By Andy Lack

The 2023 Memorial Final Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership 

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. Already this season, the Houston Open featured a 2.5 stroke wave advantage! As soon as we flipped the calendar to January, weather played a massive role in the Sony Open as well. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

I’m not seeing much this week in terms of a potential weather advantage. The wind appears fairly consistent across all of Thursday and Friday. Friday afternoon features a touch stronger gusts than Thursday afternoon, but certainly not to the point where I would strongly suggest there will be a significant difference in scoring.

Core Four

• Xander Schauffele, $10,200 (Projected ownership: 18.3%): I’ve always felt pretty strongly that the Memorial was a tournament that Xander Schauffele was going to win. From a course fit standpoint, my numbers actually have him as the number one option in the field. Statistically, Xander rates out better for me than Rahm, Rory, Cantlay, and Scheffler, so as one can imagine, my interest in him this week was high. With that being said, I still could not justify an outright wager on him at 14/1. He just doesn’t win enough. I do believe the fact that Xander’s egregious number in the betting markets is going to have a beneficial affect on his ownership. No, he is certainly is not sneaking up on anyone, but I do believe that he will be lower than Scheffler, Rahm, and Cantlay. All three are extremely tough players to fade, but the combination of my statistical fit and the price and ownership discount is enough for me to give the edge here to Schauffele as the man I choose to pair with a significantly under-owned Rory (I wasn’t planning on playing Rory this week, but I was left no choice… NINE percent?!) To put a bow on the Xander case and why Muirfield Village is the perfect golf course for him, the seven-time PGA TOUR winner ranks eighth in this field in good drive percentage, 10th off the tee on long golf courses, fifth in recent approach play, FIRST in proximity from 200 yards plus, 11th in Bent-grass putting, third in par five scoring, and second in strokes gained total over the last five years on long and difficult golf courses. He’s coming off an 18th at the PGA Championship where he gained over five strokes ball-striking, good for his seventh top-20 finish in a row. He’s now gained over five strokes ball-striking in four straight starts. The San Diego native is playing some of the best golf of his career and now travels to a golf course that is tailor made for his game. His ownership is fair all things considered as well. I’ll gladly take the plunge.

• Justin Thomas, $9,200 (Projected ownership: 13.0%): Justin Thomas has grown on me as the week has progressed. No, his recent statistical profile is not remotely as strong as many of the other options in the $9K range, but there’s something about this event that just feels like the perfect get right spot. Thomas was a consensus top-seven-ish (?) player in the world heading into this season, and he has unquestionably been the most disappointing of the elite players. Much of that has to do with a horrendous putter, but he’s also in the midst of his worst iron season since 2014. It’s actually remarkable how many solid finishes he has still been able to manage without having anything even remotely resembling his best stuff. Eight top-25 finishes in 11 starts this season would make nearly any professional golfer a very happy man, but it must be mentioned that the three tournaments this year that he has not finished in the top-25 are the Players, the Masters, and the PGA Championship. That’s not going to cut it. It’s time for JT to shit or get off the pot at this point. The season is no longer young, and he’s not even remotely a factor in the FedEx Cup. For the record, the FedEx Cup is not important to me, and it may not be important to JT, but his ranking compared to his is an indication of just how much he’s underachieved this year. I still believe that Muirfield Village is an awesome golf course for him, as evidenced by a playoff loss to Collin Morikawa at the Workday Championship. JT has still been driving the ball quite well this season, and his short game ranks amongst the best in the world. Morikawa has been a bit better this season, but I still can’t get down with a $700 price difference between the two. I’ll take my chances with the 14-time PGA Tour winner.

• Tom Kim, $7,900 (Projected ownership: 11.5%): I knew I was going to be in on Tom Kim before pricing dropped, and I feel fairly comfortable with the ownership and price tag he’s currently coming in with. I have long felt that Muirfield Village throws many off their scent with the gaudy scorecard yardage, causing some to compare it to other long and daunting PGA Tour courses such as Torrey Pines and Bay Hill that heavily favor those with power off the tee. To me, Jack’s place is far more about accuracy off the tee than it is distance, and we’ve seen countless examples of players with below average length off the tee find considerable success here. What I love about Kim is that he’s incredibly accurate off the tee, ranking 16th in this field in good drive percentage, and he still gains strokes off the tee on long golf courses. Similar to Morikawa, he also makes up for his lack of distance by the fact that he is an elite long iron player, ranking 13th in proximity from 200 yards plus. Kim is quietly playing a lot better golf than his results would suggest, and although he missed the cut at Oak Hill, a very poor golf course for him, the two-time PGA Tour winner still found a way to gain over a stroke off the tee and over two strokes on approach. I believe this is an incredible buy low spot on a player that is still oozing with talent, but has been tossed aside in recent months for newer toys. This is an excellent spot for him.

• Matt Kuchar, $7,500 (Projected ownership: 6.9%): Never a sexy option, but Matt Kuchar still delivers, especially at this golf course. In 13 appearances at Muirfield Village, Kuchar has made 12 cuts, with nine top-20 finishes, seven top-10s, five top-fives, and a win in 2013. His track record at Jack’s place is nearly unparalleled. The reason for this is very simple. Kuchar keeps the ball in play off the tee, has an elite short game, and he could putt these greens blindfolded. The fact that he is such an accurate driver, and also possesses an elite short game and putter can easily mask his long iron deficiencies. On a golf course where short game is arguably the most imperative on Tour outside of Augusta, sign me up for the number one player in recent strokes gained around the green and long-term sand save percentage. Yes, Kuchar laps this entire field in both of those metrics. Given how sneakily strong his season has been (four top-10s in 12 starts), I would have expected Kuchar to be typical course history chalk, but that does not appear to be the case. This is really not one to over-think too hard. Plug him in.

Chalk Report

• $10K: The heavy hitters are back this week in the $10K range. Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm lead the charge, and I do have them as the highest owned players on the entire slate. I do not see either crossing 25%, but somewhere between 22% and 24% for both feel just right. I think it’s a coin flip between the two, I’m playing neither, but I don’t feel great about it. Patrick Cantlay will be right behind them at an even 21%, and he would actually be my preferred choice of the three. Next up is the aforementioned Xander Schauffele, who I have coming in at around 18.5%. Rory McIlroy will carry the lowest ownership in this range by a healthy margin. I have him coming in between 9 and 10%, which really leaves us no choice. Not to step on the $9K range, but if you are not taking a shot on either a 9% Rory or Collin in this spot, then you probably don’t understand the game we are playing.

• $9K: Rory McIlroy is far from the only great leverage opportunity close to the top of the slate this week, as former Workday champion, Collin Morikawa, feels like a lock to come in at high single digits ownership. I’m a huge fan of Morikawa in this spot, and while he is not the only $9K player that will come in below 10%, he is certainly my favorite of the bunch. The other three players that I also have between eight and 10% are Jason Day, Sungjae Im, and Matt Fitzpatrick. Of those three, I actually favor Sungjae the most. I think the pendulum has swung a bit too far with him after a heat check the last two weeks, and that his body of work still speaks to a player that is incredibly close to finding the winner’s circle. I’m never a big Day or Fitzpatrick guy, but I can’t argue with the leverage they present. Justin Thomas will obviously be prominently featured in my pool, and his price and ownership of 13% is more than fair. This leaves us with Viktor Hovland and Tyrrell Hatton, who should both come in between 14 and 17%. If you are very high on either, neither’s ownership is irresponsible, but there are far more sensible options. I would still endorse Hatton over Hovland in this spot, but either are still interesting choices, especially when paired with a McIlroy or Morikawa.

• $8K: There’s certainly a bit unfortunate groupthink arising in this range. I was very surprised to see the gaudy ownership number on Corey Conners this week, and I have him as the most popular player in this range at an even 17%. I love Corey Conners as much as the next guy, and I have certainly argued in favor of his course fit, but I was very surprised to see him come in this high. Rickie Fowler at 16% is a bit less surprised, but still an easy pass at that number. What I am truly most frustrated with is Adam Scott and Hideki Matsuyama both finding themselves in the 15% range as well! What the heck guys! I’m still playing at least one of them because I am so bullish on both, but I’ve been priced out of playing both. After months of being under-owned, I even have Shane Lowry coming in at 14%. Si Woo Kim should be in that zone as well. The $8K range is usually neglected, but it appears this week as that many taking a different approach (Two at the top and then full fade of the $9K range? Hideki, Fowler, Lowry, Conners, or Scott as a third man in?) There are still leverage opportunities in this range. Cameron Young and Sam Burns will both definitely be in the single digits, but for good reason. I have serious concerns about both. I’ve been circling this 11% Jordan Spieth situation. I’m not fully there yet but I’m monitoring it closely. No reason interest on low double digits for Sahith Theegala or Wyndham Clark however.

• $7K: Unlike some unappealing groupthink in the $8K range, the sevens actually appear to be fairly spread out this week. There’s a weird Benny An thing circulating this week that I don’t quite understand at all, but even he feels capped in the low double digits. At the top of the range, I do have Russell Henley and Tom Kim in the low double digits, but both are certainly playable. There’s an outside shot that Keegan could hit double digits as well, but that would surprise me. A few others that deserve a mention as players that we don’t need to be concerned about but will be more owned than some of their peers include Emiliano Grillo, Gary Woodland, Denny McCarthy, Matt Kuchar, Chris Kirk, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, and Ryan Fox.

• $6K: With the popularity of Rahm, Scheffler, Cantlay, and Xander, and the potential that some might attempt to play two of those options in the $10K range, I’ve actually seen more ownership down here than I am used to. I still do not believe that anyone in the sixes will cross seven or eight percent, but there are a number of players that I could envision hitting five percent. Those players include Adam Svensson, Eric Cole, Justin Suh, Alex Smalley, Kevin Streelman, Austin Eckroat, Sepp Straka, Akshay Bhatia, Samuel Stevens, Mark Hubbard, and Chez Reavie. If I had to guess the two players with the best chance to creep up to double digits, I would go with Eckroat and Streelman, but 10% on either would still surprise me.