By Andy Lack

The 2023 Masters Final Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership 

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. Already this season, the Houston Open featured a 2.5 stroke wave advantage! As soon as we flipped the calendar to January, weather played a massive role in the Sony Open as well. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

One of the largest prevailing narratives all week has been the threat of inclement weather, and the possibility that delays could stretch this tournament to Monday. For starters, there has not been a Monday finish at the Masters since 1983, and such a situation would be an absolute nightmare for CBS. Tournament organizers may be forced to get creative on Sunday and utilize threesomes off split tees, but I’d be willing to bet that they are more inclined to break tradition if it means completing the tournament by Easter Sunday. As it regards to DraftKings, what we ought mainly be focused on is the weather forecast for Thursday and Friday, which both feature pockets of light rain. Predicting the threshold for what will cause a delay is near impossible, and we saw it two years ago at the Players where we knew that the weather was going to be a problem, yet the opposite of what everything expected was going to happen ended up coming to fruition. If I was forced to make a prediction of how this event would play out with no delays, I would tell folks to play those who are going off late on Thursday and early on Friday, as Friday afternoon appears to feature the most consistent high wind speeds and the strongest wind gusts. With that being said, if rain wipes out the afternoon wave on Friday, who knows when the next time they will see the golf course, as it is supposed to rain all day on Saturday. This is why my strategy would be to stack in both directions, likely more aggressively for those with a PM/AM bias, although there is no break between the tee times at the Masters anyway. All that inclement weather really means is that there is a greater chance that one group of players are more likely to be playing in better conditions than others. Predicting which group is often a fool’s errand, which is why I would advocate for the double stack approach.

Core Four

• Jon Rahm, $10,800 (Projected ownership: 18.8%): I do not even remotely have the courage to fade the big three, and I would not even say that is advisable anyway. As the lowest owned of the three players about $10K this week, Rahm at least presents one of the better values on the board. He remains the most well-rounded player in the world by my numbers, and both his short game and iron play have vastly improved this season. I will continue to believe that Augusta National was a built for him, which is hardly a hot take when considering the fact that he boasts four top-10s in six appearances at the iconic venue. Rahm remains one of the longest players in this field and arguably the best long iron player, and on a course that could play north of 8,000 yards this week, there is no better elite more primed to don the green jacket than the fiery Spaniard.

• Patrick Cantlay, $9,500 (Projected ownership: 14.1%): As the final cut from my betting card, I’ll turn my attention to Patrick Cantlay in DraftKings. I understand the lack of major success, as well as the fact that a Cantlay victory is up there with the most boring potential outcomes of the year’s first major. With that being said, the world No. 4’s skill-set remains a perfect fit for Augusta National, and he is far too good of a player to be held back from major success for this long. One of the most well rounded talents in the world, Cantlay enters this week in some of the best ball-striking form of his entire career. In seven starts this season, he’s recorded five top-20 finishes, three top-10s, and two top-fives, and this is most definitely the best that he’s ever driven the ball as well. Ranking top-10 in strokes gained total at Kapalua, Muirfield Village, and Riviera leaves little doubt in my mind that it’s only a matter of time before Cantlay tames Augusta.

• Will Zalatoris, $8,200 (Projected ownership: 10.2%): The pendulum has swung far too far in the other direction on Will Zalatoris. If I was to suggest in December that the 26-year-old would be $8,200 and coming in just a hair over 10%, most DraftKings players would be fairly shocked. Yet injury concerns, more social media fodder over short missed putts, and an overall slow start to the season has caused the hype train on Zalatoris to be paused at a stand-still at a tournament that he has finished second and sixth at in two appearances. For whatever odd reason, Zalatoris has been the best putter at Augusta National over the last two years. I have a niche theory that because he is a “die” putter, like Ben Crenshaw, that these greens are actually perfect for him. Not to mention the fact that although he’s discussed how a recent injury has forced him to get creative with his swing, he’s still shown that he’s a world class ball-striker with elite performances at the Genesis Invitational and Arnold Palmer Invitational. I think we are being given a complete gift on arguably the best major performer out there right now.

• Kurt Kitayama, $7,100 (Projected ownership: 7.3%): I know Kurt Kitayama is a debutant, but I absolutely love his skill-set for Augusta National. The recent Arnold Palmer Invitational winner is one of the longer players in this field, one of the best mid to long iron players in this field, and I completely trust his short game as well. It’s incredibly rare for a player priced this low to check all three of those crucial boxes, and I believe that he is being passed by far too hastily for the likes of Patrick Reed and Keith Mitchell. Kitayama is also coming off a quarter-finals appearance at the Match Play where he gained strokes in all four major categories, including 4.7 on approach. The World No. 20 is about $500 too cheap, and likely my favorite DraftKings play on the entire board.

Chalk Report

• $10K: There are only three players in the $10K range, Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, and Rory McIlroy, who in my opinion, have emerged as the three best players in the world by a healthy margin. Earlier in the week, my prediction is that Scheffler would come in as the highest owned, followed by McIlroy, and then Rahm, but that there would be no significant gap between the three. I still do not believe that there will be a massive discrepancy between the players, but I would actually flip Rory and Scheffler at this point. I have Rory coming in at around 26%, and Scheffler right behind him at 24%. At around 19%, Jon Rahm is certainly not sneaking up on anyone, but I do believe that he is a lock to be the lowest owned of the big three.

• $9K: The $9K range is where it really starts to get interesting. I had initially thought that Jordan Spieth would be the overwhelming chalk in this range, and while he will most definitely still be the highest owned player, I no longer have him rivaling Scottie, Rory, and Conners as the highest owned on the late. 18.5% feels just about right for the three-time major winner. After Spieth, Xander feels firmly supplanted in the 15 to 18% range, and I feel fairly comfortable about that projection. After Spieth and Xander, I would not say that there is a massive difference between Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Max Homa, and Collin Morikawa. I have all players coming in between 10 and 15%, with Thomas on the higher end, and Homa on the lower end. I do believe at this point that Cameron Smith will be in the single digits. As far as LIV players go, he’s $1000 more expensive than Dustin Johnson despite being in worse form. Not to mention the fact that he also might be battling a wrist injury. Smith should come in around 8 or 9%, but I still see no reason to bit as there is tons of leverage to be had in the bottom $8K section.

• $8K: There are three players in this range that are eating up significant ownership: Tony Finau, Jason Day, and Sungjae Im. I have Finau and Sungjae coming in at an even 20%, with Day not far behind at 18%. After that, Cameron Young and Viktor Hovland should be in the 15% zone. I’m a hard pass on both Young and Hovland this week. I would honestly rather eat the extra ownership with Finau or Sungjae, who have far more of a proven track record around Augusta. Dustin Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama, and Will Zalatoris, should all come in between 10 and 13%. As previously alluded to, Zalatoris is my favorite option of that group, but I have no problem with Hideki or Dustin either. Sam Burns and Matt Fitzpatrick are both locks to come in at single digits, with Fitzpatrick actually carrying the potential to come in below 5%. It takes very little exposure to find significant leverage on the defending U.S. Open champion, and he’s actually one of my favorite DraftKings plays on the board.

• $7K: The $7K range is packed with options, and the only player that appears to be  in the 20% zone is Corey Conners. The Canadian being chalk at the Masters has become an annual tradition, and over the past three years, those who have faded him have paid the price. Out of principle, it’s still going to be a hard no for me on the recent Valero Texas Open champion, as I refuse to believe that he is five times more likely to outperform Adam Scott or Sahith Theegala this week. Both are objectively better DK plays at their current projections of around 5%. After Conners, Justin Rose would be my best guess for the second highest owned player in the sevens, but I would be surprised if he crossed 16%. Tommy Fleetwood, Min Woo Lee, and Si Woo Kim should all come in at double digit numbers but below 15%. What I find most interesting about this range is that I do believe that folks are actually playing Brooks Kopeka, Patrick Reed, and Mito Pereira. I think there’s a decent chance that at least one of those three players comes in at double digits, which I would not have believed earlier in the week. Keith Mitchell could also find himself into the double digits, and I far from prefer Kurt Kitayama at the same price and a slight ownership discount.

• $6K: The $6K range this week is not getting completely ignored, and there have certainly been tons of instances where $6K players have been in winning Masters milli-maker lineups. I cannot understand the Tom Hoge love for the life of me. He possesses one elite skill-set that should serve him incredibly well at specific, short, positional short to middle iron PGA Tour courses, but he lacks the pop off the tee and short game prowess to contend at Augusta. I have Hoge at an even 10% as it stands on Wednesday early afternoon, and I still find that hard to imagine. I would guess that cooler heads prevail and the TCU product ends up in the mid to high single digits. After that, the only players really garnering a bit of attention are Talor Gooch and Danny Willett, but I would be surprised if either came in above 8%. Gooch is my favorite play down here by a healthy margin, and I don’t mind a flier on Harold Varner III or Adam Svensson either.

Best of luck this week – AL