By Andy Lack

2023 TPC Twin Cities Course Breakdown: TPC Twin Cities 

The Basics 

• Course: TPC Twin Cities
• Location: Blaine, Minnesota
• Designer: Arnold Palmer with a Tim Herron & Tom Lehman renovation in 2018
• Length: Par 71; 7,431 yards
• Hazards: Water comes into play on 15 holes
• Fairways: Bent-grass (35 yards wide on average)
• Rough: Blue-grass with Fescue (3 inches)
• Greens: 6,500 square feet (Bent-grass) running 12 on the stimp

TPC Twin Cities is a fairly standard, run of the mill, vanilla PGA Tour course. There’s room off the tee, but there’s water at every turn. It very much rewards aggressive play, and there are a fair amount of risk/reward holes, but water is still the defining feature of the Arnold Palmer design. TPC Twin Cities features very large greens with very little undulation and a decently challenging set of longer par fives and par threes. Three of the four par threes measure over 200 yards, and all three of the par fives measure between 590 and 600 yards, yet players can still generally reach in two. There’s some altitude at this course as well, but with five par fours measuring over 450 yards and two par fours over 500 yards, TPC Twin Cities is by no means short. It ranks 18th out of 38 courses in yardage, and the Palmer design is fairly driver-heavy for how much water it does feature. TPC Twin Cities is very similar to a Florida course in the way that water is such a defining characteristic. Last year, it ranked second out of 40 courses in penalty strokes per round, and it has ranked inside the top six in this category each of the last four years.

I wouldn’t call TPC Twin Cities a pure birdie fest with the amount of water on this course, and we are going to see some fairly big numbers this week. It ranked as the fifth-easiest course on Tour in its first year, and the fourth-easiest course on Tour in its second year, but tournament organizers started to do a much better job with set-up across 2021 and 2022. In 2021, it ranked middle of the pack in terms of difficulty, and Cameron Champ prevailed at a modest 15-under par. Last year, it ranked 16th out of 38 courses in difficulty, so each of the last four years, the course has played progressively more challenging. That can be explained by the fact that we’ve gotten a bit more wind the last two years, and it’s played firmer as well. Although this event has the rep of a Bent-grass birdie-fest, TPC Twin Cities has far more PGA National in it than it does TPC Deere Run. Let’s dive into the stats.

Stats 

• Off the Tee 
  • Last year, 21.0% of strokes gained at TPC Twin Cities came off the tee, which is comfortably above the Tour average of 15.3%. The event average is still 19.7%, well above Tour average. TPC Twin Cities is definitively a golf course where the first shot matters. 
  • Last year, TPC Twin Cities ranked 21st out of 38 courses in off-the-tee difficulty, and each of the last four years, it has ranked right around middle of the pack in terms of off-the-tee difficulty.
  • Last year, TPC Twin Cities featured the ninth-easiest fairways to hit on the PGA Tour, and it usually ranks right around middle of the pack in driving accuracy. The fairways are on the wider side (14th-widest on the PGA Tour), but it is a driver-heavy course as well, and the penalty for missing is on the graver side.
  • Last year, TPC Twin Cities ranked 11th out of 38 courses in missed fairway penalty, and each of the last four years, it has ranked inside the top 11 in missed fairway penalty.
  • The rough is really not much of a huge issue at this course. TPC Twin Cities is simply all about avoiding the water. TPC Twin Cities ranked fifth out of 38 courses in fraction of missed fairway drives that result in a penalty stroke. It ranks second out of 38 courses in penalty strokes per round, and sixth out of 38 courses in reloads per round. So while there are plenty of birdies to found at TPC Twin Cities, big numbers are lurking at every turn as well.
  • For this reason, it’s a great week to look at good drive percentage. Players will not need to be a super accurate driver of the ball to have success at TPC Twin Cities, but there is a massive penalty for complete foul balls. Good drive percentage can help me identify the players that are not necessarily the most accurate drivers in the world, but those who keep the ball in play off the tee and put themselves in a position to hit the green in regulation. Last year, every single one of the top 10 players on the leaderboard gained to the field in good drive percentage. The best players in this field in good drive percentage this year have been Lucas Glover, Matthew NeSmith, Chez Reavie, Ryan Armour, Tyler Duncan, Aaron Rai, Doug Ghim, Kevin Yu, Michael Kim, and Mark Hubbard. 
  • As far as distance goes, it’s hard to look at a course such as TPC Twin Cities and suggest that distance doesn’t help when players such as Matthew Wolff, Cameron Champ, Keith Mitchell, Jhonattan Vegas, and Tony Finau have populated the leaderboard. Yet last year, only eight of the top 15 players on the leaderboard gained to the field in driving distance, while 11 of the top 15 players gained in good drive percentage. 2022 felt like more of a year for bombers, as each of the top six players on the leaderboard gained to the field in driving distance. Yet they still gained in good drive percentage as well, proving that players cannot simply bomb away aimlessly. Looking a bit farther down the leaderboard, and a lot of names such as Ryan Armour, Brian Stuard, Brandt Snedeker, Chez Reavie, Luke Donald, and Brice Garnett are all popping up. Distance is far from a pre-requisite, but it certainly helps.
  • Overall, TPC Twin Cities is a course where driving is incredibly important. Michael Thompson did win here losing slightly off the tee, but he also gained a combined 14.7 strokes putting and approach. 21.0% of strokes gained at TPC Twin Cities came off the tee last year, and each of the top five players on the leaderboard gained over a stroke off the tee. While it had initially felt in the first two iterations of this event that TPC Twin Cities was a bomb-and-gauge course, similar to Detroit Golf Club, but over a larger sample size, the Arnold Palmer design has proven to be far more of an accuracy-biased golf course. Last year, 25 out of the top 30 players on the leaderboard gained to the field in driving accuracy. The most purely accurate drivers of the ball in this field are Ryan Armour, Aaron Rai, Ryan Moore, Satoshi Kodaira, Lucas Glover, Adam Long, Zac Blair, Tyler Duncan, Doug Ghim, and Andrew Landry. 

• Approach 
  • Last year, 37.5% of strokes gained at TPC Twin Cities came on approach, which is comfortably above the Tour average of 34.8%. The event average rises even higher to 40.8%. TPC Twin Cities is one of the most approach-heavy courses on the PGA Tour. 
  • Each of the top 15 players on the leaderboard in 2019 gained strokes on approach. Each of the top 12 on the leaderboard in 2020 gained strokes on approach. In 2021, 13 of the top 15 gained strokes on approach. Last year, every single one of the top five players gained over five strokes on approach. Elite iron play is absolutely essential on this course to find your way to the top of the leaderboard.
  • Last year, TPC Twin Cities ranked 12th out of 38 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty, and each of the last four years, it has gotten successively more challenging on approach.
  • Last year, TPC Twin Cities ranked right around middle of the pack in greens in regulation percentage, and it has featured harder-to-hit greens each of the last two years. It ranks middle of the pack in approach difficulty inside 150 yards, and on the tougher side in approach difficulty from over 150 yards.
  • 20.6% of approach shots at TPC Twin Cities came from 150-175 yards, which is slightly above the Tour average of 20.3%. 20.3% of approach shots have come from 175-200 yards, which is above the Tour average of 17.5%. 23.8% of approach shots have come from 200 yards-plus, which is slightly above the Tour average of 22.9%. Nearly two-thirds of all approach shots at TPC Twin Cities have come from over 150 yards. TPC Twin Cities is definitively a mid- to long-iron course. The best mid- to long-iron players in this field have been Cameron Young, Gary Woodland, Tom Hoge, Hideki Matsuyama, Cameron Davis, Lucas Glover, Chez Reavie, Justin Lower, Carl Yuan, and Trey Mullinax. 

• Around the Green 
  • Last year, just 8.3% of strokes gained at TPC Twin Cities came around the green, which is well below the Tour average of 14.5%. The event average is only 9.9% as well, so this is one of the least short game-dependent courses on the entire PGA Tour.
  • Last year, TPC Twin Cities ranked 25th out of 38 courses in strokes gained around-the-green difficulty, and each of the last four years, it has ranked right around middle of the pack in around-the-green difficulty.
  • Last year, TPC Twin Cities ranked 35th out of 38 courses in strokes gained around-the-green difficulty from the fairway, 18th out of 38 courses in around-the-green difficulty from the rough, and 10th out of 38 courses in around the green difficulty from the bunkers.
  • With a higher-than-average greens-in-regulation percentage and incredibly easy green-side surrounds, around-the-green play is of little relevance in this tournament. The main challenge as it pertains to around the green play at TPC Twin Cities are the bunkers, of which there are many of on this golf course. TPC Twin Cities has ranked inside the top 12 in around-the-green difficulty out of the bunkers each of the last four years. The best bunker players in this field over the past year have been Matt Kuchar, Dylan Wu, Ben Griffin, S.H. Kim, Tano Goya, Lanto Griffin, William McGirt, Austin Cook, Robby Shelton, and David Lingmerth. 

• Putting 
  • Last year, 33.2% of strokes gained at TPC Twin Cities have come with the flat-stick, which is below the Tour average of 35.%. The event average of 29.6% is even lower. Say what you want about TPC Twin Cities, but it’s certainly not a putting contest. 
  • Last year, TPC Twin Cities ranked 25th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty, and each of the last four years, it has ranked as one of the easiest putting courses on the entire PGA Tour. Putting is undeniably the easiest aspect of TPC Twin Cities. The difficulty on this course is avoiding hazards off the tee and on approach, but once players get onto the green, they will be left with incredibly straightforward putts.
  • TPC Twin Cities ranked 21st out of 38 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty inside five feet, 13th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty from five to 15 feet, and 37th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty from greater than 15 feet. It has consistently ranked as one of the three easiest lag putting courses on the PGA Tour each of the last four years.
  • Unlike other Bent-grass birdie-fests such as Detroit Golf Club and TPC Deere Run, catching a hot putter at TPC Twin Cities is far less important. The only putting metric that I am looking at this week (I am still quite under-weight) is Bent-grass putting, as it is still valuable to identify the players that raise their baseline on this surface. The best Bent-grass putters in this field over the last two years have been Justin Lower, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Seung-yul Noh, Beau Hossler, Justin Suh, Patrick Rodgers, Austin Cook, J.T. Poston, Eric Cole, and Harry Higgs. 

• Scoring Stats 
  • What’s interesting about TPC Twin Cities is that because of all the water, there’s so much scoring variance. 17 of the 18 holes feature over a 10% birdie rate, 50% of the holes feature over a 20% birdie rate, but 12 of the 18 holes also feature a 10% bogey rate. There are inevitably going to be times when players find the water here. Bogeys are simply unavoidable here, which is why taking advantage of birdie opportunities is essential. We aren’t going to see many bogey-free rounds at TPC Twin Cities, but we will see streaks and players have rounds with six or seven birdies. It will be essential to identify the best birdie-makers in this field. The players who have made the most birdies per round over the last year have been Eric Cole, Sahith Theegala, Taylor Montgomery, Cameron Young, Vincent Norrman, Nicolai Hojgaard, Brandon Wu, Tony Finau, Sungjae Im, and Peter Kuest. 
  • Top-10 finishers at this course did gain far more strokes on the three par fives relative to the field than they did on the par threes and par fours. Taking advantage of the par fives is essential at TPC Twin Cities. The best par-five scorers in this field have been Davis Thompson, Ludvig Aberg, Tony Finau, Richy Werenski, Vincent Norrman, Cameron Davis, Sungjae Im, Justin Thomas, Dylan Wu, and Matt Kuchar. 

• Comp Courses/Course History 
  • In terms of actual course history, TPC Twin Cities has proven to be the least predictive on the PGA Tour. Yes, there is a lot of water on this course, but that doesn’t necessarily equate to a complex strategy. These are some of the least nuanced greens on the PGA Tour as well. Yes, there are a few players that have performed well here consistently, but Cameron Champ and Michael Thompson both missed the cut here in the year prior to winning. The best players at TPC Twin Cities over the past four years have been Sungjae Im, Tony Finau, Adam Hadwin, Emiliano Grillo, Callum Tarren, Greyson Sigg, Adam Long, Brice Garnett, Alex Noren, and Cameron Davis. 
  • I can’t really say that Arnold Palmer has any defining features as an architect, but a couple of other PGA Tour courses that the legendary Hall of Famer has designed include Bay Hill and TPC Boston. I’m not sure either have a ton in common with TPC Twin Cities. Bay Hill is extremely water-heavy, but it’s also far more challenging and distance-biased than TPC Twin Cities. TPC Boston certainly isn’t a terrible comp, but there are certainly other courses that I prefer.
  • TPC Twin Cities bears resemblance to a Florida golf course in its water-heavy design. The big difference between TPC Twin Cities and all Florida courses is the agronomy. Yet golf courses such as TPC Sawgrass, PGA National, and the Concession are all courses defined by water, where big numbers are lurking at every turn. Here’s what Michael Thompson, 2020 champion, had to say about TPC Twin Cities as it pertains to PGA National, “It is very much like PGA National this course. You know what shots you have to hit. There’s no if, and, or but about it, you’ve just got to step up and hit the shot, execute.” Thompson is absolutely correct. Many incorrectly believe that water equates to strategy, but water actually removes a great deal of strategy from the equation. Courses such as PGA National or TPC Twin Cities are target-based in their approach, and all about execution. Both courses dictate exactly where you can and can’t hit the ball. If you don’t have a lot of confidence in where your ball is going, you are going to have some penalty strokes. The best players in this field at PGA National have been Sepp Straka, Justin Thomas, Gary Woodland, Sungjae Im, Lucas Glover, Eric Cole, Billy Horschel, Sam Ryder, Lee Hodges, and C.T. Pan.
  • Looking at what skill-sets are most important at TPC Twin Cities, accuracy off the tee really jumps off the page, and that is because you can get sidetracked here so quickly with all of the hazards. This speaks to the aforementioned PGA National comparison but also leads me in the direction of TPC Sawgrass, another golf course that ranks among the highest on Tour in accuracy bias and penalty strokes per round. TPC Twin Cities is certainly more of a driver-heavy course than TPC Sawgrass. It is a fair bit longer than Sawgrass and does feature wider landing areas off the tee, but the character of both courses is all about avoiding landmines off the tee. The best players in this field at TPC Sawgrass have been Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas, Tom Hoge, Justin Suh, Erik Van Rooyen, Adam Svensson, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Sungjae Im, Brandon Wu, and Aaron Rai. 
  • After watching how this tournament has played out over the last two years, I’m less in the camp that this is a course that should be compared to some of the other Bent-grass birdie-fests such as Detroit Golf Club and TPC Deere Run. There is certainly some crossover on the leaderboards among those two, as all three courses require players to play aggressively and go out and make birdies. TPC Deere Run and Detroit Golf Club are examples of this, but I believe that TPC Twin Cities is inherently more difficult than both of those courses simply because there is far more water. TPC Deere Run and Detroit Golf Club are more pure putting contests and provide less resistance from tee to green. I think the summer Bent-grass course that is actually the best reference point is TPC River Highlands. Yes, the home of the Travelers Championship is far shorter than TPC Twin Cities and more of a wedge-fest, but both courses are still heavily accuracy-biased. TPC Twin Cities does feel a lot to me like a Pete Dye course in its sightlines off the tee and target style of golf. The best players in this field at TPC River Highlands have been Chez Reavie, Kevin Streelman, Ryan Moore, Chris Stroud, Mackenzie Hughes, Charley Hoffman, Beau Hossler, Sahith Theegala, Patrick Rodgers, and Seung-yul Noh. 

Model 

• Off the Tee (23%)
  • Recent Off-the-Tee Form (8%)
  • Good Drive Percentage (8%)
  • Driving Accuracy Percentage (7%)
• Approach (33%)
  • Recent Approach Form (18%)
  • Long-Term Proximity 150-175 yards (5%)
  • Long-Term Proximity 175-200 yards (5%)
  • Long-Term Proximity 200 yards-plus (5%)
• Around the Green (6%)
  • Sand Save Percentage (6%)
• Putting (8%)
  • Strokes Gained Putting: Bent-grass (8%)
• Scoring Stats (15%)
  • Birdies or Better Gained (10%)
  • Strokes Gained: Par Fives (5%)
• Comp Courses/Course History (15%)
  • TPC Twin Cities (5%)
  • PGA National (4%)
  • TPC Sawgrass (3%)
  • TPC River Highlands (3%)

Model Top 20 

1. Hideki Matsuyama
2. Tony Finau
3. Sungjae Im
4. Sepp Straka
5. Gary Woodland
6. Lucas Glover
7. Emiliano Grillo
8. Mark Hubbard
9. Aaron Rai
10. Austin Eckroat
11. Chez Reavie
12. Eric Cole
13. Justin Thomas
14. Akshay Bhatia
15. Adam Hadwin
16. Peter Kuest
17. Nate Lashley
18. Cameron Davis
19. Carson Young
20. Christiaan Bezuidenhout