By Andy Lack

The 2023 Sanderson Farms Final Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership 

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS, and is the type of finding small edge that over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

Expect some hot and steamy temperatures this week in Jackson, as we have grown accustomed too over the last few years. There’s a pocket of tougher conditions right in the middle of the day on Thursday when the morning wave is finishing their round and the afternoon players are beginning there. No real edge to be had in my opinion. The Friday situation may cancel itself out as well. The morning players may see a bit of a rain, but the afternoon players will see higher winds. There’s a chance we may experience some delays on Friday morning as well. It’s hard to have a hard stance on this one, but if we see some bleed into Saturday morning, the AM/PM folks may be a bit disadvantage. Saturday morning is expected to feature higher winds than both Thursday and Friday. I’m still not reading too deeply into this one.

Core Four

• Stephan Jaeger, $10,400 (Projected ownership: 24.4%): I’m going to ride this Stephan Jaeger train to the bitter end. For many, Eric Cole is that guy, but I have always believed Jaeger is a better player. For what it’s worth, I feel fairly confident he will be less popular than Cole this week as well. While long and straight is far more of a luxury than a necessity at the Country Club of Jackson, to me, driving ability is what separates the two lovable losers at the top (non-Ludvig division). Jaeger’s distance edge, along with long iron play and short game, will allow him to absolutely destroy these par fives, a crucial cornerstone to success at this event. Jaeger ranks 36th in this field in driving distance, 20th in proximity 200 yards plus, third around the green on Bermuda-grass, 21st in opportunities gained, seventh in birdies or better gained, and sixth in par five scoring. My numbers suggest that he is the most well rounded player in this entire field. Every single one of the other top options have at least one notable flaw in their game. Jaeger, on the other hand, possesses the highest floor due to the versatile nature of his game. Throw the concept of win equity out the window this week. It does not exist in this field. We want to be targeting players with the highest percentage chance to find their way onto the first page of the leaderboard by Sunday. Jaeger is far and away the safest bet to accomplish that this week, and I will likely have more shares of the German than any other player teeing it up in Jackson.

• Mark Hubbard, $8,800 (Projected ownership: 9.6%): Another frequent friend of the column, I am patiently awaiting that first elusive Mark Hubbard victory. Can I confidently say that it’s coming this week? I can not, but Homeless Hubs doesn’t need to win at this price. I would gladly sign for a finish similar to his last go around the Country Club of Jackson, where his elite approach play (+7.2) propelled him to a top-five finish. This is far more an indictment of the field strength than it is a complement to Hubbard, but I have the 34-year-old as currently the best iron player in this field. For what he lacks in power off the tee, he makes up for with above average long iron play, short game, and putting. I do believe power is important at this course, and all three of my other featured players rank top-40 driving distance. Kuest and List rank top-15. Yet we’ve seen time and again that well-rounded plodders can work their way to the top of the leaderboard as well. For what it’s worth, I would take Hubbard’s iron play over any player’s power this week, and he already proved at the Fortinet that he was in midseason form. Hubbard finished 17th in Napa, gaining 3.3 strokes off the tee and 2.6 strokes on approach. If he happened to find something with the driver, this meager of field of plebeians may be in trouble. I think there is a very strong chance that our winner comes from this juicy range of Doug Ghim, Adam Svensson, Alex Smalley, Hubbard, K.H. Lee, and Sam Ryder. Picking correctly in that tier will pay dividends, and while Hubbard is not the only aforementioned player I am fond of, he is certainly my preferred option.

• Luke List, $8,000 (Projected ownership: 9.3%) : It’s been quite a while since I’ve taken a spin on the Luke List roller-coaster. While I can report from personal experience that such an endeavor usually ends in misery, absence does make the heart grow fonder. Since his breakthrough win at Torrey Pines, Luke List has been a massive disappointment, and an afterthought in the DraftKings space. Yet I was surprised to see him flash so strongly in my numbers this week, leading me to believe that he may be on the brink of a resurgence. Despite being arguably the worst putter on the entire PGA Tour, List’s ball-striking has remained rock-solid throughout his prolonged slump. He still ranks fifth in this field in overall off the tee play, 15th in driving distance, third in opportunities gained, 33rd in birdies or better gained, 12th tee to green on Bermuda-grass, and sixth in proximity from 200 yards plus. List is such a powerful ball-striker that he is going to fall into birdies without having to rely much on the flat-stick. We saw Sergio Garcia and Sam Burns win this tournament as neutral putters, and List copied a similar roadmap en route to a runner-up finish in 2016. I mentioned in my course preview article that from an architectural standpoint, the Country Club of Jackson bears striking resemblance to Torrey Pines. The task at hand this week will be easier, but the questions being posed by both courses are incredibly similar. We saw List put together a quiet top-25 finish at the Fortinet Championship where he gained 4.2 strokes off the tee and 0.9 strokes putting. I am not speaking in hyperbole: If Luke List can gain 0.9 strokes putting this week, he has a very strong chance to win this entire tournament. List is more of a name than some others in this range, but I don’t believe we will have to worry much about ownership. We’ve got an opportunity to be early on a player who has accomplished far more than the majority of this field, and we finally have some evidence that the most frustrating aspect of his game is beginning to turn around.

• Peter Kuest, $7,400 (Projected ownership: 9.0%): Peter Kuest is my Nate Lashley of this week, and I hope my outspokenness does not cause similar Wednesday steam in a content starved event. I’m not sure I can even take credit for the potential popularity of Kuest, as I’m unlikely to be the only person in awe of his power. We’ve seen players such as Cameron Young and Cameron Champ over-power this golf course with their driver, and Kuest ranks seventh in this field in driving distance. The second essential skill that Kuest possesses is long iron play. He ranks seventh in this field in proximity from 200 yards plus, where close to 30% of all approach shots at the Country Club of Jackson come from. Kuest also ranks ninth in this field in birdies or better gained, and 11th in par five scoring. At a macro level, I am looking for under-valued players this week who possess some pop off the tee, are strong from 200 yards plus, and make birdies in bunches. Kuest checks all of those boxes with flying colors. We’ve seen him contend last summer on similar course setups and far stronger fields than this, and I do believe it’s in play that the 25-year-old might actually just be good. He possess the ideal skill-set for modern PGA Tour golf, and I hope this week in Jackson acts as a coming out party.

Chalk Report

• 10K: With zero players in the $11K range this week, DraftKings really isn’t forcing us to make any difficult decisions here. Should a player be above $11K in this field? Probably not, but Ludvig has the best argument. I’ve seen ownership all over the map on the young Ryder Cupper, but I think I feel comfortable with a number in the 22% range. Stephan Jaeger and Eric Cole will both be higher than Ludvig, in the 23-26% zone. I currently have Cole higher than Jaeger, but that gap is closing. My initial lean was that Cole would be in the 28% range, and Jaeger would be closer to 23%, but I have them trending closer to equal. Emiliano Grillo, the only player that has actually won a PGA Tour event (and the cheapest option), will be the lowest owned player by a healthy margin. I have the Argentine coming in at 16.5%, and I will absolutely be deploying him this week. In a vacuum, I prefer Jaeger and Cole, but the ownership discrepancy is too great there. Jaeger and Grillo for me. I’m still not sold on Eric Cole’s driver and an emotional hangover for Ludvig feels imminent.

• 9K: With such a small $9K/10K range, I was expecting some unappetizing groupthink here, but ownership feels fairly evenly dispersed. Adam Svensson is the one man I would tread cautiously with. I have the Canadian coming in at a robust 17.5%, comfortably the highest in this range. Once we get past Svensson, Keith Mitchell and S.H. Kim will both be in the mid-teens. Full disclosure, I’m not a fan of either one of them this week. I’m far more inclined to take my chances with Doug Ghim, who has been hitting the cover off the ball of late. Ghim should come it a very palatable 10.5%. Lucas Herbert and Beau Hossler should both come in slightly below 10%, but the issue is that both are objectively bad golfers. I’d rather eat a touch more ownership and play Ghim, or even drop down to the high eights where I believe there are a number of solid options.

• 8K: There are some fun options in this range, and I am a massive fan of how it shakes out at the top. I would strongly endorse all three of Alex Smalley, Mark Hubbard, and K.H. Lee this week. I have Smalley coming in at around 14.5-15%, Hubbard in the 9.5-10% zone, and K.H. Lee at 8.5%. Hubbard is the headline selection of that bunch, but I am utilizing all three. The $8K range is popular in general this week. With no golfers above $11K, players have the ability to utilize this range heavily and take a more balanced approach. Let’s rank the rest of the options based on preference:
  • Luke List (9.5%)
  • Sam Ryder (16%)
  • Ben Griffin (12%)
  • Tom Hoge (12%)
  • Lee Hodges (15%)
  • Davis Thompson (9%)
  • Garrick Higgo (12%)

Luke List is the only one of that group that I will actually be deploying, but I totally understand the Ryder love. Thompson and Higgo are never plays for me, and I have no strong opinion on Griffin, Hoge, or Hodges.

• 7K: A loaded range this week, but I currently do not have a single player coming in above 15%. I do believe that Akshay Bhatia is under-priced, and I’m fairly shocked that he is not way higher owned. I thought he would be at minimum in the mid-eights this week. 10% on the newly engaged young stud is an absolute steal. Here are all the other players I currently have in the double digits, ranked in terms of preference:
  • Davis Riley (11.5%)
  • Dylan Wu (13%)
  • Hayden Buckley (12%)
  • Nick Hardy (12.5%)
  • Callum Tarren (12.5%)

I’m fairly high on both Riley and Wu this week, but I cannot say that I understand the Callum Tarren love at all. Tarren, Hardy, and probably Buckley as well are all easy passes. A few lower-owned players in this range I will be utilizing include Kevin Streelman, Erik Van Rooyen, Chesson Hadley, and Ryan Palmer. Pray for me!

• 6K: With no players in the $11K or $12K range this week, fantasy players don’t have much of a need to drop down here this week. I currently do not have a single $6K player crossing the five percent threshold. I am actually a pretty big fan of the $6K range, and believe there are a number of players down here that are better golfers than many of the low $7K options. A few names that will be featured in my pool include Will Gordon, Charley Hoffman, and Patton Kizzire. If you are looking for absolute punts, I’d give tentative endorsements to Kevin Roy and D.J. Trahan.