By Andy Lack

The 2023 PGA Championship Final Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership 

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. Already this season, the Houston Open featured a 2.5 stroke wave advantage! As soon as we flipped the calendar to January, weather played a massive role in the Sony Open as well. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

Much has been made about the weather this week, and takes have been coming in from all angles. I find myself straddling the fence on this. I’m really not seeing much of a wave advantage in either direction across the first two days. Thursday will be colder, but Friday will be warmer. Neither the morning nor afternoon looks to have a significant advantage. The one point that I will add is that I was expecting at least a bit of rainfall over the course of these past three days leading into Thursday, and there has been none. This should make the course play about as firm as it can, providing more run out in the fairways, and placing less of an emphasis on distance, and more on precise iron play, if anything.

Core Four

• Rory McIlroy, $10,700 (Projected ownership: 13.5%): At this stage of the week, what left is there for me to say about Rory McIlroy? I played Oak Hill at the end of last August, and the the first thing I thought walking off the course was that Rory McIlroy was going to win the PGA Championship here. When I started diving into the golf course in December, I doubled down. When I really dove into the golf course a few weeks ago, I trippled down. When I found out that he was going to be significantly cheaper and lower owned than Rahm and Scheffler, and that public sentiment was generally down on him, I quadrupled down. It’s not a bulletproof case. I’m not entirely sure where his golf game is at. I’m not entirely sure where his mental game is at. I don’t know how to feel about his Tuesday press conference. I wish that he didn’t say things like, “My career is a success if I never win again.” Really? Considering you are the most talented player we’ve seen since Tiger Woods, do you really not think you’ve underachieved a bit? When a quote like this gets juxtaposed with a player like Justin Thomas saying that he is extremely disappointed in his career, it’s difficult not to wish that there was a little more fire in Rory’s belly. With that being said, if I’m spin-zoning this, maybe this is his odd version of coming to peace with his shortcomings. Maybe he psyched himself out before the final round of the Open Championship. Before the 2023 Masters. Maybe there’s a little more Dustin Johnson in him this year. It was certainly the most Dustin Johnson-esque press conference I’ve ever heard him give. Maybe Rory has reached the “there are more important things than golf” stage of his career. Or maybe it’s a cop-out to make himself feel better about his limitations. Truthfully, I don’t know the answer. I have my opinion, but as fun as psycho-analyzing Rory is, none of us can say that we definitely know. Only Rory, maybe Erika, and maybe Bob Rotella know the answer to those questions. At the end of the day, I remain steadfast that he is the most gifted golfer since Tiger and Phil. He is a transcendent driver of the golf ball. Maybe the best who has ever lived. If you’ve ever gotten a chance to watch him up close, you know how different it looks. His driver is incendiary. Oak Hill is a golf course that may just end up rewarding the best driver of the ball in the world. And while his towering high draws are the most inspiring and visually stimulating aspect of his skill-set, he’s been able to sustain his excellence for so long because of the well rounded nature of his game. McIlroy also ranks top-10 in this field in long iron play, top-25 in overall bunker and around the green play, top-10 in Bent-grass putting, second in difficult scoring conditions, and second ball-striking on long golf courses with narrow fairways. Oak Hill is the type of the golf course that you feel was built specifically for him. Just like Augusta was built for Nicklaus. Links style courses like Turnberry and Carnoustie were built for Tom Watson, and grand U.S. Open mental examination style tests were made for Ben Hogan, there’s something about big brawny, Northeastern parkland golf courses that just feel right with Rory McIlroy. Be it Congressional, Winged Foot, Bethpage, Aronomink, Firestone, TPC Boston, Royal St. George’s, the list goes on. While I cannot definitely say I know that this is the week where he wins his first major championship in nine years, it may the best venue for him. Ultimately, however this weeks turns out, it’s honor to root for him and cover him. Even his biggest detractors (there are many) would be lying to themselves if they suggested they were not compelled by his hunt to end the shocking major drought. I will be shamelessly compelled by whatever happens this week, but my blind faith is a constant reminder of why sports, and being irrationally and audaciously invested in something is so worthwhile.

• Hideki Matsuyama, $8,600 (Projected ownership: 9.5%): Max Homa and Dustin Johnson were also very serious contenders for this spot, but I’ll take the bit of the ownership discount and roll the dice with Hideki. The former Masters champion showed me more than enough last week at the Byron Nelson, with a solid, load managed T23 where he gained 4.6 strokes on approach. Despite taking some time off for an injury, Hideki has actually had a really sneakily strong season, with six top-25s in 10 starts, and he’s now gained over 2.5 strokes on approach in three straight starts. I have total faith on him on long, difficult, Northeastern Bent-grass tracks. He finished 19th at Oak Hill in 2013, 16th at Bethpage in 2019, 17th at Winged Foot in 2020 where he gained 12.6 strokes from tee to green, and 15th at Aronomink. Let’s add Firestone, TPC Boston, Ridgewood, Baltusrol and Plainfield to that mix as well. He’s performed admirably at all of them. For whatever reason, the Japanese superstar is perpetually under-owned, even in major championships where he is a very proven performer. He’s never missed a cut in a PGA Championship in his career, and is working off nearly a 50% top-10 percentage on these set-ups. This is an incredibly easy click for me this week.

• Shane Lowry, $8,300 (Projected ownership: 6.3%): As much as I love Tommy Fleetwood, and he will absolutely be on my betting card at both Los Angeles Country Club and Royal Liverpool, give me Shane Lowry at half the ownership every day of the week and twice on Sundays. I completely understand that his putting has been an abject disaster this year, but this is the least I have weighted putting in my model all year, so why not take my chances with a premier ball-striker that no one else is on? Lowry remains a top-seven long iron player in this entire field, and I completely trust his short game. His resume on long and difficult, Northeast, Bent-grass courses is incredibly strong as well, with a win at Firestone, a runner-up at Oakmont, and an eighth at Bethpage. Lowry never seems to inspire the type of enthusiasm I would expect at major championships, despite it being the perfect style of golf for his skill-set. I’m expecting cold and tough conditions at Oak Hill this week, and there are few players I trust more to weather the storm than the 2019 Open Champion.

• Joaquin Niemann, $7,900 (Projected ownership: 9.3%): I’ve actually always thought about Joaquin Niemann on this golf course, and I’m crazy enough to believe that he can actually win this tournament. I wish he was a touch cheaper, but he’s not being utilized very heavily. I have very little idea of what to make about LIV results, but back to back eighth-place finishes at Tulsa and Singapore ought to at least not be viewed in a negative light? What I’m more encouraged by is a 16th at the Masters where he gained 5.3 strokes off the tee, reminding us that the young Chilean is still one of the premier drivers of the ball in the world. It’s not just the driving ability that has me encouraged. Niemann boasts an incredibly well rounded game. He’s a rock solid iron player, and his short game and putting, especially on Bent-grass, is not a detriment either. There are a lot of solid options I enjoy in the high 7K range, including Keegan Bradley and Justin Rose. I don’t even mind a severely under the radar Corey Conners this week. Niemann remains my top option.

Chalk Report

• $10K: There are five players in the $10K range this week, and what immediately stood out to me is that Collin Morikawa is over-priced. I’m not sure anyone would have blinked if he was down at $9,400 with Justin Thomas, or even if him and JT were flipped. Of course, ownership reflects this sentiment, and Morikawa will provide significant leverage in this range. I have him coming in around 7%. Jon Rahm will be the highest owned player in this range, and should rival Xander Schauffele for the most popular player on the slate at around 21%. The fact that the highest owned player on the slate will be in the 21% zone is a sign of solid, fair pricing, and a fairly wide open championship. Bravo, DraftKings. After Rahm, of course comes Scottie Scheffler. I would not say that the shine is completely off Scheffler, as there is still overwhelming agreement that he is the second best player in the world, and is still in a class above Rory (at least right now). I have last year’s Masters champion coming in at around 17.5%. Next is the enigmatic Rory McIlroy, probably the most polarizing player in the field. I think he lands at 13%. There are enough people that are willing to get hurt again, and I have been told by many this week as well that I am an idiot. Brooks Koepka’s ownership is even more curious to me. No, he’s not exactly sneaking up on anyone, but he feels like a more popular outright bet than a DraftKings play? I’m actually surprised that the projections are coming in so low. I’d still put him at 13% right next to Rory, but if you asked me what I thought he would be entering the week, I would have had him closer to 16 or 17%. There is still enough anti-LIV sentiment that some will refuse to click him out of spite. Ultimately, neither him nor Rory are a bad way to start your lineups. The reason why ownership is palatable in this range is because as we are about to get into, some are foregoing the tens entirely and jamming in the Disgusting Brothers and Father Finau.

• $9K: What a fun and engaging range of golfers! I have Xander Schauffele as the highest owned in this range at around 20 to 21%, and the love certainly feels warranted. Schauffele is a walking top-10 in majors, is one of the most well rounded golfers in the world, and checks every statistical box we should be looking at this week. Patrick Cantlay and Tony Finau are both stat heroes as well, and it’s difficult to build much of a case against either other than, “they’ve never won a major before.” I have both coming in around 17%. I would put both Justin Thomas and Sungjae Im in the next zone at 14%. Both are not sneaking up on anyone, but I would be fairly surprised if either surpassed Cantlay or Xander. Here’s where things get interesting. Jordan Spieth, Cameron Smith, Cameron Young, and Viktor Hovland all should be between five and 11 percent. Chances are that at least one of them is going to top-10 in this tournament, despite there being more red flags (statistically) surrounding them than Xander, Cantlay, and Finau. I think the play is Hovland, but you could honestly sell me on any of the four. If forced to rank them, I’d actually go Hovland, Smith, Young, Spieth. I understand that folks have seen Jordan Spieth “swinging well” on the grounds. Even if I knew he was 100%, I would still have serious concerns about his course fit. On the other hand, I’m never going to talk you out of a three-time major winner at five percent. My recommendation would just be to at least utilize one. I don’t think any pools of Xander and Cantlay or Xander and Finau in this range are taking down any big contests. You can play all those guys, but don’t underestimate the leverage to be found with fairly elite players north of $9K this week. We don’t get that opportunity all the time.

• $8K: I absolutely love this range. Like all weeks, there are a tremendous amount of opportunities here due to general building strategy. My main lineups, as hinted at from my core four, will begin with Rory, skip the entire $9K range, and jam in at least two or three players in this zone. From an ownership perspective, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tyrrell Hatton, and Tommy Fleetwood lead the charge. I have all three in the 13 to 16% zone. That’s going to be a pass from me folks. Fitzpatrick and Fleetwood I completely understand. The Hatton love really surprises me. Up next is probably Jason Day, who I currently have at a modest 13%. After that, I have Dustin Johnson and Max Homa both barely clearing double digits. I like them both a lot. My favorite two plays in the range are still Hideki Matsuyama and Shane Lowry. Both will be in the single digits, with Hideki on the higher end (9%) and Lowry on the lower end (6%). The three players that I have not mentioned yet are Sam Burns, Sahith Theegala, and Tom Kim. I would say that all three carry some legitimate red flags, but I like I said with the lower owned options in the $9K, you bet your ass that one of these guys is going to pop. If I was forced to rank the sub $10K options in the eights, I would go: Lowry, Hideki, Burns, Kim, Sahith. I’d highly recommend finding room for one of them.

• $7K: If Xander and Cantlay are the Disgusting Brothers, what does that make Dick Fowler and Wyndy C? I would suggest that Fowler and Clark are two only real concerning options in this range, depending on how you feel about Gary Woodland and Si Woo Kim at the bottom. I’ll say this. I get the Fowler chalk, but Wyndham Clark might be the worst play on the entire slate this week. I will say that I love this high $7K range. Corey Conners, Joaquin Niemann, Adam Scott, Justin Rose, Keegan Bradley, Patrick Reed, and Talor Gooch will all fall between seven and 12 percent. Sure, why not. I’ll rank these guys too: Niemann, Rose, Bradley, Scott, Reed, Conners, Gooch. The bottom $7K chalk are the aforementioned Woodland and Si Woo Kim. Easy pass for me on both. Life’s too short. Bryson, Cameron Davis, Emiliano Grillo, and Harris English will all be half the ownership or lower. Easy game.

• $6K: I would not say that players are afraid to dive down here, but I would not be overly concerned with any $6K option. The players that will garner more ownership than their peers include Brendan Steele, Harold Varner III, Tom Hoge, Hayden Buckley, and Matt Kuchar. If forced to rank them, I would go: Varner, Steele, Hoge, Buckley, and Kuchar. None will cross seven percent.