2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship Course Breakdown: TPC Southwind
The Basics
- Course: TPC Southwind
- Location: Memphis, Tennessee
- Designer: Ron Pritchard (1987) with PGA Tour re-design (2004)
- Length: Par 70; 7,233 yards
- Hazards: Water comes into play on 11 holes
- Fairways: Zoysia-grass
- Rough: 2.5-inch Bermuda-grass
- Greens: 4,300 square feet on average, featuring Champion Bermuda-grass, measuring 11 on the stimp
The PGA Tour heads to TPC Southwind this week for the FedEx St. Jude Championship, the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. The field has been shortened to just 70 players this year, and the event will no longer feature a cut. The FedEx St. Jude has undergone a number of structural changes over the years. Up until 2018, it was a regular PGA Tour event, which rarely attracted a strong field. From 2018 through 2021, it was a WGC, which yielded an illustrious group of winners (Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas, Abraham Ancer). Last year, it debuted as a FedEx Cup playoff event and was won by Will Zalatoris in a playoff over Sepp Straka. The 2023 iteration will once again be the first leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs, albeit a much more exclusive field. Since this event turned into a WGC/FedEx Cup playoff event, we have seen winners at 7/1, 11/1, 12/1, 55/1, and 25/1. Four out of the five years where this tournament has featured a quality field, we have seen one of the betting favorites triumph.
I’ll explain this more in depth once we start diving into the course, but TPC Southwind provides a fairly legitimate tee-to-green test. It is by no means a putting contest, and elite ball-strikers are often able to separate themselves here. Justin Thomas won here while losing strokes putting. TPC Southwind is a singular course in the sense that it’s a hybrid of all these different categories that we see on Tour. It’s not a short, positional, club-down course such as Waialae or Sedgefield, but it’s not a long, driver-heavy golf course either. It’s not a birdie-fest, but it’s not overly challenging either. TPC Southwind actually ranks squarely in the middle of the pack in terms of scoring difficulty. It’s very similar to Innisbrook in the sense that it does have some features of positional courses, but it’s long enough where we will see players hit their fair share of drivers. It’s also narrow enough where we should see some variety in strategy off the tee.
In terms of the hole-by-hole breakdown, TPC Southwind is a standard par 70 with four par threes, which all measure under 200 yards, but that does not mean they are easy. All of them historically play over par. The course also features 12 par fours, none of them being overly short or overly long. None of them are remotely drivable, as the shortest par four on the scorecard measures 395 yards. Eight par fours measure between 430 and 490 yards, which explains why nearly 70% of all approach shots come from 125 to 200 yards. The two par fives are the two easiest holes on the course, but third hole has just a 33% birdie rate, which is actually quite low for a par five. There are only three holes on the course that feature over a 20% birdie rate, so outside of 16, there are not a ton of true birdie opportunities at TPC Southwind. There are more holes with over a 20% bogey rate than there are holes with a 20% birdie rate, which makes a ton of sense given the 11 water hazards. All in all, it’s a travesty that such a vanilla, run-of-the-mill PGA Tour course with such little character continues to host what should be one of the most exciting and prestigious events of the season, yet here we are. Similar to the BMW Championship, there would be a lot to be gained from both the first and final rounds of the FedEx Cup playoffs incorporating a bit of variety, or at the very least, seeking out a more enthralling venue. Yet that’s a discussion for another day. Let’s dive into the stats.
Stats
- Off the Tee
- Last year, 12.8% of strokes gained at TPC Southwind came off the tee, which is below the Tour average of 15.3%.
- Last year, driving distance was right around Tour average at 292.4, and driving accuracy was just a touch lower than Tour average at 58.5%.
- Last year, TPC Southwind ranked 12th out of 38 courses in strokes gained off-the-tee difficulty, so off the tee has been the most difficult of the four strokes gained categories.
- TPC Southwind has the 10th-most narrow fairways on the PGA Tour, and last year, it ranked second out of 38 courses in missed fairway penalty, second of 38 courses in rough penalty, 10th out of 38 courses in non-rough penalty, and 18th out 38 courses in fraction of drivers that miss the fairway that result in a penalty stroke.
- You do not want to be playing from the rough here. My explanation for this would be that it’s really easy to score on this course from the fairway, yet really challenging to score from the rough. This is not uncommon at Southeastern Bermuda courses in the late summer. The true reason why a course like Detroit Golf Club can be bomb and gauged, whereas that strategy is less effective at TPC Southwind and Sedgefield, is because it’s far more challenging to control spin out of Bermuda rough than it is out of Blue-grass rough. When it’s really hot, it’s far more challenging to create a predictable outcome out of Bermuda rough. Zoysia grass, on the other hand, is incredibly pure. It’s almost like hitting off a mat, as the ball sits up really well. There is such a stark contrast at TPC Southwind between playing from the fairway and playing the rough, because of the difference between Zoysia and Bermuda, which is what we also see every year at East Lake.
- Here’s a few quotes that further illustrate this point:
- Daniel Berger, “You have it hit it in the fairway, otherwise it’s difficult to get close.”
- Fabian Gomez, “I’m the kind of guy that usually, my driver is straight. And in this course, you know, many holes, you need to be really competitive with your driver. And also, so many holes you need to play with a fade.”
- Ben Crane, “I got in the rough a number of times. I’ll tell you what, this is no golf course to play from the rough, it makes it so difficult. You get a lot of fliers, hard to control the ball.”
- Lee Westwood, “It’s quite tight. You need to drive the ball straight, although, you know, it does give you opportunities, where it’s not driver on every hole as well. But there is a massive premium on hitting the fairways here. You know, holes like 18, 12, you know, if you’re not in the fairway there and 15, you can make par difficult. You got to drive the ball well and hit the fairway.”
- Retief Goosen, “It’s a golf course where you need to hit a lot of different kind of shots off the tee. It’s not a golf course that you can just blast away at it. So you actually have a lot of holes with doglegs. You pretty much have no chance of stopping it on the greens with the rough.”
- Add all of this together, and 11 of the top 12 players on the leaderboard gained to the field in good drive percentage. Oddly enough, the one outlier was actually Will Zalatoris. I was pretty surprised at how poorly Zalatoris drove the ball last year, but he had tremendous control with his irons out of the rough. He did not create the easiest pathway to success with his driver.
- The prior year, 15 of the top 16 players on the leaderboard gained to the field in good drive percentage. The two players in the top 10 who did not drive the ball well (Sam Burns and Paul Casey) both gained over six strokes putting. Unless you are one of the best iron players of our generation in Zalatoris, or want to rely on a spike putting week, it’s imperative to drive the ball at TPC Southwind.
- In 2020, 17 of the top 20 players gained to the field in good drive percentage. Justin Thomas won while leading the field in good drive percentage, and his ball-striking was so strong overall that he claimed victory while nearly losing two strokes putting. A rare feat! Pretty much every single player in the top 20 drove the ball incredibly well.
- I do believe that off-the-tee play is rather important this week, and I would prefer to look at good drive percentage as opposed to just pure driving accuracy because it’s not as if these fairways are incredibly narrow. As Zalatoris showed us, it’s possible to play well here without being incredibly precise off the tee, but it makes the path to victory that much more challenging. Nearly every single player in the top 10 each year drives the ball well, and if they don’t, they are usually on fire with their putter. The best players in this field in good drive percentage over the past year have been Collin Morikawa, Scottie Scheffler, Russell Henley, Matthew NeSmith, Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Denny McCarthy, Viktor Hovland, Emiliano Grillo, and Hayden Buckley.
- Approach
- Last year, 44.8% of strokes gained at TPC Southwind came on approach, which is well above the Tour average of 34.7%.
- Last year, TPC Southwind ranked 22nd out of 38 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty.
- Greens in regulation percentage last year was just 62.7%, which is comfortably lower than Tour average. It featured the 10th most difficult greens to hit on the PGA Tour.
- TPC Southwind ranked 27th out of 38 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty from less than 150 yards, and 22nd out of 38 courses in approach difficulty from greater than 150 yards.
- The past two years, this event has been pretty much all about iron play. In 2021, the top five players on the leaderboard all gained over four strokes on approach, and the only two players in the top 12 who did not hit their irons well (Cameron Smith and Jordan Spieth) both gained over five strokes putting. In 2020, Justin Thomas, the best iron player in the world at the time, triumphed due to elite iron play. Brooks Koepka finished second gaining 8.4 strokes on approach. The only two players in the top 15 who didn’t hit their irons well (Xander Schauffele and Matt Fitzpatrick) gained a combined 13.4 strokes putting. Last year, Will Zalatoris gained almost eight strokes on approach, ranking first in the field. Sepp Straka and Lucas Glover both ranked top-20 in approach, and Brian Harman ranked fourth.
- TPC Southwind is undeniably a golf course where it’s easy for elite ball-strikers to separate themselves from tee to green. It’s a track that rewards great total driving and middle-iron play. Four of the last five winners here have been some of the most high-class ball-strikers of our generation: Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, and Will Zalatoris.
- The proximity buckets that we want to focus on at TPC Southwind are 125-150 yards, 150-175 yards, and 175-200 yards. 19.2% of approach shots at TPC Southwind came from 125-150 yards, which is above the Tour average of 17%. 23.2% of approach shots at TPC Southwind came from 150-175 yards, which is above the Tour average of 20.3%, and 22% of approach shots at TPC Southwind came from 175-200 yards, which is above the Tour average of 17.5%. The best short- to middle-iron players in this field over the past year have been Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, Cameron Young, Rickie Fowler, Si Woo Kim, Tom Hoge, and Sepp Straka.
- Around the Green
- Last year, 11.8% of strokes gained at TPC Southwind came around the green, which is below the Tour average of 14.5%.
- Last year, it ranked 22nd out of 38 courses in strokes gained around-the-green difficulty. TPC Southwind ranked 26th out of 38 courses in around-the-green difficulty from the fairway, eighth out of 38 courses in around-the-green difficulty from the rough, and 20th out of 38 courses in around-the-green difficulty from the bunkers. So in terms of degree of difficulty on short game shots, TPC Southwind ranks right around middle of the pack.
- TPC Southwind is definitely a course where short game will come into play because the greens-in-regulation percentage is lower than Tour average. Justin Thomas ranked sixth in scrambling en route to victory. Previous champions Brooks Koepka ranked first in 2019, and Dustin Johnson ranked fourth in 2018. In 2020, 19 of the top 20 finishers on the leaderboard gained strokes around the green. In 2021, the three players in the playoff all ranked in the top six in strokes gained around the green. However, last year, the course played a bit easier, and short game was less relevant. None of the top four players on the leaderboard ranked top-25 in strokes gained around the green.
- Ultimately, we mainly want to identify players who raise their baseline around the green on Bermuda courses, as it often requires a different technique from Blue/Bent-grass courses. The best players in this field around the greens on Bermuda-grass courses have been Matt Kuchar, Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Thomas, Chris Kirk, Xander Schauffele, Matt Fitzpatrick, Byeong-Hun An, Mackenzie Hughes, Scottie Scheffler, and Brendon Todd.
- Putting
- Last year, 30.5% of strokes gained at TPC Southwind came with the flat-stick, which is well below the Tour average of 35.5%.
- Last year, TPC Southwind ranked 28th out of 38 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty, and the prior year, it ranked 38th out of 40 courses in the same category. Southwind has traditionally been one of the easier courses at which to hole putts on the PGA Tour. Last year, it ranked 12th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty inside five feet, 30th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty from five to 15 feet, and 31st out of 38 courses in putting difficulty from greater than 15 feet.
- Here’s a quote from Lee Westwood a few years back, “The greens are immaculate, really. There’s no excuse for not making putts.” Daniel Berger echoed a similar sentiment, “The greens feel like I’m just at home and, you know, I love the Bermuda and I don’t even read grain here. I just look at it and it’s just from years and years of putting on it.”
- As previously alluded to, TPC Southwind is a course that does a really strong job of accentuating elite ball-striking. While the putting surfaces are incredibly benign here, the greens-in-regulation percentage is far too low to ever categorize this course as a putting contest. We’ve seen players win this tournament before losing strokes putting, and the degree of difficulty putting is among the easiest on the PGA Tour. There’s very little slope or nuance to these green complexes. I will of course be looking for players who raise their baseline on Bermuda greens, but overall, I would recommend being under-weight on putting metrics this week and turning your attention to total driving and mid-iron play instead. The best Bermuda-grass putters in this field over the last two years have been Tyrrell Hatton, Taylor Montgomery, Sam Burns, Andrew Putnam, Ben Taylor, Matt Kuchar, Ben Griffin, Sam Ryder, Tommy Fleetwood, and Brendon Todd.
- Scoring Stats
- When diving into agronomy, we often focus on which players raise/lower their baseline on certain putting surfaces, while rarely discussing which players improve/struggle out of different fairways/rough types. I actually think that the difference between chipping and hitting iron shots out of Bermuda rough compared to Blue-grass rough is starker than the difference between putting on Bermuda and Bent-grass. Especially when it comes to chipping, an entirely different technique is required. We already discussed the players who have been the best around the green on Bermuda courses in the previous section, but I wanted to give extra attention to the players who have been strongest from tee to green in these agronomy conditions as well. The best tee-to-green players in this field on Bermuda courses over the last two years have been Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth, Tyrrell Hatton, and Sungjae Im.
- While TPC Southwind is far from a pure birdie-fest, it still features a large plurality of approach shots from inside 200 yards, and scoring is absolutely essential on these short to medium-length par fours. Opportunities Gained is a statistic that can often help us identify players that are under-valued based on their scoring ability. It measures the amount of birdie looks a player generates inside 15 feet per round, and the best players in this field in this category this year have been Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas, Wyndham Clark, Corey Conners, Collin Morikawa, Jon Rahm, Cameron Young, Patrick Cantlay, and Rory McIlroy.
- Comp Courses/Course History
- In terms of course history, TPC Southwind ranks average to slightly below average in the predictive nature of its course history. There are certainly players who seem to show up here year after year, but the reason why they tend to have so much success is not due to some secret TPC Southwind elixir, it’s because they all tend to be really strong ball-strikers, a skill that Southwind does a strong job of accentuating. I don’t believe this is a course where I would give certain players a bump here if they’ve played well here regardless of their form. Recent tee-to-green form is always going to trump course history here. With that being said, the best players in this field at TPC Southwind have been Harris English, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Sepp Straka, Hideki Matsuyama, Matt Fitzpatrick, Collin Morikawa, Denny McCarthy, Sam Burns, and Jon Rahm.
- The best reference point in terms of comp courses for TPC Southwind is likely East Lake, host of the Tour Championship. The Donald Ross design also features very similar agronomy and climate. East Lake and TPC Southwind are really the only courses with sticky, unpredictable Bermuda rough, Zoysia fairways, somewhat tougher scoring conditions, and a number of medium-length to longer par fours. The biggest difference in the two courses is that Southwind features easier green complexes, yet still, East Lake makes a ton of sense as a worthy comp course. The best players in this field at East Lake have been Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Chris Kirk, Russell Henley, Justin Rose, Max Homa, Jon Rahm, Jason Day, and Tyrrell Hatton.
- The other course I would point to is Innisbrook, host of the Valspar Championship, which also features similar agronomy, tougher scoring conditions, and a ton of middle irons. It should not come as a surprise that we’ve seen many of the same names populate the leaderboard at each of these tournaments. The best players in this field at Innisbrook have been Sam Burns, Tommy Fleetwood, Davis Riley, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Matthew NeSmith, Patrick Cantlay, Matt Kuchar, Justin Rose, and Viktor Hovland.
- Two other imperfect yet interesting courses to look at are PGA National and The Country Club of Jackson. Running through leaderboards at PGA National, home of the Honda Classic, many of the same names as those who have had success at TPC Southwind (Lee Westwood, Daniel Berger, Justin Thomas, Tommy Fleetwood, Sepp Straka) seem to pop up. It makes sense in theory, as both courses require players to have really strong tee-to-green play. Both courses all feature a ton of water hazards and place an emphasis on keeping the ball in play off the tee. PGA National features a bit more trouble than Southwind, but both courses consistently rank top-10 in penalty strokes per round. The best players in this field at PGA National have been Sepp Straka, Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry, Justin Thomas, Byeong-Hun An, Eric Cole, Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose, Wyndham Clark, and Sungjae Im.
- Finally, from a pure agronomy and climate standpoint, the Country Club of Jackson, home of the Sanderson Farms, does feature the exact same Champion Bermuda-grass greens and stick Bermuda-grass rough. The Country Club of Jackson is certainly easier than TPC Southwind and is more of a putting contest, but in terms of climate, aesthetics and agronomy, there’s a lot to like. Not many of the same names are playing a FedEx Cup playoff event as well as a Fall swing event, but right off the top of my head, Sam Burns and Will Zalatoris have both had a tremendous amount of success at both tracks. The best players in this field at the C.C. of Jackson have been Denny McCarthy, Keegan Bradley, Mackenzie Hughes, Sam Burns, Sungjae Im, Corey Conners, Garrick Higgo, Cameron Young, Xander Schauffele, and Nick Hardy.
Model
- Off the Tee (16%)
- Strokes Gained Off the Tee (8%)
- Good Drive Percentage (8%)
- Approach (37%)
- Strokes Gained Approach (17%)
- Proximity 125-150 yards (6%)
- Proximity 150-175 yards (7%)
- Proximity 175-200 yards (7%)
- Around the Green (7%)
- Strokes Gained Around the Green: Bermuda Courses (7%)
- Putting (8%)
- Strokes Gained Putting: Bermuda Courses (8%)
- Scoring Stats (17%)
- Strokes Gained Tee to Green: Bermuda Courses (10%)
- Opportunities Gained (7%)
- Course History/Comp Courses (15%)
- TPC Southwind (5%)
- East Lake (3%)
- Innisbrook (3%)
- C.C. of Jackson (2%)
- PGA National (2%)
Top 20
- Scottie Scheffler
- Jon Rahm
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Xander Schauffele
- Collin Morikawa
- Rickie Fowler
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Patrick Cantlay
- Viktor Hovland
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Rory McIlroy
- Jordan Spieth
- Justin Thomas
- Corey Conners
- Tom Kim
- Si Woo Kim
- Tony Finau
- Justin Rose
- Wyndham Clark
- Alex Smalley
Best of luck this week – AL
