By Andy Lack

The 2023 John Deere Classic Classic Final Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership 

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. Already this season, the Houston Open featured a 2.5 stroke wave advantage! As soon as we flipped the calendar to January, weather played a massive role in the Sony Open as well. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

I tip my cap to anyone playing a wave stack at the John Deere Classic on Fourth of July week, but I don’t see it. I could listen to the argument that PM/AM might have the slightest of advantages due to some higher wind gusts early on Thursday morning, but that still feels like a reach. Play your guys this week.

Core Four

• Cameron Young, $10,000 (Projected ownership: 14.4%): I love the opportunity that we have this week with Cameron Young, who I really do believe will make a statement in the stretch run of the PGA Tour season. If we traveled back in time three months ago, and I told you that Young was cheaper than both Denny McCarthy and Russell Henley, while coming in at half the ownership, you would tell me I’m crazy. This is quite simply a strokes gained common sense situation. Yes, Young is not playing great golf right now, but he has still gained strokes ball-striking in his last six starts. He’s not as far off as his results would indicate. I don’t think that TPC Deere Run is the perfect golf course for him, but it’s certainly not a bad one for him. This is the time of year where he really caught fire last season, and top-five finishes at Detroit Golf Club and St. Andrew’s leave me with zero concern that he can absolutely keep up in a birdie-fest. This year, Young is still the number one player in this field in opportunities gained, and despite a poor putting season, he still ranks fourth in birdies or better gained as well. Even in a down year, no one in this field is better at consistently generating birdie looks than Cameron Young. For what it’s worth, he’s an incredibly underrated wedge player too, ranking fourth in proximity 125-150 yards this season. Opportunities like this don’t come along as often these days in a sharper DFS scene, but this is an absolute smash spot.

• Alex Smalley, $8,900 (Projected ownership: 15.5%): Alex Smalley is my official pick to win this week, and although his ownership is higher than I would like, I have enough pivots throughout my pool to go down with the ship on the former Duke University standout. Smalley is coming off an absolutely elite approach performance last week at the Rocket Mortgage where he gained 7.3 strokes on approach, and he now returns to a golf course where he finished 16th last year, gaining over six strokes ball-striking. Smalley is elite at generating birdie looks for himself, ranking 10th in this field in opportunities gained, and he is a great wedge player too. I do have some concerns about his putter, particularly on Bent-grass, but he does rank second in this field in easy scoring conditions over the last two years. A previous 16th here and a ninth this year at TPC River Highlands does leave me feeling optimistic about his ability to take it low in this type of agronomical and scoring conditions. While I try and not let my Duke bias seep into my predictions, I have a hard time resisting this week on the guy that made me realize I was not cut out for college golf.

• Stephan Jaeger, $8,800 (Projected ownership: 17.7%): If Alex Smalley doesn’t win, Stephan Jaeger will. Similar to Smalley, I wish the ownership was a touch lower, but Jaeger is under-priced. He was $8,900 last week in a much stronger field, finished in ninth place, and now he is $8,800 in a much weaker field? Excuse me? For reference, Adam Schenk finished one stroke better than Jaeger last week, and went from $7,300 to $9,500. I understand that Schenk’s course history at TPC Deere Run is part of that equation, but I absolutely love the way this golf course sets up for Jaeger as well. For what it’s worth, he did gain over eight strokes ball-striking at TPC Deere Run last year. The German is also one of the most accurate drivers of this ball in this field and possesses an awesome short game, two underrated assets that I believe will come in handy at the D.A. Weibring design. The iron play and putting is percolating as well, as he gained four strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting last week at Detroit Golf Club, another Bent-grass golf course with similar scoring conditions that emphasizes wedge play. At this price, we are looking for far more than just a made cut, but it’s worth noting that Jaeger has quietly turned into one of the most consistent players on Tour, making 15 of 17 cuts this calendar year. This price is an absolute gift, and one that ought to be capitalized on.

• Mark Hubbard, $7,700 (Projected ownership: 9.9%): After back-to-back missed cuts at relatively high ownership, now is the time to buy on Mark Hubbard. He remains the number one iron player in this field over the past three months, and although the ball-striking waned for him last week at the Rocket Mortgage, Hubbard should be incredibly comfortable this week at TPC Deere Run. The 34-year-old finished 13th last year at the D.A. Weibring design, and he ranks fourth in this field in easy scoring conditions. Hubbard is one of the more accurate drivers of the ball in this field, and he is an above average wedge player and putter as well. The Denver native possesses all the ingredients to succeed on this style of golf course, and his ownership price and ownership is finally more palatable despite two recent top-10s at the Charles Schwab and Canadian Open.

Chalk Report 

• $10K: I had initially thought that Denny McCarthy, even as the highest priced player, would still carry more ownership than Russell Henley, but that does not appear to be the case. I surprisingly have Henley as the highest owned player on the slate at 24.5%, despite him not being a massive presence on betting cards this week. Maybe he gets closer to Denny on Wednesday afternoon, as it is not as if the discrepancy between the two is much. I have Denny at around 21.5%. Once we get past Henley and Denny, there’s a pretty sizable gap before we get to Cameron Young and Ludvig Aberg. Unfortunately, Young does appear to be rising. As late as yesterday afternoon, I thought there would be a chance that Young would come in around 10%, but I currently have him closer to 14.5%. That could even increase. If folks start to look at this at a macro level and see the massive gap between Henley and McCarthy vs. Young, cooler heads might continue to prevail late on Wednesday. Oh how the tides have turned on young Ludvig, who feels like a very safe to bet to come in with the lowest ownership in this range. I currently have the young European sensation at around at 12%. Even if Young creeps closer to 15 or 16%, he is still my preferred choice in this range.

• $9K: Ownership is all over the map in this range, but let’s attempt to sift through it. Adam Hadwin, Eric Cole, and Adam Schenk should all come in around 17%. If I was to rank the three, I would go Schenk, Hadwin, Cole. I’m just not there on the Cole love this week. Unfortunately, I do not think that Chris Kirk will be too far behind this group. I have him slowly creeping towards 16%. Emiliano Grillo has a chance to get there as well, although his projections are more inconsistent. I currently have him at 15%, but I could see him as low as 12% and as high as 18%. I feel more confident in Taylor Moore at 14.5% than the Grillo number. After Moore, there’s a sizable drop before we get to Seamus Power, Keith Mitchell and J.T. Poston, who are all extremely safe bets to come in below 10%. I have zero interest in Power, but I’m starting to like Poston more and more as the week progresses. I find the defending champion at 7.5% to be extremely intriguing. I really do like Keith Mitchell as well, and the big hitting Georgia product was a near miss on my betting card. Not to give too much away, but a Mitchell-Poston start leaves me feeling great about the jamming in a more popular Stephan Jaeger or Alex Smalley as my third man in.

• $8K: I’ve already discussed my love for Alex Smalley and Stephan Jaeger, and I know I am not alone on that. They will certainly be the two highest owned players in this range. I wish their ownership was a tad lower, but since I’m fading all of the high priced chalk this week, I can eat it without much concern. I have Smalley around 15.5% and Jaeger around 17.5%. Once we get past Jaeger and Smalley, my hunch is that an under-priced Nick Taylor will be the third most popular option in this range. My early week projections had him in the 11% zone, but I now have him creeping up closer to 14.5%. He might be on the outside looking in for me, but that’s still a very fair number on the recent Canadian Open champ. Doug Ghim will clear double digits as well, and you can just absolutely miss me on that one. I would be far more inclined to play an 8.5% Patrick Rodgers, who will certainly make my player pool. Byeong Hun An (8.0%), Sepp Straka (7.5%), Christian Bezuidenhout (8.5%), Taylor Montgomery (5.5%), and Matt Kuchar (7.5%), will all be in the high single digits. I would definitely recommend utilizing at least one or two of the single digit $8K players. Here would be my ranking of the six: Rodgers, Kuchar, Straka, Bezuidenhout, An, Montgomery. It brings me great joy that folks are beginning to realize that Montgomery stinks.

• $7K: Have we broken contain on a 15% Dylan Wu? People are asking the question. I like Wu fine, but that feels a tad irresponsible. I am much more sympathetic to the Chez Reavie love, who I have zero issues with this week, even at 13%. It’s going to be a hard and easy pass for me on an 11% Callum Tarren and a 12% Lucas Glover. I understand both are coming off awesome ball-striking performances at the Rocket Mortgage, but with players this volatile, it is much more likely that those numbers were more of an outlier than an indicator of future success. One, if not both of Tarren and Glover will miss the cut. There are a few more names worth mentioning in here that I’m struggling with. I’m surprised that Chesson Hadley is all the way up in the high single digits, and I would be remiss not to mention Carson Young as well. I actually do understand the Carson love this week moreso than I have in the past, but he is still a tough pill to swallow at 10ish percent. A few other names that I currently have in the high single digits that could sneak past 10% include Mark Hubbard, Ryan Palmer, Michael Kim, and Justin Lower. I’m playing Hubbard, Palmer, and Kim, but will gladly pass on Lower.

• $6K: On a content deprived week with so few comfortable clicks, it’s unsurprising that a few cheap options are coming in at inflated ownership. None of these names will clear 10%, but I do believe that Ryan Moore, Greyson Sigg, and Satoshi Kodaira will all clear 5%. I somewhat understand the love on all three, and at least one, if not two, will make my player pool. I’m a huge Chris Stroud fan this week as well at $6,300.

Best of luck this week – AL