By Andy Lack

The 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic Final Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership 

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. Already this season, the Houston Open featured a 2.5 stroke wave advantage! As soon as we flipped the calendar to January, weather played a massive role in the Sony Open as well. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

I think if you wanted to make an argument for a weather edge, you probably could this week. The gap between Thursday morning and Thursday afternoon feels a touch greater than the gap between Friday morning and Friday afternoon. If I was favoring a side, I would give a slight advantage to AM/PM, but this course is so incredibly easy, I’m not going to let a 3 mph wind difference affect my player selection.

Core Four

• Max Homa, $10,200 (Projected ownership: 17.3%): I’m not typically a big Max Homa guy, and find that he is often overrated and over-owned. With that being said, this is the ideal spot for the five-time PGA Tour winner to make his core four debut. Homa is coming off disappointing back-to-back missed cuts at the U.S. Open and Travelers Championship, but the ball-striking has remained solid, and he was awfully close to making the weekend in Connecticut. Back to back missed cuts for a player of his caliber is rare, but I find it extremely hard to believe that he won’t rebound in Detroit with his Ryder Cup spot now in jeopardy. It’s not as if he is very far off, as two of his last five starts have resulted in top-10s. This has still been a banner year for the California native, with nearly a 50% top-10 rate across 15 starts. He’s finished in the top-25 here in both of his last two appearances, and Detroit Golf Club actually reminds me a lot of Silverado, a course that Homa has previously experienced a tremendous amount of success on. I love him on classical, tree-lined, Bent-grass courses, and I have zero concerns about him keeping up in a birdie-fest either. Homa ranks second in this field in birdies or better gained, and over the last two years, he is the number one Bent/Poa putter in this entire field. I find him to be an excellent pivot off of Rickie Fowler this week, and would still give the edge to Homa on this golf course if price and ownership were equal.

• Tom Kim, $9,800 (Projected ownership: 18.7%): Similar to Max Homa, I’m not really much of a Tom Kim guy, but there’s a time and place for everyone. I was banging the drum after he won the Shriners to pump the brakes on him being the next big thing. And he is not the next big thing. He lacks the power off the tee and requisite ball-flight to be true superstar in the modern game. Yet Kim is still a very fine player, who is now far more properly rated in the markets. After what many of the truthers would consider a disappointing season, I believe that the arrow is firmly pointing up with Kim and that he will make a ton of noise down the stretch. Kim is coming off a ho-hum 38th at the Travelers where he gained over a stroke off the tee and nearly five strokes on approach. The ball-striking looked particularly strong for him on Sunday, which is exactly what we are looking for. The two-time PGA Tour winner now returns to a course where he finished seventh at last year, gaining over seven strokes ball-striking in the process. While he is not putting well right now, he’s shown an ability to spike with that club and rise to the occasion in easier scoring conditions. Detroit Golf Club may be a bit easier than Sedgefield (Donald Ross!) and TPC Summerlin, but not overwhelmingly so. TPC Summerlin might actually be easier if I’m being honest, and he won that event at 24-under with a Saturday 62. I wish the ownership was a tad lower, but there are still enough concerns about his recent form, and he is sandwiched in between other popular options in Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, and Sungjae Im. Kim’s ownership will be kept in check, and I feel more confident in his chances this week than I frankly ever have.

• Davis Riley, $7,800 (Projected ownership: 4.7%): Unlike Homa and Kim, Davis Riley is one of my guys, and I will still happily dine out on his win at the Zurich Classic, even if he is only 50% responsible for my good fortune. Riley has been a bit sleepy since his breakthrough performance in the team event, and it’s about time for him to make some real noise in an individual stroke play event. He had a really down iron week at the Travelers, but I am far from deterred, as Riley’s long term approach metrics are incredibly strong. I currently have him as one of the best wedge players in this field, and I expect him to excel on a golf course where he may have a short iron in his hands on up to 12 holes. Unsurprisingly, the Mississippi native also ranks ninth in this field in opportunities gained, the best measure I have of who can consistently generate birdie looks. Most importantly, his ownership is comically low! We have somehow reached the point where folks believe that Austin Eckroat is five times more likely to outperform Davis Riley this week. Maybe the edge in DFS golf isn’t dead.

• Adam Schenk, $7,300 (Projected ownership: 7.3%): Adam Schenk is catching a bit more steam than I typically love for a low $7K option, but it’s nothing to be overly concerned about. At least he is coming off a missed cut, which will keep his popularity in check. It was the type of missed cut as well that I love, as Schenk gained marginally in both categories. It was just two starts ago where he put together back-to-back top-sevens at the Memorial and Charles Schwab, both stronger fields than he will have to navigate this week in Detroit. There aren’t many players in the low $7K range that have had legitimate chances to win tournaments this season, and Schenk could have easily been the champion at both the Valspar and Charles Schwab. That’s the type of upside we should always be looking for in this price range. It’s hard to envision too many players down here actually winning this event, but I would not be the least surprised if Schenk is the last one standing on Sunday afternoon. There’s nothing particularly flashy about his game, but Schenk does possess some pop off the tee, and he ranks top-30 in this field in birdies or better gained, par five scoring, and putting from five to 15 feet. He’s made three of four cuts at Detroit Golf Club, and has a sterling track record at my number one comp course this week, TPC Deere Run (4th and 6th). I’m expecting a strong showing this week from who I believe to be one of the players in the low sevens with the most winning upside.

Chalk Report

• $10K: Let’s start with Rickie Fowler, who at $10.4K is projected to be the highest owned player on the slate. Don’t get me wrong, Fowler has been playing some awesome golf this year, but at around 25 to 26%, he might be the worst DraftKings play on the slate. I have him at least 5% above every single one of his $10K peers, who all win on a far more consistent basis than he does. I like Tony Finau this week, but his ownership is a bit more than I had initially projected on Monday. 18% for the defending champion feels about right. I have Justin Thomas in that same zone of 18% as well, who I am a fan of this week as well. Max Homa should come in a touch lower than Thomas and Finau at around 17.5%, but there is no considerable difference there. Collin Morikawa will be the lowest owned player of the $10K options at around 15.5%, but I have my concerns about the two-time major champion on this golf course.

• $9K: I’ve got to be honest, I’m still not sure I’m buying this Hideki Matsuyama ownership. The former Masters champion is perpetually under-owned, and yet all my projections have him coming in at around 24.5%, the second highest owned player on the slate. I’m not sure I have seen Hideki north of 20% in my career playing DraftKings, but I have no reason to deem it false. If I had to guess, he falls closer to 20% by Wednesday night, but I’m cautious to underestimate the groundswell. At a macro level, I like Hideki this week and I think you can still go there, but I would be extremely weary of a Fowler-Hideki start. Even the Sungjae Im ownership surprises me as well. It feels like public sentiment has been down on Sungjae of late, but now after a 29th-place finish at the Travelers, he’s 21.5% and the third highest owned player on the slate? The Sungjae number is almost more confusing to me than the Hideki number, and I would not be surprised if by Wednesday evening, Hideki, Sungjae, and Tom Kim all flatten a touch and come in within two or three percentage points of eachother. For what it’s worth, I still prefer Kim the most out of that group if all things are equal. There feels to be a bit of a drop-off after Sungjae depending on how you feel about Cameron Davis and Keegan Bradley. I have Davis at a very manageable 10.5%, and an under-priced Keegan at an 13%. Davis is a bit over-priced, but I don’t have a strong objection to either player.

• $8K: I hate to be this guy because I’ve always been high on him since the beginning, but the Austin Eckroat thing is getting to be a bit much. I currently have him at 18.5%, and if that number holds, he may be the worst DraftKings play on the entire slate. Again, I hate to be the villain here, but Ludvig Aberg has been completely overrated before he’s even had the opportunity to become properly rated. 13.5% and an $8.7K price is nearly as egregious as Eckroat. Give me Chris Kirk and Adam Hadwin/Byeong Hun An in a two vs. two at far lower ownership any day of the week. It’s worth noting that Alex Smalley is also getting a fair amount of love, which surprises me at that price tag. I have him right there in the Ludvig zone at 13.5%, but my guess is that Ludvig passes him by week’s end. Stephan Jaeger, Chris Kirk, Brian Harman, Sepp Straka, and Byeong Hun, will all fall between 8 and 13%. Jaeger, Kirk, and An are my favorites of that bunch, for what it’s worth. I have Adam Hadwin coming in at an extremely palatable 7.5%, and I would be very surprised if Tom Hoge even gets to 5%. I find both to be extremely intriguing when placed in the context of Eckroat’s exorbitant number.

• $7K: The $7K range is absolutely loaded, but I don’t have a single player crossing the disgusting 15% threshold. That is not to say that there are not some bad plays here (looking at you, 10.5% Carson Young). Here are all the $7K players I believe will come in above 10%: Aaron Rai (11.5%), Mark Hubbard (11%), J.J. Spaun (11%), Doug Ghim (11%), Carson Young (10.5%). Of that group, I have the most interest in Hubbard and Spaun. An 11% Doug Ghim in a putting contest is absolutely beyond me, and I still need someone to explain Carson Young to me like I’m a child. Other players that could hit double digits include Justin Suh, Taylor Moore, and Kevin Yu. I don’t have a strong objection to any of the three, except maybe Suh, who is going to run out of luck with the flat-stick at some point. A couple lower-owned players I’m high on include Davis Riley, Thomas Detry, Nate Lashley, and Akshay Bhatia.

• $6K: There’s very little to be concerned about down here. The only player that I have potentially clearing 5% is Vincent Norrman. Maybe Callum Tarren gets there as well, but I have both capped at 7% max. A couple names I am a fan of this week include Ben Martin, Charley Hoffman, and David Lipsky, but choose your own adventure down here!

Best of luck this week – AL