For months, Adrian Meronk receiving a captain’s selection for the European Ryder Cup team felt like a foregone conclusion. The Polish Hammer has won three times since Europe’s embarrassing 2021 defeat at Whistling Straits, including the DS Automobiles Italian Open, held at none other than Marco Simone Golf Club. For what it’s worth, Meronk also finished runner-up at Marco Simone in 2021 as well. Since winning at the host venue in May, the 6’6” Pole hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire, but he hasn’t been playing poorly either. In 10 starts since his Italian Open victory, Meronk has made seven cuts, with five top-25 finishes, including a 5th at the KLM Open and a third at the BMW International Open. He’s played in three majors during that time period as well, finishing 40th at the PGA Championship, MC at the U.S. Open, and 23rd at the Open Championship. Over the last three months, Meronk has gained 0.55 strokes per round, ranking 21st out of all qualified Europeans during that time period. Among the 20 Europeans that boast stronger recent form than Meronk includes Nicolai Hojgaard, the big-swinging Dane who seemingly stole the final selection at the 11th hour. Hojgaard’s resume does parallel Meronk’s in more ways than one. The 22-year-old has also won at Marco Simone, albeit in 2021, and he finished fifth there this year. Both players have a win and a top-five in three appearances at the host venue. Meronk’s runner-up is more impressive than Hojgaard’s fifth, but in 2022, Hojgaard finished 27th and Meronk missed the cut. Safe to call course history a wash. The last two weeks however is where Hojgaard clearly separated himself. Both played the D + D Real Czech Masters and the Omega European Masters. Meronk finished 62nd in Prague and 13th in Crans-sur Sierre. Hojgaard, on the other hand, finished third and fifth. The recent form edge is clearly in Hojgaard’s favor. Over the last three months, the Dane has gained 0.81 true strokes per round, over a quarter of a stroke better than Meronk. If we dive into the experience factor, neither player possesses a clear edge. Both have never played in a Ryder Cup. Meronk, at 30 years-old, is an older and more seasoned player, but a late bloomer nonetheless. All of Meronk’s career victories have come in the last 13 months. The East Tennessee State alumn was a decorated amateur, playing for Europe in the Arnold Palmer in 2015 and 2016, but after three years of floundering on the Challenge Tour, Meronk did not even earn full status to the DP World Tour until 2020. He played his first major championship in 2021, and in six major starts, Meronk has made three cuts, with zero finishes inside the top-20. His 23rd at Royal Liverpool this year was his only finish inside the top-40. At 22 years-old, Hojgaard is nearly a full decade younger than Meronk, yet he’s accomplished nearly just as much in a far shorter period of time. Hojgaard won both the European Amateur and the Eisenhower Trophy in 2018 at the tender age of 17. He won on the Nordic Golf League before his 18th birthday, and competed in his first major championship in the same year. Hojgaard turned professional at 18, foregoing college, and won his first European event at Marco Simone before his 21st birthday. Hojgaard later won the Ras Al Khaimah Championship in February of 2022, collecting his second DP World Tour victory. The Dane has played in five major championships to Meronk’s six, making three cuts, with a career best finish also coming in the form of a 23rd at Royal Liverpool this year. In terms of experience in big events, it’s difficult to make a case that Meronk, despite being eight years Hojgaard’s senior, has spent more time in the sun. To me, the idea of selecting players that the Europeans expect to be a fixture on future Ryder Cup squads is valued far less by actual brass than many believe, yet if building for the future is part of the calculus, Hojgaard feels the more congruous choice. The final stone unturned is course fit, and here’s where the conversation gets more convoluted. The limited viewpoint is that both players are obvious course fits based on their record at Marco Simone, yet I’d argue there’s a touch more nuance to the debate. Meronk’s success at Marco Simone can be explained by some absolutely elite driving. In all three appearances, Meronk has gained over two strokes off the tee, and in 2021, when he finished second, he also gained over seven strokes on approach. For what it’s worth, Meronk has putted well here too, gaining over 2.5 strokes putting in all three appearances. Hojgaard has similarly struck the ball beautifully at Marco Simone, gaining over seven strokes ball-striking in all three appearances. He’s gained over three strokes off the tee and on approach in all three appearances, while failing to gain over a stroke around the green or over two strokes putting in both appearances. At a granular level, Hojgaard has hit the ball better than Meronk at Marco Simone, as the Pole has relied a touch more on his short game and putter. Does this fall in line with the statistical profile of both players? If we look at both players’ baseline over the last year, Meronk ranks 20th in true strokes gained off the tee, 117th in approach, and 104th around the green, good for 62nd in tee to green. Hojgaard ranks 67th off the tee, 72nd in approach and 118th around the green, equalling a ranking of 83rd in tee to green. Minute differences, yet where Meronk separates himself is via his accuracy off the tee. Both players are plenty long, yet Hojgaard is one of the most inaccurate drivers of the ball in the world’s current top-150, ranking 141st compared to Meronk’s 63rd. If we shrink the sample size to the last six months, Meronk ranks 14th off the tee, 111th in approach, and 105th around the green, good for 69th overall in tee to green. During that same timespan, Hojgaard ranks 74th off the tee, 49th in approach, and 97th around the green, good for 63rd in tee to green. Again, minute differences, with Meronk’s accuracy standing out as the key separator. Over the last six months, Meronk ranks 57th in true accuracy to Hojgaard’s ranking of 140th. Shrinking the sample size even further to just the last three months, Meronk ranks 16th in true strokes gained off the tee and 47th in true accuracy, compared to Hojgaard’s ranking of 63rd in true strokes gained off the tee and 138th in true accuracy. The more I dive into it, the more parallels I see in the Hojgaard selection to Zach Johnson’s choice of Sam Burns for the American side. Both pack plenty of pop off the tee, but are incredibly inaccurate drivers of the ball. This leads me to the question, if two captain’s selections were used on such wayward drivers, are we over-valuing the importance of accuracy at Marco Simone? Of course, the European team is in control of course set-up, and while they have a team chock full of excellent drivers of the ball, Hojgaard is far from the only member to be far more long than accurate. Over the last 12 months, here are the ranks of the European team in true distance vs. true accuracy:
- Rory McIlroy: 2nd in Distance, 128th in Accuracy
- Ludvig Aberg: 9th in Distance, 71st in Accuracy
- Nicolai Hojgaard: 12th in Distance, 141st in Accuracy
- Jon Rahm: 15th in Distance, 110th in Accuracy
- Viktor Hovland: 37th in Distance, 28th in Accuracy
- Tyrrell Hatton: 47th in Distance, 58th in Accuracy
- Robert MacIntyre: 49th in Distance, 127th in Accuracy
- Matt Fitzpatrick: 57th in Distance, 114th in Accuracy
- Shane Lowry: 75th in Distance, 47th in Accuracy
- Tommy Fleetwood: 85th in Distance, 27th in Accuracy
- Sepp Straka: 86th in Distance, 25th in Accuracy
- Justin Rose: 87th in Distance, 43rd in Accuracy
If we go by the numbers, distance is actually far more of an asset to the European side than accuracy. Every single team member ranks inside the top-90 in true distance over the last year, and four of the 12 rank inside the top-15. The average distance rank on the European team is 46.75, and we ought to imagine that Rory, Rahm, and Hovland, three of their five longest drivers, will be utilized heavily. On the contrary, not a single European ranks inside the top-20 in accuracy. Sepp Straka, Tommy Fleetwood, and Viktor Hovland, are the only players who rank inside the top-30 in true accuracy, and Rory, Hojgaard, MacIntyre, Rahm, and Fitzpatrick, all rank outside the top-100. Overall, the European team yields an average ranking of 76.6 in accuracy. Now let’s contrast those numbers to the U.S. side:
- Wyndham Clark: 10th in Distance, 122nd in Accuracy
- Scottie Scheffler: 23rd in Distance, 36th in Accuracy
- Sam Burns: 25th in Distance, 108th in Accuracy
- Brooks Koepka: 28th in Distance, 117th in Accuracy
- Patrick Cantlay: 31st in Distance, 15th in Accuracy
- Justin Thomas: 40th in Distance, 113th in Accuracy
- Rickie Fowler: 44th in Distance, 66th in Accuracy
- Jordan Spieth: 54th in Distance, 106th in Accuracy
- Max Homa: 60th in Distance, 50th in Accuracy
- Xander Schauffele: 61st in Distance, 93rd in Accuracy
- Collin Morikawa: 104th in Distance, 5th in Accuracy
- Brian Harman: 130th in Distance, 17th in Accuracy
By the numbers, the Europeans boast four of the longest five players in the field, and while the U.S. team is also more long (average distance rank: 50.83) than they are accurate (average accuracy rank: 70.7), the gap separating the two is more narrow. This doesn’t even account for the fact that a set-up favoring distance over accuracy would hurt two players on the U.S. side, Collin Morikawa and Brian Harman, the two most accurate drivers of the ball in Rome (and also the two shortest players in Rome), more than any other player on the European side. Rolling the dice with Ludvig and Hojgaard gives the Europeans four of the five longest players of the entire 24 headed to Rome, and bolsters their length advantage even further. A golf course that emphasizes length over accuracy also entirely devalues the off the tee skill of both Harman and Morikawa, and increases the advantage that the Euro’s best two players, McIlroy and Rahm, have over the U.S.’s best two players, Scheffler and Cantlay. McIlroy and Rahm are far more inaccurate than Scheffler and Cantlay, yet they pack far more of a punch in the distance category. While antithetical to the set-up deployed at Le Golf National in 2018, the Hojgaard selection proves an auspicious harbinger of what behooves the European side in Rome.
