With the 2024 golf season right around the corner, let’s dive into one of my favorite investment formats for the PGA Tour: One and Done. For anyone new to this, one and done is a season long contest in which you pick one golfer per tournament. However much money that golfer makes in that event is credited towards your tally. For example, if you select Scottie Scheffler at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, and he happens to win, you earn $2.7 million. Not a bad start. The catch-22 is that you can no longer pick Scheffler in any tournament for the rest of the year. That’s where the strategy comes in. Every tournament of the year, you have the opportunity to pick one golfer, but you can never pick the same golfer twice. The entry with the most total money at the end of the season wins.
There are a few key pieces to keep in mind with this format that will automatically give you a leg up over the rest of the field. Let’s break it down.
1. Pay attention to the purses
I know this sounds incredibly obvious, but most would be surprised at which tournaments are actually worth the most money. For example, last year, the Players Championship had a purse of $4.5 million, almost a full million higher than the U.S. Open. The Players is undeniably the most important week of the season for One and Done. You could totally whiff on the first three months of the season, but if you nail the Players, your season will be immediately revived. For what it’s worth, the WM Phoenix Open, the Genesis Invitational, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the RBC Heritage, Wells Fargo Invitational, Travelers Championship, and FedEx St. Jude’s Championship all have larger purses than both the PGA Championship and Open Championship. That’s right, signature events are more important in One and Done than the majors.
Field size is important to consider as well. For example, the Sentry Tournament of Champions has a purse of 2.7 million, but only a field of 40 players, and they all make the cut. Breaking it down, the dollar per player at the Sentry is $67,500. The PGA Championship on the other had, has a purse of $3.15 million, and 65 players make the cut. Thus, the dollar per player at PGA Championship is $48,461. Yes, the Sentry, a signature event with a smaller purse than the PGA Championship, is actually the more valuable tournament.
2. Use your studs early
The biggest mistake you can make in one and is not utilizing all the elite players at your disposal by the end of the season. What a waste. One truth that has been proven time and again is that our opinions on players will dramatically change over the course of the year. For example, Lucas Glover was not an option that any rational one and done player would have considered for the vast majority of the season. Yet Glover caught fire towards the end of the year, and he became an entirely viable option in the FedEx Cup playoffs. In fact, I’m sure that some folks smartly opted for the hot hand with Glover in Memphis over the player that they had originally mapped out for that event. The first half of the season is front loaded with elevated events anyway, which we have already established are more important than the majors.
Think about it this way too. There are 33 events in the regular season. If we think about the 33 best players on the PGA Tour, we should rarely have to venture outside of this pool. Writing out a list of these players may provide useful insight in terms of the caliber of guy that we should be limiting ourselves to on a week to week basis. It’s fairly challenging to predict a player’s schedule, but the farthest I would go would be to think about the types of players that always play in the weaker field events. For example, Jordan Spieth always plays the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial. This event rarely attracts a great field, but it’s become a comfortable spot for Spieth over the the years. For this reason, I’d think twice about utilizing Spieth at signature events unless you feel incredibly strongly about it, considering our prior knowledge that he will possess more win equity at the Charles Schwab Challenge. I use the Spieth example because it’s a foregone conclusion that he will play this event, but do not expect a player such as Cameron Young to play the John Deere Classic just because he did last year, or Justin Thomas to play the Rocket Mortgage again either. Those were circumstantial decisions for Young and Thomas based on their position in the FedEx Cup and Ryder Cup standings, which brings us to rule number three.
3. Be malleable with your priors
While it’s important to keep in mind opportunities such as Spieth at Colonial, I strongly disagree with the concept of mapping out who to play at every course based on prior performance. The reason for this is two-fold. Current form is far too large a part of the equation for us to pigeonhole the best spots for players months in advance. Week to week trends are incredibly valuable, and one we should prioritize, often over course history. For example, even if we had Spieth mapped out for Colonial, be pliable enough to recognize the full context. What if Spieth is struggling tremendously with his middle to short irons, which Colonial places an extreme emphasis on? If we can notice that in the short term data, we should not stubbornly stick to our priors. Just because the Cowboys have owned the Giants over the last half decade, circumstances change if they are playing poor football or are stricken with injuries. I disagree with the concept of an “auto-bet” in all sports, and we should operate similarly in one and done. Context is king, and in my experience, recent form should still be prioritized over course history. Even if Spieth is playing poorly and you have saved him for Colonial, there will always be a pivot option, which speaks to the value of modeling on a week to week basis. While you may have players earmarked for certain spots, it’s inevitable that you will feel differently about them when the week actually arrives. There is no need to be stubborn in this format. What if you had Viktor Hovland penciled in for the PGA Championship at Valhalla based on his course fit, but he wins the Masters. There’s no rule that says you still need to play him at the PGA if you don’t expect him to win back-to-back majors, a very rare feat in golf history. I cannot emphasize this enough, malleability on your priors is essential.
4. Trust the books
I’ve tracked this closely over the half decade that I’ve been playing one and done, and there is very little value in ever venturing past the top of the board. Don’t get cute. Unless you are completely disregarding the first three rules, there will always be a player available to you under 40/1. I’ve had good one and done seasons and bad ones, but I’ve rarely been in a situation where I need to venture past 40/1 unless I’ve done something stupid. You may not like that option, but unless you have an incredibly strong inclination that he is a bad play based on your modeling, trust the implied win probability that the books have laid out. Coming from someone who is incredibly reliant on his modeling, even I am open-minded enough to recognize that while my numbers may see cause for concern, there is still a reason why he’s one of the tournament favorites. Are there times when I go with my numbers and choose a player at 35/1 even if I have options available at 20/1? Absolutely, but I would highly advise against going too off the grid in this format. It’s simply unnecessary. In this format, the implied win probability that a sports book sets is your friend.
5. When in doubt, go with the less popular option
One and done is fun because there is still an element of game theory to consider. It’s not quite as much game theory dependent as a regular DraftKings contest, but you are still playing against other people, as opposed to a sports book. When other people are involved, one must always consider game theory. DraftKings ownership is usually a strong indicator of who will be popular in one done as well. I would not pivot simply for the sake of pivoting, but it’s still essential to consider that a lower owned player’s success is going to vault you up higher in the standings. On most weeks, if I’m having a difficult time choosing, I’ll let ownership be a tiebreaker. Following a hard and fast rule of selecting the lowest owned player in DraftKings ownership every week under 40/1 is an interesting thought experiment, and a strategy I believe far more valuable than others. Of course, that player may have the lowest ownership for a good reason. Thus, as I alluded to earlier, I would not follow any stringent guidelines with this, but there is merit to the general concept.
6. Play your position, but don’t get too wild
Playing your position in a one and done contest is crucial. If you happen to be close to the top of the rankings, a more conservative approach feels more sensible. A safer options to maintain your lead over the majority of the field is always your friend. On the other hand, if you are very behind the eight ball, a more practical approach may be to utilize unpopular players. If you happen to be correct on an unpopular option, the payoff will be far greater, and you will hop more entries in the standings. Even if you need to make up ground later in the season, I would still not venture too far down the odds board. Ownership, not odds, should always be your first look. Most weeks, you’ll always be able to find a player with low ownership that the books still believe possess a great deal of win equity. The only reason to play long shots in this format is because no one else does it, yet nearly always, there will be a player available to you close to the top of the odds board that is being neglected by other entries.
Finally, don’t start taking shots too early! Folks always seem to underestimate how many chances they have and how much money is at stake with the elevated events. I wouldn’t even begin to panic about your position on the leaderboard until after the Players. Even that may be a bit shortsighted. If you are still towards the bottom of the leaderboard by the time the Open Championship rolls along, I can understand a more high-risk approach. Yet the name of the game in one and done is restraint and consistency. Hundreds of players will forget to put their entries in during the opening months. You are already at an advantage from a purely common sense and due diligence standpoint. Hopefully these concepts will further help you on your path to glory.
