? Last Week’s Optimal Lineup
Scottie Scheffler: $12,800 | 138.5 PTS
Matt Fitzpatrick: $8,200 | 122.5 PTS
Brian Harman: $7,900 | 122.5 PTS
Wyndham Clark: $9,700 | 118.5 PTS
Sam Ryder: $5,600 | 97.0 PTS
Nate Lashley: $5,300 | 96.0 PTS
TOTAL: $49,500 | 695.0 PTS
? Oh How The Turntables…
Just over a week ago, Scottie Scheffler couldn’t win and was frustrated to the point where his head was about to explode.
He has a measly (kidding) 7 wins in 50 starts dating back to the start of 2022. That’s a disgusting 14% win rate which is basically second to only Tiger Woods.
Now he’s cashed in on 9 of 52, bumping his win rate to 17.3% and firmly supplanting him as the best player in the world.
Quickly how things change, huh? Or maybe nothing was ever wrong!
? Perception Is Reality
It’s nearly impossible to put into perspective how good Scottie Scheffler has been. At least, in golf terms.
So let’s try something new. Below is the 2023 NFL Passing Leaders (per game) adjusted in the same way that reflects Scottie Scheffler’s strokes gained numbers since January 1st, 2023 to the rest of the golf.
If Tua Tagovailoa had the same gap in passing yards as Scheffler has in strokes gained, he would have thrown for 914.8 yards per game last season. Let that sink in.
He would have thrown for 343 yards per game more than the next closest quarterback — Jared Goff.
The most yards ever averaged in a season by any quarterback is 342.3 by both Peyton Manning (2013) and Drew Brees (2011).
So the gap between QB1 and QB2 would have been the greatest passing yard season of all-time.
That is where we are at with Scottie Scheffler.
h/t to Kyle Porter for giving me the idea of comparing Scottie to things outside of golf.
? Enter The Snake Pit
We’ve seen a few golfers play the role of “Snakecharmer” and tame the Copperhead Course in their careers. Here are the best players in this field at Innisbrook (min 16 rounds).
? Sammy Three Rounds
Sam Burns has played 27 rounds in 2024 and gained 1.25 strokes/rd in the process. It’s the 6th best mark of any golfer with at least 20 rounds played on the PGA TOUR.
He has lost 1+ stroke to the field just five times this year, but when he loses, he loses big. The other problem is that his four worst rounds are all on Sundays.
He’s routinely put together three good rounds each week with one loop going sideways.
I don’t know what any of this “means” but my interpretation is that Burns is really close to putting it all together. And now he gets a confidence boost heading to a place where he’s been excellent.
☠️ Trending In The Right Direction…
I’m making a first round investment in two golfers that I believe will have good weeks — Tony Finau and Nick Taylor.
Tail or Fade: https://bit.ly/3IMwGZL
Finau R1 Strokes: 69.5 (Lower) ⬇️
Tony has started to fix the massive short-game hole in his game by gaining 0.796 strokes and 2.228 strokes in that facet over the last two weeks. His approach play has been elite all year and I expect him to bounce back after one of the worst driving weeks of his career at TPC Sawgrass.
Nick Taylor R1 Strokes: 70.5 (Lower) ⬇️
The Copperhead Course rewards strong iron play, which has been the blueprint for Taylor this year. He gained 3.6 strokes on approach last week and hasn’t lost in that category since The Sentry.
Tail or Fade: https://bit.ly/3IMwGZL
?The Newest Flusher
Christiaan Bezuidenhout is my current selection for “Most Improved of 2024”. His current calendar year is spectacular, gaining 1.50 strokes/rd with 0.89 of those coming from his approach play.
That is a full stroke per round improvement over his 2023 (+0.49) while becoming one of the better second-shot players on the TOUR.
The best part is that he hasn’t lost his DNA, as one of the more talented putters on the globe. He’s actually improved from +0.20/round in 2023 to +0.58 in 2024. That turned him from a Top 50 putter to a Top 25 putter.
The breakout is happening right in front of our eyes.
? Good, But Not Too Good
This is one of the most fascinating O&D weeks that we’ve had so far. Check out my options below.
Above is a screenshot from the PoolGenius tool that I consulted on and I recommend you check out.
Note that Xander Schauffele is my best player available but he’s too good to use at an event this small. I’m also in a pickle because I’ve used Sam Burns and Justin Thomas.
That leaves me with Jordan Spieth, Cameron Young and Brian Harman as my best options. There is a case to be made for all three but Harman is my likely selection. He’s playing well (off a T2) and there is plenty of a reward for keeping the ball in-play off-the-tee this week. He’s been great since coming to Florida and hopefully he can continue to putt confidently.
Again, this is specific to me and my league. You should get this tool yourself and enter your pool details and previous selections so that the results are custom for you.
