Before we dive into my three players, I want to begin with the caveat that the easiest answer to the “Most Likely First Time Winners Question” is Cameron Young. Or Tommy Fleetwood. Or Ludvig Aberg. Or even Eric Cole. I believe all four of those players possess a higher chance to win their first Tour event than any of the players I have listed, yet the point of this article is to highlight betting opportunities for more under the radar players at appealing odds. Let’s dive into my three.
Min Woo Lee
Min Woo Lee is already a bonafide top-30 player in the world and a favorite of many in the betting and DraftKings community. He already has three world-wide wins under his belt before the age of 26, with one of them coming just two weeks ago. Lee burst onto the scene at an early age, winning the US Junior Am at 17 years old in 2016. He turned pro in 2019, and cut his teeth on the DP World Tour for the next two seasons, before beginning to play more golf in the states in 2022. Lee still only has 28 career PGA Tour starts under his belt (including the majors), but he is one of the lone players under the age of 26 to have already recorded a top-25 finish in all four majors and the PLAYERS Championship. In 2022, Lee showed his meddle against the best in the world with a T14 at the Masters and a T21 at the Open Championship. He vastly improved in 2023, with 13 world-wide top-20s in 23 starts, including a runner-up at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, a sixth at the Players, an 18th at the PGA Championship, a fifth at the US Open, a ninth at the elevated Travelers Championship, and a runaway win at the SJM Macao Open.
What’s so encouraging about Lee is his ability to get it done on all styles of golf courses. The fact that he has already recorded a high end finish at every major, as well as two shorter, strategic Pete Dye courses, is no short feat. When diving into Lee’s statistical profile, his skill-set should translate ideally for the modern game. The Australian possesses tons of pop off the tee and is an elite putter. His overall approach play could use some work, and he does tend to spray it off the tee, but that did not prevent him from finding success at courses such as Augusta National and St. Andrews. His wedge play will absolutely need to improve (particularly from the rough), but Lee has already proven himself as a capable of long iron player, a skill far more correlated with major championships.
If I’m projecting a breakthrough at the PGA Tour level next season, I’d look in the direction of a wide open golf course that emphasizes distance over accuracy, long irons over wedges, and where putting is crucial. Lee is a wonderful sleeper pick at Augusta, and he is sure to do some damage in the Masters for years to come, yet a green jacket in 2024 still feels a touch ambitious at this stage of his career. I’ll settle for a victory at the AT & T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch, a golf course where hitting the fairway is of incredibly little relevance, distance is a massive asset, and a hot putter is a necessary part of the equation as well.
Stephan Jaeger
Unlike Min Woo Lee, Stephan Jaeger is no spring chicken. Now at the tender age of 34, Jaeger has been grinding on the Korn Ferry Tour (with some sporadic PGA Tour appearances) since 2013. After earning full status in 2022, the German has developed into one of the most consistent cut makers on Tour. Jaeger’s made cut streak currently sits at 15 and dates all the way back to the RBC Heritage in April. While Jaeger has become incredibly efficient at making his way to the weekend, he still hasn’t quite figured out how to find relevancy late on Sunday. While making 28 of 31 cuts in 2023 is an impressive feat, Jaeger did not record a single top-five finish. Others may be put off by his lack of spike performances, but I’m encouraged by the overall consistency, and this is a normal progression for any player prior to breaking through at the highest level.
Jaeger’s uncanny ability to always make the weekend can easily be explained by the well rounded nature of his game. While he is not elite at any one skill, Jaeger plays weakness free golf. Think of an extremely poor man’s Xander Schauffele, who carried the loser label for quite some time before everything clicked in the Summer of 2022 where he reeled off back to back wins in two high class fields.
Due to his well balanced statistical profile, Jaeger is essentially course proof, and a natural fit at most PGA Tour courses. His baseline in easy versus difficult scoring conditions is negligible, and he’s had just as much success on Bent-grass as he has had on Bermuda. Jaeger possesses a 0.7 standard deviation in proximity skill. Essentially, his advantage on courses with a large plurality of short iron approaches, long iron approaches, and approaches from the rough is negligible as well. With no overwhelming skills or deficiencies, the safest projection route is to lean on course history. Jaeger has undeniably played his best golf over the last two years at one specific track: Detroit Golf Club, host of the Rocket Mortgage, where he has back-to-back top-nine finishes. Expect Jaeger to finally realize his potential this year in the Motor City.
Aaron Rai
Aaron Rai almost splits the difference between Lee’s up and comer and Jaeger’s journeyman status. At 28 years old, Rai has been grinding on the European Tour since 2017. Between 2017 and 2021, Rai played primarily overseas, and he found considerable success in Europe, winning the Honma Hong Kong Open in 2018 over the likes of Matt Fitzpatrick and Sergio Garcia and the 2020 Scottish Open in a playoff over Tommy Fleetwood. Similar to Jaeger, Rai earned his Tour card via the 2021 Korn Ferry Tour Championship, and quickly established himself as one of the more consistent and underrated players on Tour across the 2022 and 2023 seasons. With a slew of top-20 finishes at difficult courses such as Torrey Pines, Memorial Park, and TPC Sawgrass, as well as birdie-fests such as TPC Summerlin, TPC Louisiana, Oakdale, and Detroit Golf Club, Rai has proven he can acclimate to golf courses of all shapes and sizes.
With that being said, Rai does have a far more distinctive and less balanced statistical profile than the aforementioned Jaeger. The Englishman possesses absolutely elite accuracy off the tee, ranking top-seven in the world in true accuracy over the last 12 months. Rai is a below average putter and below average in driving distance, but he has a serviceable short game and particularly excels with his long irons, both from the fairway and out of the rough.
If I’m building the ideal golf course for Aaron Rai, I would start with a track that heavily emphasizes accuracy over distance and places a premium on mid to long iron play and short game. This course profile is more sparse on Tour, which makes this exercise a bit more challenging. Wide open courses off the tee usually feature more long irons, while narrower courses are more highly correlated with wedge play. The regular golf courses on Tour with the highest missed fairway penalty last year were Muirfield Village, East Lake, TPC Sawgrass, TPC Southwind, and TPC River Highlands. While Rai has never played East Lake, in nine starts at Muirfield Village, TPC Sawgrass, TPC Southwind, and TPC River Highlands, he has made eight cuts, with five top-30 finishes. The issue with every single one of those options is that they are all elevated or playoff events, and although both of his DP World Tour victories came against strong fields, I’m still unsure that he is that guy just yet. In the spirit of fun however, TPC Southwind, host of the FedEx St. Jude’s, is a damn good fit for his game. Rai has gained over a stroke ball-striking in all four appearances there. He finishes near the top of the field in driving accuracy nearly every time he tees it up in Memphis. This opens up the door for him to see a large plurality of mid iron shots from the fairway, another skill in Rai’s arsenal, while others are struggling out of the tricky, unpredictable Bermuda rough. Projecting a FedEx Cup playoff win for Rai next year may be a tad ambitious, but make sure to earmark him as a potential long shot in next year’s FedEx Cup opener.
