By Andy Lack

The 2023 TOUR Championship Final Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership 

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. Already this season, the Houston Open featured a 2.5 stroke wave advantage! As soon as we flipped the calendar to January, weather played a massive role in the Sony Open as well. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

Thursday expects to yield perfect scoring conditions. We should expect some low scores and early leaderboard movement on day one. Friday will certainly be a bit breezier, but I am not seeing a marked advantage for those teeing off earlier in the day versus later in the day. With everyone going off in a small window, choose your own adventure.

Core Four

• Scottie Scheffler, $13,400 (-10): Although Viktor Hovland put together a historic back-nine to steal the trophy last week, Scottie Scheffler was still incredibly kind to us, and after lapping the field in tee to green once again, I see no reason to deviate. Obviously this week is going to require us to incorporate a bit of a different strategy. I would endorse leaving money on the table. I would also endorse making sure that you have the player you believe will win the tournament in your lineup at all costs. I think in some cases the starting strokes are over-valued, but I actually feel that Scottie could win this in runaway fashion. For once, we don’t have to worry about him spotting the field two strokes putting, and his tee to green play looked as stellar as ever. There were even some incremental improvements with the flat-stick. Thursday and Saturday were good. Friday and Sunday were bad. His tee to green rebounded strongly from a “down” week in Memphis as well. Statistically, East Lake features some of the most benign green complexes on the PGA Tour. Especially for a Donald Ross course, the greens here offer very little pushback. Thank god it’s getting a makeover next year, as these greens have lost a ton of their undulation and ridges due to sand buildup and the squaring off of edges over the years. Point being, these putting surfaces should provide a far more straightforward test than what Scheffler had to deal with last week at Olympia. If Scheffler got a two stroke advantage every week, he would have won or been in a playoff in 52% of his starts, which is just some absolutely wild stuff. The most fitting way for Scottie Scheffler to end this historic season is to win a completely contextless and opaque FedEx Cup title, because… golf.

• Sungjae Im, $8,500 (-2) (Projected ownership: : Sungjae Im has a great chance in my opinion to shoot the lowest 72-hole score, and I am completely enamored by his fit on this golf course. Im is one of the most proven Bermuda-grass putters in this field, and he ranks 10th in Bermuda tee to green play as well. He’s got five top-25 finishes and three top-10s in five appearances at Sedgefield, and a fourth at Innisbrook as well. Im also has some valuable experience on this golf course, and he has been one of only five players in this field to qualify for East Lake each of the last four years. A runner-up finish last season shows his growing confidence on the Ross track. A seventh at the BMW last week where he gained strokes in all four major categories checks the recent form box as well, and Im has now gained strokes ball-striking in four straight starts. It’s been a banner season for Im, with 17 top-30 finishes, and eight top-10s in 26 starts. While he has yet to cross the finish line this calendar year, I see him as an incredibly safe bet to work his way up the leaderboard this week in Atlanta.

• Tony Finau, $7,500 (-2) (Projected ownership: 18.8%): Is Tony Finau broken? Maybe. Has he been told that he’s already off the Ryder Cup? Maybe. This is Tony’s last stand, and while I certainly subscribe to the belief that if he could have flipped a switch, he would have done so already, I still feel that there is a spot out there this week for whoever plays the best out of Finau, Sam Burns, Keegan Bradley, and Lucas Glover. Last week, the six-time PGA Tour winner put together another ho-hum performance at the BMW Championship where he was a neutral ball-striker, and he gave a couple back on and around the greens en route to a middling finish. If he’s got anything left in the tank this season however, East Lake is the type of golf course that should accentuate what he does best. Despite a preference for Bent-grass surfaces, Finau still ranks fifth in this field over the last two years in tee-to-green on Bermuda courses, and he remains one of the best long iron players in this field as well. Even during this slump, his driver has still been steady, and he’s performed well at this golf course in the past. In fact, it’s been one of the only Bermuda courses where he’s truly been able to thrive on the greens. I mentioned the lack of difficulty of East Lake’s putting in regards to Scheffler, and I believe that this could be a solid confidence building week for Finau with the flat-stick as well. Most importantly, this is a week to capitalize on game theory, and Finau is fairly owned with a decent price for those starting at two-under par. It’s been a frustrating couple of months for a player that still somehow ranks in the top-12 in the world in true strokes gained over the last 12 months. Let’s give him one more shot to revert back to his long-term baseline.

• Si Woo Kim, $7,200 (-2) (Projected ownership: 19.9%): A frequent feature in this column, I’ll give Si Woo Kim one more whirl before the offseason. He was kind to us in the first event of the season at the Sony Open, and my hope is that he can bookend it with another strong performance at East Lake. While Si Woo has only played here once in 2016, his sterling track record at Sedgefield should be translatable. The former Players Champion is one of the most accurate drivers of the ball in this field, ranking third in driving accuracy, fifth in recent off the tee play, and ninth off the tee on narrow golf courses. This skill should be a massive asset for him in Atlanta, and it should not come as a surprise that many of his strongest performances have come at courses such as Harbor Town, Sedgefield, and TPC Sawgrass, which similarly emphasize accuracy off the tee. The ownership and price based on his starting position is more than fair, and I do believe he has the upside to take it low on this type of golf course. There’s never a dull moment rostering Si Woo, and he’s due for a good one.

Chalk Report

• $10K: We have ourselves a front-loaded range of $10K players this week, with nearly 30% of the entire field above $10,000. What this does allow is a fairly even dispersion of ownership. Even in such a small field, I do not believe that we will see a single player above 25%. Let’s do some rankings based on projected ownership:
  • Rory McIlroy, $13,000 (22%)
  • Scottie Scheffler, $13,400 (21.5%)
  • Xander Schauffele, $10,500 (21%)
  • Patrick Cantlay, $10,800 (20%)
  • Viktor Hovland, $12,500 (19%)
  • Jon Rahm, $11,600 (14%)
  • Max Homa, $10,900 (14%)
  • Matt Fitzpatrick, $10,000 (13.5%)

I’ve already shared my thoughts on Scottie Scheffler, our Tour Championship winner who will be in 100% of my lineups, but if I’m picking a second player to utilize in this range, its between Max Homa and Jon Rahm, who I both believe are under-owned. I’m intrigued by this buy-low opportunity for Rahm. I have obvious concerns about what’s gone wrong with his driver of late, but there’s enough long-term evidence to suggest that such a problem can be quelled at a moment’s notice. Coming off such a strong performance last week, Max Homa feels under-owned, and while I do believe he’ll play well this week, I’m not sure I can envision him holding the trophy come Sunday afternoon in Atlanta. Finishing points feel extra valuable in a 30-man field, and I simply believe you need the player in your lineup you think will be holding the trophy. For me, that is unequivocally Scottie Scheffler. I would say that I’m a touch less optimistic on Rory and Hovland than most. I don’t often get roped into an over-emphasis on course history, but I’d still favor Xander over Cantlay and Fitzpatrick as well.

• $9K: With only four players here at relatively low ownership, the $9K range feels like what is often the under-utilized $8K range on most weeks. My issue with these four players is that you are paying a pretty healthy prices for guys that I do not believe have that much of a chance to win (outside of maybe Glover?) Therein lies the reason for why these players are being under-utilized. The common building strategy appears to be, find the winner, maybe another player who can win, utilize the high sevens, and then go dumpster diving. A balanced build is certainly intriguing this week, but I feel you are giving up far too much win equity at the top. A 12.5% Lucas Glover will absolutely be in my pool. That is simply too low for where he is starting, his price, and how he is playing. I prefer a 14.5% Rickie Fowler to a 17% Brian Harman and a 13.5% Wyndham Clark, but I will be passing on all three. Glover is a very sound play in my opinion however.

• $8K: Only four players in the $8K range this week, and three of the four are carrying robust ownership. I have Tommy Fleetwood at 20.5%, Sungjae Im at 21.5%, Russell Henley at 21.5%, and Keegan Bradley at 13.5%. I understand why Keegan is the least popular of the four, and I certainly have more faith in his other three similarly priced peers. Choosing between Fleetwood, Sungjae, and Henley has been tough for me. I’m a big fan of all three and believe that all are sound wagers in the without starting strokes market. I’m particularly enamored by course fit as it pertains to all of them. Fleetwood, Sungjae, and Henley all raise their baseline on Bermuda and have sterling resumes at either Sedgefield or Innisbrook, my two most predictive reference courses. I don’t believe you can go wrong by starting with Scheffler, skipping the nines entirely, and utilizing two players in the $8K range as your second and third men in. That’s a common build for me this week.

• $7K: We’ve got some options in the $7K range this week, with most starting eight back of the leader. I have Collin Morikawa as the most popular at 23.5%, and I take no issue with rostering him. On paper, East Lake should be a great fit for Morikawa’s game, even though the results haven’t totally materialized yet. From an ownership standpoint, I’m not seeing much of a difference between Corey Conners, Tom Kim, Tony Finau, and Si Woo Kim. I’ll rank in terms of preference. I’m a fan of all four:
  • Corey Conners, $7,900 (19%)
  • Tom Kim, $7,900 (19.5%)
  • Tony Finau, $7,500 (18.5%)
  • Si Woo Kim, $7,200 (20%)

I actually slightly prefer Conners and Tom Kim to Finau and Si Woo, but I chose to highlight the latter in effort to create a core four that still left enough money on the table to have some options for the final two spots. On paper, I’m enamored with this course fit for Conners and Kim, two of the absolute most accurate drivers of the ball in this field. Kim has never played this course before, but his success at Sedgefield should be translatable. Conners’ course history is puzzling, but I’m not sure I expect that to last. Finau and Si Woo enter with more questions surrounding their recent form, but that is baked into price. I guess I should mention Jason Day as well, who couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat right now on approach. Since his runner-up finish at Hoylake, he’s been one of the worst approach players not just in this field, but in all of golf.

• $6K: Since pricing is so front-loaded this week, common building strategy is to utilize at least one or two of these players. From a game theory perspective, I certainly understand the concept of taking your chances on a player this cheap in a 30-man field who is guaranteed all four rounds. With that being said, when everyone dumpster dives, I see more value in playing Scheffler, and building out the rest of your lineup in the low eights and sevens. I’d be fairly shocked if we see much at all out of Nick Taylor, Adam Schenk, Sepp Straka, or Emiliano Grillo. I took a ride on the Taylor coaster last week and can report that the pride of Canada has very little control over his golf ball currently. Even understanding the building strategy, I’m still surprised that all four of these players will be well over 20%. I have Taylor at 20.5%, Schenk at 27.5%, Straka at 31%, and Grillo at 27.5%. I actually think Schenk is my favorite of that bunch, but none are making my pool. Working our way back up, I do have interest in Tyrrell Hatton, Jordan Spieth, and Sam Burns. I struggle with advocating for Taylor Moore coming off a performance where he lost almost 10 strokes off the tee on a course with no water hazards, despite his impressive resume at Innisbrook and Sedgefield. I almost went with Hatton in my core four for the third straight week, but cooler heads prevailed. The ball-striking was troublesome at Olympia Fields, and his my mind might be far more on Rome than it is on Atlanta this week, yet there’s still life changing money to be played for this week. Spieth and Burns both scare me, but I would expect both to improve on their starting position as the week progresses. Particularly Burns, who likely needs a ceiling performance to be thrown back into consideration for Rome.