The 2023 Ryder Cup Final Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership
The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.
With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS, and is the type of finding small edge that over time that will make you a winning DFS player.
Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.
I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.
Weather
Via the Guidonia wind tower, nothing really to write home about here. Excellent scoring conditions all three days, with wind gusts topping out around 12 mph, and temperatures up to 82 degrees.
Strategy/Ownership Disclaimer
I would imagine that most folks engaging in DFS this week are fully aware of the unique and singular nature of this week, but if not, allow me to provide a quick disclaimer on the format. With only 24 golfers in the field, DraftKings is using the “Captain” option, meaning we must select one player as our captain. That player’s salary is boosted 1.5x (ex. Justin Thomas’ salary increases from $6,400 to $10,200 if selected as the captain), and their DraftKings points are also boosted 1.5x. The strategy regarding this should be fairly obvious. Your captain should be a player that you are very confident will be given enough opportunity. Will you be different by making Nicolai Hojgaard your captain? Sure, but if Hojgaard plays twice all Ryder Cup, you are severely diminishing your returns. Even if Hojgaard goes 2-0, and the captain that you select goes 1-4, you are still going to earn far more points from the guy who plays more! Players still get points winning holes in matches that they lose! Opportunity (how much they play) is king in this format, and if you feel that you have an edge in terms of knowledge of who is going to play the most, than this may be a very profitable week for you!
Secondly, points are congruous between teammates. For example, if Justin Thomas makes a birdie on number one to win the hole in four ball (best ball), Jordan Spieth gets the same amount of DraftKings points as Thomas. It’s really not even about making birdies or eagles, it’s about holes won or lost. For example, if you think Cantlay and Schauffele are going to play all four matches together, why not just take Schauffele at the cheaper price? The only way for Cantlay to separate himself from Xander is in Sunday singles, but if they are paired together every match heading into Sunday, they will have the same amount of points.
Lastly, is it smart to try and make your lineup only players that you believe will be paired together? I guess it depends on what your goal is. If you are really high on Xander/Cantlay and Spieth/Thomas as two pairings that will play a lot of golf together and find success, you will stand a lot to gain from placing them in the same lineup. Same deal with if you are high on a certain side. If you believe that the United States will clean up, you definitely stand the most to gain by playing a U.S. only lineup. The counter-argument to that would be that you can hedge more by spreading it out. Let’s say that you have a lineup with a player from each pairing in a morning session. There’s a little more room to get something wrong if one of your players stinks, but you’re also opening yourself up to more chance. For example, if Thomas/Spieth, Cantlay/Schauffele, Scheffler/Burns, and Morikawa/Homa play the morning session, would it be more valuable to have a lineup featuring two full pairings, or one player from each of the four pairings? It really just depends on how confident you are in certain pairings and how big of a stand that you want to take. I think you probably want to shoot for nailing a pairing and riding it. As my friend Kyle pointed out, you are more likely to get three matches right than six.
One last thing: don’t get overly caught up in ownership this week. Projections are going to be off. It’s a tiny field. The way to get different is to leave money on the table and get creative with your captain. Again, I would not recommend getting too creative, but if you can avoid what you believe to be the most obvious build, that’s a decent start. I still see plenty of opportunity to get unique, but it may take a few uncomfortable clicks.
Core Four
- Captain: Justin Thomas ($10,200) (Projected ownership: 24.6%): You don’t pick Justin Thomas, a golfer that has barely sniffed Tour average play for the last calendar year, on your Ryder Cup team unless you have a plan. Personally, I don’t think that Zach Johnson is much of a critical thinker. I’ve listened to every press conference he’s done, and he does not strike me as the type of captain that A.) understands analytics and B.) is willing to put his balls on the table and take some chances with pairings. Johnson knows what he has in the likes of Spieth/Thomas, Xander/Cantlay, and potentially even Scheffler/Burns, and I expect all three of those pairings to get a ton of run. Even if any of those pairings start out slow, I genuinely do not see him having the hutzpah to bench one of his proven commodities. For what it’s worth, I was not a fan of Justin Thomas selection. I wanted Cameron Young on this team badly, and I would have preferred DeChambeau and Dustin Johnson over Thomas as well. With that being said, the more I dug into the golf course, I actually believe it’s more likely that Spieth struggles at Marco Simone than Thomas. The reason for playing Thomas or Spieth in the captain’s role is simple. It’s a blind belief that Zach Johnson is a stubborn, safe, inside the box thinker that will roll with the pairings that will yield him the least amount of scrutiny. Spieth and Thomas’ track record is undeniable, and while I’ll be the first to admit I can be a slave to the numbers at times, maybe there is something to the 1+1=3 idea when it comes to their chemistry together. Spieth’s roadmap at Marco Simone is a tough one if he is not driving the ball incredibly well, and that goes for Thomas as well, but I have a difficult time seeing this pairing not playing at least three times together before Sunday Singles. Is there a universe where they look terrible? Absolutely. Still, my numbers suggest that it’s more likely Spieth is the one to drag than Thomas. If one of the two really struggle, there is a scenario where I could see Rickie Fowler getting subbed in for whoever looks worse between Thomas and Spieth. If that comes to fruition, I actually think a Thomas/Fowler pairing could do some damage. Yet getting back to the general concept of this, the strategy around captain should be to identify the lowest priced and lowest owned player that you have the most confidence will play all five matches. Again, based on Luke Donald’s press conference comments in juxtaposition with Johnson’s blind doggedness, the Europeans almost feel more likely to rest one of their better players than the Americans. Of course, Europe is thinner at the back end, so I do believe that Rory, Rahm, and Hovland are fairly safe bets to play all five matches, but I wouldn’t go farther than that. There is not a player on the European team outside of those three that I believe will play all five, whereas I feel Justin Thomas is nearly as likely to play all five as the European big guns, and he’s sitting here at $6,400. It’s bold, but an aggressive strategy feels the only roadmap to truly capitalizing on such a unique week.
- Rory McIlroy ($9,600) (27.79%): There may not be a player heading to Rome this week more stricken with vengeance than Rory McIlroy. After an incredibly disappointing performance at Whistling Straits, McIlroy does enter this Ryder Cup a far better player than he was in 2021. Over the last 12 months, McIlroy ranks third in true strokes gained off the tee, second in driving distance, 12th in true strokes gained approach, and third in weighted proximity from 175 yards plus. I’ve already alluded to the importance of total driving at Marco Simone, and few are capable of what McIlroy can do off the tee. His short game remains underrated, and Bent-grass is far and away his preferred putting surface. If looking to compare Marco Simone to a PGA Tour course, I would point to PGA National or Bay Hill, both Florida tracks with trouble at every turn that emphasize long and accurate driving. While PGA National and Bay Hill both feature far more water than Marco Simone, the Fazio design’s thick native grasses act as a hazard in their own right. Marco Simone is target golf at its finest, a style that McIlroy has excelled at over the years. The four-time major winner is the only player on both sides to win at both PGA National and Bay Hill, and his experience in this format should prove dividends as well. I’m not totally sure who McIlroy will be paired with, but practice rounds indicate a potential grouping with Shane Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood, Viktor Hovland or Ludvig Aberg. I really do believe that we will see some McIlroy/Lowry, which provides some foreshadowing for a player also to be discussed in this piece. Quite simply, I truly believe that Donald is catering his course set-up to the skill-set of McIlroy, Rahm, and Hovland. Luckily for Donald, all three of them do a lot of the same things well. My guess is that Hovland will be the highest owned player on the slate, and something has been off with Jon Rahm’s driver as well. Rory is my Ryder Cup MVP. I simply think he finds a way to get it done, and that Europe won’t waste his talents with lesser pairings. I think Lowry is the weakest player that he will play with, and I’m a lot higher on Lowry’s chances this week than others. I’m not sure that anything can take the sting away from another major-less season, but a dominant performance in Rome may come close.
- Xander Schauffele ($8,200) (Projected ownership: 29.85%): Full disclosure, I do believe Xander Schauffele will be fairly popular this week. Probably not Viktor Hovland popular, but I imagine that he will be a common captain’s selection. The logic is easy to comprehend. Most view Xander and Cantlay as very similar talents who will be paired together for all four matches, and one player is $800 cheaper than the other. A big part of me wants to zag, but I’ve got to admit that I agree here. Xander is the play over Cantlay, and I do believe this is a pairing that could play all sessions. I have Cantlay as a slightly better course fit than Xander, but not overwhelmingly so. If Xander can corral his driver, Marco Simone still sets up wonderfully for him. Xander remains an excellent iron player, Bent-grass putter, and he makes plenty of birdies. He’s a proven match play performer who stepped up at both Whistling Straits, and Quail Hollow in the President’s Cup, where he recorded the clinching point. My only concern is the popularity factor, but I’m getting a little different with my captain’s selection, leaving some money on the table, and heavily utilizing players such as Shane Lowry and Wyndham Clark that should be on the lower end of the spectrum. Xander was too cheap last Ryder Cup and was in the winning lineup. Don’t overthink it.
- Shane Lowry ($5,400) (Projected ownership: 12.81%): Some of this selection is based on the prediction that Shane Lowry will get to play some golf with Rory McIlroy this week. Yet even if he does not, we are underrating how much the former Open champion will be leaned on. Unquantifiable narrative disclaimer, but even while they were getting destroyed at Whistling Straits, Lowry absolutely battled. He was moved to tears in a losing effort that was never really even close, and forgive me if this is naive, but I simply do not believe that will be lost on Luke Donald. I’m of the belief that Sepp Straka, Nicolai Hojgaard, and Robert MacIntyre will all get hidden, but that Lowry and Rose will see some real run, potentially with some awesome partners as well. From a course fit perspective, Lowry has always excelled on tougher courses with narrow fairways and thick rough, be it Firestone, Oakmont, or Muirfield Village. Lowry is no stranger to navigating thicker rough and obstacles off the tee. I mentioned PGA National as well as a stylistic comp to Marco Simone, a course that Lowry has recorded multiple top-fives at in the last few years. I do believe you need to at least do a bit of digging this week to make sure you get a few of the studs in there, and the only other case that I could make below $6K is for Sam Burns (solely based on opportunity), a player who I believe should not have been selected and is a terrible course fit. Even given the potential opportunity, I cannot bring myself to play Burns when a Scheffler/Burns pairing is a definitive bet against spot for me, whereas a McIlroy/Lowry pairing, or even a Fleetwood/Lowry paring would be a buy for me. I see Burns and Harman garnering far more ownership down here anyway. Burns I at least understand, but don’t get me started on Harman’s uphill battle at Marco Simone.
Chalk Report
- $9K: As previously mentioned, I would not put too much stock into ownership this week, but if I had to take a guess, I would probably roll with:
- Scottie Scheffler: 31%
- Rory McIlroy: 29%
- Jon Rahm: 27%
- Patrick Cantlay: 26%
My reasoning for Scheffler ahead of Rory is that there is more perceived knowledge of pairings on the American side. Early in the week, it appeared that Scheffler would play a lot of golf with Sam Burns. Yet as of Wednesday morning, it seems that a Scheffler/Koepka pairing may be part of the calculus as well. It’s very easy to get both Brooks and Burns in a Scheffler lineup, with the presumption that both will get to play with the de facto best player in the world. Rory’s partner feels more up in the air, so there is not an obvious selection to pair him with. I personally believe that Rory will play some golf with Shane Lowry, but I could also see him rolled out with Fleetwood, Aberg, Rose, Fitzpatrick, etc. Rory is a natural fit with frankly any player on the European side, but the lack of transparency surrounding his running mate leaves DFS players with more uncertainty than the perceived correlation they can acquire with Scheffler. For being the reigning Masters champion, and *at worst* the third best player in the world, the Jon Rahm chatter this week has been awfully quiet. My belief is that he will play a fair amount of golf with Tyrrell Hatton (a definite bet on pairing for me), but there is some uncertainty there as well. The only player that Rahm has been paired with the last two days of practice rounds has been Viktor Hovland. Wouldn’t that be something. I have Patrick Cantlay as the lowest owned player solely because I feel that Xander will be the priority. Many lineups will feature both, but folks with less aggressive game plans may also look to spread it out, knowing they can get their money’s worth from the Cantlay/Xander pairing from the cheaper option.
- $8K: Five players populate the $8K range, and Viktor Hovland is my current guess for the highest owned player on the slate. I still have him coming in around 34%, a touch higher than Scottie Scheffler, and I expect him to be an incredibly popular captain’s selection as well. The case is rather straightforward. Hovland is the hottest player on the planet heading into this Ryder Cup. He’s younger than Rory McIlroy and in better physical shape than Jon Rahm. There’s an argument that he’s just as safe a bet (if not safer) to play all five matches for Europe. It appears that he will be playing a decent amount of golf with either Ludvig Aberg or Jon Rahm. Either pairing would be favored against nearly any squad the Americans roll out. The only anti-Hovland argument I can muster is ownership. I have Xander Schauffele coming in right behind Hovland in the 30% zone. I’ve already laid out the Xander case clearly. Xander and Cantlay are a lock to get a ton of run together. Zach Johnson doesn’t like to stir the pot. Few belief there is a sizable skill gap between Xander and Cantlay, yet the former is $800 cheaper. Easy game. As it pertains to Brooks Koepka and Tommy Fleetwood, I have both hovering around 20%. I know for a fact that both will be less popular than Xander and Hovland, but how much so is the question. Fleetwood doesn’t have a natural partner, and the European that he has been paired with both days has been Sepp Straka. Not ideal. We could see Koepka begin to rise on Wednesday afternoon/Thursday as the Scheffler/Koepka pairing speculation reaches a boiling point. As it stands now, I’d firmly guess that Koepka is the best candidate to catch some late steam. The perceived change in partners from Wyndham Clark to Scottie Scheffler is a big deal.
- $7K: My guess is that Tyrrell Hatton and Jordan Spieth get the most run in this range, and the reason remains simple. We know that Spieth/Thomas will see ample opportunity, and it is becoming increasingly apparent that Hatton will play at least some golf with Jon Rahm. The sleeping giant in this range is Max Homa. I think that Zach will lean heavily on the Homa/Morikawa pairing, and I am a huge fan of Homa’s course fit as well. He nearly made my core four, but I do have a wager on him at 11/1 to be the top American points scorer. Fitzpatrick and Fowler are similarly interesting. I have both coming in around 18%, just below Homa at 20%, and sizably below Hatton and Spieth at 26%. Fowler is a stronger course fit in my opinion, but I’m not sold that he will be utilized heavily. It appears that a Fowler/Harman pairing is a possibility, and I am incredibly low on the reigning Open Champion’s course fit. There isn’t a Fitzpatrick pairing out there that would surprise me. Your guess is as good as mine. I think there’s a solid chance he will be rolled out four times, but he’s in the Fleetwood-Hatton zone of second tier Europeans that could either play a major role, or be benched if they do not come out firing.
- $6K: This is an awesome range. I have Thomas and Ludvig coming in around 25%, and Rose a touch below them at 21%. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rose number crept down and the Ludvig number kept rising. The Ludvig hype train has been pretty off the rails for quite some time now. Don’t get me wrong. I’m a believer too, but I still believe that Justin Thomas has a far higher chance than playing more matches, and that is the game we are playing. Ludvig has been paired both Tuesday and Wednesday with Tyrrell Hatton. Love that for them. The Hovland/Ludvig pairing feels almost too obvious, but the Europeans have shown time and again they are unafraid to roll out something funky if they see an analytical edge. The contrasting skill-sets of Hatton and Ludvig is the type of pairing that no one saw coming, and may end up winning them the Cup. I don’t really have a strong opinion on Justin Rose in either direction. He will be lower owned than Thomas and Ludvig, but the only player he was paired with on both Tuesday and Wednesday was Nicolai Hojgaard, who I am not particularly high on this week.
- $5K: As of this morning, I have Sam Burns as far and away the highest owned player in this range, coming in at around 28%. However, does Burns become an afterthought if Brooks/Scheffler is actually the pairing that Zach utilizes more heavily? I would expect Burns’ ownership to drop in the next 24 hours. He will still be more popular than Wyndham Clark and Shane Lowry, as conventional wisdom still suggests that Burns/Scheffler will at least get some run. Yet I would imagine he does drop a few percentage points. I have Clark and Lowry both coming in sub-15%, and I am a huge fan of both. At the back end of the U.S. side, I have far more confidence in Clark than I do Harman based on course fit, and I feel strongly that Lowry will at least get more run than MacIntyre, Straka, and Hojgaard, and potentially get to play some golf with McIlroy.
- $4K: All four of the players down here are mired in uncertainty. Each possess a real chance to only play once before singles, and I would simply recommend utilizing the player you believe has the best chance of playing the most golf. I don’t have a strong read on who that will be, and in transparency, I’m not playing any of these guys. I’m pretty heavy on Lowry and Clark instead. Straka and Harman appear to be the most popular, hovering around 17-20%, and I far prefer Straka. I’m pretty low on Harman this week. He ranks 23rd out of 24 golfers in my course fit model, ahead of only Robert MacIntyre. Straka played both of his practice rounds with Tommy Fleetwood, which is somewhat encouraging, and Hojgaard played both of his practice rounds with Justin Rose. Bobby Mac may legitimately be sub-five percent in this field, so if you want to take an ownership flier on him, I’ve got no argument against it.
