By Andy Lack

The 2023 Travelers Championship Final Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership 

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. Already this season, the Houston Open featured a 2.5 stroke wave advantage! As soon as we flipped the calendar to January, weather played a massive role in the Sony Open as well. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

I actually believe there might be a potential weaver edge to be found this week. In terms of wind, Thursday on a whole looks far more brutal than Friday, with fairly consistent gusts throughout the day between 14 and 22 mph. The afternoon on Thursday doesn’t really get windier than the morning, and there’s a small patch of rain midday that could see afternoon golfers benefit from softer conditions, particularly on Friday morning when it’s dead calm. I would actually much rather have guys on the PM/AM side of the draw this week. Friday morning will be absolutely perfect conditions too, whereas the afternoon wave might have to play through a bit of rain on Friday. The rain on Friday looks a lot heavier than the patch of rain on Thursday. I’ve got 70% of my player pool, including my big guys at the top in the PM/AM wave.

Core Four

• Rory McIlroy, $10,900 (Projected ownership: 13.2%) (PM/AM): When I ran my model and started diving into the top of the board, I made the decision that I would simply go all in on the player that was the lowest owned. From a statistical, course fit, and gut standpoint, I wasn’t seeing a massive difference between Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, and Patrick Cantlay. There was not one player in that group that I liked overwhelmingly more than the other, nor one player that I felt strongly about fading. I currently have McIlroy as the lowest owned player of this group, which does surprise me. I really thought I would be writing about Jon Rahm in this spot. My assumption is that the “mentally drained” narrative that has kept Rory’s ownership in check at the last four tournaments he’s played in has taken hold once again. He’s finished top-10 in all four of those tournaments, and if someone finds a way to actually quantify how a player truly feels after a tournament, I’m all ears. Rory is still somehow the lowest owned of the elite players this week, despite outplaying every single one of them at Los Angeles Country Club. Rory gained over 13.5 strokes ball-striking for just the eighth time in a decade long plus career. Woof. If he hits the ball 50% worse than he did at the U.S. Open, there’s still a decent chance he contends at TPC River Highlands. I’ll be the first to agree that last week had to be tough on him. It was another crushing defeat and more scar tissue for the game’s most frustratingly lovable bridesmaid. Yet the reality of the situation is that we have an opportunity to capitalize on an unquantifiable narrative that is actually having a real effect on ownership. Given their course history, if Rory finished sixth instead of second, he would be higher owned than Jon Rahm. Hell, Patrick Cantlay may be the highest owned of the bunch, and he finished 14th doing it all with his putter. I’m wrong all the time, but I think people have it backwards this week.

• Tony Finau, $9,700 (Projected ownership: 9.5%) (PM/AM): Similar to Rory, Tony Finau frustrated the hell out of me last week with a ho-hum T32 finish at the U.S. Open. Yet this isn’t a game where we can hold grudges, and Finau is once again under-owned this week. For what it’s worth, I love the way that the six-time PGA Tour winner hit the ball at Los Angeles Country Club, gaining over five strokes on approach. Now he heads back east to a part of the country and green surface that he has had a tremendous amount of success on. Finau’s been hit or miss at TPC River Highlands, with three missed cuts and four top-25 finishes, but I absolutely believe this is a golf course that he can win at. I expect it to be easy this week, and while the two Bent-grass courses that he won at over the summer last year, TPC Twin Cities and Detroit Golf Club, are certainly imperfect comps, this was still the time of the year (and the type of greens) that he really started to heat up on. We know that Finau can take it low, and I love that he ranks third in this field in opportunities gained. There will not be a lack of opportunity for Finau to take advantage of this golf course, both off the tee, and with his world class iron play. I love the way his short game has looked recently as well, which is an underrated component to success at TPC River Highlands. Ultimately, Finau is coming off a week where he gained over five strokes on approach and finally returning to the type of golf course where he set the world on fire last year. 10ish percent is a steal.

• Shane Lowry, $8,200 (Projected ownership: 9.2%) (PM/AM): I haven’t heard a peep on Shane Lowry this week, which is just the way I like it. Despite coming off a rock solid 20th-place finish at the U.S. Open last week where he gained strokes in all four major categories, the Northern Irishman appears to be completely flying under the radar this week. I actually really like the way that Lowry’s game is trending. He’s gained strokes off the tee in seven straight starts, and he’s gained strokes on approach in nine straight starts. The former Open champion has hit the ball incredibly well all season, the putter simply hasn’t been able to cooperate. With that being said, Lowry’s putting performance on the tricky Bent-grass greens of Los Angeles Country Club was his best of the season. While he typically has a reputation for being more a tough course player, I would point to his performance at Harbour Town as a worthy reference point that Lowry is perfectly well suited for mid scoring affairs on short Pete Dye courses. Ultimately, I just think there’s a tremendous amount of value on Lowry this week based on ownership and price. I still believe he’s a far better player at this stage than Sahith Theegala, who is $100 more expensive and coming in at double the ownership. Pivots aren’t always this straightforward. Here’s one to take advantage of.

• Matt Kuchar, $7,500 (Projected ownership: 3.7%) (PM/AM): Once again, the number one rule of DFS is not to hold grudges, so despite the fact that Kuchar really let me down this week, I’m going right back to well. Despite missing the cut at the US Open, Kuchar still gained a stroke ball-striking and finally drove the ball well for the first time in five starts. I absolutely had higher hopes for Kuchar at Los Angeles Country Club and am kicking myself for thinking it would be firmer. In any right, the Georgia Tech product has still had a remarkably strong season that includes seven top-20 finishes and four top-10s in 15 starts. While he has surprisingly decided to skip this event over the last couple of years, it’s historically been a good spot for him and remains one of the only courses on the PGA Tour schedule he really feels he can snag another win at. Winning is certainly not the objectively at this price and ownership, and I will gladly snag another top-20, which Kuchar has quietly done in nearly 50% of his starts this season.

Chalk Report

• $10K: There are five bonafide studs in this range, but Scottie Scheffler stands alone. I still have the number one player in the world coming in at around 22%, but Patrick Cantlay is hot on his tail, and hovering around 21%. I don’t see either as irresponsible numbers, and while Scheffler and Cantlay will certainly be the two highest owned players on the slate, I don’t have Jon Rahm or Xander Schauffele all that far behind. 17% feels about right for both the recent Masters winner and the defending champion. I have Rory McIlroy coming in as the lowest owned player in this range at around 13.5%, certainly a palatable number for the World No. 3 coming off another heartbreaking defeat in a major championship. As alluded to in my core four section, I see strong arguments for all five of these players. Xander is certainly the weakest talent of the bunch, but possesses some of the best course history and is the defending champion. Cantlay is less of a surefire ball-striker than Scheffler, Rahm, and Rory, but still remains the best of that group on Bent-grass greens and on shorter, positional courses. Scheffler, Rahm, and Rory do tend to lose a bit of their ball-striking on a course like TPC River Highlands that does not place as much of an emphasis on being long and straight, but they remain the best three players in the game and are entirely capable of a win any time they tee it up (regardless of course fit.) Play who you want, I’m not strongly opposed or in favor to any of the five, yet McIlroy is undeniably the best value. 

• $9K: The two players that I have emerging as the highest owned are Tommy Fleetwood and Collin Morikawa, who are both coming off strong weekends at the U.S. Open and are undeniable course fits at TPC River Highlands due to their driving accuracy and short iron play. I have both coming in at around 17%, and I’m happy to pass on both. Viktor Hovland should not be all that far behind. I know he disappointed some at Los Angeles Country Club, but this agronomy should be far better for his short game. I have the young Norwegian coming in at 16%. Rickie Fowler will be next at a modest 13.5%, followed by Matt Fitzpatrick at 12%, Tony Finau at 9.5%, and Wyndham Clark at 7%. If you have any interest in fading the “mentally drained” narrative, you are not just getting a sizable discount on McIlroy, but Clark will be the lowest owned player above $9K. I still find it hard to group a motivated McIlroy coming off another crushing defeat into the same bucket as Clark, who was seen partying at Delilah in Los Angeles on Sunday night, and eating dinner in Soho on Tuesday night. I have zero evidence he’s even arrived in Connecticut yet as I write this on Wednesday morning, and I wouldn’t be in love with this golf course for him even if he didn’t just win the U.S. Open.

• $8K: As is often the case in $8K range, there are some wonderful opportunities here. Let’s start with the players that are drawing ownership first. I have Tom Kim as the highest owned player in this range at 17.5%, followed by Si Woo Kim at 16%. The quick spike in popularity of Tom feels like a bit of an overreaction to one hot nine hole stretch at the U.S. Open. I actually far prefer Si Woo. I have Hideki Matsuyama up next at around 15.5%. I certainly understand the love and am a huge fan of Hideki this week, but this ownership surprised me on a player that is often overlooked. I have Sahith Theegala also coming in at 13.5%, who I’m honestly not a huge fan of this week. After that, Max Homa (8.5%), Justin Thomas (4.5%), Sungjae Im (6.5%), Cameron Young (8%), Jason Day (6%), and Shane Lowry (9%) all present a ton of opportunity. I’m fairly confident that at least one or two from this group will finish top-10 this week. I’m rolling with Homa, Sungjae and Lowry as my favorites, but there is a case for all six of them (yes, including Justin Thomas, who I can unfortunately no longer recommend in good faith.)

• $7K: The big challenges in this range are Russell Henley and Austin Eckroat. I have Henley as much as the next guy, but I currently have him coming in around 19%, which is simply shocking. I don’t understand what’s driving this steam. Yes, he played well at the U.S. Open, and he certainly has had some decent finishes at TPC River Highlands, but I’m still surprised that some of that Henley love isn’t getting re-distribution to “local guy” Keegan Bradley. Austin Eckroat is playing well and could be a future stud, but I’m not sure this is the week to hop on as low $7K chalk. I have my doubts. Other players that should cross 10% include Adam Scott (10%), Harris English (13.5%), Corey Conners (12.5%), and Brian Harman (11%). I’d rank those guys as follows: Conners, Scott, Harman, English. I’m just not there on the English U.S. Open overreaction either. Other than that, I would say that Denny McCarthy, Aaron Rai, and Eric Cole are worth monitoring in the high single digits.

• $6K: The only player down here that we really need to worry about is Mark Hubbard, who I have coming in at 9%. That’s pretty damn high for a player in the $6K, and I would have to feel fairly confident in his chances to roll him out at that ownership. The only other players with a legitimate chance to cross 5% are Chez Reavie and Carson Young. I’ve never really understood the Carson Young thing, and am convinced that some people must think they are playing a mis-priced Cameron Young. If you played him at 20% at the Canadian Open though, you should probably keep riding! J.J. Spaun, Doug Shim, Kevin Streelman, and Dylan Wu are a few other names that might be slightly higher owned than their peers.