Sony Open: Statistical Preview

By RickRunGood

January 8, 2024

Forget everything you learned about Hawaii Golf last week. The state of play is the only thing in common from the Plantation Course at Kapalua to the Waialae Country Club – where the Sony Open will be played this week.

The Plantation Course is 7,600 yards on the scorecard and the terrain is dramatic, with a 140 meter difference from its lowest point (15m) and its highest point (155m). In contrast, Waialae Country Club is a mere 7,044 yards on the card and is one of the flattest courses on TOUR. There’s only a 17 meter difference from its lowest point (2m) and its highest point (19m).

There’s only two par-5s on the course and they are beyond gettable! Number 9 played to a 4.33 average last season, making it the 7th easiest hole on the schedule last season. Number 18 played a hair more difficult, to a 4.482 average and ended as the 46th easiest hole on the schedule (out of 1,044).

The rest of the course is no pushover with (10) holes playing over-par and the other (6) playing 0.10 strokes under par or more difficult.

The 3” bermudagrass rough doesn’t look penal, but looks can be deceiving. Missing the fairway last year cost you 0.15 strokes per miss – the 3rd biggest Missed FW Penalty on the TOUR schedule – behind just East Lake and Muirfield Village.

With accuracy being critical and the golf course skewing on the shorter end of the spectrum, it’s no surprise that short/accurate golfers have had plenty of success here.

The biggest difference, statistically, between Waialae and other courses that demand accuracy is that there’s a significant reward for hitting the ball farther than your peers do.

I’ve been working on a stat called “Long Drive Reward” which basically calculates the difference in scoring average for golfers who hit their tee shot longer than the average drive distance for that hole.

When you look at other courses with a big Missed FW Penalty, there isn’t usually a huge reward for Long Drives – except for here:

In short – playing from the short-grass is critical. Hitting it far is valuable. Hitting it far and playing from the short-grass is more rewarded at Waialae than basically any other course that you’ll see this year.

It’s a knife’s edge when playing from the teebox and makes it one of the most statistically critical portions of the game this week.

The second shot is always valuable, but it is less valuable here than other courses. The proximity buckets are all close enough to TOUR average to pinpoint one area of expertise. The one thing worth noting is the distance in which birdie putts are coming from.

This is important for a few reasons: 1) it demonstrates how close golfers are hitting it to pins 2) how each golf can compare and separate themselves within those distances and 3) help give a realistic view of the scoring possibilities at this course.

When you plot all the birdie opportunities at Waialae Country Club, the most come between 16-26 feet. About 21% of all birdie putts, whether they are made or not, come from that range. Now that we know that – we can look at two types of golfers.

Those that hit it within 16’
Those who make more putts from that range than others.

The names at the top of list #1 might be a little surprising. The golfers with the highest rate of birdie putts at 16’ or closer:

1. Kevin Yu: 26.5%
2. Si Woo Kim: 25.6%
3. Ludvig Aberg: 25.3%
4. Keith Mitchell: 24.9%
5. Corey Conners: 24.8%
6. Eric Cole: 24.7%
7. Tom Hoge: 24.2%
8. Chris Kirk: 23.9%
9. Hideki Matsuayama: 23.7%
10. Cameron Davis: 23.6%

FIELD AVERAGE: 21.7%

Now, let’s see if we can find the crossover names for golfers who make the most putts from 16-26’:

1. Grayson Murray: 20.7%
2. Tyrrell Hatton: 20.4%
3. Justin Rose: 19.8%
4. Ludvig Aberg: 19.2%
5. Aaron Baddeley: 19.0%
6. Dylan Wu: 18.9%
7. Stewart Cink: 18.8%
8. Camilo Villegas: 18.7%
9. Harry Hall: 18.6%
10. Justin Lower: 18.5%

FIELD AVERAGE: 14.8%

Just to put a bow on this – Ludvig Aberg has many many ways to separate himself from the field this week. The more I type, the more convinced I am that he will win (brave, I know).

The first full-field event does introduce some more fun (read: cut sweats). Plus we are going to get our first glimpse of Will Zalatoris in 2024. He’s one start into his return, a DFL finish at the Hero World Challenge where he lost strokes in all four major categories. It was ugly, very ugly. While we only saw Zalatoris eight times in 2023, it might be easy to forgot just how elite he really can be.

If you take the last 100 rounds for every golfer in the world, Zalatoris ranks 8th in SG: Total and 4th in SG: Ball-Striking. I’ll be focused very closely on Zalatoris to see where he is at in his recovery process.

Golfers in the field this week playing on a Major Medical Extension: