By Andy Lack

The 2023 Shriners Final Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership 

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS, and is the type of finding small edge that over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

It certainly does get windy in Las Vegas, and I think you could make an inspired case that those teeing off on in the PM/AM wave might experience a bit of an advantage. There are some extremely strong gusts on Thursday morning, which will be the most challenging time to be on the course. On the contrary, scoring conditions will be pristine all throughout Friday. If you are looking for a tiebreaker at the lower end of your pool, I would give an edge to those teeing off in the PM/AM wave.

Core Four

• J.T. Poston, $10,000 (Projected ownership: 11.9%): I joked about this on a recent podcast, but we are going to blink and J.T. Poston will have as many career wins as Rickie Fowler. The reason why I say this is simple. The North Carolina native does an excellent job of capitalizing on elite performances. We saw him finish the year with four top-seven finishes in his final seven starts, making it all the way to the BMW Championship. We know that Poston excels on wedges and putting courses, so it should not come as a surprise that he has already recorded a fourth-place finish here at TPC Summerlin. Poston ranks top-30 in this field in overall approach play, Bent-grass putting, putting from 10-15 feet, opportunities gained, birdies or better gained, and easy scoring conditions. It’s easy to make the case for the Postman based on his course fit, but the appetizing ownership number is the reason for his inclusion in the column this week. With many believing that Tom Kim and Ludvig are in a tier of their own from a talent perspective, why still spend ten thousand dollars on measly J.T. Poston? The reason is simple. TPC Summerlin creates very little separation from tee to green and completely devalues the skill that a player like Ludvig Aberg possesses off the tee and with his long irons. It’s of little relevance how far Aberg drives the ball off the tee this week. Even if he clears Poston by 50 yards, the Postman will still have a wedge in his hands. In a nutshell, that’s the beauty of TPC Summerlin. No matter how far a player hits the ball, because of narrowing landing areas and strategically placed bunkers, every player in the field is going to have a tremendous amount of chances from 150 yards and in. Since most players on Tour hit the ball to around 15 feet with their wedges, this event rudimentarily turns into a contest of who can hole the most putts from five to 15 feet. When golf becomes that simple, Poston is the type of player I want in my corner. There are few players in the field I trust more to keep their foot on the accelerator than a guy who has already won multiple tournaments at 20-under par or better. This is an easy one.

• Eric Cole, $9,800 (Projected ownership: 15.7%): I’m not sure that I would consider this a flop-lag opportunity on Eric Cole, but a 35th-place finish as the second highest priced options at the Sanderson Farms did not leave his supporters with a pleasant taste in their mouth. My concern with Cole last week perfectly dovetails the reason for my love for him this week. The 35-year-old still cannot drive the ball, and his ability to put together high end finishes without any control of one of the most important clubs in his bag remains impressive. Last week in Jackson, Cole lost 3.3 strokes off the tee, which is the only reason he failed to crack the top-30. He gained a combined 5.8 strokes to the field last week in all other strokes gained categories. While my consternation about his driver last week came to fruition, I do not believe Cole will experience a similar fate this week in Las Vegas. Along with maybe Pebble Beach, TPC Summerlin could be the easiest course on the PGA Tour off the tee. It features the rare combination of massively wide fairways, without forcing players to hit driver because it plays so short. If golf was played from fairway to green, Cole would already have multiple wins to his resume, and TPC Summerlin is the closest he will get to a situation that deems his driver struggles irrelevant. Despite such shaky command over the first shot, Cole ranks first in this field in opportunities gained and first in this field in birdies or better gained. He’s probably the best pure wedge player in this field outside of maybe Tom Kim, and he ranks first in this field in proximity 100-125 yards. Cole is also the number three Bent-grass putter in this field, and he ranks top-five in easy scoring conditions. You’ll be hard pressed to find a more trustable long-term player in this field from 150 yards and in than Eric Cole. At an extremely elementary level, TPC Summerlin can be distilled to wedge play from 100-150 yards, and putting from five to 15. If we just focus in on those two specific skill-sets, Cole (along with a player to be mentioned later) is the best player in this field. We are rarely granted with the opportunity to play the strongest course fit in the field at palatable ownership, but here we are. Slam spot.

• Christiaan Bezuidenhout, $8,000 (Projected ownership: 14.4%): I’ve already alluded to the fact with Poston and Cole that TPC Summerlin could most rudimentarily be distilled to wedge play from 100-150 yards and putting from 5-15 feet. If the game of golf only required those two skills, Christiaan Bezuidenhout would be one of the best players on Tour. The South-African is one of only two players in this field to rank top-10 in this field in Bent-grass putter and long-term proximity from 100-150 yards. The other is the aforementioned Cole. If I’m actually picking nits with Cole, it’s that I do not see a whole lot of separation between him and an eight thousand dollar Bezuidenhout. Both are slam worthy at their prices, but I’m a bit surprised that Bez didn’t get a stronger price increase coming off a sixth-place finish at the Sanderson Farms where he gained 4.6 strokes on approach and 5.1 putting. Similar to Cole, the one aspect of his game that Bezuidenhout struggles with is his driver, and the only reason why he did not find himself in last weeks playoff was because of his shaky off the tee play. Driving will be of little importance this week at TPC Summerlin, and it should not come as a surprise that he already has recorded a top-20 finish here, as well five top-25 finishes at the three tournaments (The American Express, John Deere Classic, AT & T Pebble Beach) most closely aligned with the task at hand this week. Bezuidenhout carries the exact same skill-set as Cole at a two thousand dollar price discount, as the duo rank first and second in my model this week. I’m obviously brimming with confidence this Fall swing so this likely does not end well, but this is the most straightforward path to victory that Bezuidenhout will see all year.

• Peter Kuest, $7,200 (Projected ownership: 5.1%): Peter Kuest is my guy. I have spoken extensively this Fall swing about how if you are higher on a player than market, now is the time to capitalize. Quite simply, I just happen to think that Kuest is good. He possesses all of the tools to succeed at modern PGA Tour golf. Many of those tools were on display for us last week at the Sanderson Farms, where he secured this column a top-25 finish. Kuest gained 2.3 strokes off the tee, 0.4 on APP, and 3.6 strokes putting. I knew that Kuest would be a solid option at the Country Club of Jackson because he hits the ball a mile and is an excellent long iron player. Another player (who was also featured in this column) with a nearly identical skill-set ended up winning the tournament, but Kuest’s top-25 was nothing to stick our nose up at. If they continue to price him in the low sevens, Kuest is a pure plug and play on talent alone, regardless of course fit. I will admit that I liked Kuest’s fit at the Country Club of Jackson a bit more than I do at TPC Summerlin, but what separates the 25-year-old from other bombers is his ability to putt. Kuest ranks 19th in this field in Bent-grass putting, a surface he has been even stronger on than Bermuda. TPC Summerlin provides ample scoring opportunities, and due to Kuest’s strong approach play, he will have a tremendous amount of chances this week inside 10 feet. The former BYU standout ranks 12th in this field in putting from five to 10 feet, as well as 11th in birdies or better gained, and 14th in easy scoring conditions. While this will be his first appearance at TPC Summerlin, I could not think of a more straightforward, vanilla course on Tour, and we saw Tom Kim claim victory last year on debut. With top-20 finishes at TPC Deere Run, Detroit Golf Club, and TPC Craig Ranch, Kuest has shown an affinity for wide open bunny tracks where the foot must be on the accelerator at all times. Expect Kuest to cruise to another top-20 at reasonable ownership on a golf course that should reward his aggressive style of play.

Chalk Report

• $10K: As we sit here on Wednesday morning, it appears that Tom Kim is creating some real separation with Ludvig Aberg. I have Aberg in the 22% zone, and Kim in the 28% zone. In a vacuum, I do prefer Kim’s course fit. Ludvig is playing in his third different time zone in 10 days, and this is a golf course that largely devalues his greatest skill. With that being said, ownership does reflect that general consensus might be moving towards the conclusion that this feels a natural letdown spot for the young star. Cameron Davis and J.T. Poston both healthily trail the top two aforementioned talent. Yes, there is a talent disparity between Kim/Aberg and Davis/Poston, but price accurately reflects that this week. Poston is a full $900 cheaper than Kim, and $1K cheaper than Aberg. As previously mentioned, I prefer Poston to Davis, but both are suitable options at their given price and ownership.

• $9K: The $9K range is flush with options this week, with some more sensible than others. I currently have Si Woo Kim leading the charge in ownership at around 19%. Eric Cole and Adam Schenk will not be far behind in the 15 to 16% zone. I think there’s a chance that both players catch some late steam on Wednesday and potential catch up to Kim. I’ve seen a lot of love for Schenk on X this week, and Cole is always well endorsed too. I’ve got Nicolai Hojgaard and Adam Hadwin a touch below them in the low teens. I have the same concerns about Hojgaard as I do about Ludvig. I simply believe that Summerlin is a golf course that will handicap the Dane’s best skill. Hadwin makes more sense to me based on course fit, but he’s still over-priced. No one wants anything to do with Emiliano Grillo coming off a missed cut at the Sanderson Farms as one of the highest priced players in the field. This feels like a fairly obvious bounce-back spot, but he has not performed well on this golf course before. Until they price Lucas Herbert in the low to mid $7K range where he should be, he will continue to be under-owned. There are far better ways to get different.

• $8K: Let’s start here. I believe that Tom Hoge could be deadly on this golf course too, but in no universe should he be hovering around 21 or 22%. That’s an easy pass for me. Andrew Putnam is the more frustrating one for me. I have bet Putnam outright and absolutely love this spot for him, but 18-19% feels a bit obtuse. That’s a challenging decision to make. Fantasy players need to make a choice between Putnam and Hoge. Are there ways to utilize both? Of course, but it’s dangerous. J.J. Spaun, Adam Svensson, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout should all hover around 15%. With so few expensive options in the fall swing, the $8K range is far less neglected than we are used to seeing. I’m a fan of all three of those options, but only Bezuidenhout will be making my pool. The remaining players in the eights all provide nice value, so let’s rank based on preference
  • Mark Hubbard, $8,000 (12.5%)
  • Alex Smalley, $8,500 (10%)
  • Aaron Rai, $8,800 (5%)
  • Vincent Norrman, $8,800 (8%)
  • Luke List, $8,400 (5.5%)
  • Beau Hossler, $8,100 (11%)

Hubbard, Smalley, and Rai are all in for me, and I don’t hate Norrman either. Luke List dropped off the face of the earth immediately following his win at Torrey Pines, and I would not be shocked if history repeats itself. Do not expect a “floodgates” situation with last week’s champion. Finally, never Beau Hossler. Ever. Under any circumstances.

• $7K: In a loaded $7K range, there are few rather disgusting groupthink choices. I have Davis Thompson, Sam Ryder, and Matthew NeSmith all above 14%. Thompson should come in around 14%. I have NeSmith at 16%, and Ryder at a whopping 17.5%. None of the three make any sense to me. I’m not sure what I might be missing, but I did not even consider any of these three players, and I wouldn’t even be intrigued at low ownership. A few other players that should clear double digits include Justin Suh (11.5%), S.H. Kim (10.5%), Ben Griffin (10.5%), and Callum Tarren (10%). Again, I have no idea what everyone else is seeing, but none of these players remotely make sense to me at that ownership. Justin Suh and Callum Tarren are both Ponzi schemes, S.H. Kim is just as confusing to me as Davis Thompson, and the interest in Ben Griffin after what we saw on Sunday in Jackson is sickening. What’s hilarious to me about these ownership numbers is that players such as Nick Taylor (who is around $1500 too cheap) can be found sub-five percent. This is a rare (and fun) instance where I see absolutely zero merit in any of the popular $7K options, and all the players I like in this range appear to be afterthoughts. Kuest and Taylor are my favorites in this range, but I’ll also give a shout to Doug Ghim, Alex Noren, Davis Riley, Chesson Hadley, and David Lipsky.

• $6K: The only player to be really concerned about down here is course history king and Las Vegas resident, Harry Hall. Concern may be a strong word, as I have Hall in the seven to eight percent range. He’s the only sub-7K player I have crossing the five percent threshold, and I’m not sure I can argue that it’s justified. Yes, Hall has two top-15 finishes at Summerlin in both his appearances, but he remains an incredibly shaky iron player. If he continues to creep towards double digits, I’d venture to say that’s a massive market overreaction. The only two other players I have in the five to six percent zone are Erik Van Rooyen and Joel Dahmen. EVR makes some sense to me, but Dahmen does not. For what it’s worth, a few players I have interest in down here include my guy Nate Lashley, X Superstar Michael Kim, and former Shriners winner, Ryan Moore.