2023 Wells Fargo Championship Course Breakdown: Quail Hollow
The Basics
- Course: Quail Hollow Club
- Location: Charlotte, North Carolina
- Designer: George Cobb (1961) with Tom Fazio (2013 & 2016 re-design)
- Length: Par 71; 7,521 yards
- Hazards: Water comes into play on 7 holes
- Fairways: 419 Bermuda-grass measuring 33 yards wide on average
- Rough: 419 Bermuda-grass over-seeded with Perennial Rye-grass
- Greens: 6,578 square foot greens on average featuring G12 Champion Bermuda-grass running 12.5 on the stimp
The Quail Hollow Club is a classical, big boy golf course that not only hosts the Wells Fargo Championship but has also been home to a recent PGA Championship and President’s Cup. The course has undergone a number of changes over the years that I believe are important to outline before we dive into the stats. Tom Fazio went to work on this course ahead of the 2017 PGA Championship. He created a new first hole by combining the old first hole and second hole. He also created a new par-three fourth hole and fifth hole by dividing the old fifth hole, which was previously a par five. The course now plays as a par 71. Another notable 2016 change was the switch from MiniVerde Bermuda-grass to Champion Bermuda-grass. Similar Champion Bermuda-grass greens can be found at Sedgefield Country Club, host of the Wyndham Championship, TPC Southwind, host of the FedEx St. Jude’s, and the Country Club of Jackson, host of the Sanderson Farms Championship.
Here are the winners of every individual stroke play event held at Quail Hollow since these changes:
- 2017 (PGA Championship): Justin Thomas (-8) over Francesco Molinari, Louis Oosthuizen, Patrick Reed (-6)
- 2018: Jason Day (-12) over Nick Watney, Aaron Wise (-10)
- 2019: Max Homa (-15) over Joel Dahmen (-12)
- 2021: Rory McIlroy (-10) over Abraham Ancer (-9)
For all intents and purposes, Quail Hollow is a big and brawny golf course that typically requires all world ball-striking. All four of the par threes play over par, and the sixth hole can come out to over 250 yards. Two par fours (eight and 14) can be drivable, but the other nine par fours all measure greater than 450 yards! Five different par fours measure over 480 yards, with the ninth hole measuring 505 yards and the 16th hole measuring 506 yards. This easily explains the massive plurality of approach shots coming from over 175 yards, and players will have very few wedges in their hands on this golf course. The par fives provide somewhat of a respite, all featuring over a 30% birdie rate, but with the 2016 renovation changing the first hole from a short par five to a long par four, birdie opportunities at Quail Hollow are few and far between. Only five holes feature over a 15% birdie rate, while 13 holes feature over a 15% bogey rate.
The George Cobb design is famous for its finishing stretch, dubbed the Green Mile. The 16th, 17th, and 18th holes make up three of the four hardest holes on the golf course, and all play a quarter-stroke over par. The 18th hole traditionally plays as the hardest hole on the course, playing to a 4.32 scoring average and featuring a 30% bogey rate and only a 7% birdie rate. I would be careful looking too closely at the President’s Cup as well, as that course was set up for far easier scoring than what we see year to year at the Wells Fargo.
Since the 2016 renovation, Quail Hollow has played as the second, eighth, and eighth-most difficult course on the PGA Tour schedule. The Cobb design fits firmly in the Bay Hill and Torrey Pines category of long, difficult, execution-style golf courses that generally provide little strategic value, but it remains a fine test of golf at the highest level. The roadmap at Quail Hollow is incredibly simple. Can you drive the ball a long way? Are you elite from 175 yards-plus? Is your short game passable when you inevitably miss greens? It should not come as any surprise that players such as Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, and Jason Day have all experienced such great success here, who are some of the most powerful drivers of the ball and long iron players with a solid short game to back it up. Let’s dive into the key metrics that matter.
Stats
- Off the Tee
- In 2021, 17.6% of strokes gained came off the tee, which is comfortably above the Tour average of 15.2%.
- Historic driving accuracy here is only 53.9% compared to the Tour average of 62%. Each of the last five years, it has ranked inside the top five in toughest fairways to hit, but that does not mean that Quail Hollow is a challenging course off the tee, nor does it mean that players will be deterred from hitting driver.
- In 2021, Quail Hollow ranked 30th out of 40 courses in strokes gained off the tee difficulty, and each of the last three years, it has ranked inside the top-10 easiest courses in strokes gained off the tee. The reason for this is that rough is very rarely grown out at this course, and there is not a great deal of trouble to the driving areas. It ranks right around middle of the pack in terms of the width of its fairways, but similar to courses such as Torrey Pines and Bay Hill, there’s not a great deal of strategy involved off the tee. Expect players to bomb away with driver on nearly every hole.
- Quail Hollow has historically ranked middle of the pack to the easier end in terms of missed fairway penalty. Last year, it ranked 28th out of 40 courses in rough penalty and 25th out of 40 courses in non-rough penalty. It ranked 15th in fraction of missed fairways that resulted in a penalty stroke.
- Since Fazio lengthened the course in 2019, each of the last four winners have averaged over 313 yards off the tee. Rory McIlroy (2021) and Justin Thomas (2017) both finished top-two in driving distance, and Max Homa and Jason Day both finished top-20. None of those four ranked inside the top-40 in driving accuracy. Rory finished nearly dead last in driving accuracy en route to victory in 2021. Rory McIlroy, Keith Mitchell, Viktor Hovland, Gary Woodland, Luke List, and Bryson DeChambeau all finished in the top 10. 2019 told a similar story, with Max Homa, Sergio Garcia, Keith Mitchell, Jhonattan Vegas, and Rory McIlroy all populating the top 10 of the leaderboard. In 2018, the distance advantage was even more pronounced as the top seven players on the leaderboard (Jason Day, Nick Watney, Aaron Wise, Bryson DeChambeau, Paul Casey, Phil Mickelson, and Peter Uihlein) all gained significantly to the field in driving distance.
- I write and talk often about how there are certain courses (Torrey Pines, Bay Hill, Muirfield Village) where players like Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy start on second base because they are such powerful drivers of the ball, and Quail Hollow certainly fits that bill. Players with a high carry distance will have a huge edge at Quail Hollow. The longest players off the tee in this field are Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young, Matthias Schmid, Cameron Champ, Wyndham Clark, Gary Woodland, Luke List, Trey Mullinax, Byeong Hun An, and Keith Mitchell.
- Quail Hollow is certainly a course where I feel comfortable suggesting that distance is more important than accuracy. This is not to say that shorter players can’t compete. We’ve seen Abraham Ancer, Patrick Reed, and Joel Dahmen, amongst others, all contend here, but their roadmap to success on this course is far more challenging. Being straight on this course helps, but I would call it more of a luxury than a necessity. I wanted to identify the players that give themselves a greater edge on driver-heavy, long golf courses. The best players in this field off the tee on these types of golf courses have been Keith Mitchell, Luke List, Cameron Young, Cameron Champ, Corey Conners, Viktor Hovland, Tyrrell Hatton, Sungjae Im, Matthew Fitzpatrick, and Emiliano Grillo.
- Approach
- In 2021, 33.1% of strokes gained at Quail Hollow came on approach, which is just below the Tour average of 34.7%.
- In 2021, Quail Hollow ranked seventh out of 40 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty, and each of the last three years, it has ranked as one of the most difficult approach courses on the PGA Tour schedule.
- Historic greens in regulation percentage is only 61% compared to the Tour average of 65.8%. In 2021, Quail Hollow featured the seventh-most difficult greens to hit on the PGA Tour, and each of the last three years, it has ranked inside the top 10 in lowest greens-in-regulation percentage.
- Quail Hollow is definitively a long iron course, with a whopping 31.5% of approach shots coming from 200-yards-plus. Another 22.2% come from 175-200 yards. All proximity buckets below 175 yards are comfortably below Tour average, but with over 50% of shots coming from over 175 yards, that’s the range that we want to be focusing on. The best players in this field from 175-yards-plus are Gary Woodland, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Shane Lowry, Max Homa, Kurt Kitayama, Cameron Davis, and Rory McIlroy.
- Even with how much distance helps at Quail Hollow, I would still weight long iron play more heavily than I would distance. The second shot at Quail Hollow remains more difficult than the first shot, and in both 2018 and 2019, every single one of the top 20 players on the leaderboard gained strokes on approach. In 2021, every single player gained over 3.5 strokes on approach.
- Around the Green
- In 2021, 17.7% of strokes gained came around the green, which is comfortably above the Tour average of 14.4%.
- In 2021, Quail Hollow ranked 22nd out of 40 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty, and each of the last three years, it has ranked middle of the pack in around the green difficulty.
- Quail Hollow is a challenging enough course with a low-enough greens-in-regulation percentage that around-the-green play cannot be ignored. With that being said, the degree of difficulty of the surrounding green-side areas will not be inflicting much fear into players. Last year, Quail Hollow ranked 22nd out of 40 courses in around-the-green difficulty from the fairway, 24th out of 40 courses in around-the-green difficulty from the rough, and 17th out of 40 courses in around-the-green difficulty from the bunkers. Each of the last three years, it has ranked easier than Tour average in all around-the-green metrics.
- Around-the-green play is certainly my lowest weight of the four major categories. In 2019, none of the top four players on the leaderboard gained over a stroke around the green. In 2020, three of the top five on the leaderboard lost strokes around the green, and in 2021, Keith Mitchell finished third while losing nearly three strokes around the green.
- Putting
- In 2021, 31.7% of strokes gained came with the flat-stick, which is comfortably below the Tour average of 35.6%.
- In 2021, Quail Hollow ranked sixth out of 40 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty, and each of the last three years, it has ranked inside the top eight in strokes gained putting difficulty.
- Quail Hollow features extremely quick, undulating Bermuda-grass greens. Last year, it ranked eighth out of 40 courses in putting difficulty inside five feet, 19th out of 40 courses in putting difficulty from five to 15 feet, and third out of 40 courses in putting difficulty from greater than 15 feet.
- Despite Quail Hollow being a course that does a fine job of separating elite from average tee-to-green play, every player in the top eight of the leaderboard in 2018 gained over four strokes putting. In 2019, Homa was rock solid from tee to green, but he won the tournament because he gained 9.9 strokes putting. Rory was even better from tee to green, but he still gained more strokes putting than in any other major category. This event is far from a putting contest, but it does test every aspect of a player’s game, including putting. Jason Dufner, Rory McIlroy, and Aaron Wise are the only three players across the last three years to finish top-10 at Quail Hollow while losing strokes putting.
- For what it’s worth, Fazio does create interesting and challenging greens with a fair amount of undulation. If this course is any similar in condition to how it played at last year’s President’s Cup, then it will feature some of the fastest greens on the PGA Tour. It should not come as a surprise the Quail Hollow annually ranks as one of the toughest lag putting courses on Tour. The best lag putters in this field are Eric Cole, Chris Kirk, Sam Ryder, Alex Noren, Michael Thompson, Mark Hubbard, Keegan Bradley, Tyrrell Hatton, Justin Suh, and Nicolas Echavarria.
- The best long-term Bermuda-grass putters in this field are Ben Taylor, Tyrrell Hatton, Sam Burns, Taylor Montgomery, Sam Ryder, Matt Kuchar, Alex Noren, Andrew Putnam, Ben Griffin, and Richy Werenski.
- Scoring Stats
- Quail Hollow remains one of the longest golf courses on Tour, so the biggest ancillary stat that I wanted to examine was how players have performed on other long golf courses. There are certain players such as Rory McIlroy that significantly raise their baseline on longer golf courses because their power off the tee. However, there are also players such as Patrick Reed who despite featuring below-average distance off the tee have no issues competing on long golf courses either. There are certain shorter players who really struggle on big ballparks such as Quail Hollow and Torrey Pines, but other shorter players do not lower their baseline as much as one would expect. The best players on courses over 7,400 yards have been Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Corey Conners, Collin Morikawa, Samuel Stevens, Sungjae Im, Viktor Hovland, Jordan Spieth, Chris Kirk, and Jordan Spieth.
- In each of the last three stroke play events as Quail Hollow, it has ranked as one of the eight hardest courses on the PGA Tour. Thus, I find it also valuable to identify the types of players that raise their baseline in more difficult scoring conditions. The players who gain the most strokes per round on harder golf courses are Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sungjae Im, Shane Lowry, Jordan Spieth, Viktor Hovland, Max Homa, Justin Thomas, and Xander Schauffele.
- Comp Courses/Course History
- Quail Hollow ranks 12th out of 40 courses in terms of the predictive nature of its course history. There is definitely some nuance to the green complexes here, and Quail Hollow tends to be kind to the same players over and over again, yet I do believe a player with a skill-set similar to Taylor Pendrith or Will Gordon can experience success here immediately. The players in this field who have been the best at Quail Hollow are Rory McIlroy, Jason Day, Justin Thomas, Rickie Fowler, Joel Dahmen, Gary Woodland, Keith Mitchell, Webb Simpson, Francesco Molinari, and Robert Streb.
- Torrey Pines and Bay Hill come to mind as the two most obvious reference points for Quail Hollow. There is a great deal of crossover on the leaderboards, and all three courses reward distance off the tee and feature a large plurality of long iron approach shots. The best players in this field at Torrey Pines have been Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa, Keegan Bradley, Adam Scott, Luke List, Xander Schauffele, Sungjae Im, and Justin Thomas. The best players in this field at Bay Hill have been Rory McIlroy, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Tyrrell Hatton, Francesco Molinari, Jordan Spieth, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Chris Kirk, Max Homa, and Kurt Kitayama.
- I would refrain from looking too heavily at Muirfield Village as a reference point. The main difference between Muirfield Village and Quail Hollow is that there is a massive penalty for missing the fairway, thus placing a greater emphasis on finding the short grass. The wider fairways at Muirfield Village actually creates more strategic value off the tee, whereas the fairways are so narrow at Quail Hollow, Torrey Pines, and Bay Hill that it simply turns into a long drive competition.
- Memorial Park and Jackson Country Club also have my attention as secondary comps. Memorial Park is another long and difficult golf course where distance and long iron play are the name of the game. There is certainly some more color to the green complexes at Memorial Park, as they were designed by Tom Doak, but both courses seem to attract the same types of players. Jackson Country Club is a far easier version of Quail Hollow, but it’s still a long golf course with nearly identical agronomy. The best players at Memorial Park have been Tony Finau, Sam Burns, Joel Dahmen, Tyson Alexander, Ben Taylor, Alex Smalley, Mackenzie Hughes, Adam Hadwin, Aaron Rai, and Scott Piercy. The best players at the Country Club of Jackson have been Denny McCarthy, Cameron Champ, Sam Burns, Corey Conners, Keegan Bradley, Mackenzie Hughes, Sungjae Im, Henrik Norlander, Kevin Streelman, and Garrick Higgo.
- Other tertiary courses that come to mind in terms of long and difficult golf courses where distance off the tee and long iron play is crucial include Olympia Fields, Winged Foot, and Doral.
Model
- Off the Tee (16%)
- Strokes Gained Off the Tee on Long Golf Courses (8%)
- Driving Distance (8%)
- Approach (30%)
- Strokes Gained Approach (14%)
- Proximity 175-200 yards (6%)
- Proximity 200 yards plus (10%)
- Around the Green (7%)
- Strokes Gained Around the Green (7%)
- Putting (14%)
- Strokes Gained Putting: Bermuda-grass (9%)
- Approach Putting (5%)
- Scoring Stats (16%)
- Strokes Gained Total: Long Golf Courses (8%)
- Strokes Gained Total: Difficult Scoring Conditions (8%)
- Comp Courses/Course History (17%)
- Quail Hollow (7%)
- Torrey Pines (3%)
- Bay Hill (3%)
- Country Club of Jackson (2%)
- Memorial Park (2%)
Top 20
- Rory McIlroy
- Xander Schauffele
- Tony Finau
- Max Homa
- Viktor Hovland
- Sungjae Im
- Patrick Cantlay
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Collin Morikawa
- Justin Thomas
- Jason Day
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Shane Lowry
- Keegan Bradley
- Jordan Spieth
- Cameron Young
- Tom Kim
- Gary Woodland
- Davis Riley
- Corey Conners
