By Andy Lack

The 2023 Hero World Challenge Final Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership 

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS, and is the type of finding small edge that over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

With no real wave split, and fairly consistent wind forecasts in the morning and afternoon both days, I wouldn’t spend any oxygen making decision choices based on weather conditions.

Core Four

• Scottie Scheffler, $10,700 (Projected ownership: 45.1%): Let’s get this out of the way off the bat. This week is for the real ones. I’m confused as to why they DraftKings didn’t decide on captains this week in a field of 20, especially when we were given captains recently in a field of 24 at the Ryder Cup. There are still ways to build unique lineups, but you’re going to need to get creative. I would certainly argue in favor of leaving money on the table, although I don’t see the need to leave more than say… $1.5K? I do believe there is (comparatively speaking) opportunity with Scottie Scheffler. I mean that mainly in the context of Viktor Hovland, who I have coming in around a full ten percentage points higher than Scheffler. On the heels of a FedEx Cup win, multiple strong performances at majors, and an unbelievable Ryder Cup, I certainly understand why he is attracting more attention than Scheffler. Add in the fact that he has won this tournament twice in a row, and it should not come as a surprise that he will be in upwards of 50% of lineups. With that being said, it’s not like Scheffler has been chopped liver at this course. The former Masters champion finished runner-up to Hovland in each of the last two years, and has proven himself to be a near equal threat at this golf course. Scheffler ranks second in this field in good drive percentage, first in this field in proximity inside 100 yards, and first in this proximity from 175-200 yards. My numbers still suggest that Scheffler is a better player and safer option. At lower ownership, this is an easy one.

• Rickie Fowler, $8,000 (Projected ownership: 30.5%): Coming off a disappointing Ryder Cup where he was essentially benched (or sick?), the Rickie Fowler stock has hit a bit of a lull. I certainly have little faith in Fowler on the biggest stage as well, but isn’t this week the antithesis of that? The six-time PGA Tour winner has already shown his affinity for the laidback vibes this week, with four top-fives in five appearances at this event, including a win in 2017. Fowler remains one of the best players in this field from 175 yards plus, and he has been lethal on and around Bermuda greens of late as well. As much as I love Justin Thomas this week, I’ve got Fowler close to twenty percentage points lower in ownership. That’s downright irresponsible. Fowler was a better golfer than Thomas in all aspects in 2023, and two top-five finishes at the Fortinet and Nedbank Golf Challenge are doing a lot of legwork in the argument for why Thomas should be demonstratively higher owned and higher priced. From a DraftKings perspective, the value lies completely with Fowler, who won’t have to deal with the Tiger circus early in the week either.

• Tony Finau, $7,600 (Projected ownership: 32.5%) : Similar to Fowler, sentiment on Tony Finau feels pretty low right now. Since a victory in Mexico over six months ago, the six-time PGA Tour winner has recorded just one top-10 in 11 starts. With that being said, he’s had some time away from competitive golf (depending on how you feel about the Netflix Cup), and the low-key vibe should be just what the doctor ordered for an ailing Finau looking to turn the page on a new season. In a vacuum, I love the former Mexico Open champion’s fit at Albany, which has a lot in common with Vidanta Vallarta, as previously discussed in the course preview. Finau has already recorded three top-sevens in four appearances at this track, including a runner-up in 2018 in his first appearance. Ownership will be in check as well. At one point a DFS darling, I haven’t seen much Finau chatter in our community in months.

• Justin Rose, $6,900 (Projected ownership: 31.1%): I almost thought about rolling the dice with Will Zalatoris in this spot. He did shoot a 63 at his home course and recently recorded a 178 ball-speed after all. I say that tongue in cheek, as expectations should still be quelled on any player coming off major injury. Even at what may be slightly higher ownership, Justin Rose just feels like a far safer play. The Bahamas resident has a sneaky great record at the Hero, with three top-fives in his last four appearances. I’d much rather go to battle with players who have established a routine at this event and possess a worthy track record, as opposed to the multiple players (Bradley, Zalatoris, Day, Harman, Glover) in the $6K range with a negligible track record/experience at Albany.

Chalk Report

• $10K: There are four players in the $10K range this week, but Viktor Hovland and Scottie Scheffler deserve their own conversation. I have Hovland coming in at 53%, and Scheffler coming in at 45%. That’s a bit too much of a discrepancy for me, and I’ve already discussed my reasons for favoring the latter over the former. There is a sizable drop in both price and ownership before we get to Max Homa and Collin Morikawa at the bottom of this range, which is warranted. Hovland and Scheffler should be thought of in a tier of their own. Rarely do we encounter a situation where the best two players in this field from a skill perspective also possess the strongest course history. Homa and Morikawa are still both worthy of their price, and neither is carrying exorbitant ownership. I have Homa coming in at 38.5%, and Morikawa at 35%. My hunch is that most folks recognize the talent gap as well, and find a way to incorporate Scheffler or Hovland (or both), only to differentiate elsewhere. Due to the generous pricing, I don’t mind jamming a Morikawa or Homa in with Scheffler or Hovland, and taking your chances elsewhere in the $6K range.

• $9K: Only Matt Fitzpatrick occupies the $9K range this week, and I have him coming in at a paltry 30.5%. Fitzpatrick is on a bit of an island, as there is no player within $500 dollars of him in either direction. I have so many questions for whoever was in charge of pricing at DraftKings this week, and while I don’t love Fitzpatrick’s course fit here, I imagine there will be many who have room for Fitzpatrick and utilize him solely based on the fear of leaving too much money on the table. In a vacuum, I simply prefer Cameron Young and Justin Thomas on this golf course.

• $8K: Only three players occupy the $8K range, with Justin Thomas standing out as far and away the most popular option. I have Thomas coming in at around 49%, Fowler at 30.5%, and Cameron Young at 24%. As much as I love JT’s chances this week, it’s difficult to make the case that he is double as likely to outperform Young this week, who did finish third at this event last year in his own right, and is a wonderful course fit. Young and Fowler both present super intriguing options in my opinion, and both outweigh the option of paying up for Fitzpatrick from a course history and fit standpoint.

• $7K: There are a couple intriguing choices in the $7K range, and I’d argue that Sam Burns at $7,100 is a little too cheap. I’ve got Burns coming in at 30%, right with Finau, and Jordan Spieth and Wyndham Clark trailing by at least five percentage points in ownership. I want no part of Spieth at this event, who has finished in the bottom five each of the last three years. He’s been battling a wrist injury after the Ryder Cup, and we haven’t seen him in competitive action since he was virtually unplayable at Marco Simone. I’m lukewarm on Wyndham Clark too, who will be making his first appearance at this event. Burns, who almost won here two years ago, and the aforementioned Finau, are both my preferred options.

• $6K: The $6K range is most plentiful this week, with eight options spanning from Justin Rose to Lucas Glover. I’ve already mentioned that Rose is my favorite of this group, and Will Zalatoris would be the other playable option. I don’t feel great about any of the others, but I’ll rank in terms of preference:
  • Sepp Straka, $6,700 (26.0%)
  • Jason Day, $6,500 (21.0%)
  • Keegan Bradley, $6,800 (22.5%)
  • Lucas Glover, $6,000 (21.5%)
  • Brian Harman, $6,400 (28.5%)
  • Tiger Woods, $6,100 (12.5%)

Is Tiger Woods playable this week? I actually think so. I’ve got him as the lowest owned player on the slate, and he’s looked healthy all week. It’s the Hero World Challenge after all, one of the the flattest and easiest walks that Woods will be faced with all year. The 15-time major winner is at least ten percentage points lower than any other player in this range, and only Justin Rose has ever recorded a top-10 at this event. It’s still a genuine risk based on the withdrawal potential. No matter what he says in a press conference, Tiger is always live to withdraw if something in his body acts up throughout the week. That’s why from a DFS perspective, it’s hard to advocate for him over any of the regular PGA Tour pros with dozens of competitive reps under their belt in the last calendar year. Maybe the best way to utilize Tiger is in showdown, where you can alleviate a bit of the full tournament withdrawal risk.

Best of luck this week – AL