By Andy Lack

The 2023 U.S. Open Open Final Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership 

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. Already this season, the Houston Open featured a 2.5 stroke wave advantage! As soon as we flipped the calendar to January, weather played a massive role in the Sony Open as well. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

I would expect very consistent weather throughout the week and zero to very little of a wave advantage to emerge in either direction.

Core Four

• Patrick Cantlay, $10,300 (Projected ownership: 13.1%): Quite simply, it’s put up or shut up time for Patrick Cantlay at majors, and if he does not show up at this one, I’d be fairly shocked. It’s not just because I believe that Los Angeles Country Club is a perfect fit for his game, I also feel that Cantlay is a bonafide top-five player on the planet who is simply too good to not start seriously contending in these. Let’s not conflate Cantlay’s major record to that of Max Homa or Sam Burns. With 12 top-25s in 25 majors, the eight-time PGA Tour winner has played well in the biggest events. Of course, he gets held to a much higher standard than that because of how dominant he often looks on the PGA Tour, which is how it should be. Yet in terms of his age and career trajectory, the former UCLA standout is still right on schedule. He should be disappointed he hasn’t been more involved in a serious way on Sundays, but there’s absolutely nothing in his data that suggests it isn’t only a matter of time. To me, it’s far more unlikely that he never wins a major than it is that he wins multiple, but I might be higher on his talent and mindset than others. From unquantifiable standpoint, I love his patience and strategy for major championships, particularly U.S. Opens, and from a quantifiable standpoint, his numbers are off the charts. Cantlay ranks second in this field in recent off the tee from, 23rd in recent approach play, ninth in proximity 200 yards plus, first in Bent-grass putting, seventh in putting from five to ten feet, sixth on firm golf courses, and 13th in avoiding doubles or worse. The 32-year-old has previously cited Los Angeles Country Club as a personal favorite of his, and he is one of the lone players in this field with a Los Angeles connection that has actually gotten considerable reps on this golf course, an advantage he should have this week over other elites such as Viktor Hovland, Rory McIlroy, and Brooks Koepka, who are here for the first time. I understand the fatigue and distaste for a player this tedious and mundane, but if Los Angeles Country Club isn’t the spot for him, I don’t know what is.

• Rory McIlroy, $9,900 (Projected Ownership: 16.6%): For the second major in a row, expectations are quelled on Rory McIlroy’s chances. I hope this is a trend that continues, but I imagine it won’t be after he contends this week. No, Rory isn’t sneaking up on anyone at Los Angeles Country Club, particularly because he is under-priced, but I’m surprised a player of his caliber is this low at an event he has three top-10s in a row at. My biggest concern with McIlroy on this golf course is his driving accuracy and discipline. I don’t know if I will ever feel comfortable about his shot selection until he gets a veteran caddie on the bag, but I do feel a lot better about his driving accuracy than I did coming out of Oak Hill. After what looked like a two way miss at the Masters, Rory has the driver on a string once again. He looked unbelievable off the tee at both Muirfield Village and Oakdale, both golf courses that actually penalize wide misses (unlike Oak Hill, where he was able to get away with murder.) If McIlroy can avoid the big miss and play something that resembles disciplined golf (maybe playing with Brooks the first two days can rub off on him), he will be there this week. There is zero doubt in my mind. The Northern Irishman remains a top-10 long iron player in this field, and I completely trust his short game on firm golf courses. These are good putting surfaces for Rory too, and Bent-grass has always been my preferred green type for him. He’s had a tremendous amount of success at firm Masters’, and McIlroy ranks fifth in this field on a firm golf courses over the last three years. A ninth at Chambers Bay and an eighth at Southern Hills have also flown under the radar. I don’t know how many more times we will see a sub-10K Rory McIlroy that isn’t chalk at a major, and you’d be fool not to at least consider him.

• Justin Thomas, $8,700 (Projected ownership: 7.8%): With how much shaper the DFS community has gotten in recent years, I’m a bit shocked there isn’t more buy-back on Justin Thomas at this price point. If this ownership is real, which I’m fairly certain it is, JT is likely my favorite play on the entire slate. Has this been a disappointing season for him? Unequivocally. Does he deserve to be in the $8K range? Absolutely. Is it rational to believe he’s incapable of playing elite golf this week? That’s where I draw the line. I wish more people looked at DraftKings like the stock market, because that’s essentially what it is. When you buy and sell a golfer is often more important than who you are buying or selling. I love Viktor Hovland as much as the next guy, but just know that you’re buying him at his highest price. If you think Hovland is Apple and he’s just as good as Rahm, Brooks, and Scheffler, than by all means play him. Yet that is how you have to feel about him if you are going to buy at this price point. There’s only so much higher he can go. Justin Thomas is now at the point, from a DraftKings standpoint, where he does not even have to remotely come close to winning this tournament to be a successful play. In fact, at this price and ownership, I’d gladly sign for a T13. For what it’s worth, as awful as JT has been this season, he’s still finished in the top-25 of 75% of his tournaments this year! His price continues to deflate because he’s not contending, but he’s at a price now where he no longer needs to contend to pay off his position! Would I love for him to contend? Absolutely. Do I believe it’s possible? Without a doubt. Does he have top-five upside? Probably more than any other player in this price range. How did he perform the last time he was on a wide, Bermuda based golf course with tons of short grass and Bent-grass putting surfaces? He won. A ninth at Erin Hills (where he did contend) also leaves me feeling incredibly confident about his chances on a firm U.S. Open with a lot of width. No, Erin Hills is not my favorite comp for Los Angeles Country Club. Southern Hills is imperfect as well, but a perfect comp for this George Thomas masterpiece does not exist, and the proof is still in the pudding with Justin Thomas on firm golf courses. For what it’s worth, his other major championship victory also came at a firm and fiery Bermuda based course. I’m not sure there is a player in this field that I feel more confident in chipping off of tight Bermuda lies than Justin Thomas, and even in a down year, his short game has remained world class. Yes, there have been rumblings that he’s battling some sort of injury. My retort to that is that A.) there is zero proof of that B.) When golfers are playing tournaments (and Justin Thomas has not altered his schedule at all all year), we must assume that they are in good enough physical health to play C.) Those “concerns” are baked into his ownership (over-baked in my opinion.) If you look at DFS the way I do, this is a no brainer.

• Mito Pereira, $7,200 (Projected ownership: 14.1%): You’ll never see me write up a player at this price point with this high ownership, in fact, Mito Pereira may be the highest owned player below $7.5 that has ever been in my pool. Yet when the situation calls for it, the situation calls for it. I believe that there tends to more mis-pricing in major championships than regular events, and my numbers suggest that this one of the biggest mis-prices in recent memory. No, Mito Pereira is not a free square, and in fact, the only reason why I feel comfortable playing him is because I am avoiding so much chalk in every other range. Yet I simply believe that his ball-striking ability is elite. Not just elite for his price, elite in general. The list of players that have hit the ball better than Mito Pereira at the first two majors are Brooks Koepka and Scottie Scheffler. That’s it. The Chilean has gained over 7.5 strokes ball-striking at both Augusta National and Oak Hill, and the golf course he is heading to this week might actually be the best fit for his game. Mito is plenty long off the tee, but one of his biggest weapons is his driving accuracy, and I actually believe that precision off the tee is more important at Los Angeles Country Club than it was at Augusta National and Oak Hill. Pereira ranks fifth in this field in good drive percentage on firm golf courses, and his pathway to gaining strokes off the tee here is clearer than the previous two majors, which were far more distance dependent. The iron play is just as much of an asset as his driver, and I completely trust his around the green play as well. Pereira ranks 12th around the green on firm golf courses, and he performed admirably on another major championship venue with the exact same agronomy as Los Angeles Country Club. Yes, there are absolutely shades of Southern Hills in L.A.C.C. (at the very least, from an agronomical standpoint). My numbers identifying this much of a pricing discrepancy does not happen very often, but when it does, I take advantage at all costs. My exposure will be high.

Chalk Report

• $10K: I thought there were some real opportunities in this range a little over 24 hours ago, but ownership has really started to flatten out. Incredible opportunities on Jon Rahm and Patrick Cantlay appear somewhat less appealing now, while cooler heads have prevailed on what was expected to be a very chalky Viktor Hovland. Scottie Scheffler will still lead the charge in this range at very comfortable 22%. Don’t get me wrong, he’s certainly a scary fade this week and undeniably the best ball-striker in the field, but I far prefer the discount on Jon Rahm. On Monday night, it looked right Rahm might somehow be in the 13% range, but as expected, he’s been ticking closer and closer towards 17%. I still firmly believe that Rahm is a better player than Scheffler this week when considering the price and ownership discount, but there is no longer a sizable gap between the two. As expected, Brooks has ticked up as well, but there is enough of a narrative that the fire in his belly was quelled from his victory at Oak Hill, and he should still come in around 15%– a fair number for a five-time major champion that should fit this course beautifully. Cantlay remains my favorite in this range, but my hopes of getting him in the 10% zone were fleeting. 13%, still an extremely palatable number, is where Cantlay should settle. I had initially expected Hovland to come in close to 20%, but now I have him trending closer to 16 or 17%. I’m not quite sure what is driving that, as I am the only content provider I’m aware of that has been adamantly opposed to the young Norwegian.

• $9K: Always a fun and plentiful range in majors, there are some great options here this week. I’ll start at the top and work my way down. I do believe that Rory McIlroy should be in the low tens, and the fact that he is $9.9K won’t do any favors for his ownership. Still, there is enough a narrative that he can never cross the finish line in majors and that there’s “a lot on his mind” right now. My strong aversion to both of those talking points has already been fleshed out. Xander Schauffele is an anomaly in the sense that he will be scoffed at as an outright wager, but is one of the most popular plays on the DraftKings slate at around 19.5%. We rarely ever see that, as most fantasy players like to bet those that they play. If you’re playing a 19.5% Xander at $9.6K, shouldn’t you firmly be in the camp that he has a very good chance to win? I certainly am, but I have a hard time suggesting that securing even a slight discount on a player of McIlroy’s status feels like a more sensible option. I seem to be much lower on Max Homa than consensus this week, but is consensus even that high? It felt like the Los Angeles native would have a ton of steam heading into the week, but ownership does not seem to be reflecting that. I have Homa coming in at a modest 9.5%. I thought there was a chance that Collin Morikawa would come in even lower than the 10.5% that I have him projected at, but it unfortunately appears that most are able to understand the difference between a back spasm and a back injury. I don’t have a single bad word to say about Jordan Spieth, and if you feel extremely confident in him, 15.5% isn’t even that egregious of an ownership number to swallow. Yes, I would imagine that Scheffler-Spieth, or Xander-Spieth is a fairly popular start, but I would not call the three-time major winner bad chalk. I continue to warm on Matt Fitzpatrick as the week progresses, and some sharp money in the matchup market appears to agree. 9.5% on the defending champion is more than fair, and I’m leaning closer and closer to subbing him in for Cam Smith as the Australian’s ownership continues to creep up. I still have the reigning Open champion at a very fair 13%, which has trended up from the 10% that I was looking at on Monday.

• $8K: The only player in this range that I would tread lightly with is Tyrrell Hatton, who I do have coming in at 18%. That might continue to get lower, as I had thought on Monday that he could come is as high as 20%. I have a tremendous amount of respect for Hatton’s game, but similar to Rory, if he was just $200 more expensive and in the $9K range, I would expect him to be at least a few points lower. I have no way to justify a play on Hatton at nearly double the ownership than Tony Finau, who has a far better Augusta record, and major record in general. While I do believe that this U.S. Open will be dramatically different from years past, the fiery Englishmen’s record on USGA setups leaves a lot to be desired. Once we get past a chalky Hatton, the $8K range appears to be a bit of a dead-zone again. Hideki Matsuyama will get ownership, but I still do not believe that 14.5% on the former Masters champion is in any way irresponsible, and I do love the course fit. I’ve already outlined my love for Justin Thomas this week, and I firmly believe he’s the biggest steal on the slate. Thomas, Shane Lowry, Sungjae Im, Dustin Johnson, Sam Burns, Jason Day, and Cameron Young, will all come in between 5 and 11%, with Johnson on the higher end, and Burns on the lower end. My favorites of that group are Thomas, Sungjae, and Day, and I would hope that folks take their chances on at least two of these options.

• $7K: A beefy one as usual, and one that is not immune to groupthink. Tommy Fleetwood (17%), Justin Rose (18%), Bryson DeChambeau (14.5%), Rickie Fowler (17.5%), Adam Scott (15.0%), Wyndham Clark (13.5%), and Mito Pereira (14%) all provide reason for concern. Now, I do believe that many of these players are legitimately under-priced, and I am also certain of the fact that at least two of these options will be play very well. My only advice would be to play no more than two or three of them. I’m rolling with Rose and Mito and fading the other five, and I feel fairly comfortable eating that chalk with the leverage I can create at the top of the board. The biggest head scratchers to me on the entire slate are Clark and Bryson. Fleetwood, Fowler, and Scott I understand, and I can’t really go out of my way to disparage any of the three. Yet Clark and Bryson I really struggle with. I would also be very cautious of a 12% Si Woo Kim and a 10.5% Denny McCarthy. Both Si Woo and Denny actually rated out quite well for me and both certainly flash as value, but I would rather just splurge on Mito as my rule-breaker this week. Life’s too short to play multiple guys above 10% in the low sevens. Gary Woodland and Russell Henley should both also find themselves around eight or nine percent, and I honestly have no problem with either. I’m particularly keen on Woodland this week. I’m sure that will go well.

• $6K: It does get barren down here quickly, and I do not see any clear mis-prices or any one player emerging as overwhelming chalk this week. I’m incredibly high on Matt Kuchar, and him and Patrick Rodgers are likely the only players in the $6K range that will make my pool. Yet I’m fading Scheffler, Rahm, Brooks, and Hovland, with a heavy variety of players in the low nines and eights, so I have no real desire to go dumpster diving. A few players that will pick up more ownership than their peers include Patrick Rodgers, Sam Stevens, and Sam Bennett, but I would be fairly surprised if any of them came in higher than six percent. Choose your own adventure down here!