By Andy Lack

The 2023 Wells Fargo Championship Final Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership 

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. Already this season, the Houston Open featured a 2.5 stroke wave advantage! As soon as we flipped the calendar to January, weather played a massive role in the Sony Open as well. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

Really not much to gleam from the weather this week in Charlotte, as this is not a golf course that generally gets decimated by wind. Both mornings feature their biggest gusts between 9:00 and 10:00 AM, before calming down in the afternoon. I do not envision any sizable advantage for either wave, play who you want!

Core Four

• Xander Schauffele, $10,700 (Projected ownership: 16.8%): I wouldn’t exactly say that Xander Schauffele has been lost in the shuffle this week, but he is attracting significantly less ownership than Rory McIlroy and Patrick Cantlay. The case for Xander at this golf course is incredibly simple. He remains a top-five long iron player in the world, he has markedly improved his Bermuda putting, and is the number one player in this field on long golf golf courses. He’s coming off back-to-back top-five finishes at the Zurich Classic and the Heritage, and in his last stroke play event he gained 2.6 strokes off the tee and 7.4 strokes on approach. He has quietly put together four top-10 finishes in a row, although scientists will still be studying his 10th at the Masters years from now because I cannot remember one shot he hit there this year. This is quite simply a sound option on a player with an incredibly high floor and an extremely palatable ownership number, and I appreciate the discount as a result of being sandwiched between Rory and Cantlay.

• Justin Thomas, $8,900 (Projected ownership: 17.3%): I’ve already waxed poetically about Justin Thomas this week on multiple platforms, discussing how I simply have a feeling in my bones that he is going to show up this week in Charlotte. Add in the fact that the 15-time PGA TOUR winner is criminally under-priced and I would have likely played him at any ownership number. The fact that Thomas will be sub-20% is a gift to me, and I actually prefer him to the far less proven and higher owned options around him, Viktor Hovland and Cameron Young. Justin Thomas is still an elite player, and although this has been his worst season since 2016, he’s still finished top-25 in seven of nine starts this year. The irons have not been up to his standards, and this has been his worst iron year since 2015, but they are incrementally improving and he gained an incredibly solid 3.8 on approach in his last start. The vibes should be strong for Thomas at the site of his first major championship victory, and from an unquantifiable standpoint, I simply believe that he is the most pissed off elite golfer right now and that it’s time to start playing some capital G golf. I’m sounding the alarm bells if he does not show up this week, as I could not envision a more perfect golf course for the two-time major winner to regain form on.

• Corey Conners, $7,900 (Projected ownership: 10.8%): I’ll be honest, at this price tag I thought that Corey Conners would be a bit more popular than he is. I know that he does not fit the traditional profile of a bomber off the tee, but Conners is so deadly accurate that he is still one of the biggest gainers off the tee on long golf courses. TPC San Antonio is sneaky long with a fairly large plurality of approach shots from over 175 yards, and Conners has tamed other longer courses such as Bay Hill, the Country Club of Jackson, and Augusta National with ease. Picking up a second win at the Valero recently should have been a worthy confidence booster, but it’s still time to rise to the occasion in an event with most of the world’s best players. The Canadian certainly does not have to win at this price, and I would gladly sign for a top-10, which I still find to be a fairly reasonable outcome.

• Luke List, $6,900 (Projected ownership: 3.6%): You aren’t going to find many players priced below $7K this week that rank both top-15 in driving distance and long iron play, but Luke List checks both of those boxes with flying colors. It’s remarkable how little that he gets out of his elite ball-striking, as he is the number two player in this field off the tee on long golf courses. It should not come as a surprise that he already boasts two top-10 finishes at Quail Hollow, including a sixth-place last year where he gained 6.7 strokes ball-striking. Of course, the reason why he is priced this low, and the proverbial elephant in the room is that he remains one of the worst putters on Tour. I spoke to his caddie on a podcast during the fall swing, who proclaimed that List was really turning a corner with his flat-stick. Unfortunately that has not come to fruition, and frankly, List hasn’t done a thing since his big victory at Torrey Pines. Still, this is a perfect course fit for a player that is now incredibly cheap and has shown that if by some chance the putter clicks, he has the ball-striking chops to close the door in a strong field. There truly aren’t any other names priced down here that  can say the same, so I’ll gladly take my chances that List can channel just a little bit of his Torrey Pines magic and eek out a top-20.

Chalk Report

• $10K: There are four strong options in this range all separated by between $200 and $400. Despite many looking right past him in the betting markets, Rory McIlroy is still the safest bet to be the highest owned player on the slate. I have him coming in around 24.5%. There’s a fairly nice distribution this week amongst the elite players, as I currently do not have a single player crossing 25%. Next up will be Patrick Cantlay, who I have coming in around 22.5%. He will be close to McIlroy, but I do not see him passing him. After that, I have both Xander Schauffele and Tony Finau in the 14 to 18% range, with Xander on the higher end, and Finau on the lower end. Finau has been carrying little to zero buzz this week because it’s entirely inconceivable that he wins back to back events. Oh wait, he did that less than a year ago!

• $9K: A fairly loaded range filled with awesome options! Viktor Hovland has been the talk of the town this week and an extremely popular outright bet. It should come as no surprise that he leads the way in ownership as well. The young Norwegian should fall between 23 and 25% ownership and rival McIlroy as the highest owned player on the slate. Hovland is far and away the most popular option, and as much I like his chances this week, it does feel as if some groupthink is starting to take hold. I don’t have another player in this range above 17%! By any definition, Hovland is chalk, and a decision will need to be made. You can likely gather what direction I am leaning. After Hovland, it’s extremely bunched in this range. In fact, I have the six other players all ranging between 12 and 17%. I would put Jordan Spieth and Sungjae Im closer to 17%, Matt Fitzpatrick and Max Homa closer to 12%, and Jason Day and Collin Morikawa somewhere in the middle.

• $8K: Here’s where ownership really starts to open up. Cameron Young will be firmly in the McIlroy and Hovland zone, falling somewhere between 20 and 24%. If I was going to eat the chalk on one of those three, I would choose Hovland. I’m not as high on Young than market this week. After we get past the pride of Rochester, the criminally underpriced Justin Thomas is up next at around 16 to 18%. I think that he should be 20 plus at this price, so I really do not mind eating it with the two-time major winner this week for the reasons that I outlined above. Tommy Fleetwood, Rickie Fowler, Tyrrell Hatton, and Sam Burns will all be in the 10 to 15% zone. I actually like all four of these players, but if forced to choose, I would rock with Fleetwood and Fowler. It’s a shame that Rickie is priced so highly both on DraftKings and the betting market. Sahith Theegala and Tom Kim will be in the high single digits, and I am actually a big fan of Kim this week as a leverage play. Shane Lowry has been completely cast aside and will be coming in at a quiet 7%. Brian Harman will be the lowest owned player in this range at five to seven percent, but for good reason as he is over-priced and has zero business being more expensive than Corey Conners.

• $7K: Don’t count on this happening every week, but ownership is incredibly spread out across a very full $7K range this week. I currently do not have a single player eclipsing 15% ownership, which is very rare! There are certainly a number of players that feel like locks to clear double digits however. I would put Corey Conners, Keith Mitchell, Wyndham Clark, Keegan Bradley, and Taylor Moore into this category. Conners and Clark are the best options of that group in my opinion. A few other players in this range that have a chance to cross 10% include Emiliano Grillo, Gary Woodland, Patrick Rodgers, and Samuel Stevens. I like Grillo, Woodland, and Rodgers, but a very hard pass on Stevens for me. Beware of a 5% Cameron Davis. Just kidding. No seriously.

• $6K: As is often the case, there’s very little to worry about down here as it regards to ownership. The Alejandro Tosti wave seems to be continuing a bit, but he will still not garner half the attention he was receiving Mexico. Other players that will garner more attention than their peers include Luke List, Joseph Bramlett, Will Gordon, Eric Cole, and Dylan Wu. I would not be concerned about any of them crossing six or seven perfect however, choose your own adventure!