By Andy Lack

2023 Fortinet Championship Course Breakdown: Silverado 

The Basics 

• Course: Silverado Country Club (North Course)
• Location: Napa, California
• Designer: Robert Trent Jones (1966) with a Johnny Miller re-design (2011)
• Length: Par 72; 7,165 yards
• Hazards: Water comes into play on two holes
• Fairways: Bermuda-grass with Poa Annua and Rye, measuring just 27 yards wide
• Rough: Kentucky Blue-grass, measuring three inches
• Greens: 6,200 square feet, with a blend of Bent-grass and Poa Annua, running 11.5 on the stimp-meter

After the shortest off-season in sports, golf is back! While many turn their attention to football, the golf world centers around beautiful Napa, California for the opener of the 2023-2024 PGA Tour season. The fall swing is anti-climactic in its nature yet still a fine opportunity to capitalize from a betting and DraftKings perspective. I’ve grown to enjoy breaking down these fall swing events. There is certainly more of an edge to be found for those willing to do the legwork on some lesser-known players, so let’s dive in.

Silverado Country Club has been the host course of this event, formally known as the Fry’s.com Open, since 2015. It generally plays as one of the easier courses on Tour, yet there has been a bit more pushback over the last two years due to some firmer conditions. Last year, Silverado ranked 23rd out of 40 courses in scoring average, but in 2021, it played as the fourth-easiest course on Tour. Historically, it has never ranked harder than Tour average in difficulty, which is largely due to its less-than-imposing length and four par fives. A simple fix would be to simply change the par five fifth hole into a long par four, as any par 72 that plays under 7,200 yards on Tour, outside of TPC Sawgrass, is going to be torn apart. Silverado’s greatest pushback is its incredibly narrow fairways, and *somewhat* challenging green-side surrounds. Still, its lack of length yields a ton of short irons for the world’s best, which is not a style of golf that I typically have a ton of interest in. With the Houston Open moving to the regular schedule, I think it would be fun if at least one of the fall swing events was not a birdie bonanza, and Silverado *has* the potential to be a fun and engaging test if its length was updated to modern advances in technology.

In its current form, the RTJ design plays as one of the shortest par 72s on Tour. All of its par fives are reachable in two shots, and nine of the par fours measure between 360 and 450 yards. Only three of the 10 par fours play to a historic scoring average of over par, and all four of the par fives play over a quarter stroke under par and rank as the four easiest holes on the course. All feature a birdie rate over 35%. Silverado’s par threes do have some bite, and the quartet historically ranks as the first, third, fourth, and ninth-toughest holes on the course. All four play to a historic scoring average over par. The second, which does not even measure 200 yards on the scorecard, has historically been the most challenging hole on the course. It’s the only hole on the course to feature under a 10% birdie rate. Overall, the quartet ranked as the 11th-hardest set of par threes on the PGA Tour.

Ultimately, Silverado can aptly be summarized as a wedges and putting course. Its green-side surrounds are trickier than they look, but so many players have a scoring club in their hands on nearly every hole that those who are missing the green consistently are likely nowhere near the first page of the leaderboard. You’ll notice in my model breakdown that I am looking far more at a player’s long-term baseline than their recent form. Every single player in this field has had nearly a month off from golf. Some have spent that time vacationing, while others have spent time utilizing more pool toys than a Hamptons day party. Point being, it’s rather meaningless to look at how a player hit the ball at the Wyndham Championship, or even the BMW Championship, as enough time has passed that each should be viewed with a clean slate. Instead, I will primarily be looking at a player’s long-term baseline over the 2023 season to identify who are the safest bets from a course fit standpoint. With no recent data to pull from, I always advise banking on the largest sample size possible to pinpoint the most likely outcome. Let’s dive into the stats.

Stats 

• Off the Tee 
  • Last year, 13.7% of strokes gained at Silverado came off the tee. Historically, that number rises to 15.2%, which is right at the Tour average of 15.3%.
  • Last year, Silverado ranked 14th out of 38 courses in strokes gained off-the-tee difficulty. Historically, it has ranked right around Tour average in off-the-tee difficulty, despite featuring some of the most narrow fairways on the PGA Tour. Last year, Silverado featured the second-lowest driving accuracy percentage on the PGA Tour, and each of the last seven years, it has ranked inside the top six courses in lowest driving accuracy percentage. Last year, the RTJ design featured a comically low number of just 46.8%, well below the Tour average of 58%. On the contrary, driving distance still remained right around Tour average.
  • Despite featuring the second-most narrow fairways on Tour, players are not deterred from hitting driver at Silverado. The reason for this is simple. The three-inch Kentucky Blue-grass rough does not provide much of a penalty. Last year, Silverado ranked 29th out of 40 courses in missed fairway penalty, and each of the last five years, it has ranked inside the top 10 in lowest penalty for missed fairways. Last year, the RTJ design ranked 22nd out of 40 courses in rough penalty and 16th out of 40 courses in non-rough penalty.
  • There are still a lot of trees at Silverado, but there is very little penalty for wayward driving due to the lack of true hazards in play off the tee. Last year, Silverado ranked 30th out of 38 courses in fraction of missed fairways that resulted in a penalty stroke.
  • The question of whether or not Silverado is a bomb-and-gauge course remains an interesting one. Cameron Champ won here in 2020 leading the field in driving distance by a healthy margin, but Zac Blair finished just a few strokes behind him ranking nearly dead last in driving distance. In 2020, 10 of the top 16 players on the leaderboard gained to the field in driving distance. In 2021, Stewart Cink did not feature quite the pop of Cameron Champ, but he still ranked 11th in driving distance. In the Cink year, however, nine of the top 13 players on the leaderboard lost to the field in driving distance. 2022 told a similar story, with a fairly even distribution of shorter and longer hitting populating the top of the leaderboard. Last year, six of the top 11 actually lost the field in driving distance, including winner and runner-up finishers Max Homa and Danny Willett. Justin Lower finished fourth, ranking close to dead last in distance off the tee. Ultimately, distance helps on any golf course, especially on those where there is little penalty for missing the fairway. Still, there are no real drivable par fours here, and all of the par fives are reachable for nearly every player in the field. I have a hard time knocking any player for having a lack of pop off the tee.
  • In fact, there was a far greater correlation with good drive percentage and success than there was with driving distance. Two years ago, nine of the top 10 players on the leaderboard gained to the field in good drive percentage. In 2021, 21 of the top 22 players on the leaderboard gained in good drive percentage, with Stewart Cink (winner) and Brian Stuard (third place) ranking first and second. Last year, Taylor Montgomery was the only player in the top 20 to rank below average in good drive percentage, and he gained over 11 strokes putting. The reason for this is fairly uncomplicated. Silverado is all about wedge play and putting. Elite off-the-tee play is more of a luxury than a necessity. Off the tee, the objective at Silverado is rather straightforward. Simply place yourself in a position that gives you a comfortable wedge distance in. For some, that might mean driver on every hole. For others, that might mean rarely ever hitting driver. We’ve seen all types of strategies work. In 2020, Cameron Champ played extremely aggressively off the tee, cutting the corner on doglegs nearly every opportunity that he got. Yet Adam Hadwin finished just a stroke back, dinking and dunking off the tee to playable spots and coupling that with elite wedge play. I simply want to identify players that can put themselves in position off the tee to attack this golf course. They don’t need to be the most accurate in the world, but with such a strong correlation between good drive percentage and success, there needs to be at least some form of strategy off the tee. Getting to comfortable wedge spots and staying out of the trees is the main objective. I would still identify Silverado as more of a second-shot golf course than a point A to point B course. The best players in this field in good drive percentage over the last year have been Matthew NeSmith, Doug Ghim, Chez Reavie, Andrew Putnam, Ryan Armour, Tyler Duncan, James Hahn, Brendon Todd, Kevin Yu, and Ben Martin. 

• Approach 
  • Last year, 31.7% of strokes gained at Silverado came on approach, which is below the event average of 32.1% and well below the Tour average of 34.7%.
  • Last year, Silverado ranked 10th out of 38 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty due to firmer putting surfaces, but historically, it has ranked right around Tour average in approach difficulty.
  • Historic greens in regulation percentage at Silverado is 67.9%, comfortably above the Tour average of 65.6%. Last year, it ranked slightly easier than Tour average in greens in regulation percentage, and each of the last five years, the RTJ design has featured some of the easier greens to hit on the PGA Tour.
  • For all intents and purposes, Silverado is a wedges course. It ranks below Tour average in all proximity buckets from 150 yards-plus, but it ranks above Tour average in all proximity buckets from 75 to 150 yards. Last year, 18% of approach shots came from 100-125 yards, and 19% of approach shots came from 125-150 yards. When honing in on proximity ranges, I would recommend 100-150 yards. Nearly 50% of approaches come from inside 150 yards, a very high number compared to other PGA Tour courses. The best players in this field from 100-150 yards over the 2023 season were Russell Knox, Charley Hoffman, Justin Thomas, Eric Cole, Satoshi Kodaira, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Hank Lebioda, J.J. Spaun, Seung-yul Noh, and Cody Gribble. 
  • Wedge play is absolutely essential at Silverado, as the course does not do the best job of separating average to elite drivers of the ball. Most players will generally be approaching these greens from similar spots.

• Around the Green 
  • Last year, 20.6% of strokes gained at Silverado came around the green, which appears to be a bit of an anomaly. The event average comes in at 14.5%, right in line with Tour average.
  • Last year, Silverado ranked seventh out of 38 courses in strokes gained around-the-green difficulty. Historically, it has always ranked harder than Tour average in around-the-green difficulty. Yet 2023 was the hardest it has ever played around the greens in the last 10 years.
  • Last year, it ranked seventh out of 38 courses in around-the-green difficulty from the fairway, 10th out of 38 courses in around-the-green difficulty from the rough, and 17th out of 38 courses in around-the-green difficulty from the bunkers. Overall, Silverado ranges from middling to tougher than average in its green-side surrounds. It’s an easy tee-to-green course with a higher-than-average greens-in-regulation percentage, so players who are relying on their short game are not likely in contention to win the tournament. The degree of difficulty of the around-the-green shots at Silverado is fair, but it’s hard to make a real case that this is a tournament where we need to be identifying players with an elite short game. Still, we saw it come into play down the stretch last year in the Homa-Willett duel, and there will be a few crucial times throughout the round where an expertise around the green will be certainly advantageous. The players in this field who possessed the best short game in 2023 were Aaron Baddeley, Brendon Todd, Matthias Schwab, Jonathan Byrd, Kevin Streelman, Alex Noren, Justin Thomas, Mackenzie Hughes, Matt Kuchar, and Ricky Barnes. 

• Putting 
  • Last year, 34.0% of strokes gained at Silverado came with the flat-stick, which is below the Tour average of 35.5%. Historically however, that number ticks all the way back up to 38.2%, comfortably above Tour average.
  • Last year, Silverado ranked 15th out of 38 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty, and historically, it has ranked right around Tour average in putting difficulty. It ranked inside the top 10 in putting difficulty in 2019, 2018, and 2015, but other than that, it’s been middle of the pack nearly every year. There is definitely some undulation to the greens as well as enough Poa mixed in to create some uncertainty.
  • Last year, Silverado ranked 30th out of 40 courses in putting difficulty inside five feet, but there have also been years (2019, 2018, 2017, 2015) where it has ranked inside the top seven in putting difficulty inside five feet. It ranked 13th out of 40 courses in putting difficulty from five to 15 feet, and 18th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty from 15 feet-plus.
  • Silverado is not a golf course that creates extreme separation from tee to green. Part of the formula every single year is draining a ton of putts, which should not come as a surprise when the entire field has a wedge in their hands on over 50% of the holes. In 2021, 21 out of the top 22 players on the leaderboard gained strokes putting. In 2022, 20 out of the top 22 players on the leaderboard gained strokes putting. Last year, not a single player in the top 20 lost over a stroke putting, and the top four finishers all gained over four strokes putting. History has shown that a bare minimum performance of two strokes gained on the greens is required to claim victory.
  • An important distinction to note is that although Silverado is on the West Coast, the Bent-grass is still dominant. These are not pure Poa greens like we see at Pebble Beach, Torrey Pines, or Riviera. They have more in common with a Detroit Golf Club, where the Bent-grass is the more imposing strain. The best players on Bent-grass/Bent-Poa greens over the last two years have been Max Homa, Justin Lower, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Justin Suh, Brendon Todd, Eric Cole, Taylor Montgomery, Chesson Hadley, Seung-yul Noh, and Adam Long. 

• Scoring Stats 
  • On courses with such a large plurality of wedge shots, I always want to identify players who can generate the most birdie opportunities inside 15 feet. The players in this field in opportunities gained in 2023 were Chez Reavie, Justin Thomas, Eric Cole, Ryan Palmer, Charley Hoffman, Luke List, Kevin Yu, Ben Martin, Stephan Jaeger, and Akshay Bhatia. 
  • On a par 72 with four reachable par fives, I also want to find players who have shown ability to take advantage of the three-shotters. There has always been a strong correlation at Silverado between par-five scoring and success at Silverado. The top three players on the 2022 leaderboard (Homa, McNealy, Pereira) all finished top-four in par-five scoring. Last year, 23 of the top 25 players on the leaderboard all finished above average in par-five scoring. Of the top 10 players in par-five scoring last year, nine of them finished in the top 25 of the leaderboard and six of them made up the top 10. The best players in this field in par-five scoring over the past year have been Davis Thompson, Dylan Wu, Richy Werenski, Andrew Putnam, Ryan Gerard, Cameron Davis, Nate Lashley, Webb Simpson, Kevin Yu, and K.H. Lee. 

• Comp Courses/Course History 
  • In terms of course history, Silverado is certainly on the lower end of predictiveness compared to other PGA Tour courses. There is very little nuance or strategic value to this course, and history has shown us that players have very little issue performing here on their first appearance. Even players who have struggled here have shown an ability to turn it around in a moment’s notice. Prior to his back-to-back victories the last two years, Max Homa had finished 60th and 62nd in his first two appearances at Silverado. Danny Willett missed his prior two cuts here before finishing second last year. Justin Lower and Byeong-Hun An both finished fourth last year with only the experience of one missed cut in their other appearance. Rickie Fowler and Taylor Montgomery both finished top-six last year on debut. Prior to Homa’s back-to-back victories, Stewart Cink won at Silverado with a missed cut four years prior in his lone appearance in Napa.
  • There are certainly some course history mavens who appear to raise their baseline here year after year, but many of them (Marc Leishman, Kevin Na, Phil Mickelson, Bryson DeChambeau, Harold Varner, and Brendan Steele) have departed to LIV! I see little value in knocking anyone with a poor or zero track record around Silverado, yet it’s worth noting that the best players at this golf course over the last five years have been Justin Thomas, Chez Reavie, Cameron Percy, Sahith Theegala, Ryan Moore, Taylor Montgomery, Brendon Todd, Kevin Streelman, Stewart Cink, and Matt Kuchar. 
  • In terms of comp courses, I don’t mind the idea of looking at other non-Bermuda birdie-fests such as the Rocket Mortgage (held at Detroit Golf Club) and the John Deere Classic (held at TPC Deere Run) as reference points. Ideally, we want to identify easier-than-average golf courses that feature very little penalty for wayward driving and a large plurality of wedge shots. Pebble Beach would also fall into this category, but too many players are playing from the fairway on that course for me to really put stock into it in my model. Detroit Golf Club and TPC Deere Run both feature a large plurality of wedge shots from Blue-grass rough, a skill that will be even more paramount at Silverado. TPC Craig Ranch, Caves Valley, and the Summit Club are also Bent-grass birdie-fests, but those courses at least feature a much greater amount of mid- to long-iron approach shots. Detroit Golf Club and TPC Deere Run are certainly the most apt comparisons.
  • The best players in this field at Detroit Golf Club have been Taylor Pendrith, Troy Merritt, Stephan Jaeger, Cameron Davis, J.J. Spaun, Justin Lower, Alex Noren, Kevin Eisner, Carl Yuan, and Peter Kuest. 
  • The best players in this field at TPC Deere Run have been Ryan Moore, Chris Stroud, Greyson Sigg, Dylan Frittelli, Justin Thomas, Mark Hubbard, Zach Johnson, Patton Kizzire, Scott Brown, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout. 

Model 

• Off the Tee (13%)
  • Good Drive Percentage (8%)
  • Long-Term Off-the-Tee Baseline (5%)
• Approach (28%)
  • Long-Term Approach Baseline (15%)
  • Long-Term Proximity 100-125 yards (7%)
  • Long-Term Proximity 125-150 yards (6%)
• Around the Green (8%)
  • Long-Term Around-the-Green Baseline (8%)
• Putting (15%)
  • Strokes Gained Putting: Bent/Poa (15%)
• Scoring Stats (25%)
  • Opportunities Gained (10%)
  • Birdies or Better Gained (8%)
  • Par 5 Scoring (7%)
• Comp Courses/Course History (11%)
  • Silverado (5%)
  • Detroit Golf Club (3%)
  • TPC Deere Run (3%)

Model Top 20

1. Max Homa
2. Justin Thomas
3. Eric Cole
4. Brendon Todd
5. Nate Lashley
6. Mark Hubbard
7. Doug Ghim
8. Stephan Jaeger
9. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
10. Chez Reavie
11. Dylan Wu
12. Cameron Davis
13. Andrew Putnam
14. Kevin Streelman
15. Peter Kuest
16. Akshay Bhatia
17. Ryan Gerard
18. Sam Ryder
19. Satoshi Kodaira
20. Ryan Moore