ghim, priced next to him, is the player I would expect folks to flock to due to his gaudy ball-striking stats, but Streelman remains a much more consistent and seasoned overall player who has actually proven that he can get to 19 or 20 under. This may not be the fun play, but it’s the sound one.

• Nate Lashley, $7,400 (Projected ownership: 7.6%): Bar none, Nate Lashley is the best statistical value on this board for me, and it’s not particularly close. I have the former Rocket Mortgage Classic winner as a top-five course fit in this field, and the only players to rank ahead of him are all $2,000 more expensive. The 40-year-old ranks top-five in this field in both overall iron play and par five scoring, and he’s trustable on and around the greens as well. Lashley’s only career win came on a very similar golf course in Detroit Golf Club, and he has also contended at Pebble Beach, another West Coast course where the singular formula is wedge play and putting. Lashley did not finish the year playing amazing golf by any qualifications, but that is certainly reflected in his price. He still made his last four cuts to end the year, and the ball-striking looked all throughout the summer. Two top-25 finishes at Silverado in six appearances isn’t exactly noteworthy, but I like that he shows up at this event every year and has some solid experience both on this track, and particularly in similar agronomical conditions. I will continue to pound this home throughout the fall swing, but this is the time of year to play aggressively. Once more of the big boys show start showing up, it becomes incredibly rare for me to identify a low $7K player as a top-five play statistically. What I love most about the weak fields is that my numbers tend to be more off market, which in turn creates opportunity. Something in my numbers suggest that Nate Lashley is one of the best players in Napa, and if by some chance he comes through, I’ll personally send Nate a few Bordeaux’s myself.

Chalk Report

• $10K: There’s a fairly solid argument that at $11K and around 31%, Max Homa is under-priced and under-owned. He’s priced like Scottie Scheffler in the outright market on weeks where Scheffler is well over $12K. I haven’t made a final decision on Homa yet, but I cannot fault anyone for going in that direction. There are more than enough opportunities to get different farther down the board. I’m not seeing a massive difference between Justin Thomas (18.5%), Stephan Jaeger (21.5%), and Cam Davis (20%). I think I prefer Jaeger the most out of those three, but he does carry most ownership (splitting hairs.) The JT question is fascinating this week. I’m not sure I will end up with any exposure, and yet he is the player I am far most interested in watching. In a vacuum, I expect him to play well, and if I see any late movement in ownership that creates more separation between him, Davis and Jaeger, I’ll be a buyer. My threshold on JT is around 15%. If I sense him heading in that direction, he’s a play for me. Right now, Jaeger and Davis are still safer bets at similar ownership, but in a content-less week, I’ll be monitoring their numbers all afternoon.

• $9K: I’ve already discussed my interest in Sahith Theegala this week, and I have him coming in at a robust 19%. He will be the highest owned player in this range, but I still have him lower than Jaeger and Davis, which I was surprised by. I’ve got Eric Cole in the 17.5% zone, and I’d actually argue he’s a touch under-priced. There’s some solid opportunity in the low $9K range this week, but all come with significant question marks. Let’s rank them based on preference:
  • Brendon Todd, $9,400 (11%)
  • Andrew Putnam, $9,100 (13.5%)
  • Beau Hossler, $9,300 (11.5%)
  • J.J. Spaun, $9,200 (12%)
  • Alex Noren, $9,000 (6%)

Todd makes a ton of sense to me on paper, but the upside is limited. He remains fairly dependent on the short game and putter, but his irons are still far stronger than Hossler’s and he’s a much better driver than Noren. There’s certainly some to like about Andrew Putnam, but I could see him sneaking up closer to Cole as the afternoon progresses. As of now, I’m tentatively rolling with Sahith and Todd.

• $8K: I actually love this range and believe it’s loaded with some really solid options. Unfortunately, Chez Reavie appears to be carrying the most ownership at 15%. I believe the Chez love is warranted. As depressing of of a sentence as this is to type, he’s a top-three iron player in this field. Once we get past Chez, the ten (!) other players in this range will all fall between four and 14%. Akshay Bhatia (12.5%), Mark Hubbard (10%), Kevin Streelman (11%), and Doug Ghim (13%) are my top options. I want absolutely zero part of Webb Simpson (6%), Lucas Herbert (5%), Justin Suh (11.5%), Taylor Montgomery (4%), or Nick Hardy (9.5%). The only truly low-owned player in this range I could be sold on would be Matt Kuchar (5.5%).

• $7K: In a full field event, the $7K range is always flush with options, and as of now, I’m not seeing a ton of groupthink. I do not believe a single player will be over 16%, which is wonderful news. Here at the guys that I have coming in over 10%, ranked by preference:
  • Sam Ryder, $7,600 (11%)
  • Peter Kuest, $7,900 (11.5%)
  • Kevin Yu, $7,400 (11%)
  • Dylan Wu, $7,600 (14%)
  • Austin Eckroat, $7,800 (13%)
  • Sam Stevens, $7,600 (10.5%)
  • Davis Thompson, $7,900 (15.5%)
  • Garrick Higgo, $7,700 (11.5%)

I’ve got to admit, I don’t really understand the Davis Thompson love at all or where that is coming from. I’ll take the ownership discount on Kuest seven days a week and twice on Sunday. On the other hand, Wu, Yu, and Ryder are all absolutely playable, and I have zero qualms with all three. A few other players I have some interest in below 7.5K include Nate Lashley (7.5%), Charley Hoffman (5.5%), Ben Martin (2%), Carson Young (7.5%), and Ryan Gerard (4%). Lashley and Hoffman are the only players I feel strongly about. Martin, Young, and Gerard are more punt plays.

• $6K: It gets BLEAK down here quickly. I’m not sure a single player crosses five percent, and I completely understand why. For lack of better options, my favorites in this range would be Ryan Moore (2%), Zach Blair (4.5%), and Satoshi Kodaira (1%), but I cannot say that I feel great about any one of them. Blair is the one player that carries the potential to catch some late steam, but even so, I have him capped at 7%. The effects of Homa being under-priced are really felt down here.