By Andy Lack

The 2023 RBC Heritage Final Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership 

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. Already this season, the Houston Open featured a 2.5 stroke wave advantage! As soon as we flipped the calendar to January, weather played a massive role in the Sony Open as well. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

The weather appears to have been trending towards more playable conditions over the last 48 hours. Earlier in the week, Friday looked like a complete wash, but now a full day of golf seems incredibly feasible. Overcast skies and threatening wind gusts will still rule the day on Thursday, reaching up to 35 mph around 6:00 PM when the afternoon wave is finishing up their round. There definitely should be an advantage for the players teeing off in the morning on Thursday. The reason why I wouldn’t necessarily suggest that the AM/PM wave will overall see a sizable advantage is because I also believe that the players teeing off in the morning on Friday will experience a more playable golf course than those teeing off on Friday afternoon. If forced to choose, I would probably say the difference between the morning and afternoon on Friday will be more sizable, but I am not going out of my way to favor AM/PM players.

Core Four

• Viktor Hovland, $9,800 (Projected ownership: 16.3%): There are a number of reasons to love Viktor Hovland, but the young Norwegian is coming in at an extremely palatable ownership number compared to his peers, and is a great option as a first or second man in. Coming off an another worthy performance at the Masters, the 25-year-old continues to knock on the door, and it remains hard to believe that he has still yet to record his first win on mainland U.S. soil. I would not be the least bit surprised if that changes this week. He’s got a sneaky strong track record on shorter positional golf courses, and his struggles around the green should be quelled given that the short game degree of difficulty at Harbour Town is one of the lowest on the PGA Tour.

• Tony Finau, $9,400 (Projected ownership: 13.8%): Tony Finau feels a bit like the forgotten man this week despite striking the ball solidly at the Masters. I’ll admit, I had extremely high hopes for Finau at Augusta as well, and his 26th-place finish felt particularly muted. With that being said, he still rates out as second overall in my model despite Harbour Town not feeling like a Tony Finau course. The reality of the situation is that he’s a good enough player to transcend course fit, and he’s performed well at the longest courses on Tour, the shortest courses on Tour, the hardest courses on Tour, and the easiest courses on Tour. The World No. 14 is quite simply under-valued at this price and ownership, and I’ll gladly take the plunge on the five time PGA Tour winner.

• Tommy Fleetwood, $8,100 (Projected ownership: 10.8%): I’ll admit I love Tommy Fleetwood most weeks, but I was overjoyed to find him getting squeezed in the notoriously under-owned low $8K range. Fleetwood has done absolutely nothing to warrant a lack of popularity this week, he’s a victim of dead-zone pricing and a strong middle tier that is easy to get lost in. A 33rd place finish at the Masters was neither here nor there, I was not actually a huge fan of his chances this week. Harbour Town is a better golf course for the Englishman anyway. Outside of two top-25s in three appearances at the Pete Dye design, no one in this entire field has been better at TPC Sawgrass and Innisbrook than the frustrating 32-year-old, who is still remarkably in search of his PGA Tour victory. At 8.2K, Fleetwood does not need to win, as another top-15 would be a welcome outcome.

• Joel Dahmen, $6,900 (Projected ownership: 4.9%): I remember clearly that Joel Dahmen was a fairly popular selection at this tournament last year, and despite a bit of added Netflix fame, the 35-year-old appears to be out of sight and out of mind for DraftKings players this week. Despite a slow start to the season, Dahmen remains one of the most accurate drivers of the ball in this field, and he just gained over 4.8 strokes on approach in his last measured stroke play start. This is an excellent buy low on a player with great course and sneaky good ball-striking form, who should be absolutely licking his chops this week.

Chalk Report

• $10K: Despite this being Scottie Scheffler’s first appearance at Harbour Town, he appears to be leading the $10K range from a popularity standpoint, and is coming in at a cool 22%. His ball-striking sure didn’t miss a beat at Augusta, so I have a hard time arguing with the play. Despite thoughts that Patrick Cantlay’s slow play had lost him a few fans, my projections suggest that Cantlay will still plenty popular, and I have him coming in right behind Scheffler around 21%. Next up will be Collin Morikawa, who should be in the 19% zone and would probably be my favorite option in this range. Despite coming in as the defending champion and on the heels of a top-five performance at the Masters, there hasn’t been a ton of Jordan Spieth chatter this week. I have him coming at a cool 12%, which is the zone that Jon Rahm will likely find himself in as well.

• $9K: The $9K range is fairly flat this week, with all five players coming in between 13 and 18%. I’ve got Cameron Young as the most popular option at around 18%. He looked every bit the part at Augusta, finished third at this tournament last year, and it feels almost wrong that he has still yet to find his first victory on the PGA Tour given the fact that he nearly won two majors last year. I understand people wanting to call their shot and get the first one, yet under a limited sample size of one performance, I still have questions regarding how if this course is truly a good fit for his game. Max Homa, Viktor Hovland, and Xander Schauffele all should be fairly even in that 15% range, with Hovland standing out to me as the most appealing option. I have Tony Finau not all that far behind in the 12 to 15% range as well.

• $8K: The $8K range is full of enticing options, most notably kicking off with Justin Thomas, who has not been priced this low since the 2020 FedEx St. Jude’s Championship, in which he won. JT is a mis-price, and he should probably be in the low 9K range, but ownership reflects this and despite current form, he is still a popular click at this price and should come in around 16 or 17%. Sungjae Im and Shane Lowry should also be in that zone and will likely eclipse Thomas and come in between 17 and 20%. Once we get past those three, I don’t see a significant difference between Sam Burns, Tom Kim, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Tyrrell Hatton, who I all have falling between 11 and 16%. The two lowest owned options can be found at the bottom of the $8K range with Tommy Fleetwood and Sahith Theegala. I far prefer Fleetwood to Theegala on this golf course, but Theegala will be lower owned (and seemingly the only lock for single digits above $8K).

• $7K: With such a large field and beefy $7K range, ownership should theoretically spread out, and that is generally the case. The only player that I currently have coming in above 15% is Matt Kuchar, and only by a hair. There are certainly a few players that should comfortably clear double digits, which include Corey Conners, Russell Henley, Justin Rose, Si Woo Kim, Chris Kirk, and J.T. Poston. This leaves the bottom $7K range extremely spread out, as Poston is the only player I project below 7.5K to clear 10%. Some options that I love in the low $7K range include Tom Hoge, Webb Simpson, Adam Hadwin, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Davis Riley, and Cameron Davis (duh).

• $6K: There’s no overwhelming chalk or clear mis-prices in this range, although J.J. Spaun and Joel Dahmen are amongst players that I would have placed in the low sevens. No player here expects to seriously threaten double digits, but amongst those who will receive more ownership than their peers include Brendon Todd, Nick Taylor, Joel Dahmen, Ben Griffin, Tyler Duncan, and Erik Van Rooyen.