2023 Mexico Open Course Breakdown: Vidanta Vallarta
The Basics
- Course: Vidanta Vallarta
- Location: Vallarta, Mexico
- Designer: Greg Norman
- Length: Par 71; 7,456 yards
- Hazards: 6 Lakes, water comes into play on 11 different holes
- Fairways: Paspalum
- Rough: Paspalum
- Greens: Paspalum
The Mexico Open is the first national open on the 2023 PGA Tour schedule, followed of course by the Canadian Open and U.S. Open later in the summer. First played 79 years ago in 1944 at the Club de Golf Chapultepec, the Mexico Open was a PGA Tour Latinoamerica event until last year, where it became an official event on the PGA Tour, with a purse of 7.3 million dollars and 500 FedEx Cup points up for grabs. The inaugural PGA Tour event was won by Jon Rahm by one stroke over Tony Finau, Kurt Kitayama, and Brandon Wu.
After a successful 2022 tournament, Vidanta Vallarta will return as the host venue. The long par 71 Greg Norman design has Paspalum fairways and greens, a very slow and sticky surface that we generally run into often in Mexico, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and other tropical areas because it is a grass that can withstand heat very well. Vidanta has over 100 bunkers, which is unsurprising given the fact that Norman tends to over-bunker his courses. Water comes into play on holes 1, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 14, 15, and 17, and it did appear to play a factor in this tournament last year, as Vidanta ranked 9th out of 38 courses in penalty strokes per round. Vidanta has four par fives, ranging from 548 to 637 yards, and five par threes ranging from 174 to 226 yards. Five par fours measure over 450 yards and three par fours measure over 500 yards. At first glance, this is obviously a fairly long golf course, even by PGA Tour standards. It has a couple short par threes and one drivable par four, but there are a ton of very long holes. We are also not getting as much elevation as Chapultepec, and Paspalum fairways do not produce a ton of rollout. This course plays long.
For resort guests, Vidanta Vallarta plays as a par 73, but the PGA Tour changed the course to a par 71 for tournament play. Hole four is a converted par five that now plays as a 520 yard par four, and hole 16 was also switched from a par five to play as a 505 yard par four. Nine holes were lengthened to tip the course out to 7,456 yards. Despite the beefy scorecard, Vidanta Vallarta still played as the 11th-easiest course on the PGA Tour last season.
Jon Rahm won the debut event as a 3/1 favorite at 17-under par by one stroke over Tony Finau, Kurt Kitayama, and Brandon Wu. Of the top four finishers, at least (Brandon Wu is a bit more volatile) entered this event as one of the longest drivers and most elite long iron players in this field. One year is far too small of a sample size to make any broad generalizations about a definitive roadmap to success on this golf course, but through year one, players who hit the ball a long way off the tee and are great mid- to long-iron players appear to have a sizable advantage. There is no better illustration of Vidanta Vallarta than that it features the longest set of par fours and fives on the PGA Tour last year, but the par fours ranked 18th out of 38 courses in terms of difficulty, and the par fives ranked 28th out of 38 courses in difficulty. Vidanta Vallarta is a ton of empty calories, and it is a textbook example of the fact that length is not what makes PGA Tour courses difficult (whispers: firm and fast conditions). The greens are relatively flat and the greenside surrounds are among the most benign on the entire PGA Tour, so while players will have a long iron in their hands often, the consequence of misses is far from great. For this reason, I will be looking to target the longest players in this field who are also elite long iron players and have experienced success before on Paspalum and longer, tropical golf courses. Let’s dive into the stats.
Stats
- Off the Tee
- Last year, 18.4% of strokes gained came off the tee, which is comfortably greater than the Tour average of 15.2%.
- Driving accuracy at Vidanta Vallarta last year was 62.7%, and the fairways measured 40.4 yards on average, making these the sixth-widest fairways on the PGA Tour.
- Last year, Vidanta ranked 28th out of 38 courses in strokes gained off the tee difficulty. It ranked 34th out of 38 courses in missed fairway penalty. Players can absolutely bomb away here with little consequence for a big miss.
- Vidanta ranked 35th out of 38 courses in rough penalty, which is essentially non-existent, 11th out of 38 courses in non-rough penalty (which often means a water ball), and eighth out of 38 courses in fraction of missed fairways that result in a penalty stroke. There is some trouble that you can find yourself in on this golf course, but it takes a fairly big miss.
- Vidanta might be the most distance biased course on the PGA Tour, which is not to say that shorter players cannot compete, but running through the player profiles of those who rose to the top of the leaderboard last year, combined with the staggering amount of approach shots from over 200 yards and the fact that Vidanta featured the longest set of par fours and par fives, allow me to believe that players who hit the ball a long way have a massive leg up at Vidanta Vallarta. It should not come as a surprise that Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, Kurt Kitayama, and Cameron Champ, four of the absolute longest players in the field, all finished in the top six. The longest players off the tee in this field are Brandon Matthews, Cameron Champ, Matthias Schmid, Wyndham Clark, Kyle Westmoreland, Gary Woodland, Trevor Cone, Luke List, Nicolai Hojgaard, and Byeong Hun An.
- Approach
- Last year, 36.7% of strokes gained came on approach, which is greater than the Tour average of 34.7%.
- Greens in regulation percentage at Vidanta Vallarta last year was 67.9%, which is right around the Tour average (21st out of 38 courses).
- Last year, Vidanta Vallarta ranked 30th out of 38 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty. It ranked 35th out of 38 courses in approach difficulty inside 150 yards, and 24th out of 38 courses in approach difficulty from greater than 150 yards
- What generally occurs when we get very wide fairways is that the emphasis falls squarely on the second shot, so mid- to long-iron play is massive on this course. Five par threes measure over 170 yards, five par fours measure over 450 yards, three par fours measure over 500 yards, and at least three of the par fives are reachable. This tells us that there is going to be an extremely large plurality of shots over 175 yards.
- The proximity buckets that we want to be looking at on this course are without a doubt 175 yards-plus, as every single bucket below 175 yards featured a below-average amount of approach shots. 17.4% of approach shots came from 175-200 yards, and a whopping 44.1% of approach shots came from over 200 yards, including a remarkable 17.5% of shots coming from over 250 yards, which can easily be explained by the long par fives and a softer golf course. Jon Rahm is far and away the best in the world from 225 yards-plus, so it makes complete sense that he was able to tactically pick this course apart with his driving ability and long iron play. The best long iron players in this field are Gary Woodland, Jon Rahm, Luke List, Emiliano Grillo, Tommy Gainey, Augusto Nunez, Davis Riley, Matthias Schmid, Wyndham Clark, and Kevin Roy.
- Around the Green
- Last year, 13.6% of strokes gained came around the green, which is lower than the Tour average of 14.4%.
- Last year, Vidanta Vallarta ranked dead last out of 38 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty.
- It ranked 34th out of 38 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty from the fairway, 38th out of 38 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty from the rough, and 31st out of 38 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty from the bunkers.
- Paspalum is an incredibly easy surface to chip from because the ball really sits up. The greens at Vidanta Vallarta are rather large and flat, and I would not expect players to have to rely on their short game often here. If they are having to scramble, it’s unlikely they are in contention to win the event. Slow greens also make chipping easier. Just ask Viktor Hovland, the “Prince of Paspalum,” how much easier it is to chip when you do not have to worry as much about speed and undulation. Slow greens are going to remove an element of touch from the equation. I would not recommend valuing short game this week at all, outside of bunker play, just because the sheer volume of bunkers on this golf course. The best bunker players in this field are Byeong Hun An, S.H. Kim, Robby Shelton, Patrick Rodgers, Andrew Putnam, Maverick McNealy, Austin Cook, Richard S. Johnson, William McGirt, and D.A. Points.
- Putting
- Last year, 31.3% of strokes gained came with the flat-stick, which is comfortably lower than the Tour average of 35.5%.
- Last year, Vidanta Vallarta ranked 16th out of 38 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty. It ranked 11th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty from inside five feet, 15th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty from five to 15 feet, and 25th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty from 15 feet-plus. Fairly standard stuff.
- I’ve played a lot of golf on slow Paspalum, and I personally hate it. I’m used to playing on firm and fast Bent-grass, which is what I love and am used to. So when I get on a slow and sticky Paspalum course, I struggle to adapt. You almost have to change your putting style. If you are more of a die putter, it always feels like you have to hit the putt really hard. I’m personally not a huge fan, but I know that others feel that putting on slow greens is far easier than putting on fast greens. Ultimately, it’s about personal preference. I think the reason why we see more bad putters roll it well on Paspalum is less about speed and probably more about the fact that most Paspalum greens are pretty flat. Still, Augusta has the fastest and most undulating greens on the PGA Tour, and we see poor putters perform well there all the time. The theory behind that is that Augusta’s greens are so hard that even the best putters struggle. Paspalum supports an opposite theory that essentially creates the same result of leveling the playing field between strong and poor putters. A lot of it still comes down to personal preference, so I was personally focused on identified the players that perform the best on both Paspalum, as well as slower greens in general. Slower green courses include Kapalua, most of the tropical events. The best slow green putters in this field are Harry Higgs, Maverick McNealy, Peter Malnati, Harry Hall, Hank Lebioda, Lanto Griffin, Jon Rahm, Jonas Blixt, Kevin Tway, and S.H. Kim. The best Paspalum putters in this field are Nate Lashley, Alex Smalley, Brandon Wu, David Lipsky, Adam Long, Brice Garnett, Chris Stroud, Austin Eckroat, Nicolas Echavarria, and Harry Hall.
- Scoring Stats
- I have a fairly heavy weight this week on both par five scoring and birdies or better gained. The par fives remain incredibly important on this course as rare birdie opportunities mixed in with a ton of long par threes and par fours. The best par five scorers in this field are Jon Rahm, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Patrick Rodgers, Matt Wallace, Kyle Westmoreland, Eric Cole, Garrick Higgo, Beau Hossler, and Patton Kizzire.
- This is an easy enough course as well that I want to identify the players that can go low and make birdies in bunches. The most consistent birdie makers in this field are Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, Wyndham Clark, Patrick Rodgers, Akshay Bhatia, Ben Martin, Matt Wallace, Byeong Hun An, Maverick McNealy, and Brent Grant.
- Comp Courses/Course History
- Coco Beach, host of the Puerto Rico Open, and Corales Punta Cana, host of the Corales Punta Cana Championship are both courses over 7,400 yards, wide open off the tee, very visually similar, have tons of bunkers, and are Paspalum from tee to green. Despite the designer connection, I would not compare Vidanta Vallarta to Mayakoba, which is less than 7,000 yards, is really narrow, takes driver out of players’ hands, and favors accuracy over distance. Vidanta Vallarta is a resort course that was designed for 15 handicaps, and all that they can do to make a pro tournament work here is jack up the length. There is some water and obviously a lot of sand on this course, but that’s not really what challenges PGA Tour pros. The Stadium Course at PGA West has water on every hole and a ton of bunkers too, and 15 handicaps would find the course impossible, but pros routinely shoot 63 there. I would think of Vidanta Vallarta the same way.
- Corales has also been won the past five years at 18 under, while Coco Beach is usually between 15 and 20 under par. Both simulate similar scoring conditions to what we saw last year at Vidanta Vallarta. The best players in this field at Corales have been Matt Wallace, Ben Martin, Wyndham Clark, Alex Smalley, Nicolai Hojgaard, Austin Eckroat, Kelly Kraft, Nate Lashley, Brice Garnett, and David Lipsky. The best players in this field at Coco Beach have been Nate Lashley, Nicolas Echavarria, Brandon Wu, Akshay Bhatia, Ryan Brehm, Chris Stroud, Emiliano Grillo, Aaron Baddeley, Brice Garnett, and Andrew Putnam.
- Of course, I will give a bump to players who played well at this course last year, but I would not be afraid of first-timers either. Vidanta Vallarta is about as straightforward and un-nuanced of a course as they come. What you see is what you get. The players in this field that finished top-25 at this event last year are Jon Rahm, Brandon Wu, Tony Finau, Davis Riley, Alex Smalley, David Lipsky, Cameron Champ, Patrick Rodgers, Martin Trainer, Nate Lashley, Grayson Murray, Chez Reavie, Jonathan Byrd, Satoshi Kodaira, Kelly Kraft, Stephan Jaeger, Peter Malnati, Adam Long, Andrew Novak, Aaron Rai, Gary Woodland, and Michael Gligic.
- The only other course that I would add to the mix after watching play last year is Kapalua, a golf course that Jon Rahm has also won at. Kapalua is wide, driver heavy, and features a great deal of long iron approach shots. There are far more elevation changes and undulation than Vidanta Vallarta, but the green speeds are similar and the general skill-set requirements of driving distance and long-iron play also hold true. The best players in this field at Kapalua are Jon Rahm, Brandon Wu, Tony Finau, Davis Riley, Alex Smalley, David Lipsky, Cameron Champ, Patrick Rodgers, Nate Lashley, and Martin Trainer.
- If you want to look at some more long-ish, wide open, easy golf courses, Detroit Golf Club, TPC Deere Run, and TPC Craig Ranch are all fairly easy driver-heavy courses as well.
Model
- Off the Tee (12%)
- Driving Distance (12%)
- Approach (32%)
- Strokes Gained Approach (17%)
- Long-term Proximity 175-200 yards (3%)
- Long-term Proximity 200 yards-plus (12%)
- Around the Green (7%)
- Sand Saves (7%)
- Putting (14%)
- Strokes Gained Putting: Paspalum (7%)
- Strokes Gained Putting: Slow Greens (7%)
- Scoring Stats (17%)
- Par 5 Scoring (7%)
- Birdies or Better Gained (10%)
- Comp Courses/Course History (18%)
- Vidanta Vallarta (6%)
- Corales Punta Cana (4%)
- Coco Beach (4%)
- Kapalua (4%)
Top 20
- Jon Rahm
- Wyndham Clark
- Tony Finau
- Patrick Rodgers
- Akshay Bhatia
- Gary Woodland
- Davis Riley
- Eric Cole
- Nick Hardy
- Joseph Bramlett
- Alex Smalley
- Matt Wallace
- Will Gordon
- Nicolai Hojgaard
- Ben Martin
- Vincent Norrman
- Nate Lashley
- Matthias Schmid
- Byeong Hun An
- Kevin Roy
