By Andy Lack

2023 Course Breakdown: TPC Summerlin  

The Basics 

• Course: TPC Summerlin
• Location: Summerlin, Las Vegas
• Designer: Bobby Weed, Fuzzy Zoeller (1991) with 2007 & 2018 re-design
• Length: Par 71; 7,255 yards
• Hazards: Water comes into play on four holes
• Fairways: 419 Bermuda-grass, measuring 35.5 yards wide on average
• Rough: 419 Bermuda-grass, measuring 2’4” inches
• Greens: 7,400 square feet on average featuring A1/A4 Bent-grass, running 11.5 on the stimp

The Shriners Hospitals for Children Open is a golf tournament in Las Vegas that was founded in 1983 and is played annually as part of the PGA Tour’s fall swing. It is currently held at TPC Summerlin, which has been the sole host course for more than a decade now. There has been some fun history at this event, and it will always be remembered as where Tiger Woods recorded his first PGA Tour victory in 1996.

The first important aspect to consider with TPC Summerlin is that this tournament is played at altitude, so it plays a lot shorter than the scorecard suggests. There was a fairly significant re-design in 2018 where many of the bunkers were relocated to account for players hitting the ball far longer. This felt like an active attempt to discourage the bomb-and-gauge approach that we have seen be deployed at many similar PGA Tour courses, although we can litigate just how effective those efforts were. Outside of one extremely windy year in 2017, PGA Tour pros generally tear this course to shreds, but that is not necessarily because this course can be over-powered. Extremely wide playing corridors and benign greens actually mitigate some of the advantage that elite drivers have and allow players of all shapes and sizes to compete here.

The 8th hole, a 239-yard par three, is the only hole on the course that features under a 10% birdie rate. Last year, TPC Summerlin played as the sixth-easiest course on the PGA Tour, and the year prior, it ranked as the third-easiest. The Weed/Zoeller design features the third-easiest set of par fours on Tour and the seventh-easiest set of par fives. The par threes do provide a bit of pushback, playing as the second, third, fourth, and 12th-hardest holes on the course. If players can navigate the four par threes in even par, birdie opportunities await. Seven par fours tip out between 400 and 450 yards, which explains the large plurality of short-iron approach shots. Only two par fours measure over 465 yards, and they come very early in the round. The three par fives are a cakewalk as well, with all three playing to a scoring average of 4.62 or lower and featuring over a 40% birdie rate. Even the 13th hole, which measures over 600 yards, can be reachable and features a 41% birdie rate. If you aren’t making birdie on 9 and 16, you’re losing half a stroke to the field.

Ultimately, you’ll be hard pressed to find an easier, more straightforward course on the PGA Tour. The golf course plays so short due to the altitude, and the fairways are some of the easiest to hit on the entire PGA Tour. A rather simple rule of thumb here is that the player who makes the most five to 15 footers will be the last man standing. With that being said, TPC Summerlin does feature some of the more predictive history on Tour, so there is something to be said for a comfortability with desert golf and a precise command over distance control in altitude. Let’s dive into the stats.

Stats 

• Off the Tee 
  • Last year, TPC Summerlin ranked 38th out of 41 courses in strokes gained off-the-tee difficulty. The year prior, it ranked 34th out of 38 courses, and each of the last five years, Summerlin has ranked as one of the five easiest driving courses on the PGA Tour. This is one of the absolute easiest driving courses on the Tour. The second shot is definitively more important than the first here. I would put less stock into a player’s off-the-tee skill at Summerlin than nearly any other course on Tour. As long as players can stay out of the desert, the Zoeller/Weed design is an absolute cakewalk off the tee.
  • Driving distance (303 yards) is far higher than the Tour average of 291 yards, which can easily be explained by the altitude and the fact that there is very little deterrence from hitting driver. TPC Summerlin features the seventh-widest fairways on Tour, measuring over 35 yards wide on average. Despite encouraging an aggressive strategy off the tee, driving accuracy (64.5%) is far higher than the Tour average of 58.5%. Last year, Summerlin featured the seventh-easiest fairways to hit on the entire PGA Tour.
  • Last year, TPC Summerlin ranked sixth out of 38 courses in missed fairway penalty, fourth out of 38 courses in rough penalty, and 16th out of 38 courses in non-rough penalty, which was a bit of an anomaly. For example, in 2022, TPC Summerlin ranked squarely in the middle of the pack in missed fairway penalty, and it was slightly harder than Tour average in rough penalty. If we zoom out, the non-rough penalty actually gets a lot graver, and the rough penalty gets easier. Translation: players need not worry much about the two-inch Bermuda rough, but staying out of the desert is paramount.
  • With that being said, TPC Summerlin ranked only 28th out of 38 courses in fraction of missed fairways that resulted in a penalty stroke, and it is comfortably easier than Tour average in overall missed fairway penalty. The missed fairway penalty being a lot higher last year than we are used to seeing is more an indication of how easy it is to score from the fairway. Last year, there was a stronger correlation in driving accuracy than there was driving distance. Distance is often mitigated here given the altitude, how short the course is, and the strategically placed bunkers. Tom Kim and Matthew NeSmith finished first and second last year, losing significantly to the field in driving distance but gaining in driving accuracy percentage. There was not some massive edge or requirement to be deadly accurate on this course because the fairways are so incredibly wide, but it is certainly important to at least be able to keep the ball in play. Last year, 18 of the top 20 players on the leaderboard gained to the field in good drive percentage, and the top four finishers all ranked top-10 in good drive percentage. The best players in this field in good drive percentage have been Matthew NeSmith, Si Woo Kim, Doug Ghim, Hayden Buckley, Andrew Putnam, Aaron Rai, Tyler Duncan, Tom Kim, Chez Reavie, and Ryan Armour. 
  • If players can accomplish this rather simple task of keeping the ball out of the desert, they will be rewarded with a scoring opportunity on nearly every hole. 75% of strokes gained last year came on approach and with the flat-stick. Having an extra 20 yards off the tee here is not a huge advantage, as less powerful players still often have a wedge in their hands. A shorter player who is strong from 100-150 yards will still possess a greater advantage on this course than a longer player who is weak from 75 to 125 yards. Rod Pampling summed it up adequately, “This is a good golf course for the shorter hitter. Would it be nice to hit it long? Absolutely. But you don’t need to. You know, it’s just a good course for that. You don’t have to be a bomber to do it all.”
  • With relatively little correlation at TPC Summerlin in driving distance, driving accuracy, or strokes gained off the tee, I would really only focus on identifying players who can keep the ball in play off the tee and rate out above average in good drive percentage. I really do believe that the first shot is de-valued here, as TPC Summerlin may be the easiest driving course on the entire PGA Tour. The long-term data does not provide a whole lot of credence to the idea that elite distance or elite accuracy is anything more than a luxury here. Two years ago, four players in the top six and seven players in the top 11 lost strokes off the tee. Short irons, scoring, and putting should be our primary focuses this week.

• Approach 
  • Last year, TPC Summerlin ranked 30th out of 41 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty. Historically, it has ranked as one of the easiest approach courses in Tour, although I would certainly contend that the degree of difficulty on approach shots at TPC Summerlin are higher than the degree of difficulty on the tee shots.
  • Greens in regulation percentage here is comically high (73.5%) compared to the Tour average of 64.0%. Each of the last four years, TPC Summerlin has ranked inside the top seven in easiest greens to hit on Tour. Last year, it featured the third-easiest greens to hit on the entire PGA Tour.
  • Summerlin ranked 28th out of 41 courses in approach difficulty inside 150 yards, and 27th out of 41 courses in approach difficulty greater than 150 yards. Fairly straightforward stuff here.
  • As expected, a large plurality of approach shots at TPC Summerlin historically have come from 100-150 yards, and this is certainly the range that we want to focus in on. Given the altitude and lack of long par fours, only 36% of approach shots come from over 175 yards, which is well below Tour average. Also unsurprisingly, the lack of medium-length to longer par fours crate a large gap between short irons and long irons, with only 23% of approach shots coming from 175-225 yards. The best wedge players in this field over the last year have been Russell Knox, Charley Hoffman, Eric Cole, Tom Hoge, Nicolai Hojgaard, Satoshi Kodaira, Tom Kim, Aaron Rai, Ryan Moore, and Dylan Wu. 

• Around the Green 
  • Last year, TPC Summerlin ranked 10th out of 38 courses in around-the-green difficulty, and historically, it has actually ranked as one of the more challenging short game courses on the PGA Tour. In 2018 and 2016, it ranked as the hardest around-the-green course on the entire Tour. While it has played slightly easier around the greens over the last two years, between 2015 and 2021, TPC Summerlin ranked as one of the 10 most challenging around-the-green courses on Tour.
  • Last year, TPC Summerlin ranked ninth out of 41 courses in around-the-green difficulty from the fairway, second out of 41 courses in around-the-green difficulty from the rough, and 20th out of 38 courses in around-the-green difficulty from the bunkers. Historically, the Weed/Zoeller design has been one of the more challenging courses around the green from the fairway, topping the Tour ranks in 2015, 2016, and 2019. It ranked second-hardest in 2018 and 2020. This may honestly just be a turf issue, but it’s something to keep an eye out for.
  • TPC Summerlin is also littered with bunkers and some of them are quite deep. In 2018, it ranked as the second-hardest course to get up and down on from the bunkers, and in 2016, it ranked third. I still would not recommend getting hyper-focused on bunker play as it is doubtful that a player in contention to win is hitting too many bunkers to begin with. This speaks to the double-edged sword of frequency vs. degree of difficulty. TPC Summerlin features one of the highest greens in regulation percentages on the PGA Tour. There will objectively be very few times per round that a player will be forced to rely on their short game. However, on the few occasions that a player does miss a green, they will often be left with a challenging chip shot. I would not recommend weighing short game the way that we would on a course with a very low greens in regulation percentage, but TPC Summerlin features the highest emphasis on short game for a course that ranks top-15 in greens in regulation percentage. Short game seems to matter a whole lot more in helping players get over the edge and make the weekend, but players at the top of the leaderboard are hitting a ton of greens in regulation. Six of the top 10 players on the leaderboard last year lost to the field in strokes gained around the green.

• Putting 
  • Last year, TPC Summerlin ranked 19th out of 38 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty, and historically, it has ranked as one of the easiest putting courses on the PGA Tour.
  • Last year, the Zoeller/Weed design ranked 25th out of 41 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty inside five feet, 21st out of 38 courses in putting difficulty from five to 15 feet, and 13th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty from greater than 15 feet. The challenging lag putting last year was more of an anomaly, as the previous year, TPC Summerlin ranked as the third-easiest putting course from greater than 15 feet.
  • Like all courses with a high greens-in-regulation percentage and very little resistance from tee to green, putting will play a major role this week, but the degree of difficulty is low. We’ve historically seen very strong putters experience success here, as because these greens are so easy to hit that the tournament often turns into a question of who the best putter on the week is from five to 15 feet. The best long-term putters in this field from five to 15 feet are Taylor Montgomery, Justin Lower, Emiliano Grillo, Andrew Novak, Chesson Hadley, Justin Suh, Austin Smotherman, Ryan Moore, Harry Hall, and Sam Ryder. 
  • There aren’t many examples of players being able to get away without rock-solid putting at this tournament. Patrick Cantlay finished second in 2020 gaining less than a stroke putting, but generally, this is not a course that does the best job of separating elite from middling tee-to-green play. Players have been able to succeed at TPC Summerlin solely on the strength of their flat-stick. Last year, 14 of the top 15 players on the leaderboard gained to the field in strokes gained putting.
  • While TPC Summerlin features Bermuda-grass fairways and rough, the greens are pure Bent-grass. The best Bent-grass putters in this field over the last two years have been Justin Lower, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Eric Cole, J.T. Poston, Beau Hossler, Justin Suh, Austin Cook, Patrick Rodgers, Lucas Herbert, and Adam Hadwin. 

• Scoring Stats 
  • The name of the game at TPC Summerlin is accumulating birdie opportunities and converting them at a high clip. This tournament often turns into a track meet, and it will be important to identify players who give themselves the most opportunities to score. The players in this field who give themselves the most birdie-or-better looks inside 15 feet this season have been Eric Cole, Chez Reavie, Luke List, Ryan Palmer, Ludvig Aberg, Tom Hoge, Kevin Yu, Alex Smalley, Charley Hoffman, and Kevin Roy. 
  • Converting those chances at a high rate will be a paramount as well. A bear minimum of three to four birdies per round is necessary to even possess a shot at making the cut. Some players average up to eight birdies per round on this golf course. This tournament has featured a cut in the -3 to -6 range, one of the highest on the entire PGA Tour. The players in this field who make the most birdies per round are Eric Cole, Nicolai Hojgaard, Cameron Davis, Dylan Wu, Emiliano Grillo, Ludvig Aberg, Tom Kim, Vincent Norrman, Akshay Bhatia, and Doug Ghim. 
  • In a classic birdie-fest, I will always be looking to identify players who are more comfortable in easy scoring conditions and seem to do their best work in tournaments where playing aggressively and going low is the main objective. The best long-term players in easy scoring conditions over the last two years have been Tom Kim, Tom Hoge, J.T. Poston, Alex Smalley, Eric Cole, Doug Ghim, Andrew Putnam, J.J. Spaun, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, and Ryan Palmer. 

• Comp Courses/Course History 
  • In terms of the predictive nature of its course history, TPC Summerlin is on the medium to higher end, falling right in line with courses such as TPC River Highlands and Sedgefield. There’s something to be said for gaining confidence in altitude, and desert courses just seem to fit certain players’ eyes better than others. It’s also worth mentioning many PGA Tour pros make their home in Las Vegas and are extremely comfortable under these turf conditions. Kevin Na, who now plays on the LIV Tour, is an example of a player who made his home in Las Vegas and experienced a tremendous amount of success at TPC Summerlin. Harry Hall, who also lives in Las Vegas and has finished top-15 in his only two appearances at Summerlin, may be a more relevant recent example. The best players in this field at TPC Summerlin have been Matthew NeSmith, Adam Hadwin, Martin Laird, Adam Schenk, Tom Kim, Webb Simpson, Harry Hall, Si Woo Kim, Chesson Hadley, and Hayden Buckley. 
  • Still, this course places enough emphasis on putting where we have still seen players succeed on their first appearance. Tom Kim, for example, claimed victory last year on debut.
  • It should not come as a surprise to find a lot of crossover at the American Express, a tournament hosted annually in Palm Springs. The American Express features a three-course rotation of the Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club, and PGA West Stadium Course. All three are desert golf courses with similar agronomical conditions that require little challenge off the tee, feature a high greens-in-regulation percentage, and place a great deal of emphasis on putting from five to 15 feet. The best players in this field at the American Express have been Adam Hadwin, Alex Smalley, Tom Hoge, Garrick Higgo, Ben Griffin, Taylor Montgomery, Webb Simpson, Andrew Putnam, Scott Stallings, and Jason Dufner. 
  • Although not in the desert, another golf course with a similar statistical profile is actually Pebble Beach. I believe that off the tee is also severely de-valued at Pebble Beach, and the emphasis instead falls squarely on wedge play and putting. The best players in this field at Pebble Beach have been Nate Lashley, Matthew NeSmith, Kevin Streelman, Michael Kim, Jimmy Walker, Scott Stallings, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Cameron Champ, Kevin Yu, and Trey Mullinax. 
  • While the biggest difference here would be the importance of long-iron play, TPC Craig Ranch is another driver-heavy golf course with fairly wide-open playing corridors and similar agronomy, where the accelerator needs to be on at all times. The best players in this field at TPC Craig Ranch have been Kyoung-Hoon Lee, Austin Eckroat, C.T. Pan, Ryan Palmer, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Marty Dou, Alex Noren, Joseph Bramlett, Vincent Norrman, and Scott Stallings.
  • There are a number of other birdie-fests that de-value off the tee play and place a greater emphasis on wedges and putting, namely Detroit Golf Club and TPC Deere Run, amongst others, and I will be looking at those courses through anecdotal research, but they can easily be accounted for in my model under the easy scoring conditions bucket.

Model 

• Off the Tee (6%)
  • Good Drive Percentage (6%)
• Approach (26%)
  • Long-Term Strokes Gained Approach Baseline (15%)
  • Proximity 100-125 yards (5%)
  • Proximity 125-150 yards (6%)
• Around the Green (8%)
  • Long-Term Strokes Gained Around-the-Green Baseline (4%)
  • Strokes Gained Around the Green: Bermuda-grass (4%)
• Putting (16%)
  • Strokes Gained Putting: Bent-grass (8%)
  • Putting 5-10 Feet (4%)
  • Putting 10-15 Feet (4%)
• Scoring Stats (28%)
  • Opportunities Gained (10%)
  • Birdies or Better Gained (10%)
  • Strokes Gained Total: Easy Scoring Conditions (8%)
• Comp Courses/Course History (16%)
  • TPC Summerlin (6%)
  • Pebble Beach (3%)
  • TPC Craig Ranch (3%)
  • TPC Stadium Course (2%)
  • La Quinta Country Club (2%)

Top 20

1. Eric Cole
2. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
3. Doug Ghim
4. Mark Hubbard
5. Si Woo Kim
6. J.T. Poston
7. Tom Kim
8. Nicolai Hojgaard
9. Cameron Davis
10. Tom Hoge
11. Andrew Putnam
12. Aaron Rai
13. Sam Ryder
14. Adam Schenk
15. J.J. Spaun
16. Dylan Wu
17. Davis Riley
18. Emiliano Grillo
19. Nick Taylor
20. Alex Smalley