By Andy Lack

2023 Oak Hill Course Breakdown: Oak Hill

The Basics 

• Course: Oak Hill
• Location: Rochester, New York
• Designer: Donald Ross (1925), Andrew Green restoration (2019-2020)
• Length: Par 70; 7,394 yards
• Hazards: Water comes into play on 6 holes
• Fairways: Bent-grass
• Rough: Rye-grass, Blue-grass, and Tall Fescue
• Greens: Bent-grass measuring 4,500 square feet on average

 

It’s here! The PGA Championship returns to Oak Hill Country Club for the first time in a decade, and boy are we in for a treat. Oak Hill is one of the most iconic golf clubs in the country and has been host to three U.S. Opens, three PGA Championships, a Ryder Cup, and two U.S. Amateur tournaments. They remain one of the only clubs in America to have hosted every possible men’s major golf tournament for which they are eligible. Last time that we saw the golf course was in 2013, when Jason Dufner triumphed at 10 under par over Jim Furyk, but do not be surprised if the track that you see this week looks absolutely nothing like the claustrophobic, tree-lined test that players were tasked with a decade ago. This is of course because of a 2019 restoration by the great Andrew Green, one of the most talented up-and-coming restorative architects in modern golf course design. His work both at Oak Hill and Baltusrol have drawn rave reviews. Before we get any deeper into the course, let’s run through absolutely everything you need to know about Green’s restoration, and how the golf course has drastically changed since hosting its last major championship.

Andrew Green Restoration 

Andrew Green was not the first architect to lay his hands on the original Donald Ross-designed East Course. Robert Trent Jones and Tom Fazio both made changes throughout the 1950s, 60s, and 70s, beefing the golf course up to modern championship standards. Green was tasked with undoing a lot of their mistakes and restoring the golf course to its original Ross design while still creating a test for the best players in the world. Green re-shaped the greens to many of their original outlines, which in turn allows the golf course to have far more pinnable locations and variety in setup options. A lot of the greens, mainly from bunker splashes, had been flipped on their edges, creating a punch bowl effect. Each of the greens are now tiered and re-designed to reclaim the corners and edges that had been lost. A lot of rough was removed around the greens as well in exchange for tightly mown chipping areas, creating far more shot options and strategic value both on the second shot and around the green. We LOVE this.

The bunkers are completely different as well, both in the fairways and around the green. They are deeper, at lower elevation to the greens, and far tougher to recover from. Like we saw at Southern Hills last year, they are true hazards. The idea was for players to stop bailing out in bunkers, and Green accomplished this in spades. Green created far more rugged, authentic, Donald Ross-style bunkers, undoing the over-manicured, cookie-cutter style of Jones and Fazio. Avoiding the fairway and green-side bunkers this week will be an absolutely pivotal aspect of course management and strategy this week.

A new par-three fifth hole was created, and the par-four sixth hole, one of the great two-shooters in America, was extended. Six now plays as a brutally long par four that curves around Allen’s Creek and rivals the 17th and 18th holes as the hardest on the course.

Over 600 trees were removed, as the course had really become overcrowded with mature oaks. This totally opens up the angles of the golf course, almost creating a situation similar to a Winged Foot, or even a Torrey Pines, where the consequence of a miss two yards off the fairway is not that dissimilar from the consequence of a miss 30 yards off the fairway. Now without the claustrophobic nature of heavily tree-lined fairways, big misses will actually have far more options for recovery shots, giving more freedom for longer hitters to bomb away at will, knowing they will still possess an angle of attack even with a big miss.

A switch from a Bent/Poa blend to pure Bent-grass on the putting surfaces was also executed. This was an incredibly smart move, as the course now relies far less on moisture to create consistent green speeds. There just isn’t as much inherent firmness with Poa.

Green removed an incredibly unnatural little pond on the 15th hole that was a rather unfortunate Fazio creation in the late 70s. The hole now essentially plays to a postage stamp green surrounded by shaved run-off areas on all sides. Watching players recover from poorly struck short irons will now feature an incredible amount of intrigue.

If I was to provide one critique of Green’s work, I would still have made the fairways wider. They still aren’t quite as wide as how Ross originally intended, and in my opinion, wider fairways would actually open up more strategic options. Major championships always fall into the trap of feeling like they need to narrow everything. The fairways are really no less narrow than they were for the 2013 PGA Championship, there are just hundreds fewer trees. I would have still opened them up even more to embody the original Ross essence, but the PGA still has trepidation about creating too easy of a golf course. It would create more strategic value off the tee, but I cannot entirely quibble with the move.

In summary, the technical, accuracy-over-power-style test that Jason Dufner won in 2013 no longer remains. Oak Hill is a completely different golf course now both visually and in functionality. It’s 200 yards longer, with close to 1,000 fewer trees, there’s way more undulation and character to these greens, far more of a penalty for hitting it into bunkers, and it now resembles far more of a complete and modern test, similar to what we saw at Southern Hills last year. The PGA nailed it with Southern Hills last year, and I would hope they build upon that success in how they set up Oak Hill. Southern Hills rewarded a balanced attack, not just premier driving ability, no premier iron play. Players were completely tested on and around the greens as well. While Oak Hill does have the potential to turn into more of a driving contest than Southern Hills, the lack of rain in the area leading up to the tournament leaves me feeling optimistic that under somewhat firm and fast conditions, this iconic venue will really shine. Speaking of the weather…

Weather 

At any major championship, the weather is always an angle worth paying attention to. Last year at Southern Hills, we saw a fairly large wave advantage due to the wind, and while the wind is never going to play as much of a role in Northern New York as it does in Tulsa, Oklahoma, how much rain this course has gotten leading into tournament week is going to play a major factor. Rochester is a very northernly location for a PGA Championship that is being hosted in May. Since it does not look like there be a ton of rain during actual tournament week, the greens will still be firm and fast, but I do believe it will be a challenge to get the fairways baked out. For the record, softer fairways should play more into the hands of longer hitters. Especially with incredibly chilly mornings, this golf course is going to play long. Those who have a high carry distance will really be able to reap the rewards of softer fairways and bunker positions. They may be able to potentially cut the corner on some of the dogleg holes and carry many of the fairway bunkers that are placed in the 280 to 315-yard zone.

Essentially, the weather the prior week of the tournament has been beautiful, which should help dry up the course from a wet March and April. This is a good thing. Oak Hill is not a golf course that is ever going to fully bake out and play as firm and fast as a Southern Hills, Shinnecock, or Los Angeles Country Club. I still believe that Oak Hill’s fairways will not necessarily be soft, but we won’t be seeing 350-yard drives this week either. We are really lucky that it looks like there is more sunshine in the forecast for the prior weekend, which should really firm up the greens. The firmer the golf course that we get, the less of a driving contest this championship will be. Expect temperatures in the mid- to high-40s in the mornings, which will undisputedly be a grind. It certainly warms up later in the day, but the simple guide I would follow is: if the golf course plays wet, favor long driving more, and if the golf course plays firm, favor iron play more. This is obviously something to monitor as we get closer to Thursday, but I’m optimistic that we will not see the wet golf course that Steve Bamford and I discussed as a possibility on our recent podcast.

Trends and Angles 

• Northeast Experience: As my recent podcast guest, Steve Bamford, was keen to point out, the last seven winners of Northeast major championships already had a proven track record in the area. Every single one of the Northeast major winners had previous wins or top-12 finishes in Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York, or Pennsylvania. For example, before winning the 2020 U.S. Open at Winged Foot, Bryson DeChambeau won the 2018 Dell Technologies Championship at TPC Boston and the 2018 Northern Trust at Ridgewood Country Club. Before Brooks Koepka won the 2019 PGA Championship at Bethpage, he won the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock and finished fourth at the 2016 PGA Championship at Baltusrol. Dustin Johnson might be the most prime example of Northeast excellence. Prior to winning the 2016 U.S. Open at Oakmont, he won the 2011 Barclays at Plainfield, the 2008 Turning Stone Championship in upstate New York, had six other top-10 finishes in the Northeast, and went onto win at TPC Boston in 2020 as well. Justin Rose, who won the 2013 U.S. Open at Merion, had already won the 2010 AT&T National at the Donald Ross-designed Aronimink and had also boasted five other top-10 finishes in the Northeast.
• Lead-in Form: I wrote about this on Masters week as well, but lead-in form is incredibly important at major championships. It is very rare for a player to not be in good form in the previous month before winning a major championship. Brooks finished fourth at the Byron Nelson in 2019 before winning the PGA at Bethpage. Collin Morikawa finished 20th with a 67/66 over the weekend at the FedEx St. Jude’s prior to winning the 2020 PGA at Harding Park. Justin Thomas finished fifth at the Byron Nelson prior to winning the 2022 PGA at Southern Hills. Of course, Phil Mickelson was the outlier, but he was still the first-round leader at the Wells Fargo prior to winning the 2021 PGA at Kiawah Island. 16 of the last 17 PGA Championship winners finished top-30 in their prior start leading in. 
• Tee-to-Green Form: Koepka, Thomas, Rory (twice), Dufner, and Kaymer all ranked in the top 10 in tee-to-green in their prior start to the PGA. 12 of the last 13 PGA winners ranked top-30 in tee to green in their prior start leading in, with Phil Mickelson of course being the outlier.

Stats 

• Off the Tee 
  • I expect Oak Hill to play similar off the tee to courses such as Torrey Pines and Winged Foot in the sense that a very wide miss and a narrow miss are penalized similarly. Since Green took out so many trees, wide misses will still present angles of attack into greens. Thus, longer players, like what we just saw at Winged Foot, may absolutely feast on this golf course, especially if it’s on the more wet side.
  • Will this PGA Championship be a driving contest? I’m not sure that I would go that far, as I thought the setup at Southern Hills rewarded a complete game. PGA Championships in general are still trending in the direction of longer and more difficult, almost closer to U.S. Open events, as opposed to previous iterations of PGA Championships that were won at 15 to 20 under par.
  • 17 of the last 18 PGA Championships featured a winner averaging more than 290 yards off the tee. Especially more recently, Justin Thomas (twice), Phil Mickelson, Brooks Koepka (twice), Jason Day, and Rory McIlroy (twice) all ranked toward the top on the PGA Tour in driving distance.
  • Whereas the 2013 PGA Championship at Oak Hill favored accuracy over distance, I would expect the opposite this go around. The longest drivers of the ball in this field are Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young, Dean Burmester, Nicolai Hojgaard, Trey Mullinax, Min Woo Lee, Keith Mitchell, Wyndham Clark, Gary Woodland, and Jon Rahm. 
  • When it comes to major championships, direct lead-in form is incredibly important, and I still want to identify the players that are driving the ball the right now. The best players off the tee over the last two months have been Patrick Cantlay, Scottie Scheffler, Hayden Buckley, Gary Woodland, Viktor Hovland, Keith Mitchell, Cameron Young, Rory McIlroy, Dean Burmester, and Corey Conners. 
  • While Oak Hill is not the longest major championship test we’ve encountered, and its character is not necessarily defined by length, I still want to identify the best drivers of the ball on long golf courses. Those players are Rory McIlroy, Keith Mitchell, Viktor Hovland, Corey Conners, Cameron Young, Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Matt Fitzpatrick, Xander Schauffele, and Tyrrell Hatton. 

• Approach
  • I mapped out every hole at Oak Hill based on course conditions, carry distance, expected strategy, and my experience playing it a few months ago to find the most common expected approach shot distributions for the PGA Championship and here’s what I came up with:
    • As expected, 33% of approach shots come from 200 yards-plus, which is well above the Tour average of 22.9%. 22% of approach shots come from 175-200 yards, which is also healthily above the Tour average of 175-200 yards. You’re not going to see a ton of mid-irons on this golf course, far fewer than what we saw at Southern Hills, as only 22% of shots are expected to come from between 125 and 175 yards. The distance of 100-125 could account for as much of 17% of approach shots, compared to the Tour average of 11.8%. Ultimately, mid to long irons are still the name of the game, with over 50% of approach shots at Oak Hill coming from over 175 yards. The best long-term players in this field from over 175 yards are Gary Woodland, Xander Schauffele, Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa, Tom Hoge, Adam Scott, Shane Lowry, Kurt Kitayama, Harold Varner III, and Rory McIlroy. 

• Around the Green 
  • Similar to Southern Hills, the bunkers at Oak Hill are HAZARDS. Andrew Green has spoken extensively about this in interviews, and I also discussed this on my recent podcast, but elite bunker players are going to have a major leg up this week given the fact that sand save percentage will be far lower than Tour average. Oak Hill will accentuate bunker play as a skill like few other courses on Tour. The best long-term bunker players in this field are Matt Kuchar, Patrick Reed, Jordan Spieth, Si Woo Kim, Ben Griffin, Justin Rose, Patrick Rodgers, Sungjae Im, Maverick McNealy, and Andrew Putnam. 
  • With the addition of far more closely mown chipping areas and an expected low greens-in-regulation percentage, general around-the-green play will also be essential. The best overall around-the-green players this year have been Brendon Todd, Justin Thomas, Matt Kuchar, Ben Griffin, Chris Kirk, Tommy Fleetwood, Sungjae Im, Jimmy Walker, Danny Willett, and Beau Hossler. 

• Putting 
  • I have a fairly low weight on putting this week, as major championships are often defined as a complete tee-to-green test. I looked back at strokes gained distributions from previous majors at Bethpage and Winged Foot, and the amount of strokes gained via the flat-stick was always healthily lower than Tour average. While there is definitely some more character to these greens than what we saw in 2013, I will still be fairly underweight on putting. Members have raved about the trueness of new pure Bent-grass putting surfaces, and players that hit their lines should see putts roll in. The best Bent-grass putters in this field over the last three years have been Patrick Cantlay, Brendon Todd, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Beau Hossler, Maverick McNealy, Alex Noren, Rory McIlroy, Sam Burns, Justin Rose, and Harris English. 

• Scoring Stats 
  • Of course, at any major championship, especially one like this that I expect to play very difficult, I want to focus on recent major form and those who raise their baseline in difficult scoring conditions. Oak Hill is a “take your medicine” golf course. I do not actually believe that there is one true birdie hole on the entire property. Both the par fives are over 615 yards, and 13, the second three-shotter, will be truly difficult to reach in two by even the longest of players. The “drivable” par-four 14th hole is absolutely devious and I would expect many players to actually lay up to around 100 yards. Oak Hill is a golf course about playing smart, conservative golf, avoiding big mistakes, and making a bunch of pars. The players that have performed the best in difficult scoring conditions are Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Jon Rahm, Matt Fitzpatrick, Cameron Smith, Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im, Justin Thomas, and Shane Lowry. 
  • The other type of course conditions that I wanted to look at were long golf courses with narrow fairways, ala Winged Foot, Torrey Pines, Bay Hill, Bethpage, etc. Oak Hill is the type of golf course that I have written about a lot as it relates to power off the tee. There is a distinctive strategy to driving at golf courses of this nature, and the combination of long holes with narrow fairways is certainly not for every player. Those in the field who actually increase their advantage on these types of courses include Corey Conners, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Gary Woodland, Tony Finau, Xander Schauffele, Max Homa, Paul Casey, Emiliano Grillo, and Tom Hoge. 

• Comp Courses/Course History 
  • While the Oak Hill that we saw in 2013 is a far cry from the test that players will face this week, it’s still valuable to note the players that made the trek to Rochester in 2013 and performed strongly. The players in this field that finished in the top 25 at the 2013 PGA Championship are Adam Scott, Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, Zach Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Hideki Matsuyama, Keegan Bradley, Matt Kuchar, and Webb Simpson. 
  • Aronimink is another Donald Ross design and host of the 2010 and 2011 AT&T National and the 2018 BMW Championship. Justin Rose won the latest AT&T National and Keegan Bradley reigned supreme at the 2018 BMW Championship. Aronimink is another Donald Ross, championship, Bent-grass, Northeast golf course. The players in this field who have been best at Aronimink across those three tournaments are Justin Rose, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Webb Simpson, Tony Finau, Keegan Bradley, Tommy Fleetwood, Francesco Molinari, Rickie Fowler, and Jason Day. 
  • Bethpage Black, host of the 2019 PGA Championship, is a course that I am extremely found of as a reference point for Oak Hill, as discussed on my latest podcast. Bethpage Black featured a similar climate to what I would expect this week in Rochester with chilly mornings, and from a golf course perspective, it features elevated, small putting surfaces surrounded by bunkers and narrow driving areas lined by thick rough and menacing fairway bunkers. Both Oak Hill and Bethpage Black are proper Northeastern tests. The best players in this field at Bethpage Black have been Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Matt Wallace, Patrick Cantlay, Emiliano Grillo, Gary Woodland, Jason Day, Brooks Koepka, Adam Scott, and Shane Lowry. 
  • Winged Foot, host of the 2020 U.S. Open, is another golf course that received a significant restoration, removing many trees, opening up sight lines and angles, and creating less of a consequence for larger misses. As a result, the leaderboard was populated by proper ball-strikers and absolute bombers. Winged Foot features front-to-back sloping greens, deep bunkers, thicker rough, narrow fairways, Northeastern climate, and similar agronomy. The elements are all there. The players in this field that finished in the top 25 at Winged Foot are Bryson DeChambeau, Harris English, Xander Schauffele, Dustin Johnson, Webb Simpson, Tony Finau, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Zach Johnson, Patrick Reed, Viktor Hovland, Hideki Matsuyama, Paul Casey, Alex Noren, Sungjae Im, Taylor Pendrith, Jon Rahm, Joaquin Niemann, Thomas Pieters, and Brendon Todd. 
  • Finally, while I do not believe that Oak Hill will feature as firm and fast fairways as Southern Hills, nor do I believe there is as much color or character to the green-sites, both restorations were modeled in a similar vein to create modern major championship tests with wider driving corridors and the inclusion of far more closely-mown collection areas surrounding the greens. I would not be surprised if some of the same players who excelled at Southern Hills also had their fair share of success this week at Oak Hill. The players in this field who finished in the top 25 at Southern Hills are Justin Thomas, Mito Pereira, Cameron Young, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, Chris Kirk, Rory McIlroy, Seamus Power, Brendan Steele, Tom Hoge, Abraham Ancer, Xander Schauffele, Davis Riley, Cameron Smith, Lucas Herbert, Max Homa, Tyrrell Hatton, Justin Rose, Webb Simpson, Talor Gooch, Sam Burns, Joaquin Niemann, Aaron Wise, Rickie Fowler, and Shane Lowry. 

Model 

• Off the Tee (20%)
  • Recent Off the Tee Form (7%)
  • Strokes Gained: Off the Tee on Long Golf Courses (5%)
  • Driving Distance (8%)
• Approach (30%)
  • Recent Strokes Gained Approach (17%)
  • Proximity 175-200 yards (5%)
  • Proximity 200 yards-plus (8%)
• Around the Green (13%)
  • Recent Strokes Gained Around the Green (5%)
  • Sand Saves (8%)
• Putting (8%)
  • Strokes Gained Putting: Bent-grass
• Scoring Stats (12%)
  • Strokes Gained Total: Difficult Scoring Conditions (7%)
  • Strokes Gained Total: Long Golf Courses with Narrow Fairways (5%)
• Comp Courses/Course History (17%)
  • Oak Hill (4%)
  • Bethpage Black (4%)
  • Winged Foot (3%)
  • Aronimink (3%)
  • Southern Hills (3%)

Top 20 

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Xander Schauffele
3. Jon Rahm
4. Tony Finau
5. Justin Thomas
6. Viktor Hovland
7. Patrick Cantlay
8. Sungjae Im
9. Max Homa
10. Joaquin Niemann
11. Gary Woodland
12. Shane Lowry
13. Collin Morikawa
14. Harold Varner III
15. Dustin Johnson
16. Jason Day
17. Tyrrell Hatton
18. Jordan Spieth
19. Justin Rose
20. Scottie Scheffler