By Andy Lack

The 2023 Open Championship Final Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership 

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. Already this season, the Houston Open featured a 2.5 stroke wave advantage! As soon as we flipped the calendar to January, weather played a massive role in the Sony Open as well. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

I’ll start by saying this, I’m never against wave stacking at an Open Championship in both directions. No, I’m not seeing much in terms of a clear and definitive advantage for either tee time group this week, but that doesn’t mean things won’t change. It’s also important to keep in mind that every time goes successively off the first hole at the Open. There is no real split between tee times like we see at most other PGA Tour events. For what it’s worth, I would not be surprised if there is a slight edge for those teeing off late on Thursday and early on Friday. It’s probably not enough for me to completely change my player pool, but it could be a worthy tiebreaker. I do believe that the conditions on Friday afternoon will potentially be a half shot more challenging than Thursday afternoon. Friday afternoon has wind gusts up to 20mph, and the course will have had another day to firm up. Again, this could equate to a 0.2 stroke advantage, or a 0.8 stroke advantage. I certainly prefer players that can avoiding playing late on Friday afternoon, but with the fickleness of weather in the British Isles, I’m hesitant to take a hard and firm stance. My suggestion would be to get as many guys as you can that are off early on Friday in your player pool, but don’t let it force you off your favorite plays either. The tournament really gets spicy (from a weather standpoint) after the cutline.

Core Four 

• Brooks Koepka, $10,400 (Projected ownership: 12.0%): It pains me to say this, but when considering price and ownership, Brooks Koepka is objectively the best DraftKings play of the big four. My plan when pricing came out was to put Rory in 50% of my lineups and Scheffler in the other 50% of my lineups. By the time we got to Monday night, I had shifted my plan to choose one of Rory or Scheffler, and play Jon Rahm in the other 50% of my lineups. By Wednesday morning, I once again changed tunes and swapped Jon Rahm for Brooks Koepka. Talk about paralysis by analysis. Yet I just kept going back to not understanding why Brooks was $800 cheaper than Rahm. In a vacuum, I like Rahm a little bit more at this tournament than Brooks, and maybe even with an $800 difference, I would have still played Rahm if he was significantly lower owned than the recent PGA Championship winner. Yet I’m just not sure I see it shaking out that way. I still believe that it’s a foregone conclusion that one of Rory McIlroy or Scottie Scheffler will be relevant in this tournament late on Sunday, and one of them will be in 50% of my lineups. Truth be told, I still haven’t figured out which one I’m going to play, and I’m going to wait until the 11th hour to see if there is any late movement in ownership to help guide me. I’ve already blown enough air in the tires of Rory and Scheffler this week anyway, so I’ll use this unique opportunity that we have to highlight Koepka from a DraftKings standpoint. I am not remotely a Brooks fan, but it’s easy for me to remove bias from the equation and identify a mis-price. Brooks is two thousand dollars cheaper than Scottie Scheffler. That’s the difference between Corey Conners and something named Dan Bradbury. It’s the difference between Joaquin Niemann and John Daly. Even an $800 difference between Brooks and Rahm is egregious. That’s the difference between Justin Rose and Adam Schenk! Joaquin Niemann and Brendon Todd! I could go on. Do I think that Brooks is going to win his second major in three starts? Probably not, but I also didn’t think he was going to win at Oak Hill. He’s more than earned the benefit of the doubt in terms of his chances at any major, including the Open Championship, where he has a 50% top-10 rate in eight starts. He came out a little flat at Los Angeles Country Club, but that was understandable given the recent redemptive victory at the PGA. I’m sure he’ll have no problem with the white lines at Hoylake this time around. Brooks doesn’t have the best record at courses that favor accuracy over distance off the tee like TPC Sawgrass, but a recent third at LIV Valderrama, an incredibly quirky golf course that penalizes misses, is a worthy feather in his cap. Even so, I’m feeling more strongly by the day that Liverpool will probably end up being far more driver heavy than we had originally expected. If I’m wrong, Brooks can still win this tournament off the tee with his discipline and mid to long iron play. I trust his game plan this week more than maybe any other player in this field, and this tournament likely requires more thought and strategy than any of the other majors. At the end of the day, the pricing at the top this week is just plain silly, and I can’t in good faith recommend the three players above him when taking into consideration such a grotesque salary discrepancy.

• Patrick Cantlay, $9,900 (Projected ownership: 11.0%): I don’t particularly root for Patrick Cantlay either, but I do seem to be a lot higher on him as a golfer at majors than consensus right now. I’m more of a fan of Xander, but I still believe Cantlay is a better player and that he will have a better career when it’s all said and done. I think many struggle with Cantlay as their first man in at majors because they feel that they are losing win equity. Cantlay is now shifting towards a price where he does not need to be your first man in, and I have 50% of my shares of him paired with Brooks, and the other 50% paired with Rory or Scheffler. I still believe the eight-time PGA Tour winner has an incredibly high floor, and I am completely enamored by his course fit. Of the elite players, Cantlay might just be the most purely accurate driver of the ball outside of Collin Morikawa. And Cantlay is a lot longer than Morikawa too. Even in softer conditions, I still believe that strategic off the tee play will be absolutely essential at Hoylake. Cantlay is also the best pure putter of the elite players as well. I’m happy to throw away his missed cut at the Scottish Open away, as he still gained strokes in both ball-striking categories. 14 top-30 finishes in 16 starts this year speaks to a player that is only a few minor details away from putting it all together in a given week.

• Joaquin Niemann, $7,500 (Projected ownership: 4.5%): I’ve got to admit that Joaquin Niemann was the one player I was truly bummed to see depart to LIV. I think Niemann could have been a star, and maybe he will still be one. People forget how young he is. Since going to wire to wire at Riviera in front of Tiger, the young Chilean has essentially evaporated from the mainstream golf consciousness. I think that could change this week. I still believe that Niemann is one of the absolute best drivers of the ball in the world, and he is incredibly accurate for how long he is. Over the last three years, no one has gained more strokes off the tee on short, positional golf courses that Joaquin Niemann. Even if Liverpool turns into a more driver heavy test, the two-time PGA Tour winner is still one of the longer players in the field as well. Niemann is a rock solid mid to long iron player, a plus putter, and possess an above average short game as well. I tend to think that the top-end LIV players such as Cam Smith and Bryson DeChambeau are over-priced this week, while the mid to low tier LIV players are incredibly under-valued. Henrik Stenson and Louis Oosthuizen just missed my core four, but I am incredibly high on them as value plays too. Ultimately, I think Niemann is going to make some real noise this week, and if you have a few extra dollars laying around, he can be found as high as 125/1.

• Si Woo Kim, $7,300 (Projected ownership: 8.0%): If we are in the business of identifying players in the low $7K range that could come out of nowhere to win a big golf tournament, Si Woo Kim and Louis Oosthuizen would be at the top of my list this week. Yes, Si Woo did win the Players out of left field in 2019, another golf course that is characterized by its hazards and forces players to make strategic decisions off the tee. For some reason, Si Woo has the reputation of an aggressive gunslinger, but the reality of the situation is that he is one of the most accurate drivers of the ball in the world. It should not come as a surprise that he has had so much success at accuracy biased courses such as Sawgrass, Harbour Town, and Sedgefield. Kim ranks third in this field in driving accuracy this season, and ranks top-30 off the tee both on short, positional golf courses, and firm golf courses. Another feather in Si Woo’s cap is that he is one of the best bunker players in this entire field, and he also ranks second in this field in proximity 175-200 yards, a key approach range this week. My numbers suggest that Si Woo is the best value play on this entire board, and I legitimately believe that he provides a much higher floor than people want to give him credit for. 15 made cuts, with 11 top-30 finishes in 19 starts this year is an incredibly consistent run of golf for someone priced this low, and Si Woo will be both a staple of my builds, and a main entrant in my single entry lineup this week.

Chalk Report 

• $10K: I’ve gone back and forth on Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy all week, and I still haven’t solidified my selection. I think if Scheffler and Rory had typical DraftKings prices, they would both be in the 25% zone. Maybe even higher. Yet since they are exorbitantly (and properly) priced at $12.5K and $11.9K, I have Scheffler coming in at 18% and Rory at 20.5%. I think there’s a school of thought that Rory will still be higher, and maybe my estimate is conservative. Yet I still see Rahm’s number steadily creeping up, and I wouldn’t rule out a late move on Brooks. Even myself, who was looking for every reason not to play Brooks, found my way to the five-time major champion as the week progressed. I would not be surprised if others followed a similar thought process. I have Rahm coming in at an even 13%, and Brooks at 12%. Hovland probably ends up in the same zone. I currently have the recent Memorial champion at 13% as well, which is more than fair. He was probably my toughest cut this week. Just can’t play them all! There is certainly some leverage to be had at the top at the Open, which we can’t say every week. I can’t remember the last time we have seen Xander Schauffele in the single digits, but here we are. I have him currently at 9.5%, and there’s a chance he might end up a touch lower if there is a bit more of a late movement on Brooks or Hovland. This would normally be a smash spot on Xander, but I’m just struggling with him this week. If I had to worry more about ownership, I’d probably have a tougher time fading Xander at the top. My selections are so unique in the eights and sevens (not a single player in the double digits!) that I would rather eat it with the higher owned Rory or Scheffler. No one wants a piece of Cam Smith this week, and I understand why. I have a difficult time believing that he can drive the ball well enough on this golf course to win, and if you’re playing someone at $10.7K, you better believe they can win. If Smith wants to lose five strokes off the tee and gain 12 strokes putting, just like he did at the Players, than so be it.

• $9K: The $9K range is loaded this week, so let’s sift through it. I currently have Tommy Fleetwood as the highest owned player in this range at 18%, which is a shame. I’m a huge fan of Tommy this week. He was my pick to win this event in December, but I’ll find exposure to him in other ways. Tommy is my one and done pick in the only league I have a real chance in. After Fleetwood, I have Tyrrell Hatton coming in at 16.5%, Collin Morikawa at 14.5%, and Rickie Fowler at 14%. If I had to make a guess on which of those players catches some late steam, I would probably roll with Rickie. So many folks have had him earmarked at this tournament as soon as he started showing form, and he would have been perpetually over-owned in this spot even without the prior the success at Hoylake. Next up, we have this group of Dustin Johnson (13%), Shane Lowry (12.5%), and Patrick Cantlay (11%) in the low teens, and the aforementioned Cantlay is my preferred option here by a healthy margin. I actually think that both Johnson and Lowry are a tad over-priced, particularly Lowry, and I have little to no interest in either. That leaves Jordan Spieth, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Cameron Young, who will all comfortably be in the single digits. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I currently have Spieth at 6.5% at an Open Championship, a tournament that feels created for him. Could Spieth catch some late steam? Certainly, but the chatter on him this week has been incredibly muted coming off back to back missed cuts at two courses that I thought were very strong fits for his style of play. Fitzpatrick gave a fairly concerning quote about his expectations this week, and I would be surprised if he crossed 6%. I think people just need to see a little more from Cameron Young. One solid finish at the John Deere probably isn’t enough to justify a $9K price tag, and folks also seem to realize that Liverpool is a far different style of test than St. Andrew’s. I do think it’s worth taking a chance on one of those three however, and I would definitely choose Spieth.

• $8K: As is often the case in the $8K range, there’s a ton of opportunity. With a fair amount of love for a stars and scrubs approach given the price tag on Rory and Scheffler, there are a number of players in this range with appealing ownership. My prediction for the highest owned player in this range is Justin Rose, but I have him coming in closer to 13% now, which is more than fair. I have zero understanding of why he is $1,100 cheaper than Shane Lowry. Rose has had a far better season, and checks nearly every single box this week. I was initially prepared to fade him at 17 or 18%, but I would now be fairly surprised if he got there. Tony Finau, despite being in very questionable form, will still come in around 12%. It’s simply a lower price on Finau than we are used to seeing at majors, and he does have an incredibly strong Open record. I have Wyndham Clark and Tom Kim, two very different players, both coming in at 10%. After that, there are six other players in the single digits. I’m playing three of them, and I would suggest at least deploying one or two. I’ll rank them in terms of preference:

1. Hideki Matsuyama (6%)
2. Sungjae Im (4%)
3. Justin Thomas (5%)
4. Max Homa (9.5%)
5. Bryson DeChambeau (6.5%)
6. Sam Burns (6.5%)

One, if not multiple of these players will finish top-15 this week, and every single one of them can work with all style of builds. I’m contractually obligated to no longer tout Justin Thomas, but the real ones know he’s still dangerous this week.

• $7K: There are a few objectionable numbers in this range, but I still don’t have a player currently crossing the 15% threshold. The highest owned player in this range will be… Corey Conners (14%)? The Canadian does have a sneaky strong major record, and the prevailing narrative this week does appear to be that accuracy is the name of the game. Keeping on with the plodder types, I have Brian Harman (11%) and Denny McCarthy (10.5%) as near locks to clear double digits. I far prefer Harman to Denny, but I’ll gladly pass on both to roll with the slightly lesser owned Russell Henley and Si Woo Kim. Once we get past Conners, Harman, and Denny, I’m not sure another player in this range will clear 10%. Adam Scott, Min Woo Lee, Patrick Reed, and Si Woo Kim should all come in around six to nine percent, but there’s still nothing to be overly concerned about. I’m a big fan of Gary Woodland, Chris Kirk, and Sepp Straka at the bottom of this range, Keegan, Neiman, and Henley in the middle, and my “Mega Mind I Don’t Recommend You Do This But Here Goes Nothing Play Of the Week” is… Jason Day.

• $6K: The one real name that you need to know in this range is Robert MacIntyre. I have the recent runner-up finish at the Scottish Open coming in at a whopping 13.5%. Of course, pricing came out before the Ryder Cup hopeful made his Sunday charge in Scotland, so this is far from surprising. If pricing came out on Monday morning, Bobby Mac would surely be in the low $7K range with the Denny McCarthy’s, Si Woo Kim’s, and Brian Harman’s of the world. I’ve got pretty much zero interest in MacIntyre given his popularity, and I would much rather hitch my wagon to Jordan Smith. The DP World Tour stalwart will certainly be the second most popular player in this range, but I still have him in the six to seven percent zone. There is still enough of a population playing this week that have zero idea who he is, or what the DP World Tour is, for that matter. A few other names that will be more popular than the players priced around them include Louis Oosthuizen, Alexander Bjork, Emiliano Grillo, Padraig Harrington, Andrew Putnam, Daniel Hillier, Ewen Ferguson, Marcel Siem, and Matthew Southgate. I’ve been driving the Oosthuizen and Stenson bandwagon pretty hard this week, but I would imagine a large population of golf fans probably believe that both are retired. Southgate seems to have gotten a lot of chatter in the podcast world as well, but similar to Smith, don’t let that fool you into believing that he will be anything higher than four or five percent.