By Andy Lack

The 2023 RSM Classic Final Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership 

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS, and is the type of finding small edge that over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

Any time the potential for rain delays enter the mix, wave advantages turn into a complete guessing game. It’s supposed to rain pretty much all of Thursday morning and early afternoon. Whether PGA Tour officials will allow play to continue through this remains to be seen. Assuming that there are no delays, I would want my players on the course as late on Friday as possible. Friday afternoon looks objectively easier than Friday morning in terms of wind, and for what it’s worth, Thursday morning appears less windy than Thursday afternoon. With that being said, tee times are all clustered between 7:00 AM and 10:00 AM on either course, so it’s really more about playing a course advantage than a time advantage. The Plantation course is generally an easier test, and is less exposed to the wind. I’d argue that Friday is a better time to play that course. 7:00 AM to 11:00 AM on Friday looks like a pretty tough pocket. Even with lower wind gusts on Thursday however, players will face some moisture. This one is really tough. If I had a choice, I’d try and get as many players in the Seaside/Plantation wave as possible. Yet I’m not willing to pivot at the top to do so.

Core Four

• Brian Harman, $10,300 (Projected ownership: 17.8%): Similar to last week, I’m struggling at the top here and I wish the $10K range was a little beefier. Folks should be forced to make a tougher decision on under-priced players such as Corey Conners, Russell Henley, Eric Cole, and Denny McCarthy. Instead all four of those players are carrying moderate to significant ownership at their price point, and it’s not like the three players in the $10K range are going to be neglected either. How does this bring me to Brian Harman? I’m not quite sure. I do believe that this golf course largely de-values what Ludvig Aberg and Cameron Young do best. That does not mean that they can’t blow the doors off everyone and still win. They are the best two players in the field. Yet the advantage they have over everyone else in this field is negligible compared to the one they would have at a track like Torrey Pines, Bay Hill, or Riviera. I struggle to pay up for those players on this specific golf course. Instead, I’ll turn my attention to the other player in the $10K range that I actually believe is being a touch disrespected. We are just a few months removed from Harman winning a major by six strokes, looking rock solid at the Ryder Cup, and he now returns to a golf course where he practices at and finished runner-up at last year. Remind me again why exactly he is cheaper than Young and Ludvig in this event? In DFS, you’ve got to play the golf course, not simply choose the best players. I’ve made a career out of the concept that golf courses matter, and on this golf course, Harman’s elite putting and comfortability is going to translate easier than Young and Aberg’s elite driving and long iron play. Harman ranks second in this entire field on short courses over the past two years, and he continues to raise his baseline on accuracy driven golf courses with a high greens in regulation percentage that allow his putter to get to work. Considering price, course fit, and ownership, this is the only direction I can look at the top.

• J.T. Poston, $9,300 (Projected ownership: 16.5%): My love for J.T. Poston this week has already been well documented, and the biggest argument for his inclusion here over other strong course fits such as Russell Henley and Corey Conners (outside of ownership) is reps. I love the fact that Poston has already played this Fall swing, whereas Henley and Conners’ last foray into competitive golf came in August. The fact that Poston was in contention to win and ultimately finished 3rd at the Shriners is just bonus. He did look sharp as ever however, gaining over five strokes putting and five strokes on approach. Dating back to the end of last year, this was the fourth time in five starts where Poston has gained over five strokes on approach. Poston has always been an incredibly strong putter, but his development into one of the best iron players on Tour was a surprise. Judging by his result at the Shriners, there’s no evidence of a slowdown, and now he travels to a golf course that fits his skill-set to a tee. Poston finished 21st in this event last year, gaining 4.6 strokes ball-striking over three rounds, and similar to Harman, he is one of the biggest risers in this entire field on short courses. Again, play the golf course, not the talent. I’m starting my lineups this week with two of the three best short course players in this entire field, and I feel wonderful about it. Over-confidence in PGA DFS often leads to disaster, but I can rest easy in my rationale for Poston in this spot, who also ranks top-15 in opportunities gained and birdies or better gained. It’s time the Postman delivered on PGA Tour victory number three.

• Alex Smalley, $8,000 (Projected ownership: 9.0%): I loved Alex Smalley last week in Bermuda, but I passed in DraftKings due to exorbitant ownership. He rewarded owners with a satisfactory 30th-place finish. Nothing really to write home about, but I was highly encouraged by his Sunday 65, his best of the event by three strokes. Now he travels to a golf course where he finished fifth last year, at an extremely palatable price and ownership number. Ranking second in opportunities gained, Smalley continues to under-perform based on the birdie looks that he generates for himself. That is largely due to the fact that he is a very inconsistent putter, but he is also one of the biggest risers on Bermuda-grass. Playing college golf at Duke, Smalley played on this type of agronomy all the time, and it shows. Seven of the 10 best putting performances of his career have all come on Bermuda. My only concern is whether the putter can do enough work to really keep up in a true birdie-fest, but the weather actually looks rather dicey this week, and I would not be shocked if we see tougher than average scoring conditions. This plays into Smalley’s hands even further, who remains one of the premier ball-strikers in this field. I have long been awaiting the elusive first PGA Tour victory from the man who made me quit college golf to justify that decision. This could be the week.

• Matthew NeSmith, $7,000 (Projected ownership: 3.3%): Matthew NeSmith is the type of player that is perpetually over-owned at this event due to his course fit and Sea Island ties. Yet the NeSmith discourse appears to be muted this week, despite his two top-15 finishes already at this track. NeSmith is also coming off a rock solid 15th at the Zozo Championship, and prior to that, he finished 42nd at the Shriners and 25th at the Sanderson Farms. Not bad. The formula to succeed at the RSM is simple. I’m looking for in form wedge players with strong course history. NeSmith checks all of those boxes with flying colors. Elite accuracy is a more of a luxury than necessity at Sea Island, but it also doesn’t hurt that NeSmith is the number one player in this entire field in good drive percentage. Even with magnanimous fairways, Sea Island ranks second on the PGA Tour in fraction of missed fairways that result in a penalty stroke. We needn’t not worry about that challenge of the course with NeSmith. It’s really all going to come down to his putter here, and no, he does not need a lights out putting week to pay off price. His ball-striking should be more than enough to carry him through the weekend, and if we find ourselves on the right side of some putt luck, he’s one of the few players in the low sevens with real upside to win this thing. There are far worse ways to spend ten dollars than the 150/1’s that are still hanging on this under-valued member of Sea Island mafia.

Chalk Report

• $10K: Only Ludvig Aberg, Cameron Young, and Brian Harman populate the $10K range this week. I have ownership as follows: Aberg (25%), Young (13.5%), Harman (18%). I’ve already discussed how I believe that based on course fit, price, and ownership, Harman is the best option of the bunch. Yet if you are inclined to take a flier on Young here, the ownership number is low enough where I can’t really argue against it. I’m all in on the talent of Ludvig long-term, but I do think we are beginning to put the cart before the horse here. He’s now frequently the highest priced and highest owned player on the slate, and no one seems to bat an eyelash. I can get behind that on certain golf courses, but not at Sea Island.

• $9K: I really think DraftKings screwed up this week, and the $9K range is evidence. There should always be 12 players above $9K in my opinion to facilitate some form of decision process at the top. This week there are only 10 players above $9K, and only three above $10K. The result of that is three players in the $9K that I believe will easily cross 20%. I have Corey Conners at 26.5%, coming in as the highest currently on the slate. Eric Cole and Russell Henley are not far behind at 23% and 22%, respectively. I love all three players this week, but I will only be going to battle with one. Be weary of a Ludvig-Conners, Ludvig-Henley, Ludvig-Cole start, as well as a Conners-Henley, Conners-Cole start. You’re not sneaking up on anyone with that one. J.T. Poston (16.5%) and Alex Noren (14.5%) occupy the middle tier, followed by Si Woo Kim (12.5%), and the over-priced Justin Suh (8.5%). My favorites of that group are Poston and Noren. I’m struggling to understand how Suh is more expensive than the likes of Kuchar, Jaeger, McCarthy, Svensson, Todd, and Horschel. Even at low ownership, that’s an easy pass. No strong opinion on Si Woo Kim here either.

• $8K: The top of this range is really strong, and if I was in charge of pricing, I would have had at least two of these players in the low nines. I think I’m going to keep riding a confident Matt Kuchar at 10% on a golf course that fits his skill-set to a tee. It would be fairly hilarious if this the week that Stephan Jaeger breaks through. I’m finally not betting him, but he’s still in my DraftKings pools. I’ve got him at a very modest 12.5%. Denny McCarthy and Adam Svensson, who I would have both nominated for the $9K range, will come in at 15.5% and 15% respectively. Both are really solid plays in my opinion. Brendon Todd looks to be the most popular in this range at 16.5%, and I can’t argue with it one bit. It’s a fair price. The bottom of the eights isn’t terrible either. I’ll rank in terms of preference:
  • Alex Smalley, $8,000 (9.0%)
  • Keith Mitchell, $8,200 (11%)
  • J.J. Spaun, $8,000 (7.5%)
  • Billy Horschel, $8,400 (11.5%)
  • Akshay Bhatia, $8,100 (11.5%)
  • Luke List, $8,300 (10.5%)

I’ve already discussed my interest in Smalley, and Cashmere Keith and J.J. Spaun are under strong consideration for the pool as well. I think I’ll be riding four guys in this range: Kuchar, Jaeger, Mitchell or Spaun, and Smalley. Denny and Svensson are tough cuts.

• $7K: A lot to talk about here. The groupthink isn’t as disgusting as I would have expected. I don’t see anyone sneaking towards 20%, but I would be very weary of model darling Chesson Hadley, who I have coming in at 15%. A few of the other players that I have in the double digits include Davis Thompson (10%) and Mark Hubbard (10%). There are a ton of players between seven and nine percent, and I’m sure one or two of them will eventually get there. This group includes Chris Kirk, Harris English, Taylor Pendrith, and Ben Griffin. I’m a big fan of Kirk, Pendrith, and Griffin this week. I’d argue that Pendrith is the most under-priced player on the slate, and Hubbard should be more expensive as well. Speaking of under-priced, I’ve got a ton of interest in Adam Schenk and Doug Ghim as well. Both fall-swing favorites that we have a nice opportunity to buy the dip on. Sam Ryder and Matthew NeSmith at the bottom are both incredibly playable as well.

• $6K: There are actually a lot of good options down here that I have some real interest in, and none of them will be over-owned. Currently, I don’t have a single player sneaking past the five percent threshold, which would be the counter-argument to too few players being priced above $9K. Based on many players in the high eights being under-priced, many folks are finishing their lineups in the sevens instead of the high sixes. I’m a huge fan of Greyson Sigg and Ben Martin this week. That is some real gold right there. Column favorites Carson Young and Kevin Yu will also get one more shot before we flip the calendar to 2024, and it brings me great joy to say this, but Doc Redman (one of the earliest players I fell in love with when I first started playing DFS) is finally playable again.

Best of luck this week – AL