By Andy Lack

The 2023 Genesis Scottish Open Final Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership 

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. Already this season, the Houston Open featured a 2.5 stroke wave advantage! As soon as we flipped the calendar to January, weather played a massive role in the Sony Open as well. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

Before I make the case for a wave stack, bear in mind that we are in Scotland. It’s never a dumb idea to also create a few lineups favoring the opposite of what you expect to happen. With that being said, I really do see a legitimate advantage for the PM/AM wave. The wind is fairly consistent all day on Thursday, with the morning players not appearing to receive a significant edge over the afternoon guys. With that being said, the players teeing off on Friday morning should have a big advantage over those in playing in the afternoon. Friday afternoon appears to feature the most challenging conditions, with consistent breezes between 18 and 22 mph, and gusts up to 30 mph at 5:00 PM! That’s certainly enough for me to take my chances with the PM/AM wave, but as I’ve already alluded to, it’s never a terrible idea to hedge your bets when attempting to predict conditions on links golf courses.

Core Four 

• Scottie Scheffler, $11,600 (Projected ownership: 20.6%) (PM/AM): I have long been awaiting the Scottie Scheffler fatigue to set in, and his ownership number is confusingly lower than I would have thought. I understand the discount available on McIlroy from a price standpoint, but Scheffler has been better at this course and is still the best pure ball-striker in the world. The former Masters champion has now gained over seven strokes ball-striking in 13 straight starts. Not only has this never been done before, but at this point, I would be fairly surprised if it’s ever done again. The last time that Scheffler had a non-elite ball-striking performance was the Sentry Tournament of Champions in January. The five-time PGA Tour winner now has six top-fives in a row, and in 15 starts this season, he has failed to finish outside of the top-12, with a whopping 10 top-fives. Finishing in the top-five in 66% of the tournaments that you play in over the course of a season long sample size is Tiger-esque, and the fact that he has only crossed the finish line twice this season just feels wrong. This is the stuff of a five or six win season, and the only aspect of his game that has been holding him back is his putting, which has been improving in the last month as well. Scheffler is one of only four players in this field to rank top-10 in both windy conditions and easy scoring conditions. I love him if this tournament is won at three under par, and I love him if this tournament is won at 15-under par. The World No. 1 possesses the highest floor in golf by a healthy margin, and I would expect him to collect at least one or two more victories to cement this historic season and his player of the year case.

• Wyndham Clark, $9,000 (Projected ownership: 12.0%) (PM/AM): There was a lot of talk coming off Wyndham Clark’s breakthrough victory at the U.S. Open that he was an unfit champion that would be lost to history, somewhat in the Gary Woodland mold. I’m not sure that I subscribe to that belief. Clark is certainly a late bloomer, hitting his stride at the tender age of 30, but I have no reason to believe that he is going away any time soon. Clark is elite at two specific skillsets that will both make him a ton of money on the PGA Tour and serve him incredibly well at the Renaissance Club: he drives the the ball a long way and can putt. Clark is one of the longest players in this entire field, and he is a top-five putter inside 10 feet in this field as well. Clark is also a rock-solid long iron player who finished 16th here last year, gaining over 7.5 strokes ball-striking. In a completely understandable letdown spot for the recent U.S. Open champion, Clark still hit the ball well and finished top-30 the following week at the Travelers Championship, another elevated event. He has established incredibly high floor due to the well rounded nature of his game, making 15 cuts in 16 starts, with 11 top-30 finishes, and it’s worth mentioned that Clark has an awfully underrated short game as well. I’m completely enamored by the course fit, and I have no reason to believe that the unheralded winner at Los Angeles Country Club, another firm and fast golf course with wide playing corridors, won’t keep his foot on the gas during the stretch run. His style of play was built for links golf and firm and fast conditions.

• Ryan Fox, $7,500 (Projected ownership: 6.9%) (PM/AM): I’m not a huge DP World Tour bettor, and I believe it is a Tour that is headed downhill quickly from a talent standpoint. Yet I still have tremendous respect for Ryan Fox’s game. The Kiwi is coming off a 43rd at the U.S. Open where he gained 3.9 strokes on approach. While he has not yet found the winner’s circle this season, Fox has developed an incredibly high floor, with 10 top-30 finishes in 14 starts this year. The 36-year-old has a strong resume of success on links courses, and he remains one of the longer drivers of the ball in this entire field. I actually do believe that there is a fair amount of value on some of the better DP World Tour players at low ownership in the mid to low $7K range, and Fox is absolutely my favorite of this bunch.

• Christiaan Bezuidenhout, $7,200 (Projected ownership: 4.6%) (PM/AM): This one is a bit off the grid, but I absolutely love Christiaan Bezuidenhout this week. The South African has two top-35 finishes and in four starts here, and he is coming off a better missed cut than the result would indicate. His driver finally turned around at the Travelers, and Bezuidenhout has sneakily been a top-15 iron player in this field over the last three months. The 29-year-old possesses two niche skills that will serve him incredibly well at the Renaissance Club, lag putting and bunker play. I would not equate sand save percentage on PGA Tour courses as a one to one reference point for being able to navigate deep and gravely bunkers in Scotland, but Bezuidenhout did gain 2.9 strokes around the green at this course last year. He also gained over four strokes on the green, and I absolutely trust his short putting in the wind. Bez is a crafty scrambler who has performed well at more coastal, windswept tracks such as Bay Hill, Waialae, and Pebble Beach in the past, and I have extremely high hopes for him in this spot as well.

Chalk Report 

• $10K: There are four players in the $10K range that I am typically a massive fan of, but only Scottie Scheffler will be teeing off in what I believe to be the favorable side of the draw. Should there be a $700 price difference between Scheffler and McIlroy on a European golf course? Probably not, but ownership does reflect that. I have Scheffler coming in at around 20.5%, and McIlroy leading the entire slate at around 23.5%. I guess this isn’t entirely surprising given that McIlroy’s form is starting to catch up to Scheffler’s, but I would still favor the World No. 1 over the Northern Irishman. Next up in this range are the Disgusting Brothers. I like both of their chances on this golf course, and neither are coming in at unpalatable numbers. I have Xander at around 15.5%, and Cantlay at 16.5%. Both are on the unfavorable side of the draw however, and since I’m taking the bold route of an aggressive wave stack, a hostile Waystar Royco takeover doesn’t appear to be in the cards for me this week.

• $9K: The $9K range is loaded with appealing options this week, and the wealth of talent has ownership fairly spread out. I actually have all eight players in this range coming in between 10 and 20%, which we rarely see. This is a good thing, as it brings handicapping more into play when ownership is so spread out. I still have Tyrrell Hatton coming in as the highest owned player in this range at 19.5%. I bet Hatton to win and am extremely high on his chances this week, but that is a number to certainly tread lightly with. I have seen Hatton on a tremendous amount of betting cards this week, and I would not be overly shocked if he is rivaling McIlroy for the highest owned player on the slate by the Wednesday night. Next up is Tommy Fleetwood at 17.5%, another player I have bet outright who I believe has an excellent chance of crossing the finish line on Sunday. My biggest case against a Fleetwood play is his unfavorable tee time. The players in the $9K range on the “right” side of the draw are Viktor Hovland (14.5%), Tyrrell Hatton (19.5%), Rickie Fowler (15.5%), Shane Lowry (11.5%), and Wyndham Clark (12%). The players in the range on the unfavorable side of the draw are Matt Fitzpatrick (11%), Tommy Fleetwood (17.5%), and Jordan Spieth (12%). I’m rocking with either Hovland or Hatton, as well as Lowry and Clark. If I had to choose a player from the unfavorable side, I would probably rock with Fleetwood, although I am not entirely opposed to Fitzpatrick either.

• $8K: I actually believe that there is a ton of opportunity in the $8K range (as always), but the potential for a weather edge complicates strategy. I am a huge fan of a 9% Sam Burns and a 6% Justin Thomas, but both have early morning tee times on Thursday. If I’m going to play as aggressively as I plan to at time of writing, Tom Kim is probably the low-owned guy for me in this range. I have the young Korean coming at a modest 7%, despite a third-place finish at this golf course last year. I’m a pretty big fan of Max Homa and Justin Rose in this range as well, but both are coming in around 13%. I would still favor both to Min Woo Lee and Ludvig Aberg. I want absolutely no part of either of those. Min Woo is the most over-priced player on the slate, but at least he’s coming in at sub-10%. I have Ludvig coming in at a fairly objectionable 17.5%. Players not mentioned that I am neutral on include Sungjae Im (7.0%), Adam Scott (10.5%), and Corey Conners (12%).

• $7K: The $7K range is always loaded in full field events, but I love how spread out ownership is in this range. I currently do not have a single player crossing the 15% threshold. Here are my locks to come in at double digits: Alex Smalley (12%), Aaron Rai (13%). That’s it! That’s the list. I have at least 10 players that should come in between seven and 12, but I can’t say definitely that any will catch a tremendous amount of steam as the day progresses. I’ll run through some of my favorites: Rasmus Hojgaard (6.5%), Brian Harman (4.5%), Ryan Fox (7%), Kurt Kitayama (6.5%), Austin Eckroat (7.5%), Eric Cole (9%), Alex Noren (5.5%), Christiaan Bezuidenhout (4.5%), and Patrick Rodgers (4%). All of those players are on the “right” side of the draw except Harman and Cole, and I’m willing to take my chances on both based on their ownership and course fit. As of now, Harman and Cole may be the only two players in my pool that are on the “wrong” side of the draw, which speaks to my belief in them.

• $6K: There’s really not much to talk about down here. The Yu’s (Kevin and Dylan) still appear to be getting some traction for whatever reason, and I’ve heard a bit of Romain Langasque buzz this week as well. Outside of that, Callum Tarren might be a touch more highly owned than his peers, but I do not have a single player below $7K crossing the 6% threshold. The only guy I have starred down here is Michael Kim, for better or worse.