By Andy Lack

2023 Valero Texas Open Final Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership 

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. Already this season, the Houston Open featured a 2.5 stroke wave advantage! As soon as we flipped the calendar to January, weather played a massive role in the Sony Open as well. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

There’s a lot going on here, and anyone that tells you they definitely know how the weather is going to play out this week is lying to you, especially now with rain in the mix. When I first looked at the weather on Tuesday morning, it appeared as if there would be an edge for those playing on Thursday morning and Friday afternoon, but I’m not sure I’m willing to suggest that anymore. Yes, Friday afternoon still appears to be the best time on the course from a wind standpoint, but there’s also the potential that those players will be on the course during some light rain. Also, who can say if there will be any delays because of the rain on Thursday, which has the potential to throw all tee times off track. The one thing that I would recommend is that when there is this much of a volatile forecast with wind and rain and a golf course that is generally exposed to the elements, this creates a higher chances that one wave (which one is anyone’s guess) could emerge with a huge edge. Thus, I am not opposed to the idea of still stacking your lineups in either direction, and playing some all AM/PM, some PM/AM, and some mixed.

Core 4

• Davis Riley, $9,500 (AM/PM) (Projected ownership: 18.4%): I was prepared to load up on Davis Riley when I thought there would be a clear advantage to the AM/PM players, as he is actually the highest priced player in the field to catch that side of the draw. If forced to choose, I still would give a slight advantage to the AM/PM players, which helped me make my selections in the $9K range. Kuchar and Riley were the two players that I bet this week from an outright perspective and they are the two players above $9K in the other side of the draw. I will also of course be utilizing Hideki, but I endorse a more balanced approach for my single entry. Prior to a group stage exit at the WGC Match Play, Riley finished top-20 at both the Valspar Championship and Arnold Palmer Invitational, both longer Bermuda courses that place an emphasis on mid to long iron play and keeping the ball in play off the tee. The University of Alabama alumnus remains one of the best overall iron players in this field and checks nearly every box I am looking for this week from a statistical standpoint.

• Matt Kuchar, $9,200 (AM/PM) (Projected ownership: 18.2%): Matt Kuchar will never represent a flashy commodity, but I like his draw, his ownership is actually manageable given the lack of options, his course history is outstanding, and he’s quietly playing some excellent golf. From a statistical standpoint, I have Kuchar as the third strongest play in this field behind only Hatton and Hideki, and I still believe that his value is fair at $9,200 given that he does not necessarily have to win at that price and I would gladly take a third top-10 of the season. Coming off a top-10 at the elevated Genesis Invitational, Kuchar now is tasked with one of the weakest fields of the season, on a golf course he has already had a tremendous amount of success on. Kuchar and Riley can pair together nicely, or each can be placed with Hideki as a second man in, which is how I would chose to build this week.

• Cameron Davis, $8,300 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 11.2%): Here we go again! I almost had Matt Wallace in this spot when I was more inclined to play an AM/PM edge, but with weather seemingly more confusing, I’ll take the price and ownership discount on the streaky Australian. Davis continues to check all the boxes for me statistically, and sixth-place finish displays that after a string of missed cuts while he was battling illness, he’s finally feeling healthy again. One of the first men out of the field for Augusta, the motivation, course fit, and palatable ownership is all there for the former Rocket Mortgage Classic winner.

• Kevin Streelman, $7,000 (AM/PM) (Projected ownership: 4.9%): I am quite high this week on Kevin Streelman as a low owned option that could surprise this week. Streelman boasts one of the stronger course history’s in this entire field and enters this week on the heels of a 27th-place finish at the Valspar Championship where he gained strokes in both ball-striking categories, including over four on approach. There are a bevy of appealing options down here that I have some interest in including Eric Cole, Erik Van Rooyen, Will Gordon, Nate Lashley, David Lingmerth, Joseph Bramlett, and Ryan Palmer, but Streelman feels like the most surefire combination of course fit, price, and low ownership. I’ll gladly take my chances that the two-time PGA Tour winner can work his way into the mix come Sunday afternoon in San Antonio.

Ownership

• $10K: With only four players in this range, ownership is conglomerating around Tyrrell Hatton and Rickie Fowler, who both should clear 20% handily. Hatton is a bit more manageable and should come in around 21%, whereas Fowler will battle Si Woo Kim for the highest owned player on the slate, and come in closer to 25%. Corey Conners should come in at a palatable 13.5%, whereas absolutely no one is playing Hideki Matusyama. I understand the withdrawal risks as well, but with Hideki at 7% and Fowler at 25%, is Rickie nearly four times more likely to outperform Hideki this week?

• $9K: I was surprised to see the groupthink surrounding Si Woo Kim, but here we are. I love Si Woo as much as the next person, but 26% is the highest number I’ve seen on a player in a full field event in quite some time. Chris Kirk should also clear 20%, and find himself in that Hatton range in the low 20s. After that, I have Davis Riley and Matt Kuchar coming in nearly identically in the high teens, whereas the best bet for leverage can be found with Ryan Fox and Taylor Montgomery, who I both have in the low double digits.

• $8K: Typically a dead zone, the $8K range this week is full of interesting options that are still garnering their fare share of ownership. Coming off a win at the Corales Punta Cana Championship, Matt Wallace certainly is not sneaking up on anyone at 15%. Nor is a 14% Ben Griffin, Nicolai Hojgaard, or a 15% Thomas Detry. This group of four may all find themselves between 13 and 16% come lock on Thursday morning. J.J. Spaun is expected to clear double digits as well, but should come in closer to 12 to 14%. Cam Davis should settle just a touch below at 10 to 12%. The leverage to be had in this range is with Alex Noren (6.5%), Christian Bezuidenhout (6.3%), and Adam Schenk (7.7%)

• $7K: There are certainly a few names that are coming in at irresponsible numbers, something the DFS community has seemingly been able to avoid in this range in prior weeks. Nick Taylor and Brendon Todd, two players I very much like, are both coming in at upwards of 15%. I have them both at a relatively even 16%, with some room for change in either direction. Once we get past Taylor and Todd, Aaron Rai also has the potential to clear 15%, another surprise. That generally covers the only three names that are truly coming in at numbers worth worrying about. Amongst players that could cross the low double digits threshold are Andrew Putnam, Alex Smalley, Byeong Hun An, and Will Gordon.

• $6K: As is often the case down here in a full field event, choose your own adventure. There are no clear and obvious mis-prices, so I will just list the names that should catch a bit more ownership than their peers: Mark Hubbard, Lucas Glover, Kevin Chappell, Ryan Gerard, Michael Kim, Scott Piercy. I would still be fairly shocked if any of those names cleared 7.5%.

Best of luck this week – AL