By Andy Lack

The 2023 RBC Canadian Open Final Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership 

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. Already this season, the Houston Open featured a 2.5 stroke wave advantage! As soon as we flipped the calendar to January, weather played a massive role in the Sony Open as well. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

The weather looks fairly consistent to me across Thursday and Friday. A light but steady breeze should still provide ideal scoring conditions. I wouldn’t spend any efforts trying to capitalize on a wave advantage this week.

Core Four

• Shane Lowry, $9,400 (Projected ownership: 18.9%): From an ownership standpoint, I would not say that the discount that we are getting on Shane Lowry is sizable compared to Tyrrell Hatton, Matt Fitzpatrick, Justin Rose, and Tommy Fleetwood, but I do believe he has the potential to creep even lower than his projections as the day progresses. I simply haven’t heard a ton of Lowry buzz this week despite the absolute ball-striking tear that he is currently on. The former Open Championship winner is coming off a 16th at the Memorial where he gained two strokes off the tee, 3.3 on approach, and 1.1 putting. Lowry has now gained off the tee in six straight starts, and on approach in eight straight starts. Yet what’s most encouraging is that we are finally seeing signs of life from the flat-stick. Lowry has now gained strokes putting in back to back starts for the first time since last summer. Lowry is already elite at generating birdie looks for himself, ranking second in this field in birdies or better gained. I like him even better if the reports that we may see tougher conditions this week are correct. He also ranks 14th inside this field in proximity inside 100 yards, fourth in proximity from 200 yards plus, and 12th in total driving. Not to mention the fact that he also finished 10th last year at the Stanley Thompson designed St. George’s. Lowry is my favorite option of this big group of highly owned $9K players, and I feel strongly that his price and ownership is more than fair.

• Cameron Young, $9,300 (Projected ownership: 18.2%): I guess I’m just pushing back this week on the “This guy can’t get to 20-under narrative,” by selecting the two players in the $9K range with the most concerns about their scoring ability due to recent woes with the flat-stick. First of all, just because Cam Young has a few poor putting weeks, it does not mean that his game is not suited for easy golf courses. That should be blatantly obvious given his multiple wins on the Korn Ferry Tour at 18-under or lower on absolute bunny set-ups. Top-fives at the Country Club of Jackson and Detroit Golf Club, two of the ten easiest courses on the PGA Tour, further emphasize my point. Young ranks fourth in this field in opportunities gained, second in birdies or better gained, and sixth in easy scoring conditions. While the putter has been faulty recently, Young is still striking the ball incredibly well, and back to back missed cuts have done wonders for his price. I’m not sure I would call this a “buy low” spot, as Young is certainly not sneaking up on anyone given the dearth of options this week. Yet we have reached a scenario where he is cheaper than the likes of Corey Conners, Justin Rose, and Tommy Fleetwood, a reality that felt unfathomable just a few months ago. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if this is the spot where Young picks up his elusive first victory.

• Nick Taylor, $8,100 (Projected ownership: 10.9%): It feels a bit sacrilegious to not feature at least one native son this week, and Nick Taylor absolutely presents the most value of those north of the border. The Canadian has quietly put together a very strong season, including six top-30 finishes and runner-up finishes at both the Phoenix Open and Zurich Classic. He’s coming off a missed cut at the Charles Schwab where he still gained strokes in both ball-striking categories, and he now travels to a course that he should be extremely comfortable at. Taylor is one of the best players in this field inside 100 yards, and he also ranks top-20 in birdies or better gained. I have little doubt about his ability to thrive in easy scoring conditions, especially with wins at the Country Club of Jackson and Pebble Beach under his belt. I do believe that there are some great opportunities in the $8K range, and Taylor is my favorite of the bunch.

• Vincent Norrman, $7,500 (Projected ownership: 9.3%): Not that Vincent Norrman is completely sneaking up on anyone in this weak of a field, but we still might be relatively early on a player with absolutely elite power off the tee. The 25-year-old Swede is quietly hitting the ball incredibly well right now, gaining over five strokes ball-striking in three straight starts. Normann has also already recorded top-10s this season at the Zurich Classic and Byron Nelson, both easier scoring affairs. Norrman ranks top-15 in this field in birdies or better gained, and now travels to a golf course that he should be able to take full advantage of off the tee. Coming off a week at Colonial where he gained four strokes on approach, I would not be quick to underestimate his iron play either. I love players that consistently outscore their finishing position due to their birdie making ability, and I expect Norrman to absolutely eat on this golf course.

Chalk Report 

• $10K: The Rory McIlroy debate is certainly a fascinating one, and one that has unsurprisingly become a bit over-baked. If you think that Rory will be “mentally drained” or has “too much on his mind” to contend, you’ve lost the forest for the trees. He was statistically the best golfer in the world last year as the PGA Tour’s unofficial spokesperson in a state of utter turmoil and confusion. Yet now, in a time of resolution, this situation is just bit too much for him to play good golf? The PGA Tour’s top players have far more resolution in their financial and competitive situation going forward than the Tour’s middle and lower class. I have McIlroy in the 23% zone, which is just objectively too low for what he should be in this field. I actually believe it’s very popular that Tyrrell Hatton ends up more popular than the aforementioned McIlroy, which remains confounding to me. Nothing against Hatton, who is playing some phenomenal golf right now, but beginning lineups with a 24% Hatton is playing with fire unless you’re willing to fade much of the $9K chalk. I have no issue with a play on an 18% Sam Burns, who consistently outscores his finishing position and possesses a tremendous amount of upside every time he tees it up, particularly on this style of golf course. My expectation was to fade a 33% Mcllroy this week, but if this week mirrors the Memorial, and he is a robust ten percent less than he should be based on idiotic narratives, you’d be a fool not to at least consider him.

• $9K: I’m not the least bit surprised that nearly every player in this range will be popular outside of Sahith Theegala and Matt Kuchar at the bottom. The McIlroy ownership is lower than it should be, and I would argue that Burns is lower than he should be as well. This means that many are starting their lineups in the $9K range and jamming at least two or three of these options in. I believe that Matt Fitzpatrick, Corey Conners, Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry, and Cameron Young will all come in between 15 and 25%. Let’s rank them in projected ownership: Rose (24%), Lowry (19%), Fleetwood (18.5%), Young (18.5%), Fitzpatrick (18%), Conners (15%). I do believe that Justin Rose will emerge as the most popular option of this bunch, and I certainly understand why. I’ve been extremely impressed with Rose statistically recently, but I would far prefer to wait just one more week and feature him heavily in my U.S. Open lineups. The aforementioned Lowry and Young are my favorites of this bunch, with Fleetwood and Fitzpatrick being the choices I have the least interest in. If the Conners ownership continues to trend down, I believe that he is a very intriguing option as well. I do feel there is a sizable drop in talent once we get past Young to Theegala and Kuchar. Yet for what it’s worth, both Theegala and Kuchar should fall between seven and 11 percent.

• $8K: I do believe there are some very solid options in this range and that no player here will come in at an irresponsible number. Adrian Meronk, who I am a huge fan of this week as well, does have the potential to creep closer to 15%, but I have him capped around there. Both a 9.5% Keith Mitchell and an 11.5% Michael Kim were both in consideration for my core four this week, but Nick Taylor is still my favorite option of this bunch. I’m incredibly comfortable being late on Ludvig Aberg, and potentially Nicolai Hojgaard as well, but both will come in under 10%. I have Adam Hadwin and Adam Svensson both falling between 8.5 and 10.5%, and I have interest in neither. Both feel like the only two Canadians that are legitimately over-priced due to their nationality. I guess someone had to be $8.7K in this field, but I cannot find the reasons for why Hadwin is deserving of that price right now. I’d rock with Mitchell, Meronk, Taylor, and Kim in this range, who are all on my outright betting card as well.

• $7K: With the dearth of options in the $6K range, some fairly grotesque groupthink is formulating in the sevens. This may sound aggressive, but if you are playing a 15 plus percent Mark Hubbard, just quit now. This ain’t for you and it never will be. The Carson Young people should similarly look into other hobbies. And then there is Eric Cole, who makes a tad more sense to me than Hubbard and Young, but only barely. Early week projections had him in the 18% range, but it seems like he is starting to creep closer to 16%. That is still an abomination, but at least there’s more of a statistical case for him than Hubbard and Young. That covers the “You Should Quit DFS” portion of this column, but there are still a few others in this range that we should expect to see in the double digits. I have Alex Smalley coming in around 9.5%, Lee Hodges at around 11.5%, Ben Martin at 12%, and Dylan Wu at 10%. I don’t hate any of these plays except Lee Hodges. I thought Ben Martin would be closer to the Hubbard zone earlier in the week, but cooler heads appear to have prevailed. It’s still too high, but I don’t fault anyone for eating a little more chalk in this range than other weeks. Other favorites in this range include the aforementioned Vincent Norrman, Akshay Bhatia, and *whispers*… Webb Simpson.

• $6K: With a much lower owned McIlroy than I would have imagined, and players seeming to opt towards a more balanced approach this week, the $6K range is completely dead this week. Even moreso than usual, and I can’t really argue with it. This is a top-heavy field that really gets scarce once we start diving deep. I would be fairly shocked if a single player in this range crosses five or six percent. If forced to throw out one or two names that I don’t mind, I would go with Lucas Glover and Chesson Hadley.