2023 AT&T Byron Nelson Course Breakdown: TPC Craig Ranch

The Basics 

• Course: TPC Craig Ranch
• Location: McKinney, Texas
• Designer: Tom Weiskopf (2004)
• Length: Par 72; 7,468 yards
• Hazards: Water comes into play on 13 holes
• Fairways: Cavalier Zoysia
• Rough: 2’5” inch Bermuda-grass rough
• Greens: Bent-grass measuring 6,778 square feet on average, running 11.5 on the stimp

I’m not going to lie, it was tougher to get up for this week than most, especially with the PGA Championship right around the corner. While I can hardly contain my excitement for the upcoming festivities in Rochester, the task at hand this week lies in McKinney, Texas at TPC Craig Ranch. I recently stated on my podcast that I believed this was the least interesting golf course on the PGA Tour, but that does not deter from the fact that there is still plenty of money to be made.

This tournament has been one of the longest-standing events on the PGA Tour, but this is only our second year at the predictably dull Tom Weiskopf design. The last two years have essentially played out in the same fashion. K.H. Lee has won at 25 and 26 under par in successive years on the strength of elite par-five scoring, awesome iron play, and a hot putter.

In terms of the skill-set required, TPC Craig Ranch bears a lot in common with what we saw two weeks ago in Mexico. I would actually suggest that there is less of penalty for poor shots at TPC Craig Ranch than there is at Vidanta Vallarta. Both courses are wide open off the tee with benign rough and fairly large and wide open greens guarded by non-threatening bunkers. Despite the fact that water comes into play on this golf course, it is generally extremely easy to avoid, as TPC Craig Ranch has ranked on average 33rd out of 39 courses in penalty strokes per round across the last two years. The greatest defense on this golf course is its sheer length, as 35.2% of approach shots come from over 200 yards. With that being said, the penalty for long iron misses is fairly amiable.

Three of the par threes measure over 215 yards, and even the short one that only measures 147 yards played as the seventh-hardest hole on the course. The par threes played as the third, sixth, fifth, and seventh-toughest holes on the course. This is contrasted with a fairly modest of par fours. Yes, six of them measure over 450 yards on the scorecard, but in totality, they ranked as the second-easiest set of par fours on the PGA Tour. The 16th hole, which measures 492 yards, and the 13th hole, which measures 512 yards, are the two hardest holes on the course. Even some of the par fours in the 450-yard range aren’t that much of a challenge. Overall, the par fours ranked as the third-easiest set of two-shotters on the PGA Tour. The par fives are even more of a cakewalk. All four of them feature over a 40% birdie rate. The 18th and 12th holes play far closer to long par fours than they do par fives, with a scoring average under 4.5. In total, the quartet played as the seventh-easiest set of par fives on the PGA Tour, and all are reachable in two.

What you see is what you get at TPC Craig Ranch. I have respect for Tom Weiskopf as a designer, but I would not say that this is even remotely close to some of his best work. TPC Craig Ranch features some fun risk-reward holes, and some viewers may find it fun to watch players fire at every pin with little penalty for misses, but this is not a golf course that has the ability to make pros uncomfortable. It has the sixth-widest fairways to hit on Tour and the 10^th-easiest greens to hit. Even if this course plays on the faster side, as it did in 2022, TPC Craig Ranch is far and away the least penalizing TPC course on the PGA Tour schedule. Overall, it ranked as the second-easiest course on Tour in 2021 and the third-easiest course on Tour in 2022, which saw far more firm and dry conditions. The course did get a touch harder statistically last year, but barely to the point where it would change any part of my handicap. Let’s dive into the stats.

Stats 

• Off the Tee 
  • In 2022, 14.5% of strokes gained came have come off the tee, which is below the Tour average of 18.5%.
  • Across the last two years, TPC Craig Ranch has ranked 32nd out of 39 golf courses in strokes gained off the tee difficulty.
  • It did appear as if they narrowed the fairways a touch in 2022, as it was a fair amount easier to stay in the fairway in 2021 than it was in 2022. The main reason for this was softer conditions in 2021. The course featured the sixth widest-fairways on Tour in 2021 and the 13^th-widest in 2022.
  • It ranked 16th out of 38 courses in missed fairway penalty, compared to in 2021 where it ranked just 26th in missed fairway penalty.
  • TPC Craig Ranch also ranked 22nd out of 38 courses in rough penalty, eighth out of 38 courses in non-rough penalty, and 26th out of 38 courses in fraction of drives that resulted in a penalty stroke.
  • In 2021, despite this course being super easy off the tee, I did not find a strong correlation last year with driving distance. It’s only one year of data, but K.H. Lee was below average in driving distance and he ranked outside the top 20 in strokes gained off the tee. Players such as Troy Merritt, Daniel Berger, Jordan Spieth, Doc Rodman, Seamus Power, Harris English, Satoshi Kodaira, Luke Donald, Matt Kuchar, Hank Lebioda, and Brandt Sneaker all finished in the top 20 in 2021. Not exactly a murderer’s row of bombers. With that being said, distance should help on this course, and we still had longer players like Sam Burns, Charl Schwartzel, Scott Stallings, Patton Kizzire, Joseph Bramlett, and Jhonattan Vegas rise to the top of the leaderboard.
  • 2022 told a similar story. Of the top 14 players on the leaderboard last year, seven actually lost to the field in driving distance, including winner K.H. Lee. The top five players in driving distance finished 65th, 51st, 65th, MC and MC. Given the fact that this course is wide open off the tee and does not strongly penalize misses, the emphasis falls squarely on the second shot and performance on the greens.
  • Last year, of the top seven finishers in off the tee stats, only one of them finished in the top 10 of the leaderboard, whereas there was a far stronger correlation in approach play.

• Approach 
  • In 2022, 33.6% of strokes gained at TPC Craig Ranch have come on approach, which is below the Tour average of 34.7%.
  • Across the last two years, TPC Craig Ranch has ranked 35th out of 39 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty.
  • It featured the ninth-easiest greens to hit in 2021 and the 12^th-easiest greens to hit in 2022.
  • It ranked 23rd out of 38 courses in approach shots under 150 yards, and 35th out of 38 courses in approach shots greater than 150 yards.
  • K.H. Lee put it well: “I think here is irons game good and also putting, because a lot of guys a lot of birdie and eagle, so need to go low under par. I’m comfortable with the tee shot here. I hit really good iron shot and then I think that here is about iron shots, because a lot of guys make a birdie.”
  • 35.2% of approach shots come from 200 yards-plus, which is really the main distance bucket that we want to hone in on. A decent amount of approach shots (33.2%) come from between 150 and 200 yards, which still ranks slightly below Tour average. The only other proximity bucket that ranks above Tour average is 125-150 yards, but I wouldn’t worry about that too much. To this course’s credit, there is a fairly even distribution of approach shots between 100 and 200 yards, with 200-plus still being the key range. The best long iron players in this field are Tom Hoge, Adam Scott, Augusto Nunez, Luke List, Justin Suh, Aaron Wise, Austin Smotherman, Davis Riley, Brent Grant, and Ryan Armour. 
  • Again, this is TrackMan golf. I’m still looking a fair amount at long iron play just for the sheer number of times that players will have those clubs in their hands, but if players are below average in that category, it’s far from a deal-breaker.

• Around the Green 
  • In 2022, 14.4% of strokes gained at TPC Craig Ranch came around the green, which is just below the Tour average of 14.5%.
  • Across the last three years, TPC Craig Ranch has ranked 34th out of 39 courses in around-the-green difficulty.
  • TPC Craig Ranch ranked 31st out of 38 courses in around-the-green difficulty from the fairway, 27th out of 38 courses in around-the-green difficulty from the rough, and 28th out of 38 courses in around-the-green difficulty from the bunkers.
  • If a player is forced to rely on his short game here, it’s likely he is battling to make the cut. Any short game statistic is not relevant from a handicapping standpoint this week.

• Putting 
  • In 2022, 37.4% of strokes gained have come with the flat-stick, which is above the Tour average of 35.5%.
  • Across the last two years, TPC Craig Ranch has ranked 33rd out of 39 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty.
  • TPC Craig Ranch ranked 23rd out of 38 courses in putting difficulty inside five feet, 28th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty from five to 15 feet, and 33rd out of 38 courses in putting difficulty from 15 feet-plus.
  • These greens are fairly large, but they are not very undulating. You do not need to be a particularly elite lag putter here.
  • I have a fairly heavy weight on Bent-grass putting, not because the putting is difficult here but because separation occurs far more on the greens here than it does from tee to green. The best long-term Bent-grass putters in this field are Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Beau Hossler, Maverick McNealy, Seung-yul Noh, Justin Lower, Austin Cook, Mackenzie Hughes, Vincent Whaley, Scott Stallings, and Jordan Spieth. 

• Scoring Stats 
  • Looking at the top of the leaderboard in 2021, Sam Burns was first in par-five scoring and finished second in the tournament. Charl Schwartzel was second in par-five scoring and finished third. Daniel Berger ranked sixth in par-five scoring and finished sixth. K.H. Lee, who won, finished eighth in par-five scoring. Bramlett, who finished seventh, was tied for eighth with Lee. Jordan Spieth and Jhonattan Vegas both ranked 10th in par-five scoring, and they finished ninth in the tournament. Seven of the top 10 players on the leaderboard finished in the top 10 in par five scoring. 
  • 2022 told a similar story, as K.H. Lee led the field in par-five scoring and won the tournament. Spieth finished second in par-five scoring and second in the tournament. Of the top 20 players in par-five scoring, every single player made the cut, and 14 of the top 17 players in par-five scoring finished in the top 25 on the leaderboard. TPC Craig Ranch features one of the strongest par-five scoring correlations I have been able to find on any golf course. Not that the other holes aren’t fairly easy, but for whatever reason, the players that always have the most success on this golf course always destroy the par fives. The best par-five scorers in this field are Jordan Spieth, Scottie Scheffler, Eric Cole, Beau Hossler, Vincent Norrman, Dylan Wu, Nate Lashley, Matt Kuchar, Davis Thompson, and Kyle Westmoreland. 
  • Obviously, birdies or better gained needs no explanation. The players that make the most birdies per round relative to the field over the past year have been Taylor Montgomery, Jordan Spieth, Scottie Scheffler, Akshay Bhatia, Tom Hoge, Jason Day, Sam Ryder, Tyrrell Hatton, Seamus Power, and Brandon Wu. 
  • Of course, on a golf course where birdie opportunities are at a premium, I always want to identify the players who generate the most birdie looks inside 15 feet per round. The best players in this field in opportunities gained have been Tom Hoge, Davis Riley, Si Woo Kim, Scottie Scheffler, Satoshi Kodaira, Tyrrell Hatton, David Lipsky, Ryan Gerard, Tom Kim, and Hideki Matsuyama. 
  • The Byron Nelson is the token “easy scoring conditions” golf course. The question to ask yourself is, can this player get to 20 under par and keep up? Have we seen this player get close? Is he the type of player that can catch fire with his flat-stick? I have a hefty weight on long-term strokes gained total in easy scoring conditions. The players who have fared best on easier golf courses have been Seamus Power, Tom Kim, Tom Hoge, Scottie Scheffler, J.J. Spaun, Taylor Montgomery, Aaron Wise, Jordan Spieth, Mark Hubbard, and Maverick McNealy. 

• Comp Courses/Course History 
  • I certainly believe that it helps to have played this golf course over the last two years, but TPC Craig Ranch is likely one of the most straightforward, un-nuanced courses on the PGA Tour. The best players in this field at TPC Craig Ranch have been K.H. Lee, Jordan Spieth, Scott Stallings, Seamus Power, Matt Kuchar, Hideki Matsuyama, Troy Merritt, Davis Riley, Peter Malnati, and Ryan Palmer. 
  • My favorite comp to TPC Craig Ranch is actually TPC Deere Run, host of the John Deere Classic. In fact, D.A. Weibring was a consultant for both courses. TPC Deere Run is similarly wide open off the tee with Bent-grass greens. I would say the biggest difference is that there are not as many long-iron approaches at TPC Deere Run as there are at TPC Craig Ranch, and Kentucky blue-grass rough differences from Bermuda-grass rough. Other than that, I think this is the best we are going to do. It should not come as a surprise that Jordan Spieth, Jhonattan Vegas, Daniel Berger, Patton Kizzire, and Seamus Power have all fared well at both courses. The best players in this field at TPC Deere Run have been Jordan Spieth, Ryan Moore, Scott Brown, Adam Schenk, Maverick McNealy, Chris Stroud, Dylan Frittelli, Patton Kizzire, Seamus Power, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout. 
  • I looked a bit at TPC Scottsdale because of the Tom Weiskopf connection, but I am aware of the differences. The famous host of the Waste Management Phoenix Open is certainly more of a challenging course where there is actually more of a penalty for inaccuracy off the tee. Yet going through hole by hole, I can most definitely see the similarities in what Weiskopf was trying to accomplish at both tracks. The best players in this field at TPC Scottsdale have been Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama, Matt Kuchar, Byeong Hun An, Jordan Spieth, Tyrrell Hatton, Martin Laird, Ben Crane, Jason Day, and James Hahn.
  • I mentioned Vidanta Vallarta at the top, recent host of the Mexico Open. Vallarta features extremely generous fairways and large, wide open green sites, and a large plurality of long-iron approach shots. The best players over the past two years at Vidanta Vallarta have been Brandon Wu, Akshay Bhatia, Cameron Champ, Davis Riley, Eric Cole, Aaron Wise, Adam Long, Stephan Jaeger, Beau Hossler, and Harry Hall. 
  • Detroit Golf Club was the only other course I spent time digging into. It also features incredibly easy scoring conditions, very little penalty for inaccuracy off the tee, and Bent-grass greens. The top 10 players in this field at Detroit Golf Club have been Troy Merritt, J.J. Spaun, Nate Lashley, Hideki Matsuyama, Tom Kim, Stephan Jaeger, Jason Day, Tyrrell Hatton, Scott Stallings, and Doc Redman. 

Model 

• Off the Tee (0%)
• Approach (28%)
  • Strokes Gained Approach (18%)
  • Proximity 200 yards-plus (10%)
• Around the Green (0%)
• Putting (16%)
  • Strokes Gained Putting: Bent-grass (16%)
• Scoring Stats (38%)
  • Strokes Gained Total: Easy Scoring Conditions (10%)
  • Birdies or Better Gained (10%)
  • Opportunities Gained (10%)
  • Strokes Gained: Par fives (8%)
• Comp Courses/Course History (18%)
  • TPC Craig Ranch (6%)
  • TPC Deere Run (3%)
  • TPC Scottsdale (3%)
  • Detroit Golf Club (3%)
  • Vidanta Vallarta (3%)

Model Top 20 

1. Jordan Spieth
2. Eric Cole
3. Tom Hoge
4. Tyrrell Hatton
5. Tom Kim
6. Akshay Bhatia
7. Scottie Scheffler
8. Davis Riley
9. Mark Hubbard
10. Jason Day
11. Justin Suh
12. Lanto Griffin
13. Hideki Matsuyama
14. Trey Mullinax
15. Ryan Palmer
16. David Lipsky
17. Kyoung-Hoon Lee
18. Nate Lashley
19. Sam Ryder
20. Samuel Stevens